Week 8 Predicted Regional Rankings

[Inkblot]

There are a lot of tough calls this week, and I'm a little nervous about these rankings, since on Monday we'll get to see how wrong I am... but on the other hand, next week I'll have a prior to work from.

SR1

1. Kutztown (7-1)
2. Shepherd (7-1)
3. Bentley (7-0)
4. Notre Dame (7-1)
5. California (7-0)
6. Indiana (5-2)
7. New Haven (6-1)
8. Slippery Rock (7-1)
9. Stonehill (5-2)
10. Shippensburg (6-2)

The biggest question in this region is how to account for large differences in SOS. Cal finally has a good win, but how high should it lift them?

SR2

1. Valdosta State (7-0)
2. Bowie State (7-0)
3. Albany State (7-1)
4. West Georgia (7-1)
5. West Florida (5-1)
6. Wingate (6-1)
7. Mars Hill (5-2)
8. Newberry (6-2)
9. West Alabama (5-2)
10. Fayetteville State (6-1)

The top 6 are pretty straightforward. The #7 spot had me baffled for a while, with five teams clustered close together in the W%+SOS formula. Newberry has the best Performance Indicator of that bunch, but Mars Hill's head-to-head win gives them the spot.

SR3The W%+SOS formula passes the sniff test pretty well in this region, and this list mostly follows that, using Performance Indicators in close cases. I'm curious how the committee handles Grand Valley State's lower number of games played.

SR4When the regional rankings come out on Monday, the first thing I'll do is scroll to SR4 and look for Central Washington. They have played 2 teams with winning records (Midwestern State and Angelo State) and have a transitive circle with those. They've only played 6 D2 games, but that's also the case for Midwestern State. They've played Western Oregon twice and are going to play Simon Fraser for a second time... but Simon Fraser isn't a big SOS hit, with a mere 0-3 D2 record. CWU's only other game remaining is against 1-7 Western New Mexico, so they ought to finish 7-1 in D2 games. With a win over Midwestern State and their only loss being to Angelo State, that should net them a playoff spot... but what's their ceiling?

I have CWU ahead of MSU and ASU, but perhaps the committee will have MSU > ASU > CWU despite ASU's loss to West Texas A&M. The top four are clustered pretty close in W%+SOS, but the number of games played is the main reason I have Augustana and Colorado Mines at the top. Augustana has wins over the #6 and #7 teams, which helps them to the #1 spot; their Performance Indicator is second in the region behind Midwestern State. Bemidji State is now the highest two-loss NSIC team, with wins over the two teams right behind them. Colorado Mesa and Western Colorado are both lacking in SOS.

[Inkblot]

Pairings with these matchups: https://i.imgur.com/IiOnoHE.png

[Bearhof]

Your SR2 list should include LRU and they should be in front of Mars Hill. Obviously Bowie is not a two seed. If LR wins out they should make the playoffs and be a four or five seed.

[Divisiontwo]

Your SR2 list should include LRU and they should be in front of Mars Hill. Obviously Bowie is not a two seed. If LR wins out they should make the playoffs and be a four or five seed.

[Bearhof]

I believe the Massey formula appears to be a better indication of a teams national ranking. The ncaa formula is not accurate and needs an overhaul.

[gr8ness97]

Your SR2 list should include LRU and they should be in front of Mars Hill. Obviously Bowie is not a two seed. If LR wins out they should make the playoffs and be a four or five seed.

I'd love to hear your rationale for how Bowie isn't a 2 seed. The CIAA does have some wins against the SAC (Chowan's win over Mars Hill looms), and BSU won their OOC matchups against a solid New Haven team on the road (6-1) and Saginaw Valley (5-3 in a top tier conference) at home. Not to mention, they have wins against more winning teams building up in the CIAA North (VSU, VUU, Chowan), and is going to be the favorite against a no worst than 3 loss Fayetteville State.

[canadarican]

I believe the Massey formula appears to be a better indication of a teams national ranking. The ncaa formula is not accurate and needs an overhaul.

And massey would tell you that formula only works after the entire season is done.

[Bearhof]

Historically very week conference results against SAC opponents. Massey rating has your best team Bowie rated #58 this week which would be behind LR#24 and four other SAC teams. The GSC has better ratings by at least six teams so as you can honestly see Bowie is probably around the 12 th best team in SR2.

[Bearhof]

Actually canadarican has a better grasp on regional ranking than the ncaa.

[Inkblot]

[boyblue]

Your SR2 list should include LRU and they should be in front of Mars Hill. Obviously Bowie is not a two seed. If LR wins out they should make the playoffs and be a four or five seed.

But you're behind Mars Hill in your own conference standings?

As far as Bowie's ranking, 7-0 is 7-0, win percentage may not mean anything to Massey but it is paramount in any playoff system, and thats in every sport. If you can't accept that then we're not speaking the same language. We do use the statistical approach to rank teams and to limit who gets in, but win percentage is your ticket to the dance.

[boyblue]

Historically very week conference results against SAC opponents.

Seriously? As far as the 2021 playoffs are concerned, history began August 28th, 2021.

Massey rating has your best team Bowie rated #58 this week which would be behind LR#24 and four other SAC teams. The GSC has better ratings by at least six teams so as you can honestly see Bowie is probably around the 12 th best team in SR2.

So let me try it this way. Bowie's 100% win percentage means that if LR plays them, Bowie will have a home game. What Massey predicts pretty accurately is that LR will probably win. And that's ok.

Another way to put it is, would you want a 3 loss GSC team getting into the playoffs over a 1 loss SAC team? Of course not and we all understand and respect that wins are platinum man, it don't matter where you get them as long as it's a D2 team.

Many a year I've seen 2 loss SAC teams that I know we'd curb stomp get in ahead of a 3 loss GSC team but I'm cool with that because again, I accept the fact that it's about wins & losses before anything else.

[bigsig50]

Thanks for putting this together!

[canadarican]

Actually canadarican has a better grasp on regional ranking than the ncaa.

While I appreciate the compliment (I think lol), I think Ink does a great job as well. Inks perspective and how he does his work is neat and very interesting . While I disagree where some teams are ranked personally occasionally, when you look at how he ranks them it does line up with how the ncaa would actually seed them for the most part. As far as the "how the ncaa thinks" mindset.

[Mk63NuclearBomb]

Man I really hope GV doesn't stay at 4. We already played them with a bye beforehand and we barely won!