SR 3 Playoff chances

[chapmaja]

Here is how the top Ten in the region did today, and what they have upcoming. I will conclude with my predictions for next week as to who gets into the post-season.

#1 Ferris State beat #6 GVSU 21-16. Season finished.

#2 Central Missouri beat Lincoln 73-6 #7 NWMSU next weekend.

#3 OBU beat Ark - Mont 35-7 next up #9 Henderson State

#4 Harding beat SE Ok. 35-14 next up Ark. Tech

#5 Indy beat Truman State 44-28 next up Lake Erie

#6 GVSU lost to #1 Ferris 21-9. Next up Wayne State

#7 NWMSU beat #10 Ft. Hays State 36-33 in 2OT. Next vs #2 Central Missouri.

#8 Missouri Western lost to UNK 49-21. Next vs Lincoln.

#9 Henderson State beat S. Arkansas 38-31 next vs #3 OBU

#10 Ft. Hay State lost to #7 NWMSU 36-33 in 2OT, next vs Northeastern.


My take on the regional rankings for next week will be this.

#1 Ferris

#2 OBU

#3 C. Missouri.

#4 Harding

#5 Indy

#6 NWMSU

#7 Henderson St.

#8 GVSU

#9 Missouri Western*

#10 Ft. Hays State*

I would put Ft. Hays ahead based on recent performance, but Missouri Western does have a head to head win.


What will it take to make the playoffs?

Locks:

Ferris, OBU and C. Missouri.

Near Lock:

Harding and Indy - Harding finishes with 3-7 Ark. Tech, while Indy finishes with Lake Erie who is 3-7.

Things get dicey:

NWMSU - Big win today to keep their hopes alive. If they beat C. Missouri next week they are obviously in. They should be in no matter what, but if they lose to C. Missouri and Henderson State and GVSU both win next week, NWMSU could find themselves on the outside looking in.

Henderson St. - They jump in this week, and if they beat OBU next week they stay in. A loss to OBU and it becomes interesting as to who gets in.

GVSU - The Lakers had a chance to lock up a playoff spot today, but couldn't get by Ferris. They have Wayne State next week. Wayne State actually sits ahead of GVSU in the GLIAC standings, but two non-conference losses to Slippery Rock and Truman State (this one really hurt WSU) are keeping them out of the top 10. GVSU's playoff hopes ride on a win and a loss by either Henderson State or NWMSU. A Henderson State loss should give GVSU a playoff spot. A NWMSU loss and a Henderson State win and it is a toss up as to who gets into the field, but by guess would be NWMSU over GVSU.

If you are a Laker you need to be a big fan of OBU and C. Missouri come next Saturday.

[Inkblot]

I'm not ready to count Lindenwood out.

[CatFan88]

If I did my math right, OBU and UCM have equal SOS so UCM should stay 2 and OBU 3. Indy should be ahead of Harding based on SOS but barely. Harding's SOS is sinking faster than the Titanic. Lake Erie is 3-7 but 2-7 D2. If both win, it won't be enough for Harding to take over Indy. Henderson St. and NW also have equal SOS, so their placement is right. GVSU and Lindenwood should be outside looking in because they are 2 loss teams.

[Runnin' Cat]

If I did my math right, OBU and UCM have equal SOS so UCM should stay 2 and OBU 3. Indy should be ahead of Harding based on SOS but barely. Harding's SOS is sinking faster than the Titanic. Lake Erie is 3-7 but 2-7 D2. If both win, it won't be enough for Harding to take over Indy. Henderson St. and NW also have equal SOS, so their placement is right. GVSU and Lindenwood should be outside looking in because they are the only 2 loss teams.

Won't all MIAA and GAC teams end up with an SOS of .500?

[CatFan88]

Won't all MIAA and GAC teams end up with an SOS of .500?

Yep. All things being equal, the GAC has 6 teams at .500 or better, the MIAA has 8 teams .500 or better. I would say that difference probably keeps UCM above OBU and that both play 9-1 teams to finish. Even though Harding and NW have equal records, their SOS is different until next week. Harding played a tougher schedule at the front, NW has tougher schedule at the back. Henderson St. played a weaker schedule at front which was keeping them out of the top 7 but finishes with tough schedule on back getting them in the top 7, IMO.

[MilSF]

Yep. All things being equal, the GAC has 6 teams at .500 or better, the MIAA has 8 teams .500 or better. I would say that difference probably keeps UCM above OBU and that both play 9-1 teams to finish. Even though Harding and NW have equal records, their SOS is different until next week. Harding played a tougher schedule at the front, NW has tougher schedule at the back. Henderson St. played a weaker schedule at front which was keeping them out of the top 7 but finishes with tough schedule on back getting them in the top 7, IMO.

entire conference has had... ever.

[bigsig50]

I'm not ready to count Lindenwood out.

I'd love for this to happen,. DU and Saginaw winning helped, but not sure it's enough.

As a LU I'm excited we get to even have the conversation tbh.

[Armo Wood]

If I did my math right, OBU and UCM have equal SOS so UCM should stay 2 and OBU 3. Indy should be ahead of Harding based on SOS but barely. Harding's SOS is sinking faster than the Titanic. Lake Erie is 3-7 but 2-7 D2. If both win, it won't be enough for Harding to take over Indy. Henderson St. and NW also have equal SOS, so their placement is right. GVSU and Lindenwood should be outside looking in because they are 2 loss teams.

You're forgetting win%. Harding will have a better win% than UIndy, though I agree UIndy may have the better SOS. It will probably be a statistical tie in the committee's eyes. In the past when that has happened in SR3, and the teams in question are pretty much tied in all other criteria, they've gone by best win. In this case Harding has beaten RR ranked Henderson, and UIndy has not beaten a RR ranked team.

I do agree that UCM probably stays ahead of OBU.

[Divisiontwo]

[Techster88]

Losses to Midwestern and Davenport killed an otherwise really good season for Lindenwood. 7-2 and a win over Indy probably nor enough

[catbacker07]

NW has had a better playoff record in the past 5 yrs than our entire conference has had... ever.

[chapmaja]

I'm not ready to count Lindenwood out.

I think the loss to Davenport really hurts Lindenwood.

[chapmaja]

If I did my math right, OBU and UCM have equal SOS so UCM should stay 2 and OBU 3. Indy should be ahead of Harding based on SOS but barely. Harding's SOS is sinking faster than the Titanic. Lake Erie is 3-7 but 2-7 D2. If both win, it won't be enough for Harding to take over Indy. Henderson St. and NW also have equal SOS, so their placement is right. GVSU and Lindenwood should be outside looking in because they are 2 loss teams.

If NW and Henderson lose this week, they like GVSU will be two loss teams as well. Right now both NW and Henderson are ahead of GVSU based on record. When you include next weeks games, I don't know if Henderson stays ahead of GVSU if GVSU wins and Henderson loses. Remember GVSU played their undefeated team this week, so they get that SOS boost this week, and finish with a 3 loss WSU team, which is better than the team Henderson played this past weekend. If Henderson wins, they are in. If Henderson loses, GVSU and NW are in ahead of Henderson.

[Redready]

If NW and Henderson lose this week, they like GVSU will be two loss teams as well. Right now both NW and Henderson are ahead of GVSU based on record. When you include next weeks games, I don't know if Henderson stays ahead of GVSU if GVSU wins and Henderson loses. Remember GVSU played their undefeated team this week, so they get that SOS boost this week, and finish with a 3 loss WSU team, which is better than the team Henderson played this past weekend. If Henderson wins, they are in. If Henderson loses, GVSU and NW are in ahead of Henderson.

SAU is who HSU beat last week and they were 7-2 before game and are now 7-3. Not sure that matters anyway. HSU just needs to win.

[Runnin' Cat]

If NW and Henderson lose this week, they like GVSU will be two loss teams as well. Right now both NW and Henderson are ahead of GVSU based on record. When you include next weeks games, I don't know if Henderson stays ahead of GVSU if GVSU wins and Henderson loses. Remember GVSU played their undefeated team this week, so they get that SOS boost this week, and finish with a 3 loss WSU team, which is better than the team Henderson played this past weekend. If Henderson wins, they are in. If Henderson loses, GVSU and NW are in ahead of Henderson.

NW and Henderson will both end up with a .500 SOS