Tweet
It's time, you gambling degenerates, for the (un)official point spreads for Saturday. Anybody can take a guess and pick some straight winners. Adding the spreads makes it much more complicated. Feel free to make your picks below based on giving or taking the points. Believe it or not, earlier this season I had a sitting PSAC head coach private message me on here about not giving his team enough love in the point spreads. Records don't mean anything come Saturday. Every team below is 0-0 now. The loser goes home. So, here we go.
East Stroudsburg vs. Mercyhurst
The first game of the day just may be the best game of the day. Mercyhurst has a dazzling defensive reputation (and a very underrated offense). East Stroudsburg, however, has seemed to crack the magic formula when it comes to attacking Gary Manchel's infamous matchup zone. In fact, the Warriors have defeated the Lakers in 4 of the past 5 meetings -- including beating up Mercyhurst pretty good in Erie last season. Some of the players are different, of course, but the two long-time coaches and their philosophies are not.
This game has a lot of intrigue -- and, questions. A week ago ESU showed a different side against IUP -- abandoning its normal frantic press by attempting to play IUP at its own half-court game. It nearly worked. The Warriors are headlined by two of the best post players in Division II in Carlos Pepin and Lakeem McAliley. The Lakers have a star underneath, too, in Pipeloluwa Ajayi. But, they get real small, real fast, after him. Mercyhurst can shoot the lights out from outside. ESU's half-court game against IUP made it very tough on the Crimson Hawks to get clean outside shots. Running their press may backfire and open the floodgates for the Lakers' sharpshooters.
Vegas says this is the toughest game on the board. March is all about match-ups, and this isn't a good match-up for Mercyhurst. If Ajayi gets in early foul trouble -- which is likely being he'll be tasked with dealing with Pepin and McAliley, ESU is going to have a tremendous advantage. The Lakers will likely be forced early on to play both of their post players together, which offsets their typical four-guard advantage on the offensive end. East Stroudsburg has very big, fast guards. Warriors -2.5
Pitt-Johnstown at West Liberty
The coldest team in the field versus one of the hottest. A 6 to 7 man rotation versus 40 minutes of pressing and hockey line changes. There couldn't be a worse match-up for a UPJ team that looked visibly worn down and tired down the stretch. But, this isn't longtime UPJ coach Bob Rukavina's first rodeo. His team has had about 10 days off to rest. It's no secret, however, Pitt-Johnstown played 3 games against pressing teams and got blown out in all of them. The Mountain Cats are a very solid half-court team. This, however, won't even resemble a half-court game. The good news for UPJ is if any team can play slow -- it's them. They thrive in making 6 to 7 passes every possession, etc. They also are a smart team with a lot of experience. Vegas says UPJ may hang around for a bit and this may even be a game at halftime. But, West Liberty will eventually just tire them out. The Hilltoppers can score from all 5 positions. WL -17.5
Winston-Salem State at IUP
WSSU hasn't played since Feb. 25. A year ago, the Fayetteville State coach said after IUP beat them that the long layoff was a factor in their performance. However, this particular long break came at a good time as Winston-Salem is replacing its starting PG (broken wrist in CIAA Tournament). They do have a senior stepping in to the starting lineup. The bad news for the visitors, of course, is IUP has one of the best home-court advantages in the country. The Crimson Hawks are currently on a 30-game home winning streak, and have just one home loss in their past 50-some games. These two played earlier this season (neutral court in Clarion) but that was on the first weekend of the season. Regardless, there is some familiarity. Both teams are physical and showcase big post players and big, athletic guards. Vegas says the pressure is all on IUP. Winston-Salem is playing with house money at this point and has nothing to lose. IUP won the first meeting by 17 points, 67-50. This game will be closer. IUP's offense has become very sporadic but its defense is playing at an elite level. Winning in Indiana is too tall a task. IUP -9.5
Fairmont State vs. Virginia Union
Fairmont State loves to run-n-gun. Virginia Union loves to play a slow, physical, half-court game. Two very different philosophies here. That said, VU put up 88 points on the Falcons in late December in an 88-83 OT win. The telling stat was Virginia Union won the rebounding battle by an astounding 55-34. For FSU to advance, that cannot happen again. Fairmont State was lit up by VU's post players in the first meeting, who scored 25 and 21 points -- and totally dominated the boards. Vegas says this is a simple formula: whichever team controls the pace will win. Virginia Union's muscle will prevail in a PSAC gym. VU -5.5
East Stroudsburg vs. Mercyhurst
The first game of the day just may be the best game of the day. Mercyhurst has a dazzling defensive reputation (and a very underrated offense). East Stroudsburg, however, has seemed to crack the magic formula when it comes to attacking Gary Manchel's infamous matchup zone. In fact, the Warriors have defeated the Lakers in 4 of the past 5 meetings -- including beating up Mercyhurst pretty good in Erie last season. Some of the players are different, of course, but the two long-time coaches and their philosophies are not.
This game has a lot of intrigue -- and, questions. A week ago ESU showed a different side against IUP -- abandoning its normal frantic press by attempting to play IUP at its own half-court game. It nearly worked. The Warriors are headlined by two of the best post players in Division II in Carlos Pepin and Lakeem McAliley. The Lakers have a star underneath, too, in Pipeloluwa Ajayi. But, they get real small, real fast, after him. Mercyhurst can shoot the lights out from outside. ESU's half-court game against IUP made it very tough on the Crimson Hawks to get clean outside shots. Running their press may backfire and open the floodgates for the Lakers' sharpshooters.
Vegas says this is the toughest game on the board. March is all about match-ups, and this isn't a good match-up for Mercyhurst. If Ajayi gets in early foul trouble -- which is likely being he'll be tasked with dealing with Pepin and McAliley, ESU is going to have a tremendous advantage. The Lakers will likely be forced early on to play both of their post players together, which offsets their typical four-guard advantage on the offensive end. East Stroudsburg has very big, fast guards. Warriors -2.5
Pitt-Johnstown at West Liberty
The coldest team in the field versus one of the hottest. A 6 to 7 man rotation versus 40 minutes of pressing and hockey line changes. There couldn't be a worse match-up for a UPJ team that looked visibly worn down and tired down the stretch. But, this isn't longtime UPJ coach Bob Rukavina's first rodeo. His team has had about 10 days off to rest. It's no secret, however, Pitt-Johnstown played 3 games against pressing teams and got blown out in all of them. The Mountain Cats are a very solid half-court team. This, however, won't even resemble a half-court game. The good news for UPJ is if any team can play slow -- it's them. They thrive in making 6 to 7 passes every possession, etc. They also are a smart team with a lot of experience. Vegas says UPJ may hang around for a bit and this may even be a game at halftime. But, West Liberty will eventually just tire them out. The Hilltoppers can score from all 5 positions. WL -17.5
Winston-Salem State at IUP
WSSU hasn't played since Feb. 25. A year ago, the Fayetteville State coach said after IUP beat them that the long layoff was a factor in their performance. However, this particular long break came at a good time as Winston-Salem is replacing its starting PG (broken wrist in CIAA Tournament). They do have a senior stepping in to the starting lineup. The bad news for the visitors, of course, is IUP has one of the best home-court advantages in the country. The Crimson Hawks are currently on a 30-game home winning streak, and have just one home loss in their past 50-some games. These two played earlier this season (neutral court in Clarion) but that was on the first weekend of the season. Regardless, there is some familiarity. Both teams are physical and showcase big post players and big, athletic guards. Vegas says the pressure is all on IUP. Winston-Salem is playing with house money at this point and has nothing to lose. IUP won the first meeting by 17 points, 67-50. This game will be closer. IUP's offense has become very sporadic but its defense is playing at an elite level. Winning in Indiana is too tall a task. IUP -9.5
Fairmont State vs. Virginia Union
Fairmont State loves to run-n-gun. Virginia Union loves to play a slow, physical, half-court game. Two very different philosophies here. That said, VU put up 88 points on the Falcons in late December in an 88-83 OT win. The telling stat was Virginia Union won the rebounding battle by an astounding 55-34. For FSU to advance, that cannot happen again. Fairmont State was lit up by VU's post players in the first meeting, who scored 25 and 21 points -- and totally dominated the boards. Vegas says this is a simple formula: whichever team controls the pace will win. Virginia Union's muscle will prevail in a PSAC gym. VU -5.5
Comment