Two weeks ago, Ron Roberts talked as if his Delta State football team had eliminated their strongest competition for the national championship after blasting North Alabama. I wrote at the time that I admired his bravado. Unfortunately for Roberts and his Statesmen, Pittsburg State proved that tough play outperforms tough words.

Despite turning the ball over five times, the Gorillas still battered the Statesmen by 26 points. It was another case of a team with a physical defense and downhill running game beating a team with similar ability but an ineffective style of play.

For the life of me, I can't understand why teams like Delta State insist on playing what I would term "sideways" football: lots of yards gained between the 20's with screens and passes to the edges, but an inability or unwillingness to get physical offensively and just plow straight ahead when necessary. The Statesmen scored zero touchdowns in six trips inside the PSU red zone and had similar red zone issues in last season's title game loss to Minnesota-Duluth. When your main short-yardage play is a predictable quarterback sneak and your most physical offensive player a wide receiver, you're going to have problems winning the big games.

The other semifinal was much closer on the scoreboard, but I always felt that Wayne State was in control of the game. The Warrior defense controlled the Winston-Salem State offensive line for the most part, and the WSU offense did a pretty good job of playing with the lead. WSSU was able to hang around and the Rams weren't overmatched by any means, but a critical fumble by quarterback Kameron Smith and two huge dropped passes that could have been touchdowns really hurt WSSU. WSSU is a fairly young team, so maybe this loss is something the Rams can build on in the future.

National Championship Game

Wayne State (12-3) versus Pittsburg State (12-1)
TV: ESPN2 10 AM Central

The time slot is far from ideal and this is one of the disadvantages of having the championship game moved back a week, as it has been the last two seasons. When the game was played a week earlier, D2 had the limelight because the FBS bowl games hadn't started yet (there are four bowl games on Saturday) and the D3 and FCS title games were always played the week after.

Now D2 is competing with all those other events (in addition to college basketball) for a time slot. I always liked in the past when the championship game started about 2 PM, so the lights were on and the sun setting as we got into the fourth quarter of the game. That just seemed like a fitting atmosphere to close out a season. Now the game gets over and it's time to go get lunch. Seems anticlimactic.

Pittsburg State, of course, is one of D2's most prominent programs. But the Gorillas are coming off their worst two year stretch in over 30 years, going a combined 11-12 in 2009 and 2010. PSU was picked fifth by the coaches in the preseason MIAA poll. It became apparent about halfway through the year that this was a team on the short list of national title contenders, but it certainly didn't appear that way going into the season.

Wayne State is a true Cinderella team. The Warriors were unhappy about missing out on the playoffs last season after going 9-2, and it appeared that WSU had blown its chance this year when they lost their regular season finale to Findlay in overtime. But the Warriors slipped into the field as a six seed in Super Region Three and have won four straight road games to get to this point. WSU will also become the first D2 team to play 16 games in a season. A breakdown of each team, followed by prognosis on the game:

Pittsburg State

Total Offense: 454 yards per game (263 rushing, 191 passing)
Total Defense: 312 yards per game (109 rushing, 203 passing)
Scoring Offense: 41 points per game
Scoring Defense: 20 points per game
Turnover Margin: +8 (29 lost, 37 gained)
Players to Watch:

6 QB Zac Dickey (1097 rushing yards, 10 TDs; 2100 passing yards, 16 TDs)
5 WR John Brown (1117 receiving yards, 12 TDs; 3 TDs on returns)
11 LB Nate Dreiling (MIAA defensive MVP, 124 tackles, 7 interceptions)
98 DE Gus Toca (52 tackles, 11 sacks)
46 DE Spencer Worthington (44 tackles, 8 sacks)
3 CB Elijah Olabode (3 interceptions, 11 pass breakups)

Wayne State

Total Offense: 388 yards per game (200 rushing, 188 passing)
Total Defense: 357 yards per game (119 rushing, 238 passing)
Scoring Offense: 35 points per game
Scoring Defense: 23 points per game
Turnover Margin: +11 (23 lost, 34 gained)
Players to watch:

19 RB Josh Renel (1395 rushing yards 14 TDs, 641 return yards, 24 pass receptions)
24 RB Toney Davis (1379 rushing yards, 20 TDs)
1 WR Troy Burrell (1620 receiving yards, 15 TDs)
79 LT Joe Long (Super Region Three Upshaw Award winner)
8 S Jeremy Jones (GLIAC DB of the year, 92 tackles, 9 interceptions)
54 LB Ed Viverette (74 tackles, 7.5 sacks)

Keys to the game for Pittsburg State:

-Take care of the football. The Gorillas have fumbled the ball 36 times this year (losing 19) and had the ball simply ripped away by Delta State defenders several times last week. Quarterback Zac Dickey, in particular, must do a better job in this regard. Wayne State's defense feasts on turnovers, so ball security must be the number one priority of the PSU offense.

-Stop the run. The Gorillas have a very good run defense, but WSU has tremendous talent at the offensive tackles in Joe Long and Will Khoury, which helps to neutralize PSU's talent at defensive end. If PSU can succeed in taking away the WSU run and make them one-dimensional, they stand a very good chance of winning.

-Limit big plays from Troy Burrell. Burrell accounts for 58% of WSU's passing yardage and is dangerous on screens or routes down the field. PSU must limit his touches and tackle well in space when he does get the football.

Keys to the game for Wayne State:

-Find away to run the football against the Gorilla defense. The Warriors cannot win this game if PSU shuts down the run. A further concern is the health of Davis, who suffered an injury and missed a good chunk of the semifinal game last week. Renel is a good back, but he may be hard pressed to do it all himself against a very tough PSU defense.

-Win the turnover battle. I believe if this is an error free game, PSU's defense and running game will eventually take over. The equalizer for WSU could be forcing some turnovers, especially if the Warriors can be plus two or better in turnover differential.

-Stop the big plays from the PSU offense and special teams. John Brown has torched PSU's last two opponents with his returns and long pass receptions. It's tough to take him totally out of the game with the way the Gorillas scheme and move him around, but WSU must prevent him from making the big play.

Prediction: Can Wayne State get up for one more game? I know it's the national championship and there are no excuses. But WSU has played football 16 consecutive weeks with nine of the last 12 on the road, including all four playoff games. Contrast that to Pittsburg State who has had two off weeks this season and played its last six games at home. At what point does physical and mental fatigue become too much for WSU to overcome against a PSU team that should be relatively fresh?

The wild card in this game is turnovers. If WSU can create critical turnovers as they have during all four playoff games and end up on the plus side of the turnover margin, they can win this football game. If it is a clean game with no turnovers, I like Pittsburg State. The Gorillas have more talent defensively and I believe they can do enough on offense to control the game. Although I like PSU to win, the last ten title games have been decided by a touchdown or less and I see no reason why this game should be any different. Pittsburg State 27 Wayne State 23.

Mailbag

[Q] What ever happened with Carson-Newman? They used to be one of the best teams year after year and now they are rarely heard from, in fact I believe they had a losing record this year? With Coach Sparks still there, why aren't they winning?

Cory

[A] C-N reached the national semifinals two years ago, so it's not as if the program has completely collapsed. But you are right in assessing that the Eagles are not the same as they were in the late 90's when they reached three national championship games in four years.

As for reasons why C-N wasn't able to maintain its dominance, it's probably a combination of things. For one, C-N is a private school. This division is dominated by public schools, largely because the partial scholarship model that D2 schools use creates a big advantage for the cheaper public schools.

Many private schools such as Abilene Christian, New Haven, Augustana, Ashland and now North Greenville have made big strides over the last five years, but the fact still remains that no private school has played in a title game since 1999, when C-N last did it. C-N is also the only private school in D2 history to play in multiple championship games, so it was quite a feat that the Eagles were so dominant in the first place.

Further enhancing the difficulty for C-N to maintain an elite program is that the South Atlantic Conference caps football scholarship equivalencies in the mid 20's. Give Ken Sparks another 10 scholarships and I bet it would make a huge difference in the quality of team on the field.

Another factor would be that the SAC as a conference has become deeper. Ten years ago C-N and Catawba were the dominant programs and everyone else an afterthought, but now programs like Wingate, Mars Hill, Lenoir-Rhyne, Newberry and Tusculum have gotten to the point where they can contend in the conference and they can compete in recruiting. The SAC has a tight geographic footprint, so if each one of those other teams is getting one or two quality players a year that C-N used to get, it makes it more difficult for the Eagles to maintain the talent level and depth they used to have.

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