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Amazingly, the 2009 season that we all
anticipated so eagerly is now about to draw to a close. For some within the
GLIAC, the results of the campaign will leave a bad taste in their mouths. For
others, a vast improvement over what they've done in previous years provides a
feeling of hope and promise for 2010 and the autumns of the future. And for a
select few, the opportunity to continue this season for at least one more week
is a very real possibility. I promised I'd take a stab at the playoff picture
heading into this weekend, so here goes.
Here's how the Regional Seedings look heading
into the play of November 7:
1 - Minnesota State - (10-0)
2 - Minnesota-Duluth - (9-1)
3 - Grand Valley - (9-1)
4 - Nebraska-Kearney - (9-1)
5 - Saginaw Valley - (8-2)
6 - Hillsdale - (8-2)
7 - Bemidji State - (6-3)
8 - Wayne State (NE) - (7-3)
9 - Findlay - (7-3)
10 - Winona State - (7-3)
For those who are unaware, the Top Six from
these seedings make it into the playoff field. So, just being on the above list
"isn't quite enough". With that said, the only list that truly matters
is the one that comes out on Sunday afternoon. Here's what my gut tells me as to
who'll be on it and in the Top Six.
Who's In
Even with losses, Minnesota State, UMD and
Grand Valley are likely all safe. Obviously, no one wants to chance it and where
teams get seeded is important when it comes to byes, home games, and the like.
Winning is still a priority for each so they can have at least one home game
during the playoffs, not to mention the week off for the top two seeds is always
a coveted plus. All three of these clubs play teams with winning records on
Saturday, with both of the Minnesota teams having to take to the road to do so.
With that in mind, each will see their strength of schedule (SOS) improve so a
loss would not likely hurt any of them far enough to be left out of the field.
Who's Looking Good
At this point, I'd say Saginaw Valley is pretty
safe. Their SOS is helped by having played/defeated Cal back in Week One. They
do play a Ferris club this weekend that has been struggling mightily, so SV's
SOS will take a hit. Nevertheless, I think it's simple for the Cards: Win and
you're in.
Another club I feel is pretty safe is
Nebraska-Kearney. They play at a .500 Mesa State on Saturday, which will
actually improve their SOS slightly as their rating in that category isn't
especially favorable. With that said, a loss likely won't hurt them enough to
fall out of the Top Six. If it does, as long as they don't drop out of the Top
Eight they can still enter the field via Earned Access. In short, Earned Access
will place a team in the playoff field if they are ranked seventh or eighth in
the seedings and no other members of their conference are in the seedings above
them. They would essentially "bump" whoever is the lowest-seeded team
in the Top Six that is not their own conference's lone representative in the Top
Six (it was as painful to write that stuff as I'm sure it is for you to read and
try to interpret it). I hope this is something that DOES NOT happen, and if UNK
simply handles their business the point is moot. If they should lose, the
question then becomes whether or not they finish above eighth in the final
seedings. Their SOS is one of the weaker ones in the region, so it's not
inconceivable. With all of that said, the Lopers are just like SV in my opinion:
Win and they're in.
Who's on the Edge
Another team with a "weakish" SOS
rating is Hillsdale. They play Tiffin this weekend, so that rating isn't going
to get any better. With that said, the Chargers are on the verge of posting a
9-2 finish, which would include winning five straight to close out the season.
Among the umpteen criteria the committee can use is what a team does over their
last four games, and few have been as hot or impressive as the Chargers in that
stretch. While it's not inconceivable that Hillsdale could wind up on the
outside looking in, my gut tells me that if they win Saturday their chances are
solid. Only six teams in the region can finish 9-2 or better at this point and
Hillsdale is one of them.
Who Needs Help
There are seven teams that have an opportunity
to finish with only three losses: Bemidji State, Wayne State (NE), Findlay,
Winona State, Northwood, Colorado School of Mines, and Augustana. In all
honesty, while Bemidji, Findlay, Wayne, and Winona all have SOS ratings in the
Top 35 nationally, my gut tells me that only Wayne and Winona have legitimate
shots at making the field. Each has a top flight SOS, and Winona's will jump a
good amount as they host UMD this Saturday - and there's no telling what a
marquis win like that in the last week of the season would do for them in the
minds of the committee. Much like everyone else, the best/only thing that each
of these clubs can do for their case is to win. Additionally, each of these
outfits will also have to hope that every one else presently along side them
loses, along with someone above them on the list.
What Will Happen
If the Top Six all win, I'm pretty confident
that the Top Five teams as they stand today will all make the field. Their seeds
may or may not shift a bit, but each of those clubs will make the bracket. The
only question mark I have is Hillsdale. Even with a victory, their SOS rating
will be one of the lower ones in the region. At that point, it will be up to the
committee to figure out whether the resume of one of the 8-3 clubs is impressive
enough to overcome the fact that they lost one more game than the Chargers did.
Whether or not that might happen is beyond me.
If one or more of the Top Six lose, then all
bets are off. Of the teams I mentioned, only UMD and Winona (playing each other)
have tilts against another team in the playoff mix so it's more than plausible
that nine of the Top Ten could win and keep things in line with what I've
described.
Keep it Real, Folks
One thing that we all need to keep in mind here
is that I'm pretty much pulling this stuff out of thin air. Are my assertions
somewhat educated? Certainly. With that said, I'm not an expert on this, nor do
I claim to be. I'm not a member of the committee, nor do I claim to be. While
anyone can read the Championship Handbook to learn about how the process works
and the criteria that are used, what the committee will decide and how they
arrive at it is not published. Each Regional Committee is allowed to apply the
criteria in whichever way they deem the most appropriate. All I'm giving at this
point is my "best guess".
There are a lot of folks out there who insist
that the majority of the selection process revolves around math (I used to be
one of them). While data and numbers are absolutely integral to the process,
there is no "formula" that is used. I guess the best way to describe
the process is this: "Objective data is interpreted and applied to a
subjective methodology to obtain an objective result." In other words, the
numbers provide a base line to determine who the "candidates" are for
the field, but ultimately it's up to the committee to interpret the data and
come up with what they feel are the best six teams to compete in the playoffs.
It's with knowing this for a fact that I can repeat what I said above: I'm just
giving you my best guess on this.
Are there flaws with how it works? One could
always argue that. With that said, my opinion is that while nearly anything
could be deemed "in need of improvement", the way this is done is
pretty good. It's not all numbers, and it's not all subjective opinions. My
personal contention is that one or the other is a bad way to go, and at least we
have a "mix" of the two today. If improvement is needed, at least
improvement on today's model would be (in my mind) working toward making things
better as opposed to "fixing something that is broken".
OK. Enough rhetoric and conjecture. One more
week of the GLIAC slate remains. Let's get to it.
Saturday, October 31
Northwood 38, Wayne State 24
314 yards and 3 TD's from Joique Bell weren't
enough to overcome a Warrior defense that allowed TD's to NU on six of its first
seven possessions, including a one-play, "Hail Mary" drive to end the
first half. Much like Bell, The Woodbone was grinding up turf as five different
NU ball carriers scored TD's and Anthony Brandon posted 107 yards.
Ashland 19, Indianapolis 3
Both offenses failed to take advantage of
struggling defenses as the two clubs failed to COMBINE for 400 yards of total
offense. Yikes. The punters and kickers ruled the day, and Carlin Isles's return
of the opening kickoff for a TD proved to be all that the Eagles would need to
win on Senior Day.
Michigan Tech 21, Tiffin 14
Despite falling behind early and suffering
through three turnovers, Tech had a pretty good handle on this one throughout.
The defense had its best outing of the season, and Marvin Atkins rushed for 101
yards to lead the offense.
Hillsdale 59, Ferris 14
As expected, the Bulldogs were simply
overmatched as Hillsdale scored via the air, the ground, on special teams, and
on defense to race out to a 52-0 edge after three quarters. The entire travel
squad saw action for the Chargers as they continue to hold up their end of the
deal in trying to make the playoffs.
Grand Valley 31, Northern Michigan 19
The Wildcats entered the game with the league's
second best defense against the run. Grand Valley seemed unimpressed, as Jimmy
Berezik (213 yards) and P.T. Gates (106 yards, TD) led a Laker attack that
racked up 356 rushing yards and more than 500 yards of total offense. Despite
those yardage numbers, scoring on each of their first four possessions for a
20-0 edge, and never punting during the game, the Lakers kept the 'Cats in the
mix in the second half with a few turnovers and their oft-nagging inability to
finish drives (Justin Trumble's three FG's all came from 29 yards or closer). In
the end, GV's ability to control the ball and slow down the Northern ground
attack (only 41 yards) proved too much for the 'Cats to overcome as the Lakers
finished off a contest that they pretty well controlled for the most part.
Saginaw Valley 24, Findlay 16
The first half of this one lacked a certain
"entertainment value", as a lot of punting and jockeying for field
position took place. The Oilers held a 7-3 edge at the break, but the Cardinals
put up TD's on three of their first four second half possessions to take control
of the affair. Both defenses played great, limiting the opposing offense to less
than 300 yards on the day. The turning point came in late in the third quarter,
with the game in a 10-10 deadlock. A Findlay punt went awry, and SV took over at
the Oiler 21 yard line. The Cards used the short field to take a seven point
advantage, and then forced a Findlay three-and-out that gave way to a 10 play,
79-yard march to put the game out of reach.
Saturday, November 7
Ferris State (0-9, 1-9) at #10 Saginaw
Valley (7-2, 8-2)
The injury-riddled Bulldogs close things out
with a visit to a Cardinal outfit that, as far as I can tell, controls its
playoff destiny. It's the second straight week that Ferris faces a team looking
to cement its playoff resume, which is a tough way to end what has been a really
trying season in Big Rapids.
Ferris Keys:
- Find some Big Plays - No easy task against the league's third-rated defense.
With that said, the Dawgs have struggled with offensive consistency this year so
whatever they can do to get some points and put some pressure on SV is a must.
- Make your Own Breaks - SV still turns the ball over a fair amount, so the FSU
defense needs to get some takeaways and either score or give the offense some
short fields.
Saginaw Valley Keys:
- No Letdown - It might be tempting and/or easy for the Cards just to count this
game as "in the bag". That's just the kind of opening that Ferris will
look for. The Bulldogs would like nothing more than to spoil the "Card
party" and end their season with a good feeling.
- Protect the Ball - Despite the fact that he's led the club to eight victories
this year, QB Chuck Dowdell still has his issues with turning the ball over. The
Cardinals can't give Ferris any breaks or glimmers of hope.
Prediction: While this is football and anything
can happen, it's pretty hard for me to see a scenario (outside of the Cardinals
losing focus) that has Ferris going into Wickes and coming out with a win. I
like Saginaw to finish things off and (in all likelihood) head to the playoffs
for the first time since 2005. Saginaw 48, Ferris 13
Ashland (5-4, 5-5) at Findlay (6-3, 7-3)
This is one of the oldest rivalries in the
GLIAC, as these two will line-up for the fortieth time since they first did so
back in 1924. The Eagles are trying to finish with a winning record for a season
that got away from them after a 3-1 start. The Oilers need a win to complete
what is already their best campaign since 2002, and to keep alive whatever
playoff hopes they still have.
Ashland Keys:
- Where's the O - The Eagles' calling card over the last few seasons has been an
explosive offense. Each of the last two weeks, AU's output has been inexplicably
low. I mean, Billy Cundiff has had individual quarters over his career with more
passing yards than he's put up in the last two games combined. AU needs to find
a way to move the ball or this one could be over early.
- Digging the D - Not sure where it came from, but the Eagle D was great last
week sacking UIndy QB Rob Doyle eight times and hold the 'Hounds to only 16 net
yards rushing. If AU can come up with a similar effort in this one, they'll
certainly improve their chances.
Findlay Keys:
- Finish - After starting 6-1, the Oilers have dropped two of three and were
awful close to having it be three straight when Northern was in town a couple of
weeks ago. UF needs to dial it in and finish a great season with a great effort.
- Kick'em while He's Down - AU QB Billy Cundiff has had a pair of efforts over
the last couple of weeks that, again, I can hardly believe. The Oilers have a
solid pass rush and need to use it to keep the AU offense off balance AND off
the field.
Prediction: It's hard not to favor Findlay in
this one. They've been more consistent offensively, and more physical
defensively for the better part of the year. With that said, I have a sneaking
suspicion that Ashland will be ready for this one. I'll stick with Findlay and
their ground game at home, but I wouldn't be surprised if this one ends up being
close. Findlay 23, Ashland 17.
Indianapolis (3-6, 4-6) at Northern Michigan
(5-4, 5-4)
After racing out to a 5-1 (and nearly 6-0)
start the Wildcats have struggled of late, dropping three straight games to a
few of the league's better outfits. Regardless, NMU is certainly improved this
year and has to be pleased with the opportunity to post its first winning record
since 2002. They've got a good chance to get that done against a UIndy club that
was down a bit this year.
UIndy Keys:
- Score Points - On more than one occasion this season, UIndy has actually had a
surprising output/advantage statistically, and yet they don't find a way to put
points on the board and wind up losing. Ashland last week is a perfect example.
If the 'Hounds get chances to score, they need to cash in.
- Tough Up-Front - Despite being in the top half of the league in defending the
run, the 'Hounds will be facing an NMU rushing offense that has been awful good
this year. UIndy must not let the 'Cats make any headway in establishing their
ground attack.
Northern Keys:
- Back to Basics - Play physical defense, run the ball, use the home crowd.
These are all things that Northern did well during their five-game winning
streak. They need to get back to what was working for them.
- A bit more Carter - The NMU QB is plenty talented, and I'm not entirely sure
why the 'Cats haven't thrown the ball more. It's the last game of the year, so
there's no sense in not letting loose.
Prediction: UIndy's three league wins came
against teams who have won a combined three games all season. When they've
played any of the mid-level or higher teams, they've had their struggles. Add in
a massive road trip and a Northern club hungry to finish off a good season on
the right note and I think you have a Wildcat romp. Northern 41, UIndy 14.
Northwood (6-3, 6-3) at Michigan Tech (2-7,
2-7)
The Woodies head north riding a three game
winning streak. The Woodbone has been a bit more ground-centric of late after we
saw the 'Wolves throw the ball a fair amount during the early stages of the
year. As for Tech, they wind down a disappointing season that saw them lose a
couple of close ones early, and lose their four-year starting QB to injury as
well.
Northwood Keys:
- Get after Heim - Despite the progress the MTU QB has made since taking over as
the starter, he's still shown that he can be forced into mistakes. NU is tenth
in the league against the pass, and if they let the Huskies get anything going
throwing the ball it could be a problem. Forcing turnovers and getting the
defense off the field should be a big initiative.
- Runnin', not Gunnin' - While they weren't "pass-happy", the NU
aerial attack was doing some major damage during the first half of he season. Of
late, we've seen much more of the "old school" Woodbone with massive
ground totals and paltry passing numbers. If it's working, there's no sense in
changing. The Huskies are only so-so against the run.
Tech Keys:
- No Mo - The 'Wolves got things going the way they liked against Wayne last
week, and the Warriors never recovered. Tech can't fall into that same trap.
They need to get a few early stops, make NU uncomfortable, and not allow them to
create/gain any momentum.
- Heim Time - As I mentioned, Northwood is near the bottom of the league in
defending the pass. MTU needs to expose that secondary for some big plays and
big chunks of yardage.
Prediction: Northwood seems to be rolling right
now, and I like them to keep it going in this one. Northwood 30, Tech 18.
Tiffin (0-9, 0-10) at #21 Hillsdale (7-2,
8-2)
This one's pretty simple: Hillsdale can't
afford to lose if they want any shot at making the playoffs. While Tiffin has
not quit on the season and has shown signs of improvement, it'll be a tall order
for them to go in to Muddy Waters on Senior Day and swipe Chargers' playoff
hopes away from them.
Tiffin Keys:
- Slow the Run - The Dragons are last in the league against the run, and they're
facing a Hillsdale ground attack that has been nearly unstoppable over the last
month. If HC can move the ball well with the running game, they'll simply play
keep away and end things early. TU needs possessions, and must get stops in
order to have them.
- Cash In - TU actually won the turnover battle last week, but couldn't create
much in the way of points as a result. If HC opens the door for you to stay in
the game, walking through is a must.
Hillsdale Keys:
- Just like last Week - No fooling around with this one. Yes, you have the
opponent overmatched. Getting on the field and winning the game is still
required. The Chargers can not forget their objective.
- Block it Up - Tiffin's last in the league in rushing defense and total
defense. Hillsdale has (arguably) the best offensive line in the league. Making
holes for Panizzi and protecting Weatherhead so both can get out of the game
early is something I'm sure Coach Otterbein would love to see happen.
Prediction: Move along, folks. Nothing to see
here. Hillsdale 55, Tiffin 10.
Wayne State (5-4, 6-4) at #6 Grand Valley
(8-1, 9-1)
Several times this year, we had slates of games
that featured all of the teams in the top half of the standings facing off
against each other. No such luck for the finale, as this contest is the only one
in the league this weekend that features two teams with winning records.
Grand Valley locked up at least a share of
their fifth consecutive GLIAC crown last week, and look to make that title
out-right with a win. In addition, GV is hoping for some help in creeping their
way up to the Top Two in the region so they can enjoy the first round bye that
comes along with such a position.
On the other side of things is a Wayne State
team that has lost three of four after starting the year 5-1. Of course, it's
pretty hard to talk about the Warriors without mentioning Joique Bell. The
senior RB has already surpassed the 2,000 yard mark this season, the second time
in his career he has done so. He leads the nation in rushing at 201 yards per
game, and will face the league's best run-stopping unit. While the Lakers have
never really been able to "stop" Bell in his previous three games
against GV, for the most part the results of the games were not all that close.
This will be Bell's and his fellow seniors' first trip to The Shipyard, as the
game GV hosted in the series two years ago was played at Fifth/Third Ball Park.
Wayne State Keys:
- Defense must stay off the Field - That's how the Lakers have slowed down the
last few offensive units they've faced. Nice, long drives that chew up clock and
keep the opposing playmakers on the sideline. The Warriors need to use a similar
strategy in this one. WSU is last in the league in defending the pass, something
Brad Iciek and his mates will no doubt look to exploit. The Warriors must find a
way to get stops.
- Get Joique some Help - While the kid can, conceivably, do darn near everything
by himself the Warriors typically have shown a higher rate of success when they
don't force him to be their sole offensive option. Mickey Mohner and the
receivers need to make at least a few plays to keep the GV defense honest.
Grand Valley Keys:
- Be ready on the Play-Action - Clubs put so much into trying to stop Bell that
they can easily get sucked into the play action passing of Wayne State. Making
it even more difficult to stop is that the Warriors use it so infrequently, what
with Bell usually causing all of the ruckus he does on the ground. It's hard to
know for sure when it's coming. Keeping Bell out of the end zone (he's scored 30
times already this season) is hard enough, so GV needs to avoid getting beat
deep by any of Wayne's receivers. While this isn't like defending an option
attack, it still takes discipline to contain Wayne's offense. The Warriors are
(logically) first in the league in rushing, but they are last in throwing the
ball. As I mentioned above, they try and leverage this by burning defenses when
they get all eleven men up into the box. GV's D needs to stay home and take care
of their assignments.
- Take what's There - Again, WSU's pass defense is the softest in the league.
Not helping things is that their run defense seems to be struggling
progressively more each week. Brad Iciek thrives on getting his charges into the
right play in order to exploit the weakness of a given defensive set. I know
that keeping the ball out of Bell's hands is a priority, but if the Laker drives
are short the result is still effective if each series makes it to the end zone.
Scoring points wins games, possession time doesn't.
Prediction: Despite the Lakers reputation on
defense, they are still not immune to what Wayne's senior phenom can do toting
the rock. In his three games against Grand Valley Bell's lowest output is 131
yards, so GV will have its hands full. With all of that said, the Lakers know
that they need another win to solidify their playoff resume and ensure that
their worst-case scenario is a number three seed and hosting a first round
playoff game. In addition, while Bell has been able to put up some good numbers
against GV defenses the closest his club has ever finished a game to the Lakers
is 14 points. Bell will get his yards, but look for Grand Valley to win the day
and cement their fifth straight, out-right GLIAC Championship. Grand Valley 39,
Wayne State 22.
Player Profile
This week, we got a chance to chat with Ferris
State DB Sonny Favot. The senior from South Lyon, MI has 56 tackles on the year
and has also forced a couple of turnovers. The Bulldogs are preparing for their
trip East to take on Saginaw Valley.
What is your major?
Sports Management
What's your favorite class?
Issues in Physical Education - Everyday a different student teaches the class.
Other than your home field, what are your
favorite and least favorite places to play in the GLIAC and why?
My favorite place to play is GVSU. The crowd there is great, the noise and fans
make for an exciting atmosphere. My least favorite place to play is NMU. I still
don't like their turf.
How is life on the road in the GLIAC? How do
you pass the time on the long trips?
There are a few long road trips for us. To pass the time they put on a movie. I
just sleep or listen to music and eat healthy snacks.
Who is the hardest hitter on your team? How
about in the GLIAC?
On my team, it's (OLB) Matt Ryan or (LB) Alex Brajak. In the GLIAC I'm not
totally sure.
How many text messages do you get/send in a
day?
Twenty or so. I'd rather talk on the phone.
What's your favorite food?
Definitely Qdoba Mexican Grill. Chicken Queso Burrito, especially on
double-point Tuesday.
What's your favorite TV Show?
I don't watch TV. It makes you fat and weak.
What influenced your decision to choose Ferris
State/playing in Division II?
Ferris State had a variety of programs that I was interested in.
What do you hope to do after graduation?
After graduation I hope stop paying rent and to start working in my field
immediately.
Thanks, Sonny. I need to find a Qdoba that
gives double points any day. I'd love that!
GLIAC Trivia
Last week, I wanted to know who held the record
at Findlay for receiving yards in a single season. That distinction is presently
held by Derek Hutchinson, who tallied 1,018 yards during the 1986 season.
Interestingly, the Oilers only played nine games that year. Congrats and thanks
go out to Jason (Findlay, '99) for both the correct answer and the additional
knowledge about Hutchinson's great season. Current Oiler Mike Chambers only
needs 90 yards against Ashland on Saturday to take over possession of the
record.
For this week's question, we'll stay in the
defensive backfield at Ferris. Tell me who holds the career record at Ferris for
interceptions. As usual, a copy of our preview mag is up for grabs. Send you
answers, questions, comments, etc. to me at  .
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