There are a lot of tough calls this week, and I'm a little nervous about these rankings, since on Monday we'll get to see how wrong I am... but on the other hand, next week I'll have a prior to work from.
SR1
SR2
SR3The W%+SOS formula passes the sniff test pretty well in this region, and this list mostly follows that, using Performance Indicators in close cases. I'm curious how the committee handles Grand Valley State's lower number of games played.
SR4When the regional rankings come out on Monday, the first thing I'll do is scroll to SR4 and look for Central Washington. They have played 2 teams with winning records (Midwestern State and Angelo State) and have a transitive circle with those. They've only played 6 D2 games, but that's also the case for Midwestern State. They've played Western Oregon twice and are going to play Simon Fraser for a second time... but Simon Fraser isn't a big SOS hit, with a mere 0-3 D2 record. CWU's only other game remaining is against 1-7 Western New Mexico, so they ought to finish 7-1 in D2 games. With a win over Midwestern State and their only loss being to Angelo State, that should net them a playoff spot... but what's their ceiling?
I have CWU ahead of MSU and ASU, but perhaps the committee will have MSU > ASU > CWU despite ASU's loss to West Texas A&M. The top four are clustered pretty close in W%+SOS, but the number of games played is the main reason I have Augustana and Colorado Mines at the top. Augustana has wins over the #6 and #7 teams, which helps them to the #1 spot; their Performance Indicator is second in the region behind Midwestern State. Bemidji State is now the highest two-loss NSIC team, with wins over the two teams right behind them. Colorado Mesa and Western Colorado are both lacking in SOS.
SR1
- Kutztown (7-1)
- Shepherd (7-1)
- Bentley (7-0)
- Notre Dame (7-1)
- California (7-0)
- Indiana (5-2)
- New Haven (6-1)
- Slippery Rock (7-1)
- Stonehill (5-2)
- Shippensburg (6-2)
SR2
- Valdosta State (7-0)
- Bowie State (7-0)
- Albany State (7-1)
- West Georgia (7-1)
- West Florida (5-1)
- Wingate (6-1)
- Mars Hill (5-2)
- Newberry (6-2)
- West Alabama (5-2)
- Fayetteville State (6-1)
SR3The W%+SOS formula passes the sniff test pretty well in this region, and this list mostly follows that, using Performance Indicators in close cases. I'm curious how the committee handles Grand Valley State's lower number of games played.
SR4When the regional rankings come out on Monday, the first thing I'll do is scroll to SR4 and look for Central Washington. They have played 2 teams with winning records (Midwestern State and Angelo State) and have a transitive circle with those. They've only played 6 D2 games, but that's also the case for Midwestern State. They've played Western Oregon twice and are going to play Simon Fraser for a second time... but Simon Fraser isn't a big SOS hit, with a mere 0-3 D2 record. CWU's only other game remaining is against 1-7 Western New Mexico, so they ought to finish 7-1 in D2 games. With a win over Midwestern State and their only loss being to Angelo State, that should net them a playoff spot... but what's their ceiling?
I have CWU ahead of MSU and ASU, but perhaps the committee will have MSU > ASU > CWU despite ASU's loss to West Texas A&M. The top four are clustered pretty close in W%+SOS, but the number of games played is the main reason I have Augustana and Colorado Mines at the top. Augustana has wins over the #6 and #7 teams, which helps them to the #1 spot; their Performance Indicator is second in the region behind Midwestern State. Bemidji State is now the highest two-loss NSIC team, with wins over the two teams right behind them. Colorado Mesa and Western Colorado are both lacking in SOS.
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