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Well I'm still not happy they were all here,
but man, did the Lone Star Conference provide us with a good afternoon of
playoff football or what?
In a game I watched on NCAA.com, Abilene
Christian earned their 4th battle with Northwest Missouri in the last 2 seasons
in a come-from-behind victory in Wichita Falls over Midwestern State.
But clearly the real story out of Super Region
4 last week was the Tarleton State Texans and their come-from-behind double-OT
win at Texas A&M Kingsville.
Listening to the game on the internet, I was
laughing as Tarleton kicker Garrett Lindholm lined up for a 64-yard field goal
with the Texans down 3 points with just 5 seconds to play. The announcer even
said despite a slight wind behind Lindholm, it was an unlikely kick.
But, he nailed it, the game went into overtime,
and in the 2nd extra session, Tarleton quarterback Scott Grantham rushed in a
two-point conversion to win the game after a 20-yard touchdown run on 4th down
and 5.
It was literally the best game I never saw.
I'll talk more about Tarleton and their game this week at Central Washington in
a minute, but first let's talk Bearcats.
I think most MIAA fans will agree with my
frustrations over only one conference team making it to the playoffs, but I'm
pretty sure there's not a Bearcat fan in the country that minds seeing Abilene
Christian sneak in and earn a trip to Maryville.
In just the past 2 seasons, these programs have
built quite a history. Abilene beat Northwest in the season openers this year
and last year, but the Bearcats knocked off the Wildcats 45-36 in the Regional
Final in Texas last year en route to their 4th consecutive National Championship
Game appearance.
That was only the 2nd time since 2006 the
Bearcats had traveled anywhere except Florence in the postseason.
This season we're back in Maryville, where
Coach Mel Tjeerdsma and company have not lost since that 1st game of 2008
against Abilene, which is the only game the Bearcats have lost at home since
2005.
The way I see it, Abilene, who I still believe
should have been left out of the playoffs, holds only 1 shot at winning this
football game. They have relied heavily all year on a shut-down defense that
just snuffs out any potential at an opposing offense actually moving the
football.
It's what they used in Week 1 against the
Bearcats this year. Abilene was able to overcome a stagnant offense of their own
by limiting Blake Bolles and company to season lows in rushing (57), passing
(173) and total (230) yards.
That was a long time ago ladies and gentlemen.
That same team, which happens to be led by the 3 best players in the conference
and easily make up the best trio of offensive weaponry in the country, put up
over 650 yards of offense in their last effort against a Central Missouri team
fighting for its postseason lives.
The similarities between the Abilene loss and
the Washburn game, which the Bearcats narrowly escaped with a 22-19 victory, are
evident.
In both cases, solid defenses were able to
limit Harlon Hill candidate LaRon Council. The senior running back was held to
just 69 yards on 20 carries in Abilene and 81 yards on 23 carries (25 and 8 of
which came in OT) against Washburn.
They also limited the big plays by the
Bearcats. Northwest averaged 7.75 plays of 20 or more yards per game this season
in their other 9 games, but managed only 4 combined in the 2 games they
struggled in.
The difference in the Washburn game that
allowed Northwest to come out victorious was Blake Bolles. While he was shut
down consistently throughout the game in Abilene, he was able to come alive in
the Bearcats' last drive of regulation against Washburn.
Stopping Bolles is the only way the Wildcats
stay in this game. It's pretty clear they'll limit LaRon Council's impact. The
Week 1 stifling of NW Missouri was not a fluke. The team only gives up a D-2 low
average 46.2 yards per game.
But can Abilene stop Blake, who has thrown for
at least 275 yards in each of his last 6 games and even more impressively, has
tossed at least 4 touchdowns in 5 of those games?
I wanted to say an emphatic No, but you have to
take into consideration what ACU has been able to do the last 2 weeks. In
back-to-back trips to Wichita Falls, they held the nation's top-rated passer,
Midwestern's Zack Eskridge, to just 1 touchdown toss in each game while
minimizing the damage done from the quarterback position.
Even in the 15-13 loss 2 weeks ago, Midwestern
could not manage a point after the 1st quarter.
Here's the thing that's different about the
Bearcats though. Not only do you have the conference's best quarterback to
contend with, but you have the nation's leading touchdown machine in WR Jake
Soy, and a host of other viable targets that Bolles can pick from on any given
play.
That's why I'm not giving Abilene much of a
shot in this game. They're clearly not what we once thought they were, and while
fine, they made it into the playoffs on a resume that looked decent as a whole,
but lacked any solid recent work history, they just don't match up favorably
with the Bearcats in too many areas.
One of the areas you could make an argument for
the Wildcats in is, despite the presence of LaRon Council, the running game.
Abilene boasts 2 backs, Daryl Richardson and Reggie Brown, with more rushing
yards (970 and 907) than any full-time MIAA back not named Council and scored a
combined 22 touchdowns.
But the thing is, the Bearcat defense is no
lush when it comes to stopping the run. Giving up just 86.8 yards a game, they
rank 12th in the nation and with a week to rest, they should be able to limit
the roles Richardson and Brown play Saturday.
Another big reason I like Northwest in this
game is that Abilene has a freshman quarterback calling the shots for them.
Mitchell Gale has been only mildly effective this year. He's thrown only 10
touchdowns with just over 1,500 yards. You have to wonder if the grind of his
first season behind the wheel of a high-profile D2 program got to him a little
bit and if it factored into the Wildcats' late-season slide.
While Bolles is also just a 1st-year starter,
he has outgrown his experience by leaps and bounds this year. That go-ahead
drive against Washburn was damn-near magical and the season-ending performance
against Central Missouri was an outright pleasure to watch.
So while Gale's lack of time under the
microscope has shown in recent weeks, Blake Bolles is riding high.
Prediction: Alright, alright, I'll get to it.
I'm obviously picking the Bearcats. I don't know what I'll do if the MIAA has
only 1 playoff game after what has been an amazing season, but I'm pretty sure I
won't have to worry about it.
If you take away the 4 National Championship
Game losses, Northwest Missouri has won 12 playoff games in a row by an average
score of 36-18. I think Abilene's defense is better than the 36 but their
offense won't be able to manage the 18.
Northwest Missouri 27 Abilene Christian 13
So what about those Texans, who make the 2,165
mile trip to Ellensburg, Wash., to face what might be the most overrated No. 1
team to ever grace the top spot in the polls.
Sure, their Week 2 victory over defending
national champion Minnesota-Duluth was nice, but man, get over it people.
I can hear it now. But Aaron, Central
Washington beat a D-1 FCS school. Who cares? Idaho State lost its first 10 games
this season.
You just don't get ready for playoff football
playing teams like Western Oregon, Dixie State and Humboldt State twice each to
round out your season.
Now if this team was still winning games in
what was a stacked North Central Conference, I'd give them a little more credit,
but CWU didn't make quite the move UNO did in coming to the MIAA when the NCC
disbanded.
The Wildcats of Central Washington have 2
quarterbacks, who in split time this season, have put up combined numbers that
equal to about 60 percent of what Blake Bolles has put up and their leading
rusher has only reached the end zone 8 times.
I'll be the first to admit. I don't know a
whole heck of a lot about Tarleton or Central Washington. But I find myself
liking Tarleton more and more each week, after looking at their body of work
throughout the season and now that game last week that I can only pray is a
precursor of things to come in the D2 playoffs this year.
Prediction: I think Tarleton rides the emotion
of their dramatic victory last week into a dominant performance on Saturday and
get to take another long road trip to Maryville next week.
Tarleton State 40 Central Washington 23
So if my predictions are right, and they are
usually not, we're going to see Northwest Missouri host its 1st Regional Title
game since a 2006 victory over Chadron State.
Here's to playoff football everybody. See you
in Maryville on Saturday.
Shoot me an e-mail at 
and I might feature you in next week's column.
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