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Yes most likely a great shot is what it would take either way. Most likely it's going to be a long 3 point shot so being up 1 or 2 is virtually no difference. By missing you make the clock start sooner and force them into 3/4 court shot instead of half court.
About the only way it backfires is if they get rebound and can get a long pass up the court and 2 point shot off that beats you when you were up 1 instead of 2. That's probably more unlikely with that amount of time.
I'm sure someone out there has probabilities for the situation. Would be interesting to see what the data says is the best play in that situation.
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