Seeding scenarios thread

[Inkblot]

This is intended as a companion thread to the Bracketology Thread. When I have rankings to work with, I can build a bracket, but I need help from y'all with projecting the rankings for different scenarios. I'm new to following D2, so I don't have much familiarity with the practices of the ranking committees. Here's what I'm starting from for SR1:

Super Region 1

My guess is that 12 teams are in contention for the playoffs: all ten ranked teams, plus Cal and Findlay.

Potential undefeated teams:Potential one-loss MEC and PSAC teams:Potential two-loss MEC and PSAC teams: Shepherd, West Chester, IUP with a loss, both NDC and West Virginia State if WVSU wins

Potential one-loss GMAC teams: Tiffin

If WVSU beats NDC, those two (in that order) might be the highest-ranked of this bunch. Shepherd will stay ahead of West Chester if both win, due to the head-to-head. IUP with a loss would fall past both of those, possibly even past a one-loss Tiffin.

Potential three-loss MEC and PSAC teams: Shepherd with a loss, WVSU with a loss, West Chester with a loss, Urbana, Cal

Potential two-loss GMAC teams: Tiffin with a loss, Ohio Dominican

To be honest, I have no clue why Urbana is ranked #9 this week while Cal is unranked. I do think, though, that those two if they win will be the highest-ranked three-loss teams. Given ODU's current position, they could remain between the two. A two-loss Tiffin probably falls out of the rankings.

The wild card: Findlay

If the Findlay beats Tiffin and ODU loses to Hillsdale, it would not be surprising to see UF crack the top 9 and take the Earned Access spot.

[Inkblot]

Super Region 2

I'm not sure that there's a way for Delta State to get into the playoffs, but I think everyone else in the top 10 plus Miles has a chance.

Potential undefeated teams:Potential one-loss teams: Any of the three above if they lose, Wingate, Virginia State

Wingate would climb past Bowie State with a win and a Bowie loss, but other than that I think Wingate is locked into #4 even with a loss. Virginia State's regular season is over and if they're already behind the two-loss GSC and SAC teams there's no reason to expect that to change; they can probably only rise if one of those two-loss teams takes a third loss.

Potential two-loss teams:Potential three-loss teams:

[Inkblot]

Super Region 3

The top nine are probably the only teams that can make it. Three losses isn't going to do it, and the committee hasn't shown any regard for Truman.

Likely #1: Ferris State

Despite their lack of an 11th game, I don't them being unseated.

Other potential undefeated teams: Central Missouri, Ouachita Baptist

If both win, there's no simple way to differentiate them. If, per Armo Wood, the SR3 committee uses best win as a tiebreaker, that'd belong to the Tigers as long as Harding doesn't stumble.

Potential one-loss teams: Harding, Indianapolis, both Central Missouri and Northwest Missouri State if NWMSU wins, both Ouachita Baptist and Henderson State if HSU wins

If NWMSU and HSU win (and Harding and UIndy take care of business), the playoff qualifiers are very straight-forward. But the seeding is not at all. What does the committee do if there are six one-loss teams, five of which have the exact same SOS? While NWMSU would slot ahead of UCM due to the head-to-head, the three GAC teams would form a transitive circle. The only one of the official criteria in which any difference can be found is road record, in which Ouachita would have the edge due to having lost at home. (Which is a bizarre reason to have an edge, but I'm not in charge of the criteria.) Harding hasn't lost since Week 1, and has been the most dominant of the three in games against the other nine GAC teams, but those aren't part of the criteria.

Indianapolis likely slots in behind 10-1 GAC and MIAA teams due to being only 9-1 (their SOS will be very close to .500 as well).

Potential two-loss teams: Harding with a loss, Indianapolis with a loss, Northwest Missouri State with a loss, Henderson State with a loss, Grand Valley State, Lindenwood, (Truman)

A two-loss Harding would stay ahead of a two-loss Henderson State due to the head-to-head. A two-loss Indianapolis would fall behind a two-loss Lindenwood for the same reason, and in that scenario Earned Access would put the Lions in even if they're outside the top 7. Grand Valley State, with a win, would presumably be the highest-ranked two-loss team and stand to get in if a one-loss MIAA or GAC team loses.

I don't see any three-loss team getting in.

[Bryon Ramos]

Super Region 3

The top nine are probably the only teams that can make it. Three losses isn't going to do it, and the committee hasn't shown any regard for Truman.

Likely #1: Ferris State

Despite their lack of an 11th game, I don't them being unseated.

Other potential undefeated teams: Central Missouri, Ouachita Baptist

If both win, there's no simple way to differentiate them. If, per Armo Wood, the SR3 committee uses best win as a tiebreaker, that'd belong to the Tigers as long as Harding doesn't stumble.

Potential one-loss teams: Harding, Indianapolis, both Central Missouri and Northwest Missouri State if NWMSU wins, both Ouachita Baptist and Henderson State if HSU wins

If NWMSU and HSU win (and Harding and UIndy take care of business), the playoff qualifiers are very straight-forward. But the seeding is not at all. What does the committee do if there are six one-loss teams, five of which have the exact same SOS? While NWMSU would slot ahead of UCM due to the head-to-head, the three GAC teams would form a transitive circle. The only one of the official criteria in which any difference can be found is road record, in which Ouachita would have the edge due to having lost at home. (Which is a bizarre reason to have an edge, but I'm not in charge of the criteria.) Harding hasn't lost since Week 1, and has been the most dominant of the three in games against the other nine GAC teams, but those aren't part of the criteria.

Indianapolis likely slots in behind 10-1 GAC and MIAA teams due to being only 9-1 (their SOS will be very close to .500 as well).

Potential two-loss teams: Harding with a loss, Indianapolis with a loss, Northwest Missouri State with a loss, Henderson State with a loss, Grand Valley State, Lindenwood, (Truman)

A two-loss Harding would stay ahead of a two-loss Henderson State due to the head-to-head. A two-loss Indianapolis would fall behind a two-loss Lindenwood for the same reason, and Earned Access would put the Lions in even if they're outside the top 7. Grand Valley State, with a win, would presumably be the highest-ranked two-loss team and stand to get in if a one-loss MIAA or GAC team loses.

I don't see any three-loss team getting in.

Unfortunately for Truman, 2 of their wins don't count as D2 wins because they were against FCS opponents, which drops their winning percentage.

Regarding Lindenwood and Earned access. It was my understanding that EA only went into effect if the team in question was the highest rated from that conference. With UIndy at 5 (and likely to stay there), Lindenwood would have to land in top 7 to make it in, right?

[Inkblot]

Unfortunately for Truman, 2 of their wins don't count as D2 wins because they were against FCS opponents, which drops their winning percentage.

Regarding Lindenwood and Earned access. It was my understanding that EA only went into effect if the team in question was the highest rated from that conference. With UIndy at 5 (and likely to stay there), Lindenwood would have to land in top 7 to make it in, right?

This is specifically about the unlikely scenario (0% chance per Massey) in which UIndy loses to Lake Erie. Edited to make that clearer.

[Bryon Ramos]

This is specifically about the unlikely scenario (0% chance per Massey) in which UIndy loses to Lake Erie. Edited to make that clearer.

Ahh... gotcha. Thanks. Yeah, UIndy isn't losing to Lake Erie.

[Inkblot]

Super Region 4

This is the region where the committee's logic has been the most transparent. The WP + SOS formula has only been deviated to accommodate head-to-heads (specifically, Sioux Falls's win over Winona State). Based on that, I think just the top nine have a chance.

Potential undefeated teams: Tarleton State, Minnesota State, Colorado Mines

It appears to me that Minnesota State's SOS ought to exceed Tarleton State's this weekend, which probably means the Mavericks get the #1 if they win. Colorado Mines's SOS is well behind.

Potential one-loss teams: Any of the above that lose, CSU Pueblo

Colorado Mines, with a loss, would probably stay ahead of CSU Pueblo due to the head-to-head. Tarleton State or Minnesota State could fall below CSUP with a loss.

Potential two-loss teams:Potential three-loss teams:

[Brandon]

Ouachita would have the edge due to having lost at home. (Which is a bizarre reason to have an edge, but I'm not in charge of the criteria.)

You are smart to make this observation.

[Inkblot]

You are smart to make this observation.

I mean, the same thing happens any time the NCAA tries to emphasize some games over others. Just like the "results vs. teams .500 or better" makes it more advantageous to lose to teams below .500.

[MIAAWeekly]

Super Region 3

The top nine are probably the only teams that can make it. Three losses isn't going to do it, and the committee hasn't shown any regard for Truman.

Likely #1: Ferris State

Despite their lack of an 11th game, I don't them being unseated.

Other potential undefeated teams: Central Missouri, Ouachita Baptist

If both win, there's no simple way to differentiate them. If, per Armo Wood, the SR3 committee uses best win as a tiebreaker, that'd belong to the Tigers as long as Harding doesn't stumble.

Potential one-loss teams: Harding, Indianapolis, both Central Missouri and Northwest Missouri State if NWMSU wins, both Ouachita Baptist and Henderson State if HSU wins

If NWMSU and HSU win (and Harding and UIndy take care of business), the playoff qualifiers are very straight-forward. But the seeding is not at all. What does the committee do if there are six one-loss teams, five of which have the exact same SOS? While NWMSU would slot ahead of UCM due to the head-to-head, the three GAC teams would form a transitive circle. The only one of the official criteria in which any difference can be found is road record, in which Ouachita would have the edge due to having lost at home. (Which is a bizarre reason to have an edge, but I'm not in charge of the criteria.) Harding hasn't lost since Week 1, and has been the most dominant of the three in games against the other nine GAC teams, but those aren't part of the criteria.

Indianapolis likely slots in behind 10-1 GAC and MIAA teams due to being only 9-1 (their SOS will be very close to .500 as well).

Potential two-loss teams: Harding with a loss, Indianapolis with a loss, Northwest Missouri State with a loss, Henderson State with a loss, Grand Valley State, Lindenwood, (Truman)

A two-loss Harding would stay ahead of a two-loss Henderson State due to the head-to-head. A two-loss Indianapolis would fall behind a two-loss Lindenwood for the same reason, and in that scenario Earned Access would put the Lions in even if they're outside the top 7. Grand Valley State, with a win, would presumably be the highest-ranked two-loss team and stand to get in if a one-loss MIAA or GAC team loses.

I don't see any three-loss team getting in.

Are we completely positive that the committee would put 2-loss GVSU in over 2-loss Henderson State? GVSU had to play two non-con games outside of the region (not fair to them AT ALL) and so they would end up with less In-Region wins than the Reddies. If HSU loses to OBU this weekend, both Henderson and GVSU would have two road losses, so that would be a wash... and I know it isn't 'officially' part of the criteria but, Henderson's losses to OBU and Harding probably add up to being better than the GVSU loss to Ashland.

[Inkblot]

Are we completely positive that the committee would put 2-loss GVSU in over 2-loss Henderson State? GVSU had to play two non-con games outside of the region (not fair to them AT ALL) and so they would end up with less In-Region wins than the Reddies. If HSU loses to OBU this weekend, both Henderson and GVSU would have two road losses, so that would be a wash... and I know it isn't 'officially' part of the criteria but, Henderson's losses to OBU and Harding probably add up to being better than the GVSU loss to Ashland.

We aren't sure of much in SR3...

[Armo Wood]

Are we completely positive that the committee would put 2-loss GVSU in over 2-loss Henderson State? GVSU had to play two non-con games outside of the region (not fair to them AT ALL) and so they would end up with less In-Region wins than the Reddies. If HSU loses to OBU this weekend, both Henderson and GVSU would have two road losses, so that would be a wash... and I know it isn't 'officially' part of the criteria but, Henderson's losses to OBU and Harding probably add up to being better than the GVSU loss to Ashland.

The W/L-percentage combined with SOS would favor a 2-loss GV over a 2-loss HSU by a slim margin. However, when the data tends to be real close they have in the past gone to other criteria. As you point out, that looks like a wash too. In the past, the SR3 committee has been known to focus on "best win" before in an effort to create differentiation. Better question to ask would be who is the "best win" for GV? Who is the "best win" for HSU?

Committee doesn't, and never has, focused on "better loss."

[Redwing]

We aren't sure of much in SR3...

No kidding. As an aside, it used to be that H2H only came into play with the team immediately above or below. Not sure how they are using it these days. So a 5 seed wouldn't jump a 3 seed if they played H2H.

Nice work too!

[Devin Albertson]

Are we completely positive that the committee would put 2-loss GVSU in over 2-loss Henderson State? GVSU had to play two non-con games outside of the region (not fair to them AT ALL) and so they would end up with less In-Region wins than the Reddies. If HSU loses to OBU this weekend, both Henderson and GVSU would have two road losses, so that would be a wash... and I know it isn't 'officially' part of the criteria but, Henderson's losses to OBU and Harding probably add up to being better than the GVSU loss to Ashland.

One thing that has been commonplace in SR3 is the committee's liking of a 2-2-2-1 conference split. The committee is more likely to take the second best GLIAC team over the third best GAC team if the other criteria is close. This is mainly because the MIAA and GAC have silo scheduling and it's nearly impossible to judge how strong each conference is. So yes I would guess 9-2 Grand Valley State gets the nod over 9-2 Henderson State.

[Brandon]

I mean, the same thing happens any time the NCAA tries to emphasize some games over others. Just like the "results vs. teams .500 or better" makes it more advantageous to lose to teams below .500.

Yes. You are spoiling my podcast talking points!