West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[Columbuseer]

FYI

A Dummy’s Observations on MEC WLU vs Fairmont 3/8/26

WLU 93 – Fairmont 88

Fairmont State (FS) Preview
FS has about 3,300 students (as of 2023). They have a very deep and talented team, with strong inside and outside players. It is purported that FS has the most resources (as in NIL, also known as pay-to-play) in the MEC to acquire players.
They have 3 former D1 players from Marshall, Univ. Md BC, and Wright State. They are loaded with athletic, tall, long players, who can score at all three levels as well as quick guards. They have the former Concord big man and former MEC Defensive Player of the Pear in Diop.
They have quality depth; there are 8 players that play16 minutes or more and no one plays over 29 minutes.
Apparently, they have designed their roster to combat the fatigue generated by WLU and to score a high percentage of open looks from three or attack the rim when they break the trap.

Team Stats (26-5, 17-3)
Overall Team Statistics
Statistic	Fairmont St.	Opponents
Scoring
Total Points	2811	2307
Points Per Game	90.7	74.4
Scoring Margin	16.3	--
Shooting
FG: Made-Attempted	980-1963	781-1877
FG: Percentage	0.499	0.416
FG: Per Game	31.6	25.2
3PT: Made-Attempted	336-854	282-814
3PT: Percentage	0.393	0.346
3PT: Per Game	10.8	9.1
FT: Made-Attempted	515-716	463-627
FT: Percentage	0.719	0.738
FT: Per Game	16.6	14.9
Rebounding
Total	1227	978
Per Game	39.6	31.5
Margin	8	--
Assists
Total	547	369
Per Game	17.6	11.9
Turnovers
Total	385	430
Per Game	12.4	13.9
Margin	1.5	--
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.4	0.9
Points Off Turnovers	18.9	13.3
Steals
Total	269	209
Per Game	8.7	6.7
Blocks
Total	118	71
Per Game	3.8	2.3
Attendance
Total	11850	4295
Per Game	15-790	13-330

Fairmont State (FS) Game Plan
The FS strategy seemed to be:

• PASSED – Mix up their defenses, switching between zone and man-to-man. In the first half, the zone slowed down the WLU offense, as they took additional time to get bell passed into the middle of the zone at the foul line. Fairmont is an excellent defensive team with their length and quickness.
• PASSED – Get the ball inside to their taller players. Fairmont got 52 points in the paint, compared to 32 for WLU.

Stat	FS Season Avg	FS avg for WLU game	WLU season Avg	WLU avg for FS game
FG%	49.9%	49.2%	50%	54.4^%
3FG%	39.3%	26.1%	34.9%	44.8%
# 3FG Made	10.8	6	10.6	13
FT%	71.9%	69.2%	70.4%	78.3%
# FT Made	16.6	18	19.1	18

• PASSED – Limit the turnover margin. FS had 19 turnovers while forcing 23 WLU turnovers. FS got 23 points off turnovers to 19 points for WLU.
• PASSED– Dominate rebounding, by leveraging their height and strength advantage. FS won offensive rebounds 11-6 and overall rebounds 33-32. FS won second chance points 12-5.
• FAILED– Shoot their average FG % and 3FG%. FS shot only 26% 3FG, far below their elite 39.3% average.

Keys to the WLU Game
FS is a very athletic, tall, and talented team with ex-D1 players, that plays excellent defense and who can score at all three levels. They present numerous matchup problems against the shorter (overall) WLU team. When one plays such a strong team, WLU cannot have a subpar shooting performance (like WLU had in the first meeting) and must keep FS near their average shooting %. WLU cannot get dominated on the boards by this much taller team (unlike the first meeting).
Often, victory often depends on a combination of 3 factors – true shooting %, offensive rebounding, and points off turnover margin. Teams that are deficient in one factor can win by dominating in one or more other factors, with the objective of getting sufficiently more FGA or FTA to offset a lower true shooting percentage, resulting in higher points per possession.

• • True Shooting % - WLU 69.3% FS 57.6%, aided by cold FS 3FG (26.1%) and elite WLU 3FG (44.8%). This disparity overcame the fact that FS got 8 more FGA.
  • Offensive Rebounding – FS 11 WLU 6
  • Turnovers – FS 19 – WLU 23. – very unusual for WLU
  • Points off Turnovers – WLU 20 FS 19

Fortunately, the large lead that WLU got in the first half due to forcing turnovers and shooting much better from three, enabled a lead from which FS could not recover. WLU had an offensive rating of 111, compared to 104 for FS (points per 100 possessions)

Areas for Improvement for WLU

• End-of-game player situational awareness. WLU committed 7 turnovers in the last 4 minutes of the game on poor decisions or soft passes. I wonder if the fatigue from the previous strenuous 2 games was finally taking their toll, in addition to a highly energetic FS defense.
• Players are still telegraphing passes and throwing passes too casually.
• Playoff-level teams like FS will strip the ball when WLU tries to split defenders on the dribble in half-court. FS had quick, active hands.

[Columbuseer]

FYI Data Analytics for the mathematically-inclined folks...
Team Single Game Advanced Stats

• Red cell indicates 20% below D1 median value, green cell is above 90^th percentile D1 value (where D1 data available)
• D1 data is used for comparison because D2 data is not readily available

WLU vs MEC Fairmont 3/8/26 game 31
Statistic	Fairmont MEC	WLU	WLU Season Avg	WLU Season Totals	2024 D1 Median Value For Comparison
FGM	32	31	34.5	1071	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
FGA	65	57	70.6	2190	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
FTM	18	18	19.1	593	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
FTA	26	23	25.9	803	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
Three Point FGM	6	13	10.6	328	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
three Point FGA	23	29	29.6	919	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
Off REB	11	6	12.0	373	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
Def REB	22	26	25.5	791	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
Total REB	33	43	37.9	1175	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
Personal Fouls	20	32	19.6	609
Assists	17	30	18.8	584	d1 median 13.7 90th percentile 16.5
Turnovers	19	23	12.8	396	d1 median 11.6 90th percentile 10.2
Blocks	0	2	2.3	70	d1 median 3.4 90th percentile 4.7
Steals	15	8	12.4	385	d1 median 7.0 90th percentile 8.7
Turnovers Forced	23	19	20.2	627	d1 median 12.4 90th pctile 14.6
Points off Turnovers	10	20			N/A
Points in the Paint	52	32			N/A
Second Chance Points	12	5			N/A
Fast Break Points	32	28			N/A
Bench Points	27	35			N/A
Points	88	93	98.8	3063	D1 median 74.9 90th pctile 81
Games Played	31	31	31.0	31
Number of Possessions	84	84	82.8	2566	median 70.7 90th pctile 74.6
Pts per Possession	1.04	1.11	1.2	1.19	median 1.034 90th pctile 1.134
Effective Possession Ratio EPR =(Possessions + Off. Rebounds - Turnovers) / Possessions	0.91	0.798	1.0	0.991	median .953 90th pctile .994
Offensive Rating - pts/100 possessions	104	111	119.4	119	median 103.4 90th pctile 113.4
Shooting Efficiency (FGM +0.5*3ptFGM) /FGA	53.8%	65.8%	0.6	56%	median 50.5% 90th pctile 55.4%
True Shooting % (0.5*(PTS*(FGA+(0.44*FTA)))	57.6%	69.3%	0.6	60%	median 54.2% 90th pctile 58.9%
FT %	69.2%	78.3%	0.7	74%	median 71.9% 90th pctile 77.9%
FG%	49.2%	54.4%	0.5	49%	median 44.1% 90th pctile 47.9%
3PT%	26.1%	44.8%	0.4	36%	median 33.3% 90th pctile 37.4%
2PT%	61.9%	64.3%	0.6	58%	median is about 47.8% 90th pctile 50.8%
Turnovers Per Game	19	23	12.8	13	median 12.1 90th pctile 10.4
Turnover Margin (+ is good)	4	-4	19.5	7.5	D1 median 0.6 90th percentile 3
Turnover %	22.5%	27.3%	0.2	15%	typicall D1 is 15% to 20%
Forced Live Ball Turnovers % of total Forced Turnovers	65.2%	42.1%	0.6	61%	D1 90th percentile is 55%
Points per Opponent Turnover	0.43	1.05	N/A	N/A	N/A
Assists % of FG Made	53.1%	96.8%	0.5	55%	median 51.6% 90th pctile 59.8%
Assist to Turnover Ratio	0.89	1.30	1.5	1.47	median 1.087 90th pctile 1.487
Defensive Rebound %	78.6%	70.3%	0.7	71%	median 72.3% 90th pctile 75.9%
Offensive Rebound %	29.7%	21.4%	0.3	32%	median 28.1% 90th pctile 33.7%
Scoring Margin	-5	5	15.8	-491	Median 3 pts, 90th pctile 11 pts.

[Scrub]

More of the same as we saw in November in Richmond. Terrible first half against the VUU zone.

Gotta do better adjusting in the second. Never were able to recover from the terrible start in that game back in November.

[Scrub]

U. G. L. Y.

I really thought having seen the VUU zone once the Hilltoppers would have a plan for picking it apart. They clearly did not.

I never thought this was an Elite 8-worthy edition of the Hilltoppers, but you hate to see it end with such a whimper. You'd like to see a better showing (even in a loss) than this cringe-worthy, unwatchable mess.

Congrats to Coach Butler and the Panthers. The unwatchable mess was exactly what they were game planning for. Good on them for executing.

[boatcapt]

Advanced stats aside, this was not a good version of WLU. They started the year with some serious flaws and never really got better. Sure, we won a lot of regular season games but it always felt like we where barely doing enough to win and not much more. 3 point shooting, a calling card of typical WLU team, never really got on track and at numerous times was downright atrocious. Heading into the season there was a lot of hype about having seven .400 3-point shooters...also a lot of hype about having a plethora of bigs and how that was going to be a game changer. Neither materialized. What we doing ended up with was about two .400 3-point shooters and a plethora of bigs that did their best to play like 6 foot shooting guards.

Lots of work to do on this team before next season. There has been a push over the last 10 years to build .WLU based on athletes that can "do it all " While that has produced some good results, it has also resulted is some poor (by WLU standards) teams. We need to remember that no one forced WLU to change from the "gym rat/coaches son/3 point sniper/Charlie Hussle" type player I wasn't like we started losing with these type players. Perhaps we need a few more of those and fewer "athletes."

[Layton]

What in the world was that

[Scrub]

Lots of work to do on this team before next season. There has been a push over the last 10 years to build .WLU based on athletes that can "do it all " While that has produced some good results, it has also resulted is some poor (by WLU standards) teams. We need to remember that no one forced WLU to change from the "gym rat/coaches son/3 point sniper/Charlie Hussle" type player I wasn't like we started losing with these type players. Perhaps we need a few more of those and fewer "athletes."

I don't disagree that WLU has to get back to finding the under-recruited gym rat kids. Here's my take on why:

With so many branches of Crutch's coaching tree out there now, any big, long, athletic kid who wants to play Crutchball will have a lot of options for where to go to do so. And most of those options are more attractive than being perched on a hilltop in middle-of-nowhere WV. Ft. Lauderdale is destination #1. But you can go to Indy if you're a D1 body. You can go to Erie where there's actually a city and, you know, a gas station. You can even go down to Beaufort, SC if you want the warm weather but a small town.

When Crutch started this, he was the only one playing this way, so a kid who wanted to play this way chose WLU. That's how you end up with studs like Bonifant, Cedric Harris, Bryce Butler, etc. recruited to WLU. But does anyone really believe that the next kid with Bonifant's ability isn't going to be in Ft. Lauderdale, Indy, Erie, or elsewhere this time around?

When Crutch started this, he had to recruit the under-recruited gym rat kids just to get people willing to play. WLU might have to full-circle go back to that simply because the on-the-radar kids are heading to Ft. Lauderdale & Erie, so WLU has to get back to finding the under-the-radar kids (need more Dalton Bolon, Luke Dyer types again). Might be a full circle moment for the program because WLU once again faces a recruiting challenge (just of a different nature this time around).

[boatcapt]

I don't disagree that WLU has to get back to finding the under-recruited gym rat kids. Here's my take on why:

With so many branches of Crutch's coaching tree out there now, any big, long, athletic kid who wants to play Crutchball will have a lot of options for where to go to do so. And most of those options are more attractive than being perched on a hilltop in middle-of-nowhere WV. Ft. Lauderdale is destination #1. But you can go to Indy if you're a D1 body. You can go to Erie where there's actually a city and, you know, a gas station. You can even go down to Beaufort, SC if you want the warm weather but a small town.

When Crutch started this, he was the only one playing this way, so a kid who wanted to play this way chose WLU. That's how you end up with studs like Bonifant, Cedric Harris, Bryce Butler, etc. recruited to WLU. But does anyone really believe that the next kid with Bonifant's ability isn't going to be in Ft. Lauderdale, Indy, Erie, or elsewhere this time around?

When Crutch started this, he had to recruit the under-recruited gym rat kids just to get people willing to play. WLU might have to full-circle go back to that simply because the on-the-radar kids are heading to Ft. Lauderdale & Erie, so WLU has to get back to finding the under-the-radar kids (need more Dalton Bolon, Luke Dyer types again). Might be a full circle moment for the program because WLU once again faces a recruiting challenge (just of a different nature this time around).

It really depends on what the kid wants. Coming out of HS (many years ago), a place like South FL held no attraction for me. But every kid is different.

Not saying you can't have any "athletes," just that those characteristics should not be your sole focus when building the team. Give me a team equal parts gym rat/hate to lose/dive on the floor for everything guys, athletes that equally adept gliding down the lane as they are knocking down short jumpers, 3 point snipers and a couple of bigs that can sweep the boards inside/make the right outlet pass/and who is adept at getting put backs inside. And give me a solid assist first point guard that knows when to run and when not to run and gets us into the correct play at the correct time

WLU had two seniors on the roster this year but if recent history is a guide we'll lose 3 or 4 others. Given the shape of this team, I want to see at least 3 being the hate-to-lise/gym rat at least one spot-up 3 point shooter and a legit assist first point guard.

[Columbuseer]

I don't disagree that WLU has to get back to finding the under-recruited gym rat kids. Here's my take on why:

With so many branches of Crutch's coaching tree out there now, any big, long, athletic kid who wants to play Crutchball will have a lot of options for where to go to do so. And most of those options are more attractive than being perched on a hilltop in middle-of-nowhere WV. Ft. Lauderdale is destination #1. But you can go to Indy if you're a D1 body. You can go to Erie where there's actually a city and, you know, a gas station. You can even go down to Beaufort, SC if you want the warm weather but a small town.

When Crutch started this, he was the only one playing this way, so a kid who wanted to play this way chose WLU. That's how you end up with studs like Bonifant, Cedric Harris, Bryce Butler, etc. recruited to WLU. But does anyone really believe that the next kid with Bonifant's ability isn't going to be in Ft. Lauderdale, Indy, Erie, or elsewhere this time around?

When Crutch started this, he had to recruit the under-recruited gym rat kids just to get people willing to play. WLU might have to full-circle go back to that simply because the on-the-radar kids are heading to Ft. Lauderdale & Erie, so WLU has to get back to finding the under-the-radar kids (need more Dalton Bolon, Luke Dyer types again). Might be a full circle moment for the program because WLU once again faces a recruiting challenge (just of a different nature this time around).

Good points. I would respectivefully disagree about lack of gym rats. There are as many gym rats on this team as in past years. That is a big factor in wlu deciding who to offer. Casual players need not apply even if they are talented.

Another thing that has changed since Crutch left is N.I.L. it is in D2. Ever wonder why kayser changed his commitment from wl to nova se, even though he had visited both before committing to wlu?
if folks really want to overcome geographical disadvantages of wlu, better get the checkbook out for N.I.L.

I went to erie. I liked the game plan of vu. Slow the game down on offense and defense. Wlu was just a second early or late in flashing to the open area of the zone at the foul line. VU closed out and elevated like a d1 team when defending the three. Wlu will need to work on getting the three off faster- requires body and hand position in ready position and a perfect pass to waiting shooter.

wlu graduates one player. Future is bright. Like most setbacks, one often learns more than from successes. It was a good learning experience for the team.

[Columbuseer]

True Shooting %
I was curious about the true shooting % (which factors in FG, 3FG, and FT) and three-point % for WLU players this season.

In any process, there are two general types of variation - common cause and special cause.
- Common cause variation - this is variation that is inherent in any process and quite resistant to change unless one changes the process entirely.
- Special cause variation - these are areas that one can affect with process improvement or quality control measures.

Some examples sources of common cause variation in the basketball shooting process are:
- venue characteristics - lighting, shooting background, home vs away, crowd noise, etc.
- opponent defensive skill, height, quickness, etc.
- 2019 increase in the three-point line distance that has reduced 3 point %.

Some examples of potential special cause variation are:
- fatigue due to road trip, or during the game
- injury
- shooting mechanics
- shot selection
- Distance of opponent from the shooter when the ball is released.


Rather than look at season averages, it may be useful to explore variation from game to game, which keeps a few horrendous shooting nights from masking the view of individual shooting prowess. For example, if one player shoots 80% in game 1 and 40% in Game 2, the game to game average is 60%.

For each game, the sample includes all players that played at least 2 minutes and attempted at least 2 FGs in a game.
For this season, WLU had 8 players whose game-to-game true shooting percentage was over 59%. They had 12 players with 54.4% or greater true shooting percentage.
The D1 90th percentile is 58.9%.

Three-Point Shooting %
1.If one includes only games where a player shot > 40% 3-pt shooting % and attempted at least 2 3FGA per game, one finds that five players had 13 or more games (two had 15 games) where their game to game average was over 40%. Some were much higher!

2. If one looks at game-to-game averages where a player attempted at least two 3-pt FGA, regardless of 3FG%, WLU had 3 players who averaged over 41% 3FG and 8 players averaging over 35%.


The data seems to indicate that the issue is consistency, not inability to shoot the 3FG. This is confirmed by the relatively high standard deviation, which is also obvious to the fans who have seen hot and cold shooting games.

The open question is what areas of the process variation is controllable (special cause variation) and how much is inherent in the process (common cause variation)?

-

[boatcapt]

Some sage observations:

You can prove anything with statistics, except the truth - George Canning

There are three types of lies, lies, damn lies and statistics - Mark Twain

If the statistics don't support your argument, you are asking the question the wrong way. - CC Savage

The truth is inversely proportional to the number of statistics used to prove it. - Unknown

The first casualty of statistics is the truth. - Unknown

[Columbuseer]

Fyi


The phrase "lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a popular adage describing the persuasive power of statistics to mislead, often attributed to 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli
. Although popularized by Mark Twain, who credited Disraeli, the phrase has never been found in Disraeli’s works.
University of York +3
Key Aspects of the Quote:

• Attribution: While strongly associated with Benjamin Disraeli (Lord Beaconsfield), the earliest citations in the 1890s attribute it to others, including British statesman Arthur James Balfour or simply "some wit".
• Meaning: The phrase suggests a ranking of untruths, where statistics are considered the most deceptive form of falsehood, often used to obscure the truth.
• Origin: The earliest known printed version similar to this appeared in 1891, citing "three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics".
• Variations: Similar phrases have been used over time, such as "liars, damned liars, and expert witnesses".

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Fyi


The phrase "lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a popular adage describing the persuasive power of statistics to mislead, often attributed to 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli
. Although popularized by Mark Twain, who credited Disraeli, the phrase has never been found in Disraeli’s works.
University of York +3
Key Aspects of the Quote:

• Attribution: While strongly associated with Benjamin Disraeli (Lord Beaconsfield), the earliest citations in the 1890s attribute it to others, including British statesman Arthur James Balfour or simply "some wit".
• Meaning: The phrase suggests a ranking of untruths, where statistics are considered the most deceptive form of falsehood, often used to obscure the truth.
• Origin: The earliest known printed version similar to this appeared in 1891, citing "three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics".
• Variations: Similar phrases have been used over time, such as "liars, damned liars, and expert witnesses".

But can Mark Twain shoot the trey?

[boatcapt]

But can Mark Twain shoot the trey?

Hahah...I'm sure there is an advanced stats that says he can!!! He's only 5'9", 145 lbs but in The System, size doesn't matter. I hear he has a High Basketball IQ, can Make His Own Shot and is Very Athletic.

I'm a little more interested in his partner Jim Watson from St Petersburg Missouri. Probably too thin to start next season but he is tall and we'll benefit from a season in the weigh room. He plays outside which is exactly what we want from a big. Has a great Euro Step and although he didn't shoot much in highschool, the 10 second video I saw proved he has a quick release with great ball rotation. He should easily eclipse .450 from 3. He also showed a tremendous motor in that clip.

[Scrub]

Hahah...I'm sure there is an advanced stats that says he can!!! He's only 5'9", 145 lbs but in The System, size doesn't matter. I hear he has a High Basketball IQ, can Make His Own Shot and is Very Athletic.

I'm a little more interested in his partner Jim Watson from St Petersburg Missouri. Probably too thin to start next season but he is tall and we'll benefit from a season in the weigh room. He plays outside which is exactly what we want from a big. Has a great Euro Step and although he didn't shoot much in highschool, the 10 second video I saw proved he has a quick release with great ball rotation. He should easily eclipse .450 from 3. He also showed a tremendous motor in that clip.

Jim's probably a bit raw. It's really hard to get up 100 shots a day when you spend all your time on a raft.