D2Football.com
Covering
 
D2 Football Home
D2 Football News
D2 Football News
D2 Football Video
D2 Football Columnists
D2 Football Scores
D2 Football Top 25 Poll
D2 Football Player Awards
D2 Football Regional Rankings
D2 Football Statistics
D2 Football All Americans
D2 Football Pro Hopefuls
D2 Football Information
D2 Football Teams
D2 Football Champions
D2 Football Championship Game
D2 Football Harlon Hill
D2 Football Stadiums
D2 Football Alumni
D2 Football Interactive
D2 Football Message Board
D2 Football Chat
D2 Football Coaches
D2 Football Coaching Vacancies
D2 Football Schedule Openings
D2 Football About Us
D2 Football Advertise
D2 Football Staff
D2 Football Contact Us
 
 
D2Football.com Columnists Mid-America Intercollegiate Athletics Association

Mid-America Intercollegiate Athletics Association

November 3rd, 2009


A couple of convincing victories over 2-7 teams didn't bode so well for two teams in Super Region 4 last week.

Missouri Western, who stayed No. 3 in the region after an embarrassing loss to Missouri Southern last week, dropped 2 spots in this week's Regional Rankings despite a 29-6 victory over Emporia State.

Central Missouri makes out in all of this too, with Midwestern State - out of the Lone Star Conference - 50-17 winners over Eastern New Mexico, dropping from 4 to 7 while the Mules jumped 3 spots of their own to No. 6.

So if the playoffs started today, Central Missouri would be in. Sorry Warrensburg, they don't.

What lies ahead for Head Coach Willie Fritz and company might be the most daunting of destinies a team has ever controlled. You're facing a group of seniors who has never lost a game to a conference rival and who cannot afford a slip-up, heading into the playoffs with a pretty good shot at hosting at least 2 postseason games.

To understand any of this, you'll need to look at this week's Regional Rankings, which I attempted to explain to you a few weeks ago, yet am left feeling like I'm the one who needs a lesson in how things work.

Here's the rankings and what Central Washington - who despite the top seed has the most to prove - and the LSC teams have in store for them this week. We'll talk more about the MIAA games.

Each team is followed by their current overall record and last week's Regional Ranking in parenthesis.

1. Central Washington 10-0 (1)

This Week: At 5-4 Western Oregon, who gave the Wildcats all they could handle in Washington just 3 weeks ago.  You can argue both sides of where Central Washington belongs in this list all day, but they are where they belong. 10-0 is hard in any league.

2. Northwest's Missouri 9-1 (2)

3. Tarleton State 9-1 (6)

This Week: At 5-5 West Texas A&M, who come in winners of 4 straight, including victories over other Regionally Ranked LSC teams Abilene Christian and Angelo State.  Tarleton should have been ranked this high already. They had already beaten ACU and Midwestern.

4. Abilene Christian 8-2 (7)

This Week: Hosts 8-2 Midwestern State, who is just 1-2 against the other top LSC teams.

5. Missouri Western 8-2 (3)

6. Central Missouri 8-2 (9)

7. Midwestern State 8-2 (4)

This Week: At Abilene Christian, who just snapped a 2-game losing streak and was the top seed the first several weeks of the rankings.

8. Texas A&M Kingsville 8-2 (5)

This Week: Hosts 6-4 Angelo State, who is the only Regionally Ranked team without a shot at gettting in.

9. Washburn 7-3 (8)

10. Angelo State 6-4 (10)

This Week: At Texas A&M Kingsville, who could very likely move right past higher-seeded teams that lose this week into the playoffs.

Bods Still Breathing

It seems unlikely, but sitting at No. 9 isn't the worst spot Washburn could be in right now. It's truly a shame the Ichabod will likely miss the playoffs, but the fact remains, the Nos. 6, 7 and 8 teams all play losable games this week, and if all four teams end up with 3 losses, I gotta think Washburn wins out. They're just better than the rest of them (if they're all 8-3).

The Power of Three

Five teams moved up or down 3 spots this week in the Regional Rankings. We may see no 8-3 teams reach the playoffs, while we could see as many as 3 teams that have 3 losses. Figure that one out for yourself, I'm moving on.

The Biggest Game in Program History?

Central Missouri has not been to the playoffs since Keegan Coleman ran his way into the Mule record books in 2002. That single game, a loss at Northern Colorado, was their only appearance.

At 8-2, with a chance to beat arguably the best team around, the Mules have a chance to come into the playoffs with more unexpected momentum than anyone in the country. You see, I'm not really sure they were supposed to beat UNO a few weeks back, and don't tell me you didn't leave a little room in the back of your head last week for another Missouri Southern miracle.

It didn't happen. Central is beating the teams they oughtta be beating and even gave Washburn a good game until collapsing in the 2nd half. It wasn't pretty against Missouri Western either, but this Mule team can play some football.

If ever you've needed to play the perfect game, this is it. Central this year has found ways to win despite some sloppy play. They barely snuck by what has become a very bad Emporia State team, their offense disappeared Week 4 against Pitt State, and they overcame 3 fumbles and a 10-0 deficit in the first 20 minutes of the game last week against Southern to eek out a 27-17 victory.

If you're down 10-0 with 10 to play in the first half Saturday, you're out of luck. Quarterback Eric Czerniewski has to be on point and the Mules have to be scoring, early and often. If Central struggles offensively, it's over. This team is streaky and needs to start strong because they're just not going to keep up with the Bearcats if they dont' click early.

I was preaching the same kind of thing when Washburn went up to Maryville a couple weeks ago. But I dont see this game turning into the defensive struggle we saw at Homecoming at Northwest.

I do though see the game turning on a big defensive play. If Central Missouri can get that play from senior free safety Randy Shepard, my vote for MIAA Defensive Player of the Year, we might just see the Mules in the playoffs.

If not, and we see the dominating Bearcat defense making all the plays, the Mules will be heading for Excelsior Springs for an appearance in the Mineral Water Bowl.

Northwest Just Needs to Take Care of Business

I've been doing the Bearcat dance the last few columns so much, I might as well have joined the Bearcat Marching Band. So this week, I thought I'd concentrate my early attention to other contenders in the league.

But we are still talking about MIAA football, so we can't forget about the best team in the conference and maybe the hottest team in the country.

All right seniors, finish off a perfect conference career and you have a shot at the road to the National Championship once again going through Maryville.

This wouldn't be the first time coach Mel Tjeerdsma has guided a team to an unbeaten 4 years of conference football. Three years after beginning his Northwest coaching career with an 0-11 season, Tjeerdsma rattled off 41 consecutive conference victories, including all 9 games in 1997-2000 and the first 5 games of 2001.

But hey, Bearcat fans. You could lose this game.

Whoa. What? Really? Yeah, it can happen. Then what?

One thing is certain. They'll lose their 1st-round bye. Could they be forced to travel in the 1st-round of the playoffs? That depends on what else happens.

In some senses, the Bearcats have as much to lose as anyone going into the final week of the season.

Tjeerdsma told me he isn't concerned with how the Regional Rankings end up, but admits it's "exciting" to host postseason action.

I honestly like Central Washington losing in the 1st playoff game they play, no matter where they finish and who they play, so if NW just keeps winning, they'll stay in the friendly confines of Bearcat Stadium until at least the Regional Finals.

But Coach T wants to take care of business against Central first, saying flat out he wants to win because it's Senior Day.

Drop in Regional Rankings a Week Late for Griffons

I'm not even going to try to figure out why Missouri Western stayed at No. 3 in the region last week, when they clearly should have dropped. If you take the absence of a slip last week into consideration, the 3-spot fall this week also looks kind of confusing.

Sitting at a good spot a week ago, Western now has all kinds of teams breathing down their necks and they don't get an easy task in hosting Nebraska-Omaha this week.

Western is clearly better than the Mavericks, though they haven't quite showed it lately. I'm trying to move on from the debacle against Southern, but even a 29-6 victory over Emporia hasn't knocked all the leftover rust off my shoulders from that.

I do like 2 things about the Griffons heading into this game. I'll forgive their defense, who has looked great more often than not in recent weeks (save the 2nd half of that pesky Southern game) and you have to love a team that converts 5 of 5 red zone opportunities, with the help of 3 Brad Beckwith field goals.

Six teams in the MIAA, including Northwest Missouri, don't convert red zone opportunities at a 4 for 5 average, so the ability to add points with a reliable field goal kicker can be huge as the Griffons look to advance into the playoffs.

Let's take a look at the 5 MIAA games this week and how I think each one will turn out.

No. 17 Central Missouri (8-2, 6-2) at No. 3 Northwest Missouri (9-1, 8-0)
Bearcat Stadium; Marvyille, Mo. 1 p.m.

After a week off from MIAA football, I head back north to Maryville to watch what will be another playoff-type game.

Like I said above, these teams are going to put up points, especially the Bearcats. I'm tempted to pick Northwest in a laugher, but I really do have faith in Shepard and the Central D to put the offense in the position to get some easy points and keep them in it.

I still think the Mules will have trouble stopping the best 1-2-3 (and this could keep going) punch in the country, but Central hangs around, partly because the Bearcats are hurting on defense, with EJ Hawkins', Ryan Jones' and Sean Paddock's playing status all undertermiend as of Wednesday morning, according to Coach T.

Northwest Missouri 39 Central Missouri 30

Nebraska-Omaha (6-4, 5-3) at No. 15 Missouri Western (8-2, 6-2)
Spratt Stadium; St. Joseph, Mo. 1:30 p.m.

Well Omaha, 8-3 your 1st year in the conference and a chance at 7-4 in a year where you lost just about everything. In completing that task, you might have possibly single-handedly knocked 2 conference rivals out of the playoffs (their victory over Washburn is the reason the Bods need so much help) and appeared in the postseason twice.

I'm not at all convinced that's going to happen though. I think the Griffon defense, ranked 3rd in the conference against the run, lucks out in getting at best a hobbled Levi Terrell. The freshman back, who in just 6 games has amassed 1,098 yards, left last week's game with a high ankle sprain and coach Pat Behrns was not expected to decide if he'll play until the end of the week.

Terrell's 1,098 yards is 26 more than Bearcat back LaRon Council, the only other MIAA back to have already eclipsed 1,000.

If Levi plays and is healthy enough to run wild, we might see another tip to the Mineral Water for Western, but I like Drew Newhart to continue his campaign for 2nd best quarterback in the league, behind Bolles from NW.

No. 23 Washburn (7-3, 5-3) at Emporia State (2-7, 1-6)
Welch Stadium; Emporia, Kan. 1 p.m.

Emporia State picks off a lot of passes. Their 15 is tied for 2nd in the league. But behind only Bolles with 7, Washburn quarterback Dane Simoneau has thrown the least interceptions (8) of the 5 MIAA gunslingers who have played in all of their teams' games.

I tried to find a reason Emporia could hang in this game. That was the only one and I shot it down pretty quickly. Washburn better win and hope their game of leap-frog works out well for them.

Washburn 53 Emporia State 12

Pittsburg State (5-5, 3-5) at Truman State (1-9, 0-8)
Stokes Stadium; Kirksville, Mo. 1 p.m.

It's official. Pittsburg State is, at best, the 6th best team in the conference. Fort Hays could put up an argument for that spot, but the Gorillas' victory over the Tigers gives them the edge.

That might not be up to usual Pitt State standards, but let's give this team a break. I've been critical of the Gorillas, but I don't think there is any doubt, this team will be back. They have 2 young quarterbacks who have shown signs of promise, a young talented backfield and a coach, who contrary to the opinion of some seeking his departure, knows what he's doing.

Chuck Broyles' job security has been a topic I've purposely avoided this season. I got my first inkling that there was unrest among Gorilla fans about Week 4 or 5, when a lifelong Gorilla fan wrote me saying it was time for Chuck to move on.

This fan's main point of conflict with Broyles was the fact that he can't get past Mel Tjeerdsma and the Northwest Missouri Bearcats. Here's the deal. Nobody can get past them. Willie Fritz and Jerry Partridge, each with 13 years at the helms of their programs (Central and Western), haven't fared any better against Tjeerdsma, and both have struggled against Broyles. Neither has been named Coach of the Year either, and we're not seeing any huge movement for the Mules or Griffons to move on.

I think Pittsburg fans are spoiled. And that's okay. You want only the best from your football program, and when you don't get it, you demand action.

That's completely admirable, and really just a sign that the Pitt State program has molded itself into an elite D2 program that owes its fans better than what it has produced this yea.

But slow your role guys. In his 20th year, Chuck is still 152 games ABOVE .500 and will miss the playoffs for just the 5th time.

So to avoid Chuck's 1st losing season, and Pitt's 1st since 1977, the Gorillas have to beat a Truman State team who has not won a conference game this season. The Bulldogs hope to avoid becoming the 11th team since Tjeerdsma's 1994 crew to complete a winless MIAA season.

I wanted to pick against Pittsburg the rest of the way out after only getting it right in 4 of the first 8 weeks, when I picked them every week, but I'm an 'on-paper' kind of guy, and Pittsburg wins there.

Pittsburg State 38 Truman State 20

Fort Hays State (5-5, 3-5) at Missouri Southern (3-6, 3-5)
Fred G. Hughes Stadium; Joplin, Mo. 2 p.m.

Of all the teams you could have picked to finish in 6th place in the conference this year, where did Missouri Southern rank? Well, with a victory over Hays and some help from Truman, the Lions could do just that.

They've been up and down on offense and tend to give up a lot of points, but hey, when you beat a top-tier MIAA team and take care of business against the bottom half, you find yourself on your way out of the cellar.

But Fort Hays State is in the same boat. This team has averaged just over 2 wins the last 4 years and hasn't had more than 2 conference victories since joining the MIAA in 2006.

Both teams have positives to work with this offseason, but I like what Hays has a little bit better. If Southern had more proven offensive weapons, I'd pick the Lions, because Hays' defense ranks last in total yards and scoring, but it just isn't the case.

Fort Hays State 39 Missouri Southern 21

Mail Bag

Aaron,I think you need to be a little less bias in your reporting of the teams. I'm going to guess your a Missourian and that you don't really think any school outside of Missouri really stands up in your mind. In your 10/27 column, if your going to refer to a school be sure to use your (d2football.com) rankings, Washburn should be referred to as No. 24 Washburn, the same as you used when referring to say No. 18 Central Missouri, No. 17 Missouri Western or No. 3 NW Missouri State. And yes I am a very staunch Washburn supporter/alumni, but 2 of the 3 losses they incurred were only by 3 points and they were very close games, which happen to be homecoming games for the host schools, as well. While these losses can't be excused, nor do I honestly think CMU has a shot in hell to make it to the playoffs as your column indicates. If WU doesn't make it neither does CMU. CMU must win against NWMSU and they won't be able to. CMU lost to both Mo West and WU by 15 points each and WU lost to NWMSU by 3 and Mo West lost by 15. While I think CMU has had an impressive season, the best they can hope for is a bowl game and the same for WU, unless they get lucky with key losses around the region. Feel free to send me back a retort if you wish.

Stuart

Re: Washburn

You make mostly great points. Washburn might simply be the best team in the country to not make the playoffs this year. I've picked against them a bunch this year, and they've proven me wrong several times. That's okay, I like that.

Your assumption that I'm a Missourian is correct, but I try not to let that get in the way of what I write.

I forgot to put Washburn's ranking by their name last week. My bad. I also had them incorrectly listed at 3-3 in the MIAA before I got called out and corrected it. I don't hate Washburn, I'm just not that smart.

You're right. It was unlikely Central makes the playoffs last week and it remains so this week, but they have an easy in. All they have to do is win. As I wrote above in my column, Washburn is still alive too.  I appreciate your feedback Stuart and hope that you understand I'm a lover of all-things MIAA football and am not trying to let anything get in the way of me conveying that to you in my columns.

Anybody else want to send me a comment, question or criticism? E-mail me at and you might be in my next column.

 

Return to Columnist

 
         
S1 Copyright © 2000-2006 D2Football.com. All rights reserved.