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After what Grand Valley and Northwest Missouri
have accomplished in the playoffs over the last several years, is it any real
surprise that they'll play against each other in the final National Championship
contest of the decade? The Bearcats will be making their fifth consecutive
appearance in Florence, while GV will be making the trip to The Shoals for the
sixth time in nine seasons. These two programs have embodied success,
consistency, and tradition more than any others in Division II and will duke it
out one more time on Saturday for the "Walnut and Bronze".
Grand Valley 41, Carson-Newman 27
In taking a quick look back at last week, we
need not delve any further than the battle in the trenches. The Lakers were more
physical up front on both sides of the ball, and continued their formula for
success during their drive to Florence: run the ball like mad, and shut down the
opponent's rushing attack. Carson-Newman's top-ranked ground game was held in
check (to the tune of just over half their average output) throughout the
contest by a Laker defense that exhibited an almost military discipline in its
assignments, and showed more than enough speed sideline-to-sideline to keep the
Eagles from ever getting plays out to the edge. The C-N veer never got it going
in the fashion to which it was accustomed, and that lack of rhythm allowed the
Lakers to pretty much control play throughout the game.
In the wake of a several suspensions that were
announced late in the week, P.T. Gates took over as the main rushing option -
and he did not disappoint. The senior gashed the C-N defense for 183 yards and a
pair of TD's, and led a Laker ground attack that amassed 290 yards on the
afternoon. The success in the run game wasn't all Gates did, however, as he
chipped in with four grabs for 70 yards. All of that work was in addition to his
usual duties returning kicks and punts. All tolled, P.T. tallied a Grand Valley
single-game playoff record 326 all-purpose yards. It was a great effort from a
player who has worked super hard this season and has earned the trust and
admiration of pretty much everyone in the Laker locker room.
I talked last week about how turnovers could
play a factor, and the Laker defense definitely made that apparent by forcing
three (it's amazing there weren't more as C-N put the ball on the deck five
times, only losing one). The biggest of the takeaways was Jacob McGuckin's first
quarter pick that he returned 25 yards for a score. It was a beautiful read of
the QB and the senior safety stepped in front of the deep slant and took care of
the rest. LB Justin Victor led the tackle brigade with ten total stops, and DL
Danny Richard chipped in with nine and a pair of sacks. Richard was so hard to
contain, that C-N Head Coach Ken Sparks lamented "I don't think we blocked
him the entire game".
In total, the Eagles were held to just 278
yards of total offense. While RB Buck Wakefield did rush for 119 yards and three
scores (adding a fourth TD on a kickoff return), a significant portion of those
yards came when the issue was no longer in doubt. QB Alex Good was held in check
throughout, only completing six of his seventeen passes. He was sacked twice,
intercepted twice, and held to 42 yards rushing - well below half of his season
average.
With the success the Lakers were having on the
ground and on defense, QB Brad Iciek needed only to avoid mistakes. He did so,
and while his 8-19 for 118 yards and two scores wasn't the most dazzling of
outings he avoided ill-advised throws into a C-N secondary that actually was
quite solid for the better part of the ball game. When one considers that Iciek
missed on his first six attempts and settled in to hit eight of his last
thirteen instead of getting rattled, the afternoon as a whole would have to be
considered a success. Not to mention, a couple of balls that he put on the money
were dropped. What I liked most about the QB's performance was his contribution
to the run game. The Lakers repeatedly got good looks when they were in
empty-backfield sets, and Iciek took advantage. We've seen more of this from GV
of late, and against a terrific NW defense this weekend the Lakers will need
every bullet they can possibly put into the chamber.
Saturday, December 12
The 2009 NCAA Division II National
Championship
#2 Northwest Missouri State (13-1) vs. #4
Grand Valley State (13-1)
For the third time in five years, this pair of
D2 heavyweights will line it up for "all the marbles". Their battles
in Florence have been epic, see-saw affairs that usually aren't decided until
the waning minutes. Given the almost ridiculous number of similarities between
these two teams, a game cut from the same cloth as its predecessors should
almost be expected:
- Both teams ranked at or near the top of their
conference in nearly every major statistical category.
- Both clubs are physical up front and can run
the ball effectively. In addition, they feature solid passing attacks with
efficient QB's. Each runs multiple offensive sets, and work to confuse defenses
by mixing up personnel groupings and alignments.
- The defenses are big and physical, and yet
remarkably fast. Moreover, they are opportunistic as each team is roughly +1.5
in turnover margin per game.
- Each lost a regular season game, only to
avenge that loss with a convincing victory in the second round of the playoffs.
The Bearcats dropped their season opener at Abilene Christian, but easily
handled the Wildcats 35-10 three weeks ago. The Lakers had their 48-game regular
season win streak snapped at Hillsdale, but took a 37-0 halftime edge en route
to a 44-27 win in the playoffs.
- Both clubs hit the road to defeat a physical,
defense-minded club in the Regional Finals. The 'Cats snuck out of Ellensberg
with a 21-20 win over Central Washington, while Grand Valley forced four
interceptions en route to a 24-10 win at Minnesota-Duluth.
- In the semi's both clubs returned home to
beat quality opponents that, at the end of the day, they simply had over
matched. NW beat Cal 56-31, and the Lakers dispatched of Carson-Newman 41-27.
- Both outfits are led by two of D2's coaching
elite. Northwest's Mel Tjeerdsma and GV's Chuck Martin both boast winning
percentages in excess of .725, and each has piloted a pair of his teams to a
National Championship.
- Both schools are the winningest programs in
Division II over the last ten years. It's not even close. NW is 112-21 over that
stretch, while the Lakers are 122-12.
So, the two best teams in the country are once
again in Florence. With them being so similar, how do they break down? Let's
take a stab at it:
Northwest Keys:
- Test the Secondary Early - The Laker
backfield on defense has been a bit of a weak spot over the year, due to both
inexperience and injury. At this point of the season, the inexperience isn't as
much of an issue as several players have stepped up their play (not to mention
their ability to multi-task and play several spots). With that said, this will
easily be the best offense they've seen all year. QB Blake Bolles has thrown for
more than 4,000 yards on the season and can make every throw. In addition, this
is the first time I can remember NW having a truly "marquis" receiving
threat. Sophomore Jake Soy has made over 1,400 yards worth of grabs this year,
including 26 TD's. If the 'Cats can stretch the field early and often the
vaunted run defense of the Lakers will have to allow itself to be spread out a
bit, opening things up for LaRon Council (1,610 yards, 20 TD's) AND Bolles, who
is a strong runner when necessary from the QB position.
- Get off the Field - The Bearcat defense must
get stops, especially against the Grand Valley running game. P.T. Gates, Justin
Sherrod, and Blake Smolen are all proven commodities toting the rock for the
Lakers, and this GV offensive line might be the best (especially in terms of how
they are playing at the moment) that the Bearcats have seen in quite a while.
The Lakers have figured out how to grind down their opponents and wear out their
defenses, while keeping their own defense off the field and fresh. If NW forces
short possessions with no points, it will spell big trouble for the Lakers.
- This Year is This Year - I'm sure that
Northwest is tired of the "Buffalo Bills of D2" references. That said,
those games are in the past. This one is its own deal and the Bearcats need to
focus on today and today only. No more, no less.
Grand Valley Keys:
- Special Teams - For the second week in a row,
the Lakers gave up a kickoff return for a TD in the first quarter, and for the
second week in a row those points helped keep their opponent in the game far
longer than they should have been. The NW offense is plenty good on its own, and
giving them great field position and/or free points is the kind of help they do
not need - and the Lakers can not afford. Another piece of the special teams
puzzle will be forcing the Bearcats into FG situations. The two PK's NW has used
this year are a combined four of ten on the season, and they have yet to attempt
a FG during the playoffs. If GV can avoid giving up TD's, NW getting any points
out of that possession becomes a more interesting proposition.
- Offensive Balance - The Bearcat defense is
ridiculously good, but has shown a bit of a propensity to give up some big plays
in the passing game. GV's bread-and-butter of late has been the run game and
while the Lakers don't possess the true "deep threat" (a la Kircus,
Fowler, Mitchell, etc.) that they may have in the past, that doesn't mean this
receiving corps can't make some hay. This is especially true in play action. If
GV can mix-up Gates, Sherrod and Smolen and get the 'Cat defense drawn in, some
shots over the top should present themselves.
- Win the Turnover Battle - While most have
raved about how GV has run the ball and how the defense has been impressive over
the last three weeks, one thing that has gone a bit overlooked is how well the
Lakers have protected the ball - and forced their opponents to be careless with
it. Grand Valley has not suffered a giveaway during the playoffs, and are +9 in
turnover margin during that stretch. Conversely, the Bearcats are only +1 in
turnover margin during the playoffs, and five of Blake Bolles's twelve
interceptions on the season have come during the last three games. While Bolles
has completed a mind-boggling 75.6% of his passes during the playoffs, he's
given the ball away at least once in every contest. GV must find a way to make
this trend continue.
Prediction:
Vegas has the Bearcats as the favorite in this
game. Given the offensive production we've seen from NW in arguably the toughest
D2 league in the country (the MIAA), that concept isn't too hard to buy. Add to
that the fact that Grand Valley is missing nearly a full third of its starting
line-up since the beginning of the season (due to multiple injuries and a couple
of recent, off-the-field issues), and Northwest being favored might even be
right. With all of that said, there is just something about this Laker club.
Starting TE, CB, Safety, WR, DL, OL, RB, etc. all out? No problem. A few guys
make a bad choice and get the boot the week before the national semi? (The
second year in a row for a similar scenario) So what? Nothing seems to phase
this bunch, and as each week has passed since the loss at Hillsdale on October
10 the Lakers have seemingly become more and more galvanized. The seniors have
led with their play and work ethic, and the coaching staff has prepared
(especially during the playoffs) with an impressive fervor and resolve. There's
a hunger from this team that I haven't seen in a few years, and a sense that
they love being the hunter and not the hunted.
Without question, this will be the biggest
challenge the Lakers have faced this season and it will likely take a nearly
flawless effort from them to take their fifth title back to Allendale. With that
said, the chips have been down for this team nearly all season and yet they've
still come up big. Plus, while I mentioned earlier that this year's game is its
own deal, it's hard to ignore the fact that NW has been here four straight times
and hasn't figured out how to finish the job. Maybe this is their year, but a
wise man (Bob Eblen) once stated "never bet against a streak until it
breaks". It's sage advice, and I'm rolling with it. Grand Valley 27,
Northwest 26.
GLIAC Trivia
Last week, I wanted to know which Laker holds
the Grand Valley career record for kickoff return yardage. Kurt
"Bulldog" Johnson holds that mark, amassing 1,781 yards from 1978
through 1981. Congratulations to Cory (GV, '89) for being the first in with the
right answer.
Down to my final question of the season, gang.
Last chance for a copy of our preview magazine that is, well, pretty obsolete
(obviously) at this point. Feel free to poke fun and any and all predictions we
may have had in there that went horribly awry! More importantly, don't forget to
pre-order your copy next summer. The 2010 edition will really be something.
OK, this week's will be about as easy as it
gets: Grand Valley has played in five national title games. In only one of those
games has a Laker gone over 100 yards rushing. Who did it, when, and what was
their stat line?
Send your answers, thoughts, questions, etc. to
 . I hope to see you all
in Florence! Safe travels, everyone.
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