Massey's Playoff Projections

[GWolf]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

It would appear that the Bennett Rankings have fallen in love with the MIAA as well.

1 NW Missouri St ( 10-2) 0 100.00 18
2 Valdosta St ( 10-0) 0 96.13 3
3 Tarleton St ( 11-0) 0 95.65 6
4 CSUP ( 11-1) 0 94.63 9
5 Ferris St ( 12-0) 0 91.71 2
6 Lenoir-Rhyne ( 11-1) 0 90.00 17
7 Fort Hays St ( 9-3) 0 89.46 19
8 Grand Valley St ( 10-2) 0 88.30 7
9 Central Oklahoma ( 7-4) 0 87.34
10 Colorado Mines ( 10-2) 0 87.10 14
11 Pitt State ( 8-3) 0 86.45
12 Indianapolis ( 10-1) 0 85.74 12
13 Ouachita Baptist ( 11-0) 0 85.26 4
14 West Chester ( 10-1) 0 83.76 8
15 West Georgia ( 10-2) 0 83.53 10
16 Ashland ( 6-4) 0 83.32
17 Harding ( 9-3) 0 83.23 21
18 Texas A&M-Comm. ( 10-2) 0 82.65 15
19 Emporia St ( 7-4) 0 82.33
20 Midwestern St ( 8-2) 0 82.04 16
21 Nebraska-Kearney ( 5-6) 0 82.02
22 Saginaw Valley ( 8-3) 0 80.56
23 Missouri West St ( 6-5) 0 80.53
24 Wingate ( 9-3) 0 80.22
25 LIU-Post ( 10-1) 0 79.99 13

Right. Minnesota 33, not even in the top 25. Nice to know. We'll have a nice easy win up there next Saturday! :wink:

[chargerblue]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

First Round
#5 Hillsdale def. #4 Kutztown, 31-28.
#2 LIU Post def. #7 Slippery Rock, 28-24.
#3 West Chester def. #6 New Haven, 31-14.

#5 West Alabama def. #4 Bowie State, 31-14.
#2 West Georgia def. #7 Wingate, 34-16.
#3 Lenoir-Rhyne def. #6 Florida Tech, 35-28.

#5 Fort Hays def. #4 Indianapolis, 24-17.
#2 Ferris State def. #7 Harding, 30-23. (Won but didn't cover)
#6 Northwest Missouri def. #3 Grand Valley, 28-20.

#4 Colorado Mines def. #5 CSU Pueblo, 31-28.
#2 Tarleton State def. #7 Azusa Pacific, 41-21.
#3 Minnesota-Duluth def. #6 Texas A&M Commerce, 26-24.

5-7 in round one. Kinda busts your bracket.
4-8 against the spread. Kinda busts the bankroll.

[canadarican]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

"Massey" had about as bad of a day predicting the 1st round as any of us did in the pick em. He did bounce back in the D3 bracket I did.

Went 15-1 in the 1st round, missing only Randolph-Macon's win over John Carroll. If this were like the March Madness pick em's, he'd be in good shape even with John Carroll's loss, because he had them losing to Muhlenberg in the 2nd round anyways.

[canadarican]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Massey Ratings 2nd Round Predictions. Pretty interesting....

Super Region One
#5 HILLSDALE defeats #1 Notre Dame, 28-18. Win probability is 76% for the Chargers.
#7 SLIPPERY ROCK defeats #6 New Haven, 31-28. Win Probability is 58% for The Rock.

Super Region Two
#1 VALDOSTA STATE defeats #4 Bowie State, 49-21. Win probability is 98% for the Blazers.
#3 LENOIR-RHYNE defeats #7 Wingate, 38-28. Win probability is 78% for the Bears.

Super Region Three
#1 OUACHITA BAPTIST defeats #4 Indianapolis, 24-19. Win probability is 64% for the Tigers.
#6 NORTHWEST MISSOURI defeats #2 Ferris State, 31-24. Win probability is 73% for the Bearcats.

Super Region Four
#5 CSU-PUEBLO defeats #1 Minnesota State, 34-14. Win probability is 91% for the Thunderwolves!
#2 TARLETON STATE defeats #6 Texas A&M-Commerce, 36-24. Win probability is 81% for the Texans.

[Uwfalum98]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

So he is a Hokie that taught at an all girls school, I guess he's not so bad.

[Twincitiesmav]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Massey Ratings 2nd Round Predictions. Pretty interesting....

Super Region One
#5 HILLSDALE defeats #1 Notre Dame, 28-18. Win probability is 76% for the Chargers.
#7 SLIPPERY ROCK defeats #6 New Haven, 31-28. Win Probability is 58% for The Rock.

Super Region Two
#1 VALDOSTA STATE defeats #4 Bowie State, 49-21. Win probability is 98% for the Blazers.
#3 LENOIR-RHYNE defeats #7 Wingate, 38-28. Win probability is 78% for the Bears.

Super Region Three
#1 OUACHITA BAPTIST defeats #4 Indianapolis, 24-19. Win probability is 64% for the Tigers.
#6 NORTHWEST MISSOURI defeats #2 Ferris State, 31-24. Win probability is 73% for the Bearcats.

Super Region Four
#5 CSU-PUEBLO defeats #1 Minnesota State, 34-14. Win probability is 91% for the Thunderwolves!
#2 TARLETON STATE defeats #6 Texas A&M-Commerce, 36-24. Win probability is 81% for the Texans.

Hmmm? Wonder why Massey has Pueblo over MSU so confidently?

[Turbonium]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Hmmm? Wonder why Massey has Pueblo over MSU so confidently?

Assume due to who MSU has played and Pueblo's defense is likely very highly ranked by Massey. I'd be beyond surprised if the final margin is more than 7 points either way.

Massey has the Mankato SOS at 152nd, Pueblo at 25th. Pueblo defense is ranked 2nd, Mankato 66th.

[laker]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Assume due to who MSU has played and Pueblo's defense is likely very highly ranked by Massey. I'd be beyond surprised if the final margin is more than 7 points either way.

Massey has the Mankato SOS at 152nd, Pueblo at 25th. Pueblo defense is ranked 2nd, Mankato 66th.

I can see Pueblo winning but that is a heck of a difference for a road team. Of course math was always my worst subject. I guess Massey must know better than me.

[Turbonium]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

I can see Pueblo winning but that is a heck of a difference for a road team. Of course math was always my worst subject. I guess Massey must know better than me.

Based on first round results, Massey clearly doesn't know better.

[canadarican]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Hmmm? Wonder why Massey has Pueblo over MSU so confidently?

I'm not sure either. I know he had Mines defeating MSU in the 2nd round anyways, so maybe that has something to do with it? IDK, I'm making stuff up now. I like Pueblo's chances (sorry laker), but IDK about 20 points.

Folks need to calm down. It's a win probability, not a win guarantee. Especially considering most of the ones he "missed" we're pretty surprising upsets or 50-50 games. I don't know too many people that had Slippery Rock, New Haven, Wingate, and UIndy winning. I certainly didn't see Wingate handling business against UWG, and the other ones were toss ups (Mines/Pueblo, Bowie/UWA. Commerce/Duluth).

[Matt Witwicki]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

I think Massey is pretty high on CSUP when you look at these data points....CSUP beat Commerce..and then Commerce beat UMD by 16 at home....a NSIC team that was ranked almost identically by Massey the previous week. But yes, Massey was already bigger on the RMAC than the NSIC anyhow.

It's been shown that Massey is using the previous season to shape their rankings this year as well....and if so..here are the non-conference results for the NSIC from 2017..
Loss = Commerce over Winona
Loss = MW State over USF
Win = Mankato over CSUP
Win = Mankato over MW State
Loss = Commerce over Mankato
Loss = CMU over Duluth (MWB Game)

So with the last 4 OOC games landing the NSIC at 2-5....that likely colors this as well.

[Lobo]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Hmmm? Wonder why Massey has Pueblo over MSU so confidently?

IF,CSU-Pueblo wins, it's going to be a hell of a lot closer than that.

[Boohaha]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

IF,CSU-Pueblo wins, it's going to be a hell of a lot closer than that.

Im not sure, last year Pueblos defense nearly won the game single handedly, this year the offense is much improved. NSIC may have dropped quite a but this year from last due to graduation attrition.

I have pueblo penciled in regional championship, but wint be suprised if Kato wins either.

[We-Are-Lions]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Im not sure, last year Pueblos defense nearly won the game single handedly, this year the offense is much improved. NSIC may have dropped quite a but this year from last due to graduation attrition.

I have pueblo penciled in regional championship, but wint be suprised if Kato wins either.

[Turbonium]

Re: Massey's Playoff Projections

Supposed to be 39 with a 9 mph wind in Saturday up in Mankato so doesn't look like weather will at all impact anything. Pueblo won't use the running QB, he didn't play a single down against Commerce or against Mines this past Saturday, don't expect to see him this week either. The starter has thrown 1 int in 214 attempts, the backup has thrown 2 in 32 attempts and has some fumbles as well. I expect the Pueblo defense to do what they've done all year and get in the backfield and force turnovers. They did it against Commerce, did it against Mines, and did it against Mankato last year. Still don't think they get the respect they should by others. They won't be starting a 2nd string QB this year and all 4 RBs are as healthy as you can expect at this point in the season. Will be another close game but I like the odds for Pueblo much more this year than last. Mankato is very good but I don't think they've played against a defense anywhere near as talented as Pueblo. Going to be another great physical playoff match-up between these two. If either team wins by a 20 point margin I would be shocked.