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D2Football.com Columnists Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

November 3rd, 2009

Amazingly, the 2009 season that we all anticipated so eagerly is now about to draw to a close. For some within the GLIAC, the results of the campaign will leave a bad taste in their mouths. For others, a vast improvement over what they've done in previous years provides a feeling of hope and promise for 2010 and the autumns of the future. And for a select few, the opportunity to continue this season for at least one more week is a very real possibility. I promised I'd take a stab at the playoff picture heading into this weekend, so here goes.

Here's how the Regional Seedings look heading into the play of November 7:

1 - Minnesota State - (10-0)
2 - Minnesota-Duluth - (9-1)
3 - Grand Valley - (9-1)
4 - Nebraska-Kearney - (9-1)
5 - Saginaw Valley - (8-2)
6 - Hillsdale - (8-2)
7 - Bemidji State - (6-3)
8 - Wayne State (NE) - (7-3)
9 - Findlay - (7-3)
10 - Winona State - (7-3)

For those who are unaware, the Top Six from these seedings make it into the playoff field. So, just being on the above list "isn't quite enough". With that said, the only list that truly matters is the one that comes out on Sunday afternoon. Here's what my gut tells me as to who'll be on it and in the Top Six.

Who's In

Even with losses, Minnesota State, UMD and Grand Valley are likely all safe. Obviously, no one wants to chance it and where teams get seeded is important when it comes to byes, home games, and the like. Winning is still a priority for each so they can have at least one home game during the playoffs, not to mention the week off for the top two seeds is always a coveted plus. All three of these clubs play teams with winning records on Saturday, with both of the Minnesota teams having to take to the road to do so. With that in mind, each will see their strength of schedule (SOS) improve so a loss would not likely hurt any of them far enough to be left out of the field.

Who's Looking Good

At this point, I'd say Saginaw Valley is pretty safe. Their SOS is helped by having played/defeated Cal back in Week One. They do play a Ferris club this weekend that has been struggling mightily, so SV's SOS will take a hit. Nevertheless, I think it's simple for the Cards: Win and you're in.

Another club I feel is pretty safe is Nebraska-Kearney. They play at a .500 Mesa State on Saturday, which will actually improve their SOS slightly as their rating in that category isn't especially favorable. With that said, a loss likely won't hurt them enough to fall out of the Top Six. If it does, as long as they don't drop out of the Top Eight they can still enter the field via Earned Access. In short, Earned Access will place a team in the playoff field if they are ranked seventh or eighth in the seedings and no other members of their conference are in the seedings above them. They would essentially "bump" whoever is the lowest-seeded team in the Top Six that is not their own conference's lone representative in the Top Six (it was as painful to write that stuff as I'm sure it is for you to read and try to interpret it). I hope this is something that DOES NOT happen, and if UNK simply handles their business the point is moot. If they should lose, the question then becomes whether or not they finish above eighth in the final seedings. Their SOS is one of the weaker ones in the region, so it's not inconceivable. With all of that said, the Lopers are just like SV in my opinion: Win and they're in.

Who's on the Edge

Another team with a "weakish" SOS rating is Hillsdale. They play Tiffin this weekend, so that rating isn't going to get any better. With that said, the Chargers are on the verge of posting a 9-2 finish, which would include winning five straight to close out the season. Among the umpteen criteria the committee can use is what a team does over their last four games, and few have been as hot or impressive as the Chargers in that stretch. While it's not inconceivable that Hillsdale could wind up on the outside looking in, my gut tells me that if they win Saturday their chances are solid. Only six teams in the region can finish 9-2 or better at this point and Hillsdale is one of them.

Who Needs Help

There are seven teams that have an opportunity to finish with only three losses: Bemidji State, Wayne State (NE), Findlay, Winona State, Northwood, Colorado School of Mines, and Augustana. In all honesty, while Bemidji, Findlay, Wayne, and Winona all have SOS ratings in the Top 35 nationally, my gut tells me that only Wayne and Winona have legitimate shots at making the field. Each has a top flight SOS, and Winona's will jump a good amount as they host UMD this Saturday - and there's no telling what a marquis win like that in the last week of the season would do for them in the minds of the committee. Much like everyone else, the best/only thing that each of these clubs can do for their case is to win. Additionally, each of these outfits will also have to hope that every one else presently along side them loses, along with someone above them on the list.

What Will Happen

If the Top Six all win, I'm pretty confident that the Top Five teams as they stand today will all make the field. Their seeds may or may not shift a bit, but each of those clubs will make the bracket. The only question mark I have is Hillsdale. Even with a victory, their SOS rating will be one of the lower ones in the region. At that point, it will be up to the committee to figure out whether the resume of one of the 8-3 clubs is impressive enough to overcome the fact that they lost one more game than the Chargers did. Whether or not that might happen is beyond me.

If one or more of the Top Six lose, then all bets are off. Of the teams I mentioned, only UMD and Winona (playing each other) have tilts against another team in the playoff mix so it's more than plausible that nine of the Top Ten could win and keep things in line with what I've described.

Keep it Real, Folks

One thing that we all need to keep in mind here is that I'm pretty much pulling this stuff out of thin air. Are my assertions somewhat educated? Certainly. With that said, I'm not an expert on this, nor do I claim to be. I'm not a member of the committee, nor do I claim to be. While anyone can read the Championship Handbook to learn about how the process works and the criteria that are used, what the committee will decide and how they arrive at it is not published. Each Regional Committee is allowed to apply the criteria in whichever way they deem the most appropriate. All I'm giving at this point is my "best guess".

There are a lot of folks out there who insist that the majority of the selection process revolves around math (I used to be one of them). While data and numbers are absolutely integral to the process, there is no "formula" that is used. I guess the best way to describe the process is this: "Objective data is interpreted and applied to a subjective methodology to obtain an objective result." In other words, the numbers provide a base line to determine who the "candidates" are for the field, but ultimately it's up to the committee to interpret the data and come up with what they feel are the best six teams to compete in the playoffs. It's with knowing this for a fact that I can repeat what I said above: I'm just giving you my best guess on this.

Are there flaws with how it works? One could always argue that. With that said, my opinion is that while nearly anything could be deemed "in need of improvement", the way this is done is pretty good. It's not all numbers, and it's not all subjective opinions. My personal contention is that one or the other is a bad way to go, and at least we have a "mix" of the two today. If improvement is needed, at least improvement on today's model would be (in my mind) working toward making things better as opposed to "fixing something that is broken".

OK. Enough rhetoric and conjecture. One more week of the GLIAC slate remains. Let's get to it.

Saturday, October 31

Northwood 38, Wayne State 24

314 yards and 3 TD's from Joique Bell weren't enough to overcome a Warrior defense that allowed TD's to NU on six of its first seven possessions, including a one-play, "Hail Mary" drive to end the first half. Much like Bell, The Woodbone was grinding up turf as five different NU ball carriers scored TD's and Anthony Brandon posted 107 yards.

Ashland 19, Indianapolis 3

Both offenses failed to take advantage of struggling defenses as the two clubs failed to COMBINE for 400 yards of total offense. Yikes. The punters and kickers ruled the day, and Carlin Isles's return of the opening kickoff for a TD proved to be all that the Eagles would need to win on Senior Day.

Michigan Tech 21, Tiffin 14

Despite falling behind early and suffering through three turnovers, Tech had a pretty good handle on this one throughout. The defense had its best outing of the season, and Marvin Atkins rushed for 101 yards to lead the offense.

Hillsdale 59, Ferris 14

As expected, the Bulldogs were simply overmatched as Hillsdale scored via the air, the ground, on special teams, and on defense to race out to a 52-0 edge after three quarters. The entire travel squad saw action for the Chargers as they continue to hold up their end of the deal in trying to make the playoffs.

Grand Valley 31, Northern Michigan 19

The Wildcats entered the game with the league's second best defense against the run. Grand Valley seemed unimpressed, as Jimmy Berezik (213 yards) and P.T. Gates (106 yards, TD) led a Laker attack that racked up 356 rushing yards and more than 500 yards of total offense. Despite those yardage numbers, scoring on each of their first four possessions for a 20-0 edge, and never punting during the game, the Lakers kept the 'Cats in the mix in the second half with a few turnovers and their oft-nagging inability to finish drives (Justin Trumble's three FG's all came from 29 yards or closer). In the end, GV's ability to control the ball and slow down the Northern ground attack (only 41 yards) proved too much for the 'Cats to overcome as the Lakers finished off a contest that they pretty well controlled for the most part.

Saginaw Valley 24, Findlay 16

The first half of this one lacked a certain "entertainment value", as a lot of punting and jockeying for field position took place. The Oilers held a 7-3 edge at the break, but the Cardinals put up TD's on three of their first four second half possessions to take control of the affair. Both defenses played great, limiting the opposing offense to less than 300 yards on the day. The turning point came in late in the third quarter, with the game in a 10-10 deadlock. A Findlay punt went awry, and SV took over at the Oiler 21 yard line. The Cards used the short field to take a seven point advantage, and then forced a Findlay three-and-out that gave way to a 10 play, 79-yard march to put the game out of reach.

Saturday, November 7

Ferris State (0-9, 1-9) at #10 Saginaw Valley (7-2, 8-2)

The injury-riddled Bulldogs close things out with a visit to a Cardinal outfit that, as far as I can tell, controls its playoff destiny. It's the second straight week that Ferris faces a team looking to cement its playoff resume, which is a tough way to end what has been a really trying season in Big Rapids.

Ferris Keys:
- Find some Big Plays - No easy task against the league's third-rated defense. With that said, the Dawgs have struggled with offensive consistency this year so whatever they can do to get some points and put some pressure on SV is a must.
- Make your Own Breaks - SV still turns the ball over a fair amount, so the FSU defense needs to get some takeaways and either score or give the offense some short fields.

Saginaw Valley Keys:
- No Letdown - It might be tempting and/or easy for the Cards just to count this game as "in the bag". That's just the kind of opening that Ferris will look for. The Bulldogs would like nothing more than to spoil the "Card party" and end their season with a good feeling.
- Protect the Ball - Despite the fact that he's led the club to eight victories this year, QB Chuck Dowdell still has his issues with turning the ball over. The Cardinals can't give Ferris any breaks or glimmers of hope.

Prediction: While this is football and anything can happen, it's pretty hard for me to see a scenario (outside of the Cardinals losing focus) that has Ferris going into Wickes and coming out with a win. I like Saginaw to finish things off and (in all likelihood) head to the playoffs for the first time since 2005. Saginaw 48, Ferris 13

Ashland (5-4, 5-5) at Findlay (6-3, 7-3)

This is one of the oldest rivalries in the GLIAC, as these two will line-up for the fortieth time since they first did so back in 1924. The Eagles are trying to finish with a winning record for a season that got away from them after a 3-1 start. The Oilers need a win to complete what is already their best campaign since 2002, and to keep alive whatever playoff hopes they still have.

Ashland Keys:
- Where's the O - The Eagles' calling card over the last few seasons has been an explosive offense. Each of the last two weeks, AU's output has been inexplicably low. I mean, Billy Cundiff has had individual quarters over his career with more passing yards than he's put up in the last two games combined. AU needs to find a way to move the ball or this one could be over early.
- Digging the D - Not sure where it came from, but the Eagle D was great last week sacking UIndy QB Rob Doyle eight times and hold the 'Hounds to only 16 net yards rushing. If AU can come up with a similar effort in this one, they'll certainly improve their chances.

Findlay Keys:
- Finish - After starting 6-1, the Oilers have dropped two of three and were awful close to having it be three straight when Northern was in town a couple of weeks ago. UF needs to dial it in and finish a great season with a great effort.
- Kick'em while He's Down - AU QB Billy Cundiff has had a pair of efforts over the last couple of weeks that, again, I can hardly believe. The Oilers have a solid pass rush and need to use it to keep the AU offense off balance AND off the field.

Prediction: It's hard not to favor Findlay in this one. They've been more consistent offensively, and more physical defensively for the better part of the year. With that said, I have a sneaking suspicion that Ashland will be ready for this one. I'll stick with Findlay and their ground game at home, but I wouldn't be surprised if this one ends up being close. Findlay 23, Ashland 17.

Indianapolis (3-6, 4-6) at Northern Michigan (5-4, 5-4)

After racing out to a 5-1 (and nearly 6-0) start the Wildcats have struggled of late, dropping three straight games to a few of the league's better outfits. Regardless, NMU is certainly improved this year and has to be pleased with the opportunity to post its first winning record since 2002. They've got a good chance to get that done against a UIndy club that was down a bit this year.

UIndy Keys:
- Score Points - On more than one occasion this season, UIndy has actually had a surprising output/advantage statistically, and yet they don't find a way to put points on the board and wind up losing. Ashland last week is a perfect example. If the 'Hounds get chances to score, they need to cash in.
- Tough Up-Front - Despite being in the top half of the league in defending the run, the 'Hounds will be facing an NMU rushing offense that has been awful good this year. UIndy must not let the 'Cats make any headway in establishing their ground attack.

Northern Keys:
- Back to Basics - Play physical defense, run the ball, use the home crowd. These are all things that Northern did well during their five-game winning streak. They need to get back to what was working for them.
- A bit more Carter - The NMU QB is plenty talented, and I'm not entirely sure why the 'Cats haven't thrown the ball more. It's the last game of the year, so there's no sense in not letting loose.

Prediction: UIndy's three league wins came against teams who have won a combined three games all season. When they've played any of the mid-level or higher teams, they've had their struggles. Add in a massive road trip and a Northern club hungry to finish off a good season on the right note and I think you have a Wildcat romp. Northern 41, UIndy 14.

Northwood (6-3, 6-3) at Michigan Tech (2-7, 2-7)

The Woodies head north riding a three game winning streak. The Woodbone has been a bit more ground-centric of late after we saw the 'Wolves throw the ball a fair amount during the early stages of the year. As for Tech, they wind down a disappointing season that saw them lose a couple of close ones early, and lose their four-year starting QB to injury as well.

Northwood Keys:
- Get after Heim - Despite the progress the MTU QB has made since taking over as the starter, he's still shown that he can be forced into mistakes. NU is tenth in the league against the pass, and if they let the Huskies get anything going throwing the ball it could be a problem. Forcing turnovers and getting the defense off the field should be a big initiative.
- Runnin', not Gunnin' - While they weren't "pass-happy", the NU aerial attack was doing some major damage during the first half of he season. Of late, we've seen much more of the "old school" Woodbone with massive ground totals and paltry passing numbers. If it's working, there's no sense in changing. The Huskies are only so-so against the run.

Tech Keys:
- No Mo - The 'Wolves got things going the way they liked against Wayne last week, and the Warriors never recovered. Tech can't fall into that same trap. They need to get a few early stops, make NU uncomfortable, and not allow them to create/gain any momentum.
- Heim Time - As I mentioned, Northwood is near the bottom of the league in defending the pass. MTU needs to expose that secondary for some big plays and big chunks of yardage.

Prediction: Northwood seems to be rolling right now, and I like them to keep it going in this one. Northwood 30, Tech 18.

Tiffin (0-9, 0-10) at #21 Hillsdale (7-2, 8-2)

This one's pretty simple: Hillsdale can't afford to lose if they want any shot at making the playoffs. While Tiffin has not quit on the season and has shown signs of improvement, it'll be a tall order for them to go in to Muddy Waters on Senior Day and swipe Chargers' playoff hopes away from them.

Tiffin Keys:
- Slow the Run - The Dragons are last in the league against the run, and they're facing a Hillsdale ground attack that has been nearly unstoppable over the last month. If HC can move the ball well with the running game, they'll simply play keep away and end things early. TU needs possessions, and must get stops in order to have them.
- Cash In - TU actually won the turnover battle last week, but couldn't create much in the way of points as a result. If HC opens the door for you to stay in the game, walking through is a must.

Hillsdale Keys:
- Just like last Week - No fooling around with this one. Yes, you have the opponent overmatched. Getting on the field and winning the game is still required. The Chargers can not forget their objective.
- Block it Up - Tiffin's last in the league in rushing defense and total defense. Hillsdale has (arguably) the best offensive line in the league. Making holes for Panizzi and protecting Weatherhead so both can get out of the game early is something I'm sure Coach Otterbein would love to see happen.

Prediction: Move along, folks. Nothing to see here. Hillsdale 55, Tiffin 10.

Wayne State (5-4, 6-4) at #6 Grand Valley (8-1, 9-1)

Several times this year, we had slates of games that featured all of the teams in the top half of the standings facing off against each other. No such luck for the finale, as this contest is the only one in the league this weekend that features two teams with winning records.

Grand Valley locked up at least a share of their fifth consecutive GLIAC crown last week, and look to make that title out-right with a win. In addition, GV is hoping for some help in creeping their way up to the Top Two in the region so they can enjoy the first round bye that comes along with such a position.

On the other side of things is a Wayne State team that has lost three of four after starting the year 5-1. Of course, it's pretty hard to talk about the Warriors without mentioning Joique Bell. The senior RB has already surpassed the 2,000 yard mark this season, the second time in his career he has done so. He leads the nation in rushing at 201 yards per game, and will face the league's best run-stopping unit. While the Lakers have never really been able to "stop" Bell in his previous three games against GV, for the most part the results of the games were not all that close. This will be Bell's and his fellow seniors' first trip to The Shipyard, as the game GV hosted in the series two years ago was played at Fifth/Third Ball Park.

Wayne State Keys:
- Defense must stay off the Field - That's how the Lakers have slowed down the last few offensive units they've faced. Nice, long drives that chew up clock and keep the opposing playmakers on the sideline. The Warriors need to use a similar strategy in this one. WSU is last in the league in defending the pass, something Brad Iciek and his mates will no doubt look to exploit. The Warriors must find a way to get stops.
- Get Joique some Help - While the kid can, conceivably, do darn near everything by himself the Warriors typically have shown a higher rate of success when they don't force him to be their sole offensive option. Mickey Mohner and the receivers need to make at least a few plays to keep the GV defense honest.

Grand Valley Keys:
- Be ready on the Play-Action - Clubs put so much into trying to stop Bell that they can easily get sucked into the play action passing of Wayne State. Making it even more difficult to stop is that the Warriors use it so infrequently, what with Bell usually causing all of the ruckus he does on the ground. It's hard to know for sure when it's coming. Keeping Bell out of the end zone (he's scored 30 times already this season) is hard enough, so GV needs to avoid getting beat deep by any of Wayne's receivers. While this isn't like defending an option attack, it still takes discipline to contain Wayne's offense. The Warriors are (logically) first in the league in rushing, but they are last in throwing the ball. As I mentioned above, they try and leverage this by burning defenses when they get all eleven men up into the box. GV's D needs to stay home and take care of their assignments.
- Take what's There - Again, WSU's pass defense is the softest in the league. Not helping things is that their run defense seems to be struggling progressively more each week. Brad Iciek thrives on getting his charges into the right play in order to exploit the weakness of a given defensive set. I know that keeping the ball out of Bell's hands is a priority, but if the Laker drives are short the result is still effective if each series makes it to the end zone. Scoring points wins games, possession time doesn't.

Prediction: Despite the Lakers reputation on defense, they are still not immune to what Wayne's senior phenom can do toting the rock. In his three games against Grand Valley Bell's lowest output is 131 yards, so GV will have its hands full. With all of that said, the Lakers know that they need another win to solidify their playoff resume and ensure that their worst-case scenario is a number three seed and hosting a first round playoff game. In addition, while Bell has been able to put up some good numbers against GV defenses the closest his club has ever finished a game to the Lakers is 14 points. Bell will get his yards, but look for Grand Valley to win the day and cement their fifth straight, out-right GLIAC Championship. Grand Valley 39, Wayne State 22.

Player Profile

This week, we got a chance to chat with Ferris State DB Sonny Favot. The senior from South Lyon, MI has 56 tackles on the year and has also forced a couple of turnovers. The Bulldogs are preparing for their trip East to take on Saginaw Valley.

What is your major?
Sports Management

What's your favorite class?
Issues in Physical Education - Everyday a different student teaches the class.

Other than your home field, what are your favorite and least favorite places to play in the GLIAC and why?
My favorite place to play is GVSU. The crowd there is great, the noise and fans make for an exciting atmosphere. My least favorite place to play is NMU. I still don't like their turf.

How is life on the road in the GLIAC? How do you pass the time on the long trips?
There are a few long road trips for us. To pass the time they put on a movie. I just sleep or listen to music and eat healthy snacks.

Who is the hardest hitter on your team? How about in the GLIAC?
On my team, it's (OLB) Matt Ryan or (LB) Alex Brajak. In the GLIAC I'm not totally sure.

How many text messages do you get/send in a day?
Twenty or so. I'd rather talk on the phone.

What's your favorite food?
Definitely Qdoba Mexican Grill. Chicken Queso Burrito, especially on double-point Tuesday.

What's your favorite TV Show?
I don't watch TV. It makes you fat and weak.

What influenced your decision to choose Ferris State/playing in Division II?
Ferris State had a variety of programs that I was interested in.

What do you hope to do after graduation?
After graduation I hope stop paying rent and to start working in my field immediately.

Thanks, Sonny. I need to find a Qdoba that gives double points any day. I'd love that!

GLIAC Trivia

Last week, I wanted to know who held the record at Findlay for receiving yards in a single season. That distinction is presently held by Derek Hutchinson, who tallied 1,018 yards during the 1986 season. Interestingly, the Oilers only played nine games that year. Congrats and thanks go out to Jason (Findlay, '99) for both the correct answer and the additional knowledge about Hutchinson's great season. Current Oiler Mike Chambers only needs 90 yards against Ashland on Saturday to take over possession of the record.

For this week's question, we'll stay in the defensive backfield at Ferris. Tell me who holds the career record at Ferris for interceptions. As usual, a copy of our preview mag is up for grabs. Send you answers, questions, comments, etc. to me at .

 

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