Seeding scenarios thread

[Brandon]

The W/L-percentage combined with SOS would favor a 2-loss GV over a 2-loss HSU by a slim margin. However, when the data tends to be real close they have in the past gone to other criteria. As you point out, that looks like a wash too. In the past, the SR3 committee has been known to focus on "best win" before in an effort to create differentiation. Better question to ask would be who is the "best win" for GV? Who is the "best win" for HSU?

Committee doesn't, and never has, focused on "better loss."

I can't find the criteria for "best win" in the handbook.

[Armo Wood]

I can't find the criteria for "best win" in the handbook.

It's not in there. It's been more of an observation.

[Brandon]

It's not in there. It's been more of an observation.

I would hope the committee is not creating criteria that is not in the handbook. If that's the case, the imaginary criteria should be "best team" and we should throw the rest out.

[Runnin' Cat]

I would hope the committee is not creating criteria that is not in the handbook. If that's the case, the imaginary criteria should be "best team" and we should throw the rest out.

You, me and who else on that committee?

[We-Are-Lions]

I would hope the committee is not creating criteria that is not in the handbook. If that's the case, the imaginary criteria should be "best team" and we should throw the rest out.

[Horror Child]

I can't find the criteria for "best win" in the handbook.

Check again. It's right next to "penalize a team for manning up and traveling far to take on another D2 team", "inconsistency to the criteria for playoff consideration", and "IUP always has to jump higher hurdles".

[bigsig50]

Check again. It's right next to "penalize a team for manning up and traveling far to take on another D2 team", "inconsistency to the criteria for playoff consideration", and "IUP always has to jump higher hurdles".

What page?

[Armo Wood]

I would hope the committee is not creating criteria that is not in the handbook. If that's the case, the imaginary criteria should be "best team" and we should throw the rest out.

If the NCAA would provide transparency regarding the RRs process, it would help clear up a lot of this mess.

[ctrabs74]

Unfortunately for Truman, 2 of their wins don't count as D2 wins because they were against FCS opponents, which drops their winning percentage.

Regarding Lindenwood and Earned access. It was my understanding that EA only went into effect if the team in question was the highest rated from that conference. With UIndy at 5 (and likely to stay there), Lindenwood would have to land in top 7 to make it in, right?

Lindenwood wouldn't make it in since UIndy is the top ranked GLVC team in the regional rankings, so Earned Access wouldn't apply to LU. Hence, Lindenwood would have to finish in the top seven to make the field.

[GrifFan]

If the NCAA would provide transparency regarding the RRs process, it would help clear up a lot of this mess.

+1

[NW Normal]

If the NCAA would provide transparency regarding the RRs process, it would help clear up a lot of this mess.

Smoke and mirrors are not transparent?

[Dietz]

Super Region 3

The top nine are probably the only teams that can make it. Three losses isn't going to do it, and the committee hasn't shown any regard for Truman.

Likely #1: Ferris State

Despite their lack of an 11th game, I don't them being unseated.

Other potential undefeated teams: Central Missouri, Ouachita Baptist

If both win, there's no simple way to differentiate them. If, per Armo Wood, the SR3 committee uses best win as a tiebreaker, that'd belong to the Tigers as long as Harding doesn't stumble.

Potential one-loss teams: Harding, Indianapolis, both Central Missouri and Northwest Missouri State if NWMSU wins, both Ouachita Baptist and Henderson State if HSU wins

If NWMSU and HSU win (and Harding and UIndy take care of business), the playoff qualifiers are very straight-forward. But the seeding is not at all. What does the committee do if there are six one-loss teams, five of which have the exact same SOS? While NWMSU would slot ahead of UCM due to the head-to-head, the three GAC teams would form a transitive circle. The only one of the official criteria in which any difference can be found is road record, in which Ouachita would have the edge due to having lost at home. (Which is a bizarre reason to have an edge, but I'm not in charge of the criteria.) Harding hasn't lost since Week 1, and has been the most dominant of the three in games against the other nine GAC teams, but those aren't part of the criteria.

Indianapolis likely slots in behind 10-1 GAC and MIAA teams due to being only 9-1 (their SOS will be very close to .500 as well).

Potential two-loss teams: Harding with a loss, Indianapolis with a loss, Northwest Missouri State with a loss, Henderson State with a loss, Grand Valley State, Lindenwood, (Truman)

A two-loss Harding would stay ahead of a two-loss Henderson State due to the head-to-head. A two-loss Indianapolis would fall behind a two-loss Lindenwood for the same reason, and in that scenario Earned Access would put the Lions in even if they're outside the top 7. Grand Valley State, with a win, would presumably be the highest-ranked two-loss team and stand to get in if a one-loss MIAA or GAC team loses.

I don't see any three-loss team getting in.

Great analysis!! Can't wait to see what happens both Saturday and Sunday for the selection show!

[Gorilla John 92]

Super Region 3

The top nine are probably the only teams that can make it. Three losses isn't going to do it, and the committee hasn't shown any regard for Truman.

Likely #1: Ferris State

Despite their lack of an 11th game, I don't them being unseated.

Other potential undefeated teams: Central Missouri, Ouachita Baptist

If both win, there's no simple way to differentiate them. If, per Armo Wood, the SR3 committee uses best win as a tiebreaker, that'd belong to the Tigers as long as Harding doesn't stumble.

Potential one-loss teams: Harding, Indianapolis, both Central Missouri and Northwest Missouri State if NWMSU wins, both Ouachita Baptist and Henderson State if HSU wins

If NWMSU and HSU win (and Harding and UIndy take care of business), the playoff qualifiers are very straight-forward. But the seeding is not at all. What does the committee do if there are six one-loss teams, five of which have the exact same SOS? While NWMSU would slot ahead of UCM due to the head-to-head, the three GAC teams would form a transitive circle. The only one of the official criteria in which any difference can be found is road record, in which Ouachita would have the edge due to having lost at home. (Which is a bizarre reason to have an edge, but I'm not in charge of the criteria.) Harding hasn't lost since Week 1, and has been the most dominant of the three in games against the other nine GAC teams, but those aren't part of the criteria.

Indianapolis likely slots in behind 10-1 GAC and MIAA teams due to being only 9-1 (their SOS will be very close to .500 as well).

Potential two-loss teams: Harding with a loss, Indianapolis with a loss, Northwest Missouri State with a loss, Henderson State with a loss, Grand Valley State, Lindenwood, (Truman)

A two-loss Harding would stay ahead of a two-loss Henderson State due to the head-to-head. A two-loss Indianapolis would fall behind a two-loss Lindenwood for the same reason, and in that scenario Earned Access would put the Lions in even if they're outside the top 7. Grand Valley State, with a win, would presumably be the highest-ranked two-loss team and stand to get in if a one-loss MIAA or GAC team loses.

I don't see any three-loss team getting in.

What is the probability that a Mule loss today would bump them down to a 5-7 position and then having the committee pushing them to Super region 4 and traveling to Mankato next weekend with Sioux Falls going to the 'Ville? IMO that would truly stink for the Mules faithful.

[Inkblot]

What is the probability that a Mule loss today would bump them down to a 5-7 position and then having the committee pushing them to Super region 4 and traveling to Mankato next weekend with Sioux Falls going to the 'Ville? IMO that would truly stink for the Mules faithful.

It partially depends on how the Battle of the Ravine goes.

[Divisiontwo]