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2019 Midwest Regional

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  • 2019 Midwest Regional

    Thought I'd start a new threat for the regional.

    USI may have gotten a pretty good break in the seeding. I know Ashland has a good record, but they are only 5-5 in their last 10, and it's not against killer competition. Lewis and Bellarmine have drawn teams with lesser records but are much hotter than Ashland. GVSU is 7-1 in their last 8. Walsh is 13-0 in their last 13, including wins over Findlay and Hillsdale.

  • #2
    Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    I agree....this is a good draw for USI.

    Originally posted by Knightmoves View Post
    Thought I'd start a new threat for the regional.

    USI may have gotten a pretty good break in the seeding. I know Ashland has a good record, but they are only 5-5 in their last 10, and it's not against killer competition. Lewis and Bellarmine have drawn teams with lesser records but are much hotter than Ashland. GVSU is 7-1 in their last 8. Walsh is 13-0 in their last 13, including wins over Findlay and Hillsdale.

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    • #3

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      • #4
        Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

        Masseys predicted scores and probabilities:

        Drury 71 vs. Findlay 72 (50/50)
        Walsh 64 vs. Bellarmine 73 (20/80)
        Grand Valley 67 at Lewis 73 (30/70)
        Ashland 69 vs. Southern Indiana 72 (41/59)

        Findlay 69 vs. Bellarmine 77 (25/75)
        Southern Indiana 73 at Lewis 75 (41/59)

        Bellarmine 71 at Lewis 66 (65/35)

        I'm thinking that Massey is a little overconfident on BU at Lewis, but I guess we'll find out. USI can have a good chance of upsetting Lewis to give us the long anticipated 4th matchup of BU/USI.

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        • #5
          Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

          Originally posted by schnautza View Post
          Masseys predicted scores and probabilities:

          Drury 71 vs. Findlay 72 (50/50)
          Walsh 64 vs. Bellarmine 73 (20/80)
          Grand Valley 67 at Lewis 73 (30/70)
          Ashland 69 vs. Southern Indiana 72 (41/59)

          Findlay 69 vs. Bellarmine 77 (25/75)
          Southern Indiana 73 at Lewis 75 (41/59)

          Bellarmine 71 at Lewis 66 (65/35)

          I'm thinking that Massey is a little overconfident on BU at Lewis, but I guess we'll find out. USI can have a good chance of upsetting Lewis to give us the long anticipated 4th matchup of BU/USI.
          I can't believe GV is that close to Lewis. I would have guessed a 15-20 point win, and 95/5 favoring Lewis. Haha
          2021 D2Football Fantasy Champion

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          • #6
            Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

            And, for the women since I was kind of curious:

            KY Wesleyan 60 at Drury 86 (2/98)
            Ashland 69 vs. Northern Michigan 60 (79/21)
            Lewis 77 vs. Walsh 66 (83/17)
            Grand Valley 71 vs. Truman 61 (80/20)

            Ashland 74 at Drury 83 (21/79)
            Lewis 65 vs. Grand Valley 69 (40/60)

            Grand Valley 61 at Drury 72 (17/83)

            I think the 3/6 and 4/5 matchups in the first round could/should be closer than that. Not sure anyone stays within 10 of Drury the entire way.

            Originally posted by schnautza View Post
            Masseys predicted scores and probabilities:

            Drury 71 vs. Findlay 72 (50/50)
            Walsh 64 vs. Bellarmine 73 (20/80)
            Grand Valley 67 at Lewis 73 (30/70)
            Ashland 69 vs. Southern Indiana 72 (41/59)

            Findlay 69 vs. Bellarmine 77 (25/75)
            Southern Indiana 73 at Lewis 75 (41/59)

            Bellarmine 71 at Lewis 66 (65/35)

            I'm thinking that Massey is a little overconfident on BU at Lewis, but I guess we'll find out. USI can have a good chance of upsetting Lewis to give us the long anticipated 4th matchup of BU/USI.

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            • #7
              Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

              The problem with Massey numerical ratings is that there does not seem to be any weight given to momentum. If you were gambling on these games, you'd probably put some stock into whether a team is on a roll or backing in. Massey also counts non-d2 games, although it obviously considers overall SOS. Having issued that criticism, I still think those numbers are as good a prediction as you are going to get. The way to test them is to pick a winner against the spread, if it seems tough to do, they are pretty accurate.

              Seems like its been a while since no teams from the same conference are playing each other in the first round, so I went and looked. Its only the second time in 11 years, the other time was 2016. There are no rematches in the first round as well.

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              • #8
                Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

                I really think that BU has a tough opponent in Walsh. Walsh is 19-7 in D2 games. They started the season 6-7 in D2 games. They are very young. Their leading scorer is a 6'7" freshman, JT Shumate, who is scoring 19 a game on 52% shooting, 44 % from 3. There are only 2 seniors on the team and they are 8th and 9th in minutes played. Sterling Christy averages a double double (13.5/10). He is the kind of power player that can really hurt BU on the boards. Their season reflects how young the team is, starting poorly but getting better as the season progresses. They played Findlay twice, both at Findlay and lost the first game by a point and won the GMAC final at Findlay. I don't think the GMAC was as good as the GLVC this year, but their 12 game win streak includes wins over Ohio Dom, Lake Erie, Hillsdale, and Findlay, all of whom are solid to good teams.

                On a slightly different note, respcectfully, how does Walsh sign a player as good as Shumate right out of high school? I'd be interested in knowing who else recruited him.

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                • #9
                  Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

                  Shumate is very similar to their 6'7" point guard that they had last year who transferred to D1 Winthrop. He's more of a point forward, though, as they've got a true point guard in Straughter who is quick and an excellent ball handler. Shumate can shoot the 3 or beat you off the dribble. Sterling Christy is an extremely strong power forward. Walsh doesn't have a lot of depth, but their top players are very good.

                  I do think Walsh is a dangerous draw for anyone in the Regional. They have been playing white-hot basketball over the last month or more of the season, and they definitely can create matchup problems. Naturally Bellarmine comes in a heavy favorite, but Walsh is definitely not a team to be taken lightly.

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                  • #10
                    Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

                    Shumate played at Newark High School just outside of Columbus, and may have been overlooked a little as Columbus was loaded with D I talent last year. Schumate signed pretty early last year if I remember correctly. Saw him play a few times in high school and while I thought he was damn good, I would have never thought he would have this kind of freshman season. I believe I heard his father is the girls hs coach at Newark, but not sure as I don't watch much girls basketball (no offense ladies). As to why he wasn't recruited any higher, I am not sure. It will be interesting to see how he fares against all the length Bellarmine has.
                    Great matchups in the quarterfinals. The 4-5, 3-6 games are obvious toss-ups, but I think the 1-8 game is more intriguing then it has been in a long time. GVSU is playing extrememly well and has already won two true road games this post season.
                    I have Bellarmine as the favorite. Enjoy the games everyone!!

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                    • #11
                      Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

                      I am going to predict 2 of the 3 top seeds get upset in first...and whomever is left out of those 3 will win region.

                      USI...will come out not prepared and get beat by Ashland...same story every year the team will not be ready and Ashland will not be scouted correctly and they will beat usi doing whatever they do best because USI will have no clue what that is and how to stop it.

                      Not hating on USI...its just we all have seen this song and dance and it repeats every year...GROUNDWOD DAY

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                      • #12
                        Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

                        Groundwod Day. That is really good. History is hard to ignore and thus hard to bet on Wod in the tournament. His teams ALWAYS come out flat in the tournament. Even in his 1 win against a roster depleted Wayne State team, we stunk the court up in that win. If I had to bet it would be on Ashland. Grand Valley State is my big upset that I am picking. They have 3 D I starters and the only legitimate shot blocker in the tournament. I have Findlay beating Drury and Bellarmine being the only GLVC team winning.





                        Originally posted by HoosierDaddy View Post
                        I am going to predict 2 of the 3 top seeds get upset in first...and whomever is left out of those 3 will win region.

                        USI...will come out not prepared and get beat by Ashland...same story every year the team will not be ready and Ashland will not be scouted correctly and they will beat usi doing whatever they do best because USI will have no clue what that is and how to stop it.

                        Not hating on USI...its just we all have seen this song and dance and it repeats every year...GROUNDWOD DAY

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                        • #13
                          Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

                          My picks for the first round:

                          Lewis (very close game)
                          Bellarmine
                          USI (just to be contrary)
                          Findlay (another close one)

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                          • #14
                            Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

                            I'm going with top seeds except Drury for the first round.

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                            • #15
                              Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

                              Originally posted by schnautza View Post
                              I'm going with top seeds except Drury for the first round.
                              Really...a GLVC sweep?!? Bold

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