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  • Regional ranking predictions

    Atlantic Region
    1. Indiana (20-2)
    2. Shippensburg (19-5)
    3. Fairmont State (17-5)
    4. West Liberty (20-4)
    5. Charleston (19-5)
    6. Virginia State (19-7)
    7. West Virginia State (16-6)
    8. Pitt Johnstown (16-6)
    9. Johnson C. Smith (17-6)
    10. California (15-8)

  • #2
    Central RegionBeing the only conference with four teams in the top 10, coupled with being the only conference that plays a double round robin, means that the GAC teams have played more games against other top 10 teams than the MIAA and NSIC teams have. That could prove to be helpful for the conference. Meanwhile, Missouri Southern is 0-2 against the rest of the top 10, Northern State is 1-4, and Sioux Falls is 1-1. (Is 1-1 really a worse record than 3-4? Maybe not, but Oklahoma Baptist's 3-4 includes wins over SEOSU and SNU.)

    I expect these teams, in some order, to be the committee's top 10. Upper Iowa has a nice 4-1 mark against the top 10, but I don't think that's enough to get them in.

    Comment


    • #3
      East Region
      1. Bridgeport (20-2)
      2. Jefferson (22-2)
      3. St. Thomas Aquinas (20-4)
      4. Dominican NY (19-5)
      5. Daemen (21-6)
      6. Le Moyne (18-7)
      7. St. Anselm (15-8)
      8. Stonehill (15-10)
      9. Post (17-8)
      10. Franklin Pierce (14-8)
      Last edited by Inkblot; 02-17-2020, 02:46 PM.

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      • #4
        Midwest Regional
        1. Indianapolis (18-5)
        2. Bellarmine (16-6)
        3. Truman (17-7)
        4. UMSL (15-5)
        5. Ferris State (20-5)
        6. Grand Valley State (18-5)
        7. Southern Indiana (18-5)
        8. Davenport (16-8)
        9. Walsh (15-4)
        10. Michigan Tech (15-8)
        This region is a mess.

        In my weighted average, there's a logjam from #2 through #6. And another from #8 through... well, it's hard to tell exactly where that one ends, but it goes way past tenth. Among those just outside this top 10 (and potentially inside the committee's top 10) are Findlay, Drury, Ashland, Southwest Baptist, and Rockhurst.

        One thing I think is clear, though, is that the GMAC will be a one-bid conference. The odds of a GMAC team losing in the conference tournament and remaining in the top seven seem low.
        Last edited by Inkblot; 02-17-2020, 02:48 PM.

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        • #5
          South Region

          Comment


          • #6
            South Central Region
            1. West Texas A&M (22-1)
            2. St. Edward's (19-2)
            3. Dixie State (21-4)
            4. Black Hills State (17-6)
            5. Angelo State (15-6)
            6. Texas A&M Kingsville (17-6)
            7. Colorado Mines (18-8)
            8. Dallas Baptist (14-7)
            9. Lubbock Christian (12-8)
            10. Colorado Mesa (13-9)
            There's a lot of separation in my weighted average. The top four teams each have a significant gap between them and the next team in line. Angelo State and Texas A&M Kingsville are virtually tied, with the deciding factor here being that ASU is 2-4 against the rest of the top 10 with a sweep of Lubbock Christian whereas TAMUK is 0-4. The Javelinas have ample opportunity to improve that mark, however, with games against ASU, LSU, and Dallas Baptist approaching.

            I admit Colorado Mesa is an uninspiring choice for the #10 spot, being 0-6 against teams ahead of them. The other options were Tarleton State (1-7 with a split with DBU) and South Dakota Mines (1-3 with a win over Colorado Mines, plus head-to-head over Colorado Mesa), but neither seemed impressive enough to offset the difference in the numerical criteria.

            Comment


            • #7
              Southeast Region
              1. Lincoln Memorial (23-1)
              2. UNC Pembroke (19-5)
              3. Queens NC (18-6)
              4. Catawba (18-6)
              5. Augusta (17-7)
              6. Lander (17-7)
              7. King (17-6)
              8. Tusculum (16-10)
              9. USC Aiken (17-9)
              10. Southern Wesleyan (15-10)
              With three weeks left before Selection Sunday, only seven Southeast teams have loss totals below nine.

              UNC Pembroke's six wins over other teams in the top 10 narrowly outweighed Queens' head-to-head win. USC Aiken has a great RPI, but not much in the way of good wins to show for it; this fact and their loss to Tusculum dropped them behind the Pioneers.

              Southern Wesleyan emerged out of a close race for 10th, beating out Columbus State, Belmont Abbey, Emmanuel, and Anderson. It wouldn't surprise me to see any of those in the committee's top 10.

              King looks like a probable at-large team should they lose in the CC tournament. If the Tornado win(s) the auto bid, it may still be possible for another CC team to sneak into the eighth spot.

              Comment


              • #8
                West Region
                1. UC San Diego (24-1)
                2. Azusa Pacific (21-3)
                3. Cal Poly Pomona (17-5)
                4. Chico State (17-6)
                5. Cal State San Bernardino (18-5)
                6. Seattle Pacific (18-5)
                7. Point Loma Nazarene (17-6)
                8. Concordia CA (18-7)
                9. Western Oregon (16-6)
                10. Chaminade (15-6)
                The GNAC is in a similar position to Conference Carolinas (as described in the previous post). If these rankings went to 16, it's possible five of the six additions would be from the GNAC. For now, Western Oregon isn't helped by their only games against other teams in this top 10 being a sweep at the hands of Seattle Pacific. As for SPU, they're in good shape to get in, but not to get a high seed, as three of their five losses came to the current #2, #3, and #4.

                I feel pretty confident in these ten being in the official rankings.

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