There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

[Herb Street]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

You are correct that Texas and OU can go to any conference they choose, just not on any terms they choose. I doubt any major conference would allow Texas to exercise the degree of control they have had over the Big 12. You are also correct about UT not being a good cultural fit with the SEC, at least in their opinion. They imagine themselves above the SEC academically. I reality, Texas would rank fourth in the SEC in academics, per USNWR.

The big question is what happens to the remaining 8 Big 12 schools when Texas and OU bolt. I suppose they could stick with 8 - the Big 8 certainly did it for years. But would it be in the P5 mix? And the media payout per school - that would be cut dramatically - Texas Tech and KU would probably bring more to the media value than any of the remaining schools, and that's not saying a whole lot. North Texas and SMU might be the most logical invitees. At least they would bring additional media to the table as well as some cross-town rivalries.

Right now Texas and OU get about $34 mil per year each in media revenue. Nice, but that's a full 35 percent less than the B1G schools. $18 million per year, $180 million over ten years. That's a lot of dough. If they bolted to the B1G, they would add such value to the B1G that the payouts would likely adjust to $60 mil per school rather quickly.

So OU and UT will have to decide which they want - control or money. I think their desire to dance on the big stage every week on network TV, and add another $25 mil to the bottom line each year, will have them moving to the B1G as the Grant of Rights expires in 2025. But look for an announcement well before that - likely 2 full years before that - coinciding with the B1G's next round of media negotiations.

[catatonic]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

Texas and OU can go to whatever conference they wish. It would be beneath Texas to go to the SEC, which they perceive as a deep-south NASCAR conference. Big cultural difference. That doesn't fit with UT's image. The PAC couldn't offer enough dollars. The ACC is all east schools - I don't see any fit there.

As for OU, I don't see them going anywhere without Texas.

It will be the B1G for OU and Texas or they will stay in the Big 12 and run their own conference. There are definite benefits to that, but the dollars aren't there for media payouts long term.

You are correct that Texas and OU can go to any conference they choose, just not on any terms they choose. I doubt any major conference would allow Texas to exercise the degree of control they have had over the Big 12. You are also correct about UT not being a good cultural fit with the SEC, at least in their opinion. They imagine themselves above the SEC academically. I reality, Texas would rank fourth in the SEC in academics, per USNWR.

[Herb Street]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

Texas and OU can go to whatever conference they wish. It would be beneath Texas to go to the SEC, which they perceive as a deep-south NASCAR conference. Big cultural difference. That doesn't fit with UT's image. The PAC couldn't offer enough dollars. The ACC is all east schools - I don't see any fit there.

As for OU, I don't see them going anywhere without Texas.

It will be the B1G for OU and Texas or they will stay in the Big 12 and run their own conference. There are definite benefits to that, but the dollars aren't there for media payouts long term.

[bigmrg74]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

Texas won't go to B1G. Texas will push for SEC. Also being a Nebraska fan... Screw Texas, they'd ruin the B1G.

Ohio State and Michigan would pretty easily tell Texas to piss off if they get pushy about demands. They'll end up playing from Halloween to the end of the regular season up north in such locations such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa. Let them suck on that for a while and see how much they like that. Hell, push the Big Ten enough and they might just take the Oklahoma schools and look at one of the other Texas schools to cut the Big 12 off at the knees.

[IUPNation]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

Texas won't go to B1G. Texas will push for SEC. Also being a Nebraska fan... Screw Texas, they'd ruin the B1G.

I don't see Alabamastan or A&M wanting them in SEC.

The SEC should take in West Virginia. They already have the Hatfields in Kentucky so why not take in the McCoys that is West Virginia.

Then there could be a Hillbilly Bowl every season when the Wildcats take on the Mountaineers.

[Runnin' Cat]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

Texas won't go to B1G. Texas will push for SEC. Also being a Nebraska fan... Screw Texas, they'd ruin the B1G.

Do you think A&M would not fight a Texas/SEC move?

[catatonic]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

Texas won't go to B1G. Texas will push for SEC. Also being a Nebraska fan... Screw Texas, they'd ruin the B1G.

[JR Chaney]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

Actually...Texas and Oklahoma wouldn't be bad additions to the BIG. They would slot in nicely in the West division and Purdue would slide over to the East.

East
Penn State
Maryland
The State University of New Jersey ( Opps I mean Rutgers)
The Overrated State University
Meatchicken
Meatchicken State
Indiana
Purdue

West
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Northwestern
Illinois
Nebraska
Iowa
Oklahoma
Texas

Texas won't go to B1G. Texas will push for SEC. Also being a Nebraska fan... Screw Texas, they'd ruin the B1G.

[IUPNation]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

Actually...Texas and Oklahoma wouldn't be bad additions to the BIG. They would slot in nicely in the West division and Purdue would slide over to the East.

East
Penn State
Maryland
The State University of New Jersey ( Opps I mean Rutgers)
The Overrated State University
Meatchicken
Meatchicken State
Indiana
Purdue

West
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Northwestern
Illinois
Nebraska
Iowa
Oklahoma
Texas

[IUPNation]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

They haven't gotten the knack of cheating down like the SEC.

[njmav1]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

I found this on another site. It seems totally crazy to me because the BIG is the big money maker. I don't see it splitting up like this guy does. But then again, I just drink chocolate milk.

You're right, it seems out there.

When Rutgers and Maryland were announced as the newest members a few years ago, everyone only talked about the athletic conference- especially in comparison to the SEC. But I kept reminding everyone (who would care to listen) that unlike other conferences, the B1G is also an academic association. I argued that as far as Rutgers was concerned, an affiliation with B1G schools was worth more (in the long term) than whatever money they earn on the athletic side. It's understandable since the value of the conference's media contract will get more news than all the research opportunities (and dollars that come it). I think AAU membership means a lot to the schools and admitting a non AAU member will probably generate quite a bit of debate and soul searching. Notre Dame is the exception because there are so few D1 hockey programs (Johns Hopkins is an AAU member).

However, I do admit that further consolidation in D1 conferences is a real possibility, and likely at the expense of the Big XII. I just don't think the B1G will lead the charge to 16 until the SEC/ACC/PAC12 gets the ball rolling. No school will want to get a smaller share of the revenues so any expansion candidate will have to wait to get a full share just as Nebraska did and Maryland/Rutgers are doing now. Rutgers gets a smaller share than Maryland because Rutgers' AAC payout was much smaller than Maryland's ACC payout. Texas and OU would likely get a "partial" share closer to what Maryland is getting, so that has to be a huge consideration. I don't know if the current media contract pays more if the conference expands.

Now no one has talked about how you run a 16 school conference. We're talking about a geographic footprint that spans the Midwest and half the Northeast. Texas and OU expands that footprint considerably and fragments it as well. Expanded travel will put more pressure on budgets, so geography will be an issue. I can see an expansion to 16 giving the two 8 team divisions greater scheduling coherence/autonomy which means fewer games with the other division. Yes, historical rivalries take a hit. At that point, you could argue for expansion to 18 and go with 3 divisions of 6. It makes some sense because you could emphasize the smaller division rivalries (smaller geographic footprint) and minimize the travel to the other divisions.

My point is that potential revenue isn't the only consideration to take into account. I'm sure the sixteen B1G presidents and athletic directors look at it that way and have way more data at their disposal than anyone of us on this board. Regardless of the school and their location, there's a cost to expansion. Expansion would have to bring in significantly more dollars than what the B1G brings in now and in the short term. Also, I would not put less value on AAU membership. Any candidate who doesn't have it would have to bring something to the conference academically.

Anyway, this has been a good topic for discussion- plenty of good (and interesting) points on all sides.

[laker]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

I found this on another site. It seems totally crazy to me because the BIG is the big money maker. I don't see it splitting up like this guy does. But then again, I just drink chocolate milk.

"The focus of future conference expansion has primarily been on the BIG XII, either expanding from beyond the P5 and/or getting picked apart by expansion from the o/P5(P4) conferences. I look for the 3 power conferences in warm areas to pull from both BIGs. Ohio St., Penn St and Texas will be the biggest targets due to the talent pools for FB. Michigan and Oklahoma would be next, with Michigan St, Texas Tech and Oklahoma St coming in a package.

The ACC could experience a few scenarios:
W/Ohio St. only, the conference moves to 16 total. I think Pitt would block Penn St from joining and the SEC is the more likely destination for the NL's anyway.

The Michigan schools joining and ND remaining independent for FB but increasing the # of ACC games to schedule each year, would allow room for USC, Stanford, Navy on a schedule with so many traditional ND rivals now in the ACC. BB is secondary but how about that conference!?

Most feel that the Texas and possibly Oklahoma schools are destined for the PAC, but if they went with the BIG schools instead, the ACC could still get Texas creating the same situation mentioned above w/Ohio St.; w/Texas Tech also, the same as mentioned with both Michigan schools {Still quite a BB conference}.
Having 17 teams for no FB sports could be worked out as would the quad/pod system for FB.

PG16"

[bigmrg74]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

Agree. If the B1G gets a foothold in the south central with two flagship universities, the league changes considerably. Texas and OU are the most likely targets because both bring in the state of Texas, and both will be looking at their options a few years before the GOR expires. Neither of those schools is getting the piece of pie that they could elsewhere.

Yeah, but do you honestly think that the State of Oklahoma would let the Sooners jump to the Big Ten without the Cowboys tagging along, or at least working out a deal where the Pokes get at least an SEC invite and they keep the Rivalry game? Too many politicians would have their hands in on that one, and that's an issue that would get bipartisan support in Oklahoma. Too many OSU fans there that would madder than hell if they got stuck into a new Mountain West if the Big 12 falls apart.

[Brandon]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

I can't speak for Nebraska's program per se, but overall I think the conference with all of the dough will end up on top.

It will be interesting. I don't have a dog in the fight, I have just heard a lot about the general population heading to sunbelt states and kids wanting to play where it's warmer.

[Herb Street]

Re: There's the B1G, and then there is everyone else

Since 2001 through 2017, only 4 National Champions have come from outside the southeastern states, and the conferences within the southeast also are now at the top at sending players to the NFL. The top 2 highest rated televised games ever, both involved teams from the southeast.
So yes, weather may have something to do with the recent trend and overall success of Division 1 football.

No argument there. I am only referring to very recent trending. It was only a few years ago that the Big 10 was a joke. As in they might only win one or two bowl games per season. Coaches were second rate, athletes were slow. This past bowl season, they went 7-1. It could be a one year deal, but I sense with the Big 10 scoring such an unprecedented media payout, the winds of change may be blowing.

I'm not a Big 10 sunshine pumper, just making some observations about the landscape of Power 5.