The pieces to the playoff puzzle usually start to fall into place going into the last weekend of the regular season, but I don't believe that to be the case this year.

With five of the ten ranked teams in Super Region One losing last week, it has apparently opened the door for at least one team (East Stroudsburg) that was completely off the radar just a few days ago.

In Super Region Four, there are still eight teams with two losses or less, and every single one of them plays a tough game this week.

And in Super Region Three, Mars Hill lost to 3-6 Tusculum, and still managed to stay in the fifth spot in the regional poll.

I will once again try my best to give a region-by-region playoff analysis but, especially in regions one and four, the playoff picture is far from crystal clear at this point:

Super Region One (Current Regional Ranking)

1. West Liberty 9-1
2. California 8-2
3. Shippensburg 8-2
4. Bentley 8-1
5. Bloomsburg 8-2
6. East Stroudsburg 7-3
7. Edinboro 7-3
8. Charleston 8-2
9. Clarion 7-3
10. Fayetteville State 7-3

This region seems fairly straightforward, but I also thought it appeared that way last week until a whole bunch of upsets threw things off.

West Liberty is a lock to reach the playoffs and should retain the top seed with a win this week. The winner of the PSAC title game between California and Shippensburg will get the second seed.

Bentley needs only to stay in the top eight in the region and should also reach the playoffs, win or lose on Saturday.

So that leaves three spots up for grabs and I think those three spots are difficult to peg. The loser of the PSAC title game will have a high strength of schedule, so chances are that team will still get in.

Bloomsburg and ESU also appear to control their own destiny, but neither team has a slam dunk win this week.

Edinboro and Charleston each stand at least a slim chance, but both will need a couple of upsets above them.

What will be interesting to watch is what happens if Fayetteville State can win the CIAA title game against Bowie State. The Broncos only need to get into the top eight and with current nine seed Clarion playing a winless opponent, FSU could jump them in the rankings and be just an upset away from reaching the top eight. Could this be another year where earned access comes into play?

Super Regional Two

1. North Alabama 10-0
2. Carson-Newman 8-2
3. Albany State 8-1
4. North Carolina-Pembroke 8-1
5. Mars Hill 6-3
6. Arkansas Tech 7-2
7. Morehouse 6-3
8. Benedict 7-3
9. Wingate 6-3
10. Fort Valley State 6-4

This region is a bit easier to figure out. I think it's a virtual certainty that the top four teams in the poll will get in. I'm guessing that it is possible that UNCP could slip a spot based on a weak strength of schedule, but I don't think there is any way the Braves fall out of the top six.

ATU has a tough game with Harding, but the Wonder Boys have been red hot over the last month and should take care of the Bisons.

The last playoff spot is what gets interesting. Mars Hill will be in if it can beat Wingate, but what happens if the Bulldogs win that game. Does Wingate get a big enough bump from a win like that to jump into the top six? Could FVSU jump up there instead if it can knock off Albany State? I don't profess to know the answers to those questions.

Super Regional Three

1. Minnesota State (10-0)
2. Minnesota-Duluth (9-1)
3. Grand Valley State (9-1)
4. Nebraska-Kearney (9-1)
5. Saginaw Valley State (8-2)
6. Hillsdale (8-2)
7. Bemidji State (7-3)
8. Wayne State (7-3)
9. Findlay (7-3)
10. Winona State (7-3)

Like Super Region Two, this region is also fairly straightforward. The top four teams will all get in win or lose this week. All four play decent opponents, so there is a chance that there could be some shakeup at the top if there is an upset.

Current five seed SVSU should easily take care of a bad Ferris State team, and the Cardinals have a high SOS so they should be in very good shape. SVSU could even possible sneak up and nab a first round home game if there is an upset above them.

Then there is Hillsdale. As I noted last week, the Chargers SOS is falling like a rock and will take another hit by playing winless Tiffin this week. Hillsdale caught a break with Augustana losing last week and dropping out and also find themselves insulated by two spots from Findlay in the poll this week (Hillsdale and Findlay would flip if they were next to each other in the poll based on head to head).

Can the Chargers hold off all of these 3-loss teams and keep the six spot? My best guess right now is yes, but I think there will likely be some nervous folks in Hillsdale as the championship bracket is being unveiled.

Super Region Four

1. Central Washington 10-0
2. Northwest Missouri State 9-1
3. Tarleton State 9-1
4. Abilene Christian 8-2
5. Missouri Western State 8-2
6. Central Missouri 8-2
7. Midwestern State 8-2
8. Texas A&M-Kingsville 8-2
9. Washburn 7-3
10. Angelo State 6-4

CWU and NWMSU are in the playoffs no matter what happens. Both have tough games this week, though, so there could be a bit of shakeup at the top.

After that, it is literally a crapshoot. TSU looks good with a 9-1 record, but the Texans have a weak SOS and have to play a red hot West Texas A&M team this week.

Logic dictates that the last four playoff spots will come from the group of teams that are currently seeded three through eight, but they all either play each other or have a very a tough game this week. It appears as if the winner of the Abilene Christian - Midwestern State game will claim one spot, but after that your guess is as good as mine.

It must be noted that Washburn still has a slim shot at a berth, especially if UCM, MSU and TAMUK lose this week (which is completely plausible).

Top Games this Week

PSAC Championship Game
California (8-2) at Shippensburg (8-2)

The Red Raiders have had some impressive wins recently and will bring a team that is opportunistic and solid offensively into this game.

But simply put, the Vulcans are better. California is very talented and has gotten better as the season wore on to the point where they have been dominating opponents over the past month. Shippensburg is good enough to stay in the game if they don't commit turnovers, but it will take a perfect game to win. California 29 Shippensburg 20.

CIAA Championship Game (played in Durham, NC)
Bowie State (6-4) vs Fayetteville State (7-3)

BSU is very lucky to be in this game? literally. The Bulldogs had to survive a 3-way coin flip with Virginia Union and Elizabeth City State to decide the CIAA East Division and earn a second shot at the Broncos this season.

FSU won the first game between the two teams by a 30-20 margin. I think the Broncos will win again. They are better both offensively and defensively and BSU comes into this game on a two game losing streak. Fayetteville State 27 Bowie State 16.

Wayne State (6-4) at Grand Valley State (9-1)

GVSU is going to win the game, but this will be our last chance to see WSU running back Joique Bell perform. Bell has already rushed for 2010 yards and 29 touchdowns, and in my opinion, can wrap up the Harlon Hill Trophy with a good performance in this game. Grand Valley 34 Wayne State 17.

Wingate (6-3) at Mars Hill (6-3)

Both teams still have a shot at the playoffs, but both are also coming off of demoralizing losses. I liked MHC because the Lions are at home and they have a great running back in Jonas Randolph. Mars Hill 26 Wingate 24.

Abilene Christian (8-2) at Midwestern State (8-2)

With a playoff berth likely going to the winner, I expect this game to be a great one. The ACU offense finally woke up in a win over Texas A&M-Kingsville last week, but MSU's defense is no slouch and the Mustangs also have a terrific quarterback in Zack Eskridge. Midwestern State 27 Abilene Christian 23.

West Texas A&M (5-5) at Tarleton State (9-1)

The Buffaloes have recovered from an awful start and are now playing like the team many thought they had the potential to be. TSU will have revenge on its mind after season-ending losses to WTAMU have kept the Texans out of the playoffs in three of the last four years.

TSU has been strong and consistent defensively, and I think the Texans can run the ball well enough to win this game. Tarleton State 31 West Texas A&M 24.

Central Missouri (8-2) at Northwest Missouri State (9-1)

NWMSU has already wrapped up another outright MIAA crown, but the Bearcat seniors can also wrap up an unbeaten career in conference play by winning this game. That is impressive.

NWMSU has been banged up, especially on the defensive side of the football. That should give the Mules at least a glimmer of hope that they can stay in this game if they play perfectly. UCM has struggled to stop the better offensive teams in the league, however, and the Bearcats can score points. Northwest Missouri State 37 Central Missouri 20.

Minnesota-Duluth (9-1) at Winona State (7-3)

The Warriors will try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive by upsetting the Bulldogs. The problem is that WSU will have to stop Isaac Odim and the UMD running game, and I don't believe the Warriors have the horses to do so. At least not for four quarters. Minnesota-Duluth 31 Winona State 20.

Mailbag

Why does there seem to be such a lack of parity in Division II?

Sean

Your question is a bit vague but I will attempt to answer it the best I can. If you mean a lack of parity in comparison to Division I, I would agree with you. There is not as much "depth" to Division II.

I believe that the level of parity within a division decreases with the level of play, meaning that D-I has the most parity within its ranks while D-III has the least.

One reason for this is economics. Division I athletics is big money and there are more universities doing whatever they can to win relative to Division II.

Another reason would be scholarship money. At the FBS level, virtually every school operates with 85 scholarships. So although some schools have the tradition and facilities that give them an edge, everyone is working with equal scholarship money, which is an equalizer.

In Division II, I would estimate that only about one third of the teams are operating with a full slate of scholarships. So while there are also schools at this level that have the tradition and facilities, many of those same schools are also offering more scholarship dollars than a good portion of the rest of the division, which compounds their advantage.

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