Performance Indicators 2020-21

[boatcapt]

I'd love to know the real answer. I'm even somewhat close to the program ... but, not close enough for that info.

When you have a legit Top 5 team ... baffling.

BTW, I don't ever recall you and I arguing ... lol. It's been awhile, though.

I wouldn't call anything here arguing...more a strong disagreement!

Yep...Baffling is certainly a word that can be used! Clearly it was something that could have been done even for a good team. Perfect example is Mercyhurst. Top tier team that also runs a D that is different than anything other teams will see in a given year so hypothetically, they had two strikes against them, but they have made it work. Clearly IUP could have gone down this same road and their addition would have made it that much easier to schedule. But for some reason, IUP said - "Yea, we'll pass on playing basketball this year even though we have a top 5 team and would be among a number of favorites to win the National Championship."

We'll probably never know the real reason, but it certainly is a head scracher.

[schnautza]

I couldn't shake off the feeling it was a mistake to remove Lincoln from the list, seeing how it affected Salem so much and I'd prefer the data set to remain true. I added Lincoln back to the list with an ** to indicate that their season is over. Ironically, it puts them at the top of the Atlantic region.

PI Rank	Regional Rank	Team	Region	Conference	Record	Win%	P.I.	O.W%	O.O.W%
6		Lincoln (Pa.)**	Atlantic	CIAA	3-0	100.00%	16.33	57.14%	42.62%
11		Hillsdale	Atlantic	GMAC	13-1	92.86%	16.07	50.32%	51.86%
18		Mercyhurst	Atlantic	PSAC	5-0	100.00%	15.60	55.56%	47.58%
20		Charleston	Atlantic	MEC	8-2	80.00%	15.10	48.10%	50.84%
26		Glenville State	Atlantic	MEC	7-2	77.78%	14.78	47.95%	50.91%
30		West Liberty	Atlantic	MEC	7-3	70.00%	14.60	55.56%	50.07%
35		Fairmont State	Atlantic	MEC	6-2	75.00%	14.25	49.23%	51.28%
39		Findlay	Atlantic	GMAC	12-3	80.00%	14.00	47.27%	52.38%
39		Gannon	Atlantic	PSAC	4-0	100.00%	14.00	100.00%	50.00%
49		West Virginia State	Atlantic	MEC	6-3	66.67%	13.78	47.95%	51.13%
50		Walsh	Atlantic	GMAC	7-3	70.00%	13.70	52.14%	53.02%
51		Kentucky Wesleyan	Atlantic	GMAC	8-4	66.67%	13.67	56.06%	51.14%
72		Alderson Broaddus	Atlantic	MEC	5-5	50.00%	12.60	54.43%	50.41%
78		Malone	Atlantic	GMAC	7-5	58.33%	12.42	48.46%	52.45%
81		Salem	Atlantic	IND	1-2	33.33%	12.33	41.67%	47.37%
96		Cedarville	Atlantic	GMAC	7-5	58.33%	11.67	38.64%	51.43%
107		Bluefield State	Atlantic	IND	2-4	33.33%	11.33	43.24%	53.31%
114		Concord	Atlantic	MEC	4-5	44.44%	11.22	48.65%	51.05%
116		Notre Dame (Ohio)	Atlantic	MEC	4-5	44.44%	11.11	47.22%	50.31%
151		Tiffin	Atlantic	GMAC	5-9	35.71%	10.21	49.34%	49.61%
154		Frostburg State	Atlantic	MEC	3-6	33.33%	10.11	49.33%	50.82%
159		Wheeling	Atlantic	MEC	2-5	28.57%	9.86	47.37%	50.59%
161		Clarion	Atlantic	PSAC	1-3	25.00%	9.75	52.63%	46.39%
165		Davis & Elkins	Atlantic	MEC	2-6	25.00%	9.63	54.84%	48.24%
169		Trevecca Nazarene	Atlantic	GMAC	3-12	20.00%	9.47	58.02%	49.52%
178		Ohio Dominican	Atlantic	GMAC	3-8	27.27%	9.09	46.22%	49.86%
179		Ohio Valley	Atlantic	GMAC	3-9	25.00%	9.08	53.38%	49.01%
192		Lake Erie	Atlantic	GMAC	1-10	9.09%	8.18	57.36%	48.47%
205		West Virginia Wesleyan	Atlantic	MEC	0-10	0.00%	6.70	52.50%	49.73%

[boatcapt]

That's the problem basing a "ranking" on one criteria category. That is particularly magnified this year were teams are all over the map on the number of games they are playing!

[schnautza]

That's the problem basing a "ranking" on one criteria category. That is particularly magnified this year were teams are all over the map on the number of games they are playing!

I'm not sure what you are implying, the criteria in this "ranking" contains multiple factors.
1. Win or loss
2. Home/Road/Neutral
3. Strength of opponent (0-25-50-75% brackets)

And it's a continually self-adjusting metric based on how your past opponents' seasons are progressing. And, generally speaking, by the end of a normal season, it's very good because everybody's played a complete schedule. This season is a little weird because many teams have struggled to get games in, and small data sets are easily skewed. I've been pretty up front about that.

Notice I've never made the claim that it's a definitive ranking, it's only one of many criteria used by the NCAA. However, I have made the claim that, historically speaking, the end of season performance indicators have been as close as any other computer metric to predicting the field of 8 teams. I didn't invent the system. I just track it to report it to you. Take it or leave it.

[Sec10-A-14]

As I said before, nobody on here knows why they elected not to play (after voting to play). I think it was a terrible decision. Joe and the AD both have their email and numbers on the website if it's bothering everybody so much. Give them a call and ask. See if they'll give you an answer rather than all this babbling.

It has come out, however, Gannon declined to play IUP this year. That, of course, is rumor, as neither side is ever going to say it on the record.

If its rumor why mention it? Like I heard IUP begged Gannon not to play bec it would be an embarrassing loss for IUP and IUP is afraid its reputation as a crybaby would suffer even more. We know that's not true.
Sorry, Gimme a break. Make an accusation, then back it up with fact

[IUPbigINDIANS]

I wouldn't call anything here arguing...more a strong disagreement!

Yep...Baffling is certainly a word that can be used! Clearly it was something that could have been done even for a good team. Perfect example is Mercyhurst. Top tier team that also runs a D that is different than anything other teams will see in a given year so hypothetically, they had two strikes against them, but they have made it work. Clearly IUP could have gone down this same road and their addition would have made it that much easier to schedule. But for some reason, IUP said - "Yea, we'll pass on playing basketball this year even though we have a top 5 team and would be among a number of favorites to win the National Championship."

We'll probably never know the real reason, but it certainly is a head scracher.

Obviously of the PA state schools there are only posters on here from IUP and FS82 from Edinboro but it's more than just IUP. I was shocked they almost all voted no (Clarion and IUP were the only yes votes of the PASSHE members). We knew early on West Chester had pulled out. Philly was just a hot mess with Covid. Schools like Shippensburg, Cal, Kutztown, SRU ... I was shocked they all voted 'no'. I don't know how seriously the privates who declined (UPJ and Seton Hill) were to considering playing. It was just mind-blowing they couldn't get 6 out of 18 to play.

I'm not overly confident they will even play football in the Fall unless the testing restrictions are relaxed some. Testing a whole program (players, coaches, staff, etc.) three times a week for D2 football just doesn't make financial sense. That's like 100-some tests three times a week.

[schnautza]

Did you not look at Mercyhurst's schedule... they have 14 games scheduled.

They've got 14 in total, but two already played aren't D2. They'll end with 12 if they don't have any cancellations.
D'Youville is a new D2 team, so JDon may be overlooking them.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

They've got 14 in total, but two already played aren't D2. They'll end with 12 if they don't have any cancellations.
D'Youville is a new D2 team, so JDon may be overlooking them.

I'd guess if it gets dicey with cancellations, etc., they could play Gannon a couple extra times. They are in the same city. Or, play Clarion a couple more times (although that won't help their S.O.S. or other matrix categories). I think D'Youville just moved up recently. I didn't see any limit on the independents for how many times they could play the same team.

I haven't heard of many Covid issues among the teams that are playing in the Atlantic. Here and there, as expected, but nothing dramatic. I think Fairmont State had to reschedule a couple games as did a few others.

[boatcapt]

I'm not sure what you are implying, the criteria in this "ranking" contains multiple factors.
1. Win or loss
2. Home/Road/Neutral
3. Strength of opponent (0-25-50-75% brackets)

And it's a continually self-adjusting metric based on how your past opponents' seasons are progressing. And, generally speaking, by the end of a normal season, it's very good because everybody's played a complete schedule. This season is a little weird because many teams have struggled to get games in, and small data sets are easily skewed. I've been pretty up front about that.

Notice I've never made the claim that it's a definitive ranking, it's only one of many criteria used by the NCAA. However, I have made the claim that, historically speaking, the end of season performance indicators have been as close as any other computer metric to predicting the field of 8 teams. I didn't invent the system. I just track it to report it to you. Take it or leave it.

What I mean is PI is one of the selection criteria. I'm pretty sure all the criteria are "self-adjusting." It would be an interesting to compare the PI accuracy for predicting the field of 8 to something as simple as W/L % (also one of the criteria). Also worth noting, automatic qualls upset the PI and W/L "rankings."

[IUPalum]

If its rumor why mention it? Like I heard IUP begged Gannon not to play bec it would be an embarrassing loss for IUP and IUP is afraid its reputation as a crybaby would suffer even more. We know that's not true.
Sorry, Gimme a break. Make an accusation, then back it up with fact

It's no rumor! It's a fact Jack! Gannon outright said they wouldn't play IUP in a home and home this year! Your AD ought to be ashamed of herself!!! I'll leave it at that!

[boatcapt]

It's no rumor! It's a fact Jack! Gannon outright said they wouldn't play IUP in a home and home this year! Your AD ought to be ashamed of herself!!! I'll leave it at that!

Sooo...you admit that IUP begged Gannon not to play because IUP loosing to Gannon would be embarrassing???

Well...If you admit that IUP was afraid to play Gannon, guess it must be true!!!

[IUPalum]

Sooo...you admit that IUP begged Gannon not to play because IUP loosing to Gannon would be embarrassing???

Well...If you admit that IUP was afraid to play Gannon, guess it must be true!!!

[Sec10-A-14]

Gimme a break... You can't recognize a joke
GU just went 5-0. What's IUP's record?

I see you want to have sHlitz singing contest. Sorry I don't lower myself to your level

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Sooo...you admit that IUP begged Gannon not to play because IUP loosing to Gannon would be embarrassing???

Well...If you admit that IUP was afraid to play Gannon, guess it must be true!!!

Lol. That was a rivalry for a bit. It really faded out the past 6-7 years. I think IUP has won 11 of the past 12 in the series.

The program would call Mercyhurst its rival. The fans largely would all say SRU (although the past 30 years is so lopsided I have no idea why).

The upcoming GU vs Mercy series will be entertaining. The NCAA isn't taking two independents - the independents will have played less games, weaker competition and no conference tournament. If Mercyhurst is (likely) 12-0 or 14-0, they'll probably be a lock to make it as an independent.

The strength of schedule factor will be interesting. Mercyhurst had two blowouts wins over Ferris State (7-7), a sweep of a decent (but currently winless at just 0-2) American International and a win over Ashland. But, they have a (winless) D'youville series upcoming along with an awful (winless) Kentucky State. They'll have two wins over one-win Clarion. Those are 6 games against three SOS anchors. If they sweep Gannon that will give their SOS a boost.

Gannon has to be thinking sweep in the Mercyhurst series to get a bid. They are 5-0 right now but their SOS is currently really poor. Daemen is 2-4, Kentucky State is winless and Clarion has just one win. They also have D'Youville upcoming - another anchor.

In this year's Atlantic it looks like the GMAC has three locks. The MEC has four locks. That leaves one spot open.

Of course the wildcard would be a .500 Concord (or somebody else) winning the MEC or GMAC tournament and getting the automatic bid. That could be devastating to an independent team as the conference teams in the mix will have better SOS, more quality wins, more games played, etc.

I really think even one loss could knock out an independent. The resumes just won't be there in comparison.

[Chuck Norris]

I wouldn't call anything here arguing...more a strong disagreement!

Yep...Baffling is certainly a word that can be used! Clearly it was something that could have been done even for a good team. Perfect example is Mercyhurst. Top tier team that also runs a D that is different than anything other teams will see in a given year so hypothetically, they had two strikes against them, but they have made it work. Clearly IUP could have gone down this same road and their addition would have made it that much easier to schedule. But for some reason, IUP said - "Yea, we'll pass on playing basketball this year even though we have a top 5 team and would be among a number of favorites to win the National Championship."

We'll probably never know the real reason, but it certainly is a head scracher.