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  • #31
    Just saw this online. Several D2 schools listed, some D1 too. Oddly enough no Wheeling but they may already be rated Negative.

    https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/...mpact-11469520

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    • #32
      Originally posted by Fightingscot82 View Post
      Just saw this online. Several D2 schools listed, some D1 too. Oddly enough no Wheeling but they may already be rated Negative.

      https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/...mpact-11469520
      Wow. A sobering list. It's long been understood that the number of the colleges that opened doors or expanded operations during the glow of the GI Bill boom was unsustainable. Higher ed folks seem to understand that the market is too glutted, and there was a belief, I think, that many of the less stable institutions would eventually die slow deaths as the market corrected and constricted. But I'm not sure anyone imagined that a single global event would speed the demise of a number of floundering institutions. What a wild turn of events this has been.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Scrub View Post

        Wow. A sobering list. It's long been understood that the number of the colleges that opened doors or expanded operations during the glow of the GI Bill boom was unsustainable. Higher ed folks seem to understand that the market is too glutted, and there was a belief, I think, that many of the less stable institutions would eventually die slow deaths as the market corrected and constricted. But I'm not sure anyone imagined that a single global event would speed the demise of a number of floundering institutions. What a wild turn of events this has been.
        The only real bubble was unregulated for-profit online universities. Once they started to be regulated on the same principles of traditional universities they all began to fold or be revealed as predatory.

        Too many traditional schools thought they could build to sustain their enrollment after the 2010 demographic peak. The only ones who did are the public flagships and brand names. Now there is a long sharp decline in 15-17 year olds, adults out of work are less willing to borrow the money for a new degree, and the construction debt is still payable for 20 more years.

        If you're middle of the pack you better be sweating.

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        • #34
          Bonds and bond ratings are complicated. The more I think I know about them, the more I realize that I don't know about them. But IMHO:

          This article represents changes in the bond rating of the noted schools. Effectively there are three ratings for each bond rating, positive, stable and negative. Other rating services use various terms to relay the same sentaments. Many services use buy, hold and sell to convey the same information. From SR1/Atlantic:

          Mercyhurst downgraded from Stable to Negative, bond rating BB
          IUP downgraded from Stable to Negative, bond rating A-
          UNCP downgraded from Stable to Negative, bond rating A-

          For bond ratings, the S&P scale goes AAA, AA+, AA, AA-, A, A-, BBB+, BBB, BBB-, BB+, BB, BB-...down to D.

          What these changes reflect is this services recommendation for clients to purchase, hold or sell bonds from these institutions at that particular level. SOOOO...in short, this service is recommending that persons holding or considering the purchase of Mercyhurst bonds at the BB level sell them. It CAN (stress CAN) indicate potential down grade (or upgrade) of the base bond rating.
          Last edited by boatcapt; 05-02-2020, 09:16 PM.

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          • #35
            Originally posted by Fightingscot82 View Post

            The only real bubble was unregulated for-profit online universities. Once they started to be regulated on the same principles of traditional universities they all began to fold or be revealed as predatory.

            Too many traditional schools thought they could build to sustain their enrollment after the 2010 demographic peak. The only ones who did are the public flagships and brand names. Now there is a long sharp decline in 15-17 year olds, adults out of work are less willing to borrow the money for a new degree, and the construction debt is still payable for 20 more years.

            If you're middle of the pack you better be sweating.
            Wouldn't say those are the only schools to sustain or increase from 2010 but there are certainly a LOT more public (and private) schools that built infrastructure/facilities thinking they would maintain or increase their 2010 enrollment and did not...as the Indiana Jones quote goes...They chose...poorly.

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            • #36
              Worth noting amid all the Covid driven school going out of business speculation, everyones wipping boy Wheeling U just announced the hiring of a new Wrestling coach to restart the program that was shuttered for one year and a new Swimming HC to resusitate a program that was idled three years ago.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by boatcapt View Post
                Worth noting amid all the Covid driven school going out of business speculation, everyones wipping boy Wheeling U just announced the hiring of a new Wrestling coach to restart the program that was shuttered for one year and a new Swimming HC to resusitate a program that was idled three years ago.
                Interesting. Maybe a twist on the Urbana strategy that worked for awhile. At first glance seems to be less capital intensive provided u have access to a pool.
                I nean how much do Speedo swimsuits cost? If u schedule schools near the Ohio River u could swim there for away meets.

                The wrestling team can pick up hulk hogan and Andre the Giant training videos at good Will.

                just kidding...

                At least they are trying something to boost enrollment. But on the surface it seems like one of those long, desperation heaves toward the end zone at the end of a game... the term escapes me.

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by Columbuseer View Post

                  Interesting. Maybe a twist on the Urbana strategy that worked for awhile. At first glance seems to be less capital intensive provided u have access to a pool.
                  I nean how much do Speedo swimsuits cost? If u schedule schools near the Ohio River u could swim there for away meets.

                  The wrestling team can pick up hulk hogan and Andre the Giant training videos at good Will.

                  just kidding...

                  At least they are trying something to boost enrollment. But on the surface it seems like one of those long, desperation heaves toward the end zone at the end of a game... the term escapes me.
                  I disagree with your characterization of adding athletic programs is desperate heave. There are schools that have used this as a highly successful tool that does increase enrollment. I would say it is no more desperate than a school adding AC to its dorms or bringing chain resturants to campus to attempt to wow additional student to campus. Difference between the starting athletics and adding "shinny objects" is you can more accurately track the attendance boost from added athletic teams and you can't really do that with campus "niceties." You can also cut athletics pretty quickly if they are not getting the projected enrollment increase. Put AC in the dorm or do many other capital improvements and the school is stuck with the construction cost and the maintenance cost weather it produces an enrollment increase or not.

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                  • #39
                    Some good points.
                    too much enrollment ground to make up for athletics to suffice.
                    i think there is a practical limit to how many folks you can attract with athletics. Maybe a max of 25 in basketball? But only 14 can be on bench. It can provide some help but imho is not a panacea if your enrollment is less than critical mass of say 1200 ( might be more just a guess).
                    Urbana was down to 400 students with many being athletes.
                    Another problem on the horizon besides impact of pandemic.
                    :
                    The portion of tuition going to support athletics is significant and resistance is rising. Many young people care more about video games and have 0 interest in sports.
                    when over $1000 a year is going to big time athletics they are not happy with paying it.

                    So that can work against schools in the future as online universities gain credibility/
                    Day of reckoning is coming. Enrollment down nationwide.

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Columbuseer View Post
                      Some good points.
                      too much enrollment ground to make up for athletics to suffice.
                      i think there is a practical limit to how many folks you can attract with athletics. Maybe a max of 25 in basketball? But only 14 can be on bench. It can provide some help but imho is not a panacea if your enrollment is less than critical mass of say 1200 ( might be more just a guess).
                      Urbana was down to 400 students with many being athletes.
                      Another problem on the horizon besides impact of pandemic.
                      :
                      The portion of tuition going to support athletics is significant and resistance is rising. Many young people care more about video games and have 0 interest in sports.
                      when over $1000 a year is going to big time athletics they are not happy with paying it.

                      So that can work against schools in the future as online universities gain credibility/
                      Day of reckoning is coming. Enrollment down nationwide.
                      Junior High and High School athletic participation may be at all-time lows.

                      It used to be 'cool' to be an athlete. This weirdo generation could care less.

                      WV and PA ... the problem is just supply and demand. Way too many similar schools. The populations are reeling. Way more supply than demand.

                      Florida and California - massive, growing states, have a combined two D2 football teams. PA and WV - both largely dying - have about 25.

                      When you look around SR1 in football or the Atlantic in basketball ... there's probably 6-7 schools that won't exist in 5 years.

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                      • #41

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                        • #42

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                          • #43
                            The football program operating loss is only based on football revenue and expenses. It doesn't consider tuition and fee revenue from players and punishes those who distribute football gameday revenue to other sports. The D3 model (and for the most part private schools beyond the Power Five) considers net tuition & fee revenue. This becomes a "net positive" for nearly every school but the reporting formula doesn't consider this.

                            Every school has a different financial model because most have unique costs. Some schools can rely on part-time freelance faculty to keep costs down but rural schools typically don't have that luxury. Private schools don't have the bureaucratic red tape of state schools and the rules for state schools vary from state to state.

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                            • #44
                              Florida and California - massive, growing states, have a combined two D2 football teams. PA and WV - both largely dying - have about 25.

                              Yes but they have 68 jcc schools having FB.

                              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tball_programs
                              Last edited by Sec10-A-14; 05-13-2020, 12:46 PM. Reason: additional infoi

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Sec10-A-14 View Post
                                Florida and California - massive, growing states, have a combined two D2 football teams. PA and WV - both largely dying - have about 25.

                                Yes but they have 68 jcc schools having FB.

                                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tball_programs
                                Florida is one of the fastest growing states in the US based on one year growth (18-19) and growth since 2010. California however is middle of the pack ranking as number 21 and 24 among the 50 states.

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