Men's Atlantic Regional

[Scrub]

I'm only expecting to be there for the Friday night. I don't think WSSU or VSU gets past the first round. VSU definitely has a better shot than WSSU of moving on.

But be where? VSU & WSSU play at different venues. I assume you'll be heading to the Hilltop for the VSU game, but this is one of those moments when it stinks to have a split regional. I'm sure you'd like to see your conference mates WSSU play as well, but they'll be a couple hours away.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

My sarcasm apparently didn't translate well.



I disagree in turn. ESU was ranked behind VSU pretty much only because of head-to-head. With that tiebreaker, they get the 7 seed. It's that simple.

Classic example of what I call The Boat Theory. Traditionally strong programs like ESU and VSU agreeing to play each other early in the season comes with huge risk. Had ESU played a cream-puff instead ... are they headed to Indiana this weekend? Maybe.

You'll read every single November on here ... people saying November games are 'early' and 'they don't mean anything'. LOL. The freak they don't. November almost always comes back to haunt a couple teams in March. If you're projecting an upcoming bubble type team ... load up on the cream-puffs.

Run Boat's numbers. A 'win' over a jabroni is always better in the metrics than a loss to a good team. West Liberty went up to Daemen this year and lost. Very tough and risky road trip. Did that road trip cost WL the regional? Hard to say ... but it took a little heat off IUP.

If you schedule a big non-conference game ... you best win it.

[boatcapt]

If ESU had beaten VSU way early on in the season, I have no doubts we'd be in. But that's just the way it goes.

As I've said many times before, at it's core, Massey is a betting tool that tries to identify who will win in upcoming games. A byproduct of this is a ranking of the teams that are the strongest (best) in the nation and by extention, each Region. The reason ESU for example is "ranked" in the Top 8 of the Massey Atlantic rankings is that based on a body of equally applied criteria, driven by only data derived from this season, they were more likely to win a game against ANY team ranked below them.

I think Massey is a much better tool for selecting the Top 8 in any region than the collection of criteria applied and massaged by the NCAA selection committee. IMHO, any time you have a committee that has the ability to step in and massage the selections, you have a system that is bias.

[boatcapt]

Classic example of what I call The Boat Theory. Traditionally strong programs like ESU and VSU agreeing to play each other early in the season comes with huge risk. Had ESU played a cream-puff instead ... are they headed to Indiana this weekend? Maybe.

You'll read every single November on here ... people saying November games are 'early' and 'they don't mean anything'. LOL. The freak they don't. November almost always comes back to haunt a couple teams in March. If you're projecting an upcoming bubble type team ... load up on the cream-puffs.

Run Boat's numbers. A 'win' over a jabroni is always better in the metrics than a loss to a good team. West Liberty went up to Daemen this year and lost. Very tough and risky road trip. Did that road trip cost WL the regional? Hard to say ... but it took a little heat off IUP.

If you schedule a big non-conference game ... you best win it.

Boat Theory of Scheduling Rules:

1. A win ALWAYS beats a "good loss."
2. Always schedule teams you believe you have a +50% chance of beating.
3. Schedule any tough teams at home.
4. Never schedule a tough game early in the season...If you feel you must schedule a tough team, Christmas break or early January is the best time.
5. Schedule OOC games against poor teams at their house...This maximizes PI points.
6. Ideally schedule your OOC slate to have a slightly above .500 antisipated record.

Boat's Observation: If you are in a good conference you can depend on conference games to boost PI so you don't need to "schedule hard" OOC...If you are in a bad conference, you need to "make up" for conference deficiencies by scheduling harder OOC.

I don't think WLU's loss to Daemen hurt them from a playoff selection stand point this year, but in years past (or in the future), it could. Not only can it remove WLU from competing for the #1 seed, it can ALSO cause an arguably "lower" team with the same W/L to move ahead of them. Big risk for not much reward.

[krober34]

Here's what Massey's computer is spitting out on the men's side:

Predictions

IUP 74
Winston-Salem 60

IUP 90% probability of winning


Shippensburg 79
Fairmont State 73

Shippensburg 71% probability of winning


West Liberty 95
Virginia State 83

West Liberty 86% probability of winning


Charleston 65
Mercyhurst 63

Charleston 54% probability of winning

Wow, he has us losing by 14. SMH

[GoVSUTrojans]

But be where? VSU & WSSU play at different venues. I assume you'll be heading to the Hilltop for the VSU game, but this is one of those moments when it stinks to have a split regional. I'm sure you'd like to see your conference mates WSSU play as well, but they'll be a couple hours away.

Yes. I'm driving between 6.5 and 8 hours to West Liberty, WV.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Yes. I'm driving between 6.5 and 8 hours to West Liberty, WV.

Get to the game early. WL has a nice venue but it isn't huge. On these types of games the seating fills up really quickly.

The last time IUP played there in the Regional Final ... I remember being in my seat more than an hour before tip-off.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Wow, he has us losing by 14. SMH

It's not a 'he' .. rather just a computer prediction based upon several metrics.

I also thought it was high. In fact, it's probably double what I'd be comfortable betting as a point spread.

[Scrub]

Get to the game early. WL has a nice venue but it isn't huge. On these types of games the seating fills up really quickly.

The last time IUP played there in the Regional Final ... I remember being in my seat more than an hour before tip-off.

Was that the year they botched the ticket distribution and sold more than they could hold? If so, I was part of the SRO mob that was hanging out (about several rows of people deep) just inside the tunnel leading to the home locker room. Tough way to take in a game. But, man, did I have a good look at the Scooter Renkin shot that rimmed off. He took the shot from just a few feet away from where I was standing.

But the good news for GoVSU is that WLU has--since that debacle--figured out the ticket distribution situation. I believe that they no longer sell more than will fit (and I'm sure the Fire Marshall had a word with them about that as well).

[boatcapt]

It's not a 'he' .. rather just a computer prediction based upon several metrics.

I also thought it was high. In fact, it's probably double what I'd be comfortable betting as a point spread.

Massey has WLU by 12 over Va State as well. 60-74 is one of those scores that just feels larger than it is.

Massey is what it is. If their logorythim built up over the course of the year says a particular number, that is what they post regardless of what people may feel is appropriate.

I would say that the point spread is based on teams performance in the regular season. Just my casual observation, teams play a little more conservatively in the playoffs and therefore, scores tend to go down.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Was that the year they botched the ticket distribution and sold more than they could hold? If so, I was part of the SRO mob that was hanging out (about several rows of people deep) just inside the tunnel leading to the home locker room. Tough way to take in a game. But, man, did I have a good look at the Scooter Renkin shot that rimmed off. He took the shot from just a few feet away from where I was standing.

But the good news for GoVSU is that WLU has--since that debacle--figured out the ticket distribution situation. I believe that they no longer sell more than will fit (and I'm sure the Fire Marshall had a word with them about that as well).

It was more recent. It was the 2014-15 Regional. That's when Brandon Norfleet hit the trey to win it. Hard to beleive we haven't played since.

[GoVSUTrojans]

Get to the game early. WL has a nice venue but it isn't huge. On these types of games the seating fills up really quickly.

The last time IUP played there in the Regional Final ... I remember being in my seat more than an hour before tip-off.

I hope I am able to get two tickets when I get there Friday. You are making me nervous.

[IUPalum]

We better hope they allow fans at this point.

[IUP24]

We better hope they allow fans at this point.

Just announced: No fans at winter championship sporting events.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Just announced: No fans at winter championship sporting events.

The NCAA announcement didn't address D2 ... but specifically said D1.