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A couple of convincing victories over 2-7 teams didn't bode so well for two
teams in Super Region 4 last week.
Missouri Western, who stayed No. 3 in the
region after an embarrassing loss to Missouri Southern last week, dropped 2
spots in this week's Regional Rankings despite a 29-6 victory over Emporia
State.
Central Missouri makes out in all of this too,
with Midwestern State - out of the Lone Star Conference - 50-17 winners over
Eastern New Mexico, dropping from 4 to 7 while the Mules jumped 3 spots of their
own to No. 6.
So if the playoffs started today, Central
Missouri would be in. Sorry Warrensburg, they don't.
What lies ahead for Head Coach Willie Fritz and
company might be the most daunting of destinies a team has ever controlled.
You're facing a group of seniors who has never lost a game to a conference rival
and who cannot afford a slip-up, heading into the playoffs with a pretty good
shot at hosting at least 2 postseason games.
To understand any of this, you'll need to look
at this week's Regional Rankings, which I attempted to explain to you a few
weeks ago, yet am left feeling like I'm the one who needs a lesson in how things
work.
Here's the rankings and what Central Washington
- who despite the top seed has the most to prove - and the LSC teams have in
store for them this week. We'll talk more about the MIAA games.
Each team is followed by their current overall
record and last week's Regional Ranking in parenthesis.
1. Central Washington 10-0 (1)
This Week: At 5-4 Western Oregon, who gave the
Wildcats all they could handle in Washington just 3 weeks ago. You can
argue both sides of where Central Washington belongs in this list all day, but
they are where they belong. 10-0 is hard in any league.
2. Northwest's Missouri 9-1 (2)
3. Tarleton State 9-1 (6)
This Week: At 5-5 West Texas A&M, who come
in winners of 4 straight, including victories over other Regionally Ranked LSC
teams Abilene Christian and Angelo State. Tarleton should have been ranked
this high already. They had already beaten ACU and Midwestern.
4. Abilene Christian 8-2 (7)
This Week: Hosts 8-2 Midwestern State, who is
just 1-2 against the other top LSC teams.
5. Missouri Western 8-2 (3)
6. Central Missouri 8-2 (9)
7. Midwestern State 8-2 (4)
This Week: At Abilene Christian, who just
snapped a 2-game losing streak and was the top seed the first several weeks of
the rankings.
8. Texas A&M Kingsville 8-2 (5)
This Week: Hosts 6-4 Angelo State, who is the
only Regionally Ranked team without a shot at gettting in.
9. Washburn 7-3 (8)
10. Angelo State 6-4 (10)
This Week: At Texas A&M Kingsville, who
could very likely move right past higher-seeded teams that lose this week into
the playoffs.
Bods Still Breathing
It seems unlikely, but sitting at No. 9 isn't
the worst spot Washburn could be in right now. It's truly a shame the Ichabod
will likely miss the playoffs, but the fact remains, the Nos. 6, 7 and 8 teams
all play losable games this week, and if all four teams end up with 3 losses, I
gotta think Washburn wins out. They're just better than the rest of them (if
they're all 8-3).
The Power of Three
Five teams moved up or down 3 spots this week
in the Regional Rankings. We may see no 8-3 teams reach the playoffs, while we
could see as many as 3 teams that have 3 losses. Figure that one out for
yourself, I'm moving on.
The Biggest Game in Program History?
Central Missouri has not been to the playoffs
since Keegan Coleman ran his way into the Mule record books in 2002. That single
game, a loss at Northern Colorado, was their only appearance.
At 8-2, with a chance to beat arguably the best
team around, the Mules have a chance to come into the playoffs with more
unexpected momentum than anyone in the country. You see, I'm not really sure
they were supposed to beat UNO a few weeks back, and don't tell me you didn't
leave a little room in the back of your head last week for another Missouri
Southern miracle.
It didn't happen. Central is beating the teams
they oughtta be beating and even gave Washburn a good game until collapsing in
the 2nd half. It wasn't pretty against Missouri Western either, but this Mule
team can play some football.
If ever you've needed to play the perfect game,
this is it. Central this year has found ways to win despite some sloppy play.
They barely snuck by what has become a very bad Emporia State team, their
offense disappeared Week 4 against Pitt State, and they overcame 3 fumbles and a
10-0 deficit in the first 20 minutes of the game last week against Southern to
eek out a 27-17 victory.
If you're down 10-0 with 10 to play in the
first half Saturday, you're out of luck. Quarterback Eric Czerniewski has to be
on point and the Mules have to be scoring, early and often. If Central struggles
offensively, it's over. This team is streaky and needs to start strong because
they're just not going to keep up with the Bearcats if they dont' click early.
I was preaching the same kind of thing when
Washburn went up to Maryville a couple weeks ago. But I dont see this game
turning into the defensive struggle we saw at Homecoming at Northwest.
I do though see the game turning on a big
defensive play. If Central Missouri can get that play from senior free safety
Randy Shepard, my vote for MIAA Defensive Player of the Year, we might just see
the Mules in the playoffs.
If not, and we see the dominating Bearcat
defense making all the plays, the Mules will be heading for Excelsior Springs
for an appearance in the Mineral Water Bowl.
Northwest Just Needs to Take Care of
Business
I've been doing the Bearcat dance the last few
columns so much, I might as well have joined the Bearcat Marching Band. So this
week, I thought I'd concentrate my early attention to other contenders in the
league.
But we are still talking about MIAA football,
so we can't forget about the best team in the conference and maybe the hottest
team in the country.
All right seniors, finish off a perfect
conference career and you have a shot at the road to the National Championship
once again going through Maryville.
This wouldn't be the first time coach Mel
Tjeerdsma has guided a team to an unbeaten 4 years of conference football. Three
years after beginning his Northwest coaching career with an 0-11 season,
Tjeerdsma rattled off 41 consecutive conference victories, including all 9 games
in 1997-2000 and the first 5 games of 2001.
But hey, Bearcat fans. You could lose this
game.
Whoa. What? Really? Yeah, it can happen. Then
what?
One thing is certain. They'll lose their
1st-round bye. Could they be forced to travel in the 1st-round of the playoffs?
That depends on what else happens.
In some senses, the Bearcats have as much to
lose as anyone going into the final week of the season.
Tjeerdsma told me he isn't concerned with how
the Regional Rankings end up, but admits it's "exciting" to host
postseason action.
I honestly like Central Washington losing in
the 1st playoff game they play, no matter where they finish and who they play,
so if NW just keeps winning, they'll stay in the friendly confines of Bearcat
Stadium until at least the Regional Finals.
But Coach T wants to take care of business
against Central first, saying flat out he wants to win because it's Senior Day.
Drop in Regional Rankings a Week Late for
Griffons
I'm not even going to try to figure out why
Missouri Western stayed at No. 3 in the region last week, when they clearly
should have dropped. If you take the absence of a slip last week into
consideration, the 3-spot fall this week also looks kind of confusing.
Sitting at a good spot a week ago, Western now
has all kinds of teams breathing down their necks and they don't get an easy
task in hosting Nebraska-Omaha this week.
Western is clearly better than the Mavericks,
though they haven't quite showed it lately. I'm trying to move on from the
debacle against Southern, but even a 29-6 victory over Emporia hasn't knocked
all the leftover rust off my shoulders from that.
I do like 2 things about the Griffons heading
into this game. I'll forgive their defense, who has looked great more often than
not in recent weeks (save the 2nd half of that pesky Southern game) and you have
to love a team that converts 5 of 5 red zone opportunities, with the help of 3
Brad Beckwith field goals.
Six teams in the MIAA, including Northwest
Missouri, don't convert red zone opportunities at a 4 for 5 average, so the
ability to add points with a reliable field goal kicker can be huge as the
Griffons look to advance into the playoffs.
Let's take a look at the 5 MIAA games this week
and how I think each one will turn out.
No. 17 Central Missouri (8-2, 6-2) at No. 3
Northwest Missouri (9-1, 8-0)
Bearcat Stadium; Marvyille, Mo. 1 p.m.
After a week off from MIAA football, I head
back north to Maryville to watch what will be another playoff-type game.
Like I said above, these teams are going to put
up points, especially the Bearcats. I'm tempted to pick Northwest in a laugher,
but I really do have faith in Shepard and the Central D to put the offense in
the position to get some easy points and keep them in it.
I still think the Mules will have trouble
stopping the best 1-2-3 (and this could keep going) punch in the country, but
Central hangs around, partly because the Bearcats are hurting on defense, with
EJ Hawkins', Ryan Jones' and Sean Paddock's playing status all undertermiend as
of Wednesday morning, according to Coach T.
Northwest Missouri 39 Central Missouri 30
Nebraska-Omaha (6-4, 5-3) at No. 15 Missouri
Western (8-2, 6-2)
Spratt Stadium; St. Joseph, Mo. 1:30 p.m.
Well Omaha, 8-3 your 1st year in the conference
and a chance at 7-4 in a year where you lost just about everything. In
completing that task, you might have possibly single-handedly knocked 2
conference rivals out of the playoffs (their victory over Washburn is the reason
the Bods need so much help) and appeared in the postseason twice.
I'm not at all convinced that's going to happen
though. I think the Griffon defense, ranked 3rd in the conference against the
run, lucks out in getting at best a hobbled Levi Terrell. The freshman back, who
in just 6 games has amassed 1,098 yards, left last week's game with a high ankle
sprain and coach Pat Behrns was not expected to decide if he'll play until the
end of the week.
Terrell's 1,098 yards is 26 more than Bearcat
back LaRon Council, the only other MIAA back to have already eclipsed 1,000.
If Levi plays and is healthy enough to run
wild, we might see another tip to the Mineral Water for Western, but I like Drew
Newhart to continue his campaign for 2nd best quarterback in the league, behind
Bolles from NW.
No. 23 Washburn (7-3, 5-3) at Emporia State
(2-7, 1-6)
Welch Stadium; Emporia, Kan. 1 p.m.
Emporia State picks off a lot of passes. Their
15 is tied for 2nd in the league. But behind only Bolles with 7, Washburn
quarterback Dane Simoneau has thrown the least interceptions (8) of the 5 MIAA
gunslingers who have played in all of their teams' games.
I tried to find a reason Emporia could hang in
this game. That was the only one and I shot it down pretty quickly. Washburn
better win and hope their game of leap-frog works out well for them.
Washburn 53 Emporia State 12
Pittsburg State (5-5, 3-5) at Truman State
(1-9, 0-8)
Stokes Stadium; Kirksville, Mo. 1 p.m.
It's official. Pittsburg State is, at best, the
6th best team in the conference. Fort Hays could put up an argument for that
spot, but the Gorillas' victory over the Tigers gives them the edge.
That might not be up to usual Pitt State
standards, but let's give this team a break. I've been critical of the Gorillas,
but I don't think there is any doubt, this team will be back. They have 2 young
quarterbacks who have shown signs of promise, a young talented backfield and a
coach, who contrary to the opinion of some seeking his departure, knows what
he's doing.
Chuck Broyles' job security has been a topic
I've purposely avoided this season. I got my first inkling that there was unrest
among Gorilla fans about Week 4 or 5, when a lifelong Gorilla fan wrote me
saying it was time for Chuck to move on.
This fan's main point of conflict with Broyles
was the fact that he can't get past Mel Tjeerdsma and the Northwest Missouri
Bearcats. Here's the deal. Nobody can get past them. Willie Fritz and Jerry
Partridge, each with 13 years at the helms of their programs (Central and
Western), haven't fared any better against Tjeerdsma, and both have struggled
against Broyles. Neither has been named Coach of the Year either, and we're not
seeing any huge movement for the Mules or Griffons to move on.
I think Pittsburg fans are spoiled. And that's
okay. You want only the best from your football program, and when you don't get
it, you demand action.
That's completely admirable, and really just a
sign that the Pitt State program has molded itself into an elite D2 program that
owes its fans better than what it has produced this yea.
But slow your role guys. In his 20th year,
Chuck is still 152 games ABOVE .500 and will miss the playoffs for just the 5th
time.
So to avoid Chuck's 1st losing season, and
Pitt's 1st since 1977, the Gorillas have to beat a Truman State team who has not
won a conference game this season. The Bulldogs hope to avoid becoming the 11th
team since Tjeerdsma's 1994 crew to complete a winless MIAA season.
I wanted to pick against Pittsburg the rest of
the way out after only getting it right in 4 of the first 8 weeks, when I picked
them every week, but I'm an 'on-paper' kind of guy, and Pittsburg wins there.
Pittsburg State 38 Truman State 20
Fort Hays State (5-5, 3-5) at Missouri
Southern (3-6, 3-5)
Fred G. Hughes Stadium; Joplin, Mo. 2 p.m.
Of all the teams you could have picked to
finish in 6th place in the conference this year, where did Missouri Southern
rank? Well, with a victory over Hays and some help from Truman, the Lions could
do just that.
They've been up and down on offense and tend to
give up a lot of points, but hey, when you beat a top-tier MIAA team and take
care of business against the bottom half, you find yourself on your way out of
the cellar.
But Fort Hays State is in the same boat. This
team has averaged just over 2 wins the last 4 years and hasn't had more than 2
conference victories since joining the MIAA in 2006.
Both teams have positives to work with this
offseason, but I like what Hays has a little bit better. If Southern had more
proven offensive weapons, I'd pick the Lions, because Hays' defense ranks last
in total yards and scoring, but it just isn't the case.
Fort Hays State 39 Missouri Southern 21
Mail Bag
Aaron,I think you need to be a little less
bias in your reporting of the teams. I'm going to guess your a Missourian and
that you don't really think any school outside of Missouri really stands up in
your mind. In your 10/27 column, if your going to refer to a school be sure to
use your (d2football.com) rankings, Washburn should be referred to as No. 24
Washburn, the same as you used when referring to say No. 18 Central Missouri,
No. 17 Missouri Western or No. 3 NW Missouri State. And yes I am a very staunch
Washburn supporter/alumni, but 2 of the 3 losses they incurred were only by 3
points and they were very close games, which happen to be homecoming games for
the host schools, as well. While these losses can't be excused, nor do I
honestly think CMU has a shot in hell to make it to the playoffs as your column
indicates. If WU doesn't make it neither does CMU. CMU must win against NWMSU
and they won't be able to. CMU lost to both Mo West and WU by 15 points each and
WU lost to NWMSU by 3 and Mo West lost by 15. While I think CMU has had an
impressive season, the best they can hope for is a bowl game and the same for
WU, unless they get lucky with key losses around the region. Feel free to send
me back a retort if you wish.
Stuart
Re: Washburn
You make mostly great points. Washburn might
simply be the best team in the country to not make the playoffs this year. I've
picked against them a bunch this year, and they've proven me wrong several
times. That's okay, I like that.
Your assumption that I'm a Missourian is
correct, but I try not to let that get in the way of what I write.
I forgot to put Washburn's ranking by their
name last week. My bad. I also had them incorrectly listed at 3-3 in the MIAA
before I got called out and corrected it. I don't hate Washburn, I'm just not
that smart.
You're right. It was unlikely Central makes the
playoffs last week and it remains so this week, but they have an easy in. All
they have to do is win. As I wrote above in my column, Washburn is still alive
too. I appreciate your feedback Stuart and hope that you understand I'm a
lover of all-things MIAA football and am not trying to let anything get in the
way of me conveying that to you in my columns.
Anybody else want to send me a comment,
question or criticism? E-mail me at 
and you might be in my next column.
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