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As I made the two hour, 45 minute drive from
Stephenville to San Angelo for Tarleton State's game at Angelo State last
Saturday, I was able to listen to the majority of the game between Abilene
Christian and Texas A&M-Kingsville.
As ACU pulled away with a big third quarter, I
couldn't help but compare this Javelina team to the 2007 and 2008 Tarleton teams
that seemed to peak too early in the year.
The Javs began the year 5-0, but it has been a
struggle since that point. They got to 6-0 only because of six Tarleton
turnovers including three in the last half of the fourth quarter, and 7-0 only
because Texas A&M-Commerce gave the ball away twice in the fourth after it
appeared the Lions were bound to pull the upset. Then came Midwestern State's
dismantling of TAMUK in Wichita Falls, followed by the Javs just holding on at
home against Eastern New Mexico.
I wasn't surprised to hear ACU pull away from
TAMUK, as I figured the Wildcats would be itching to re-establish themselves
offensively after struggling at Tarleton, and because the Javelinas just aren't
the same team on the road.
The good news for TAMUK is that Angelo must
travel to the valley for this Saturday's regular season finale, and a win at
home paired with some losses that wouldn't exactly be huge upsets could still
have the Javelinas packing for a trip to the playoffs.
Speaking of the playoffs, Tarleton is No. 3 in
the Super Region Four rankings, ACU is No. 4, Midwestern is No. 7, TAMUK No. 8
and Angelo No. 10.
While I think Angelo has a good shot of beating
TAMUK if the Rams play like they did for much of the first half last week, they
are likely out of the playoff chase.
That leaves four teams vying for what will be
two or possibly three spots from the LSC.
Can Tarleton get in with a loss? I would put
those odds at 50-50, although the Texans don't want to chance that after being
left out with a 9-2 mark in 2007. They face the tall order of hosting West Texas
A&M on Saturday. The Buffaloes, since the return of the stellar Keithon
Flemming, are playing as well as anyone in the league. But beating ACU seemed a
tall order for Tarleton as well, as did beating Midwestern, and Angelo on the
road. Tarleton won all those in tight games, showing this team may have the
necessary intangibles that appeared to be missing from Texan teams of recent
seasons.
The winner of ACU-Midwestern is playoff bound,
that much can be counted on. ACU is likely out with a loss and Midwestern
certainly would be. Two weeks ago I wondered if ACU could fully recover. The
Wildcats surprised me last week, however, not because they won, but with the
margin of victory. The game is in Wichita Falls, but outside of the Tarleton
game, ACU hasn't lost a road contest in two years.
Texas A&M-Kingsville needs some help for
sure. But the possibility for help is there. Remember if Tarleton lost and fell
to No. 6 and TAMUK moved up to No. 7, the Javs own the head-to-head. And
Missouri Western must deal with Nebraska-Omaha while Central Missouri faces the
daunting challenge of needing to beat Northwest Missouri State.
The bottom line is, four playoff spots are
there for the taking (Central Washington and Northwest Missouri are in for sure)
and at least six teams still have a shot. The only thing I know for sure is at
least one team will be feeling as if they were left out unfairly once selections
are announced Sunday afternoon.
Nobody from the LSC North is in the playoff
picture, but Texas A&M-Commerce certainly deserves to be congratulated. The
Lions were on the verge of taking down ACU and TAMUK in conference play and won
the North last week (barring a monumental upset at Southwestern Saturday). If
they had come through late in those two close crossover games, they would be in
the discussion for the league-wide title. As it is, they are likely to finish at
5-5 with an outright North Division championship in their first season under Guy
Morris. Lions fans have to be pleased with the direction the program appears to
be headed.
LSC Scoreboard
Abilene Christian 47, Texas A&M-Kingsville
35
Tarleton State 21, Angelo State 14
Texas A&M-Commerce 27, Southeastern Oklahoma 17
Midwestern State 50, Eastern New Mexico 17
West Texas A&M 66, Northeastern State 23
Central Oklahoma 42, East Central 25
Oklahoma Panhandle 28, Southwestern Oklahoma 24
My record last week: 5-2
This Week's Games
Incarnate Word at Eastern New Mexico
6 p.m. (MST) Saturday in Blackwater Draw, NM
Eastern New Mexico hasn't won a South Division
contest since 2006, but at least they will get to finish 2009 by picking on a
future member of the league. It's been another long season in Blackwater
Draw/Portales, NM, but anyone can see the Hounds are becoming much more
competitive. They will be title contenders when they make the move to the LSC
North next year.
Eastern New Mexico 45, Incarnate Word 14
Northeastern State at Central Oklahoma
2 p.m. Saturday in Edmond, Okla.
It may not show up in the win column yet, but I
believe Northeastern is going to gradually head in the right direction. Central
Oklahoma has had a disappointing season, but the Bronchos are just one year
removed from an LSC North title. A good off-season could have them right back in
contention in 2010. As for this game, I'll take Brandon Noohi and UCO at home.
Central Oklahoma 31, Northeastern State 21
Texas A&M-Commerce at Southwestern
Oklahoma
2 p.m. in Weatherford, Okla.
Southwestern is coming off an embarrassing loss
to Panhandle State while Texas A&M-Commerce is fresh off its biggest win of
the season in which the Lions secured at least a share of the North crown. Could
they be caught looking past the Bulldogs? Forget about it. TAMUC will be focused
on winning the title outright, getting to .500 for the season and continuing to
build momentum heading into Morris' first off-season.
Texas A&M-Commerce 31, Southwestern
Oklahoma 14
Southeastern Oklahoma at East Central
2 p.m. Saturday in Ada, Okla.
Southeastern looks to rebound after suffering a
loss in the de facto North Division championship game. They have the right foe
on the other side to do it against, that's for sure. Look for Pitrucha to go out
with a big bang, even if it is on the road.
Southeastern Oklahoma 35, East Central 13
Angelo State at Texas A&M-Kingsville
7 p.m. Saturday in Kingsville, Tex.
I said earlier the Rams have a shot if they
play the way they did in the first half last week. While I stand by that theory,
two things must fall in place - the Rams must not give up after having their
playoff hopes dashed, and they must bring their "A" game to a stadium
that few visiting opponents ever do. The Javs should be focused as they still
have a chance to advance with the teams they need to lose all facing difficult
opponents.
Like I said, the Rams have a shot; but, also
like I said, the Javs are a different team on the road than they are at home,
and this one's down in Hoggyville.
Texas A&M-Kingsville 27, Angelo State 21
West Texas A&M at Tarleton State
7 p.m. Saturday in Stephenville, Tex.
West Texas A&M has pulled off about the
biggest midseason 180-degree turn you'll see. The return of Keithon Flemming,
paired with improvements all around as the year has gone on has the Buffs
playing as well as anyone. Tarleton is tired of losing to WT, however, and has a
defense that has been rockin'. The Texans have won four straight close ones, all
by 10 points or less. Can they make it five-in-a-row and earn the right to host
a playoff game? I struggled over this one, but it seems Tarleton wants it worse
this year than in the past.
Tarleton State 21, West Texas A&M 17
Abilene Christian at Midwestern State
1 p.m. Saturday in Wichita Falls, Tex.
This is a match-up I've been looking forward to
ever since seeing Midwestern play at midseason. The Mustangs are two
closing-second field goals away from being perfect. As it stands, they must win
at home to get into the playoffs. Along with WT and Tarleton, the Mustangs have
absolutely played the best ball in the conference over the last few weeks. But
didn't ACU look like the team that was once top-ranked just a week ago?
Before last Saturday, I would have said this is
Midwestern by 10. But Mitchell Gale and the Wildcats grew up a lot offensively
in their big win over Kingsville.
I'm throwing home field advantage out because,
as I pointed out earlier, the Wildcats have lost just once on the road in two
seasons. Still, with all else even, I'm going to go with the more seasoned QB in
Zac Eskridge, but believe me, I won't be AT ALL surprised if I get this wrong.
Midwestern State 28, Abilene Christian 27
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