Atlantic Regional projections

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Lot of key games remain, but the path is getting a little clearer. Historically, (7) losses or less is safe. From (8) losses and up, it's a crapshoot.

The PSAC is going to continue to beat each other up. The Top 4 in the MEC have some remaining head-to-heads. The CIAA, as always, is very hard to predict -- and, famous for an out-of-nowhere team winning the automatic bid. While it can happen in any league, it's much more rare, historically, in the MEC and PSAC.

The (MEN'S) contenders from each conference (with 6 losses as the current cut-off):


MEC

West Liberty	19-2
Fairmont State	16-3
Charleston	14-4
West Virginia State	15-5

PSAC

IUP	17-2
Shippensburg	14-5
UPJ	15-4
California	14-4
Mercyhurst	17-4
Millersville	16-4
East Stroudsburg	11-6
Slippery Rock	10-6
Gannon	9-6

CIAA

Lincoln	14-6
Virginia Union	14-6
Livingstone	9-4
Fayetteville State	13-6
Winston-Salem State	12-5

[CALUPA69]

Lot of key games remain, but the path is getting a little clearer. Historically, (7) losses or less is safe. From (8) losses and up, it's a crapshoot.

The PSAC is going to continue to beat each other up. The Top 4 in the MEC have some remaining head-to-heads. The CIAA, as always, is very hard to predict -- and, famous for an out-of-nowhere team winning the automatic bid. While it can happen in any league, it's much more rare, historically, in the MEC and PSAC.

The (MEN'S) contenders from each conference (with 6 losses as the current cut-off):


MEC

West Liberty	19-2
Fairmont State	16-3
Charleston	14-4
West Virginia State	15-5

PSAC

IUP	17-2
Shippensburg	14-5
UPJ	15-4
California	14-4
Mercyhurst	17-4
Millersville	16-4
East Stroudsburg	11-6
Slippery Rock	10-6
Gannon	9-6

CIAA

Lincoln	14-6
Virginia Union	14-6
Livingstone	9-4
Fayetteville State	13-6
Winston-Salem State	12-5

At least it appears that if that upset happens in the CIAA, the automatic bid will likely be the only one they'll get. My wild guess is 4 PSAC, 3 MEC and 1 CIAA. Time will tell.

[Ship69]

The PSAC will be pounding on each other. I might end up wishing that Ship had back one or two of those losses they had when Biss was out. Only IUP really looks absolutely safe unless they hit a protracted slump, which seems unlikely.

[Scrub]

A poster with the moniker Inkblot has been tweeting out weekly charts with the Performance Indicator numbers. As we know, the PI is a historically good indicator of the top 8. Here's where Inkblot's PI numbers stand right now for the Atlantic (as of this morning's post):

1. IUP
2. West Liberty
3. Fairmont
4. Cal
5. Mercyhurst
6. UPJ
7. WV State
8. Millersville
9. Ship
10. VUU

And we know that one CIAA team will get in the top-8 automatically, so technically, that means 'Ville is out as of now. Ship is a surprise that low. But it's not a terrible indicator overall.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

A poster with the moniker Inkblot has been tweeting out weekly charts with the Performance Indicator numbers. As we know, the PI is a historically good indicator of the top 8. Here's where Inkblot's PI numbers stand right now for the Atlantic (as of this morning's post):

1. IUP
2. West Liberty
3. Fairmont
4. Cal
5. Mercyhurst
6. UPJ
7. WV State
8. Millersville
9. Ship
10. VUU

And we know that one CIAA team will get in the top-8 automatically, so technically, that means 'Ville is out as of now. Ship is a surprise that low. But it's not a terrible indicator overall.

Ship has the two 'bad losses' to sub .500 Kutztown and Virginia State. Those must be taking a toll on the metrics.

[Ship69]

A poster with the moniker Inkblot has been tweeting out weekly charts with the Performance Indicator numbers. As we know, the PI is a historically good indicator of the top 8. Here's where Inkblot's PI numbers stand right now for the Atlantic (as of this morning's post):

1. IUP
2. West Liberty
3. Fairmont
4. Cal
5. Mercyhurst
6. UPJ
7. WV State
8. Millersville
9. Ship
10. VUU

And we know that one CIAA team will get in the top-8 automatically, so technically, that means 'Ville is out as of now. Ship is a surprise that low. But it's not a terrible indicator overall.

Interesting that Ship is 4-2 against teams on that list, with both losses coming when they were without the services of a key player, Jake Biss (in fairness they probably would have lost the Mercyhurst game anyway). What has hurt them are losses to a so-so Virginia State team (also sans Biss) and Kutztown.

[Scrub]

Interesting that Ship is 4-2 against teams on that list, with both losses coming when they were without the services of a key player, Jake Biss (in fairness they probably would have lost the Mercyhurst game anyway). What has hurt them are losses to a so-so Virginia State team (also sans Biss) and Kutztown.

What you're pointing out, Ship69, is exactly why a human commttee makes the call and not just the computers. The computers are pretty good at getting it close, but the kind of consideration you're mentioning (losses coming while Biss was shelved) is well within the purview of the committee of humans to consider. I wouldn't be surprised if they weigh that factor in the end.

But a lot of this can change between now and March. Lots of meaningful basketball yet to be played.

[Scrub]

Ship has the two 'bad losses' to sub .500 Kutztown and Virginia State. Those must be taking a toll on the metrics.

In the case of WVSU, they must be allowing good wins (such as a W vs. Fairmont) to outweigh bad losses (such as an L to Concord). WVSU's losses to 'Ville & VUU don't look as bad right now as they did a month ago (with both of those clubs seeming to have righted the ship). Like WVSU, Ship, too, has a marquee win or two to go with a few tough losses. I admit I don't know much about the formula (which is why I defer to the more statistically minded posters like Inkblot on this stuff).

[CALUPA69]

It's impressive and pleasing to see CAL back in the serious post season talk. However, with 10 games on the schedule they must win ALL the likely ones (@SHEP, BORO, @SHU, CLAR, SRU, @GU) and no less than 2 of 50/50 games (UPJ, @IUP, @UPJ, HURST) in order to lock up their spot. I think this team has it in them, they only have to play to their ability.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

What you're pointing out, Ship69, is exactly why a human commttee makes the call and not just the computers. The computers are pretty good at getting it close, but the kind of consideration you're mentioning (losses coming while Biss was shelved) is well within the purview of the committee of humans to consider. I wouldn't be surprised if they weigh that factor in the end.

But a lot of this can change between now and March. Lots of meaningful basketball yet to be played.

At the same time, though, when does that argument stop? If it applies to Ship, then it applies to IUP and West Liberty. IUP is also 4-2 against that list -- with both losses coming without Shawndale Jones. In fact, the (4) wins came without him. But, they shouldn't get any extra credit for that. WL has played the whole year without its star. California has been without one of its stars all year, too.

While it sucks for those involved, I don't think they can use the asterisk system. It has to be (or, should be) cut and dry.

[Scrub]

At the same time, though, when does that argument stop? If it applies to Ship, then it applies to IUP and West Liberty. IUP is also 4-2 against that list -- with both losses coming without Shawndale Jones. In fact, the (4) wins came without him. But, they shouldn't get any extra credit for that. WL has played the whole year without its star. California has been without one of its stars all year, too.

While it sucks for those involved, I don't think they can use the asterisk system. It has to be (or, should be) cut and dry.

That's a fair point. Especially in this COVID-tinged year, there is probably NO team that has been full strength for the duration of the season.

[Inkblot]

A poster with the moniker Inkblot has been tweeting out weekly charts with the Performance Indicator numbers. As we know, the PI is a historically good indicator of the top 8. Here's where Inkblot's PI numbers stand right now for the Atlantic (as of this morning's post):

1. IUP
2. West Liberty
3. Fairmont
4. Cal
5. Mercyhurst
6. UPJ
7. WV State
8. Millersville
9. Ship
10. VUU

And we know that one CIAA team will get in the top-8 automatically, so technically, that means 'Ville is out as of now. Ship is a surprise that low. But it's not a terrible indicator overall.

A clarification: That order is how I think the teams would be ranked if the regional rankings came out today. It takes into account PI, RPI, head-to-heads, and record against other ranked teams. The PI itself can be found in the fourth and fifth columns.

Embedded Tweet

[Scrub]

Right. I listed them in the order of pure PI (based on column 4), as that has been a pretty respected metric here on the Atlantic board in the past.

But I did notice that your order differs slightly. Out of curiosity, what measures did you use, Inkblot, to deviate from the straight PI in column 4?

(And thanks, as always, for putting these numbers together. Know that there are some of us who do pay attention to your work and appreciate it)

[Inkblot]

Right. I listed them in the order of pure PI (based on column 4), as that has been a pretty respected metric here on the Atlantic board in the past.

But I did notice that your order differs slightly. Out of curiosity, what measures did you use, Inkblot, to deviate from the straight PI in column 4?

(And thanks, as always, for putting these numbers together. Know that there are some of us who do pay attention to your work and appreciate it)

Oops... I didn't read your comment closely enough. I'll fill in the gap, then: Charleston is 9th in PI, ahead of Shippensburg and Virginia Union.

I think RPI tends to have more weight than PI in regional rankings. My current method is 55% RPI + 33% PI + 10% SOS, then shifting teams around based on head-to-heads and results against ranked teams

[Ship69]

At the same time, though, when does that argument stop? If it applies to Ship, then it applies to IUP and West Liberty. IUP is also 4-2 against that list -- with both losses coming without Shawndale Jones. In fact, the (4) wins came without him. But, they shouldn't get any extra credit for that. WL has played the whole year without its star. California has been without one of its stars all year, too.

While it sucks for those involved, I don't think they can use the asterisk system. It has to be (or, should be) cut and dry.

That's fair enough as far as ratings go according to the human factor. But what I'm more concerned with is how absent players affect my particular team. If Ship could have avoided the injuries and been at 16-3 rather than 14-5, things would look a lot rosier for the rest of the season. Obviously that could be said for several of the other teams that were missing players as well, but that doesn't change the equation for Ship. I'm really not in favor of ranking teams according to who is playing or isn't playing as I think that brings too much of a subjective element into the rankings. You go with what you have, and we'll see how records stack up at the end of the season.