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Week 9 Predicted Regional Rankings

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  • Week 9 Predicted Regional Rankings

    SR1
    1. Bentley (8-0) [1]
    2. Kutztown (8-1) [2]
    3. Shepherd (8-1) [3]
    4. California (8-0) [4]
    5. Notre Dame (8-1) [5]
    6. New Haven (7-1) [6]
    7. Slippery Rock (8-1) [8]
    8. Shippensburg (7-2) [NR]
    9. Tiffin (6-2) [NR]
    10. Stonehill (6-2) [9]
    It's possible that Cal may jump to the 2 spot; they are actually tied in the W%+SOS formula with Shepherd, while Kutztown is behind both but will definitely stay ahead of Shepherd due to the head-to-head. Shippensburg and Tiffin both picked up decent wins while Stonehill and Charleston played terrible teams; Stonehill and Tiffin are actually tied in W%+SOS, but I expect Tiffin to be ahead due to Stonehill's zero wins over .500+ teams. IUP falls out after their loss to 1-6 Edinboro... which was somehow only the second-worst loss by a ranked team (see SR4).

    SR2Western Colorado graduates above the two-loss teams. Wayne State's loss to 0-8 Upper Iowa drops them out of the top 10; it's very close between Commerce and Northern State for the 10th spot.
    Last edited by Inkblot; 10-31-2021, 03:51 PM.

  • #2
    Matchups: https://i.imgur.com/MJpqXl4.png

    Note that Tiffin would be in by Earned Access, hence why they are marked with a 9 instead of a 7.

    1-1 Bentley
    1-6 New Haven at 1-4 California
    1-9 Tiffin at 1-2 Kutztown
    1-5 Notre Dame at 1-3 Shepherd

    2-1 Valdosta State
    2-7 West Alabama at 2-4 West Florida
    2-6 Newberry at 2-2 Bowie State
    2-5 Mars Hill at 2-3 Albany State

    3-1 Ferris State
    3-6 Henderson State at 3-4 Northwest Missouri State
    3-5 Lindenwood at 3-2 Grand Valley State
    3-7 Ouachita Baptist at 3-3 Harding

    4-1 Augustana
    4-6 Angelo State at 4-4 Midwestern State
    4-5 Western Colorado at 4-2 Colorado Mines
    4-7 Bemidji State at 4-3 Central Washington

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Inkblot View Post
      SR1
      1. Bentley (8-0) [1]
      2. Kutztown (8-1) [2]
      3. Shepherd (8-1) [3]
      4. California (8-0) [4]
      5. Notre Dame (8-1) [5]
      6. New Haven (7-1) [7]
      7. Slippery Rock (8-1) [8]
      8. Shippensburg (7-2) [NR]
      9. Tiffin (6-2) [NR]
      10. Stonehill (6-2) [9]
      It's possible that Cal may jump to the 2 spot; they are actually tied in the W%+SOS formula with Shepherd, while Kutztown is behind both but will definitely stay ahead of Shepherd due to the head-to-head. Shippensburg and Tiffin both picked up decent wins while Stonehill and Charleston played terrible teams; Stonehill and Tiffin are actually tied in W%+SOS, but I expect Tiffin to be ahead due to Stonehill's zero wins over .500+ teams. IUP falls out after their loss to 1-6 Edinboro... which was somehow only the second-worst loss by a ranked team (see SR4).
      1. Bentley (8-0)
      2. California (8-0)
      3. Kutztown (8-1)
      4. Shepherd (8-1)
      5. Notre Dame (8-1)
      6. New Haven (7-1)
      7. Slippery Rock (8-1)
      8. Shippensburg (7-2)
      9. Tiffin (6-2)
      10. Stonehill (6-2)


      Agree on the 2-4 spots being up in the air. Cal's opponents are still bad. Historically preference has gone to an undefeated team. Cal's SOS will improve Saturday and if they win, the following week too.

      Interesting note - Frostburg would be #6 if they were eligible.

      Comment


      • #4
        I agree with not being confident in anything beyond 3 in SR2. There are a lot of head-to-head results that are making SR2 tough to call.

        Newberry beat Lenoir-Rhyne
        Lenoir-Rhyne beat Mars Hill
        Mars Hill beat Newberry
        Lenoir-Rhyne beat Wingate

        West Alabama beat West Georgia
        West Georgia beat West Florida

        Still more head to head coming too. Wingate can play their way back in. They face Newberry and Mars Hill in the next two weeks. West Florida closes with West Alabama and Valdosta. It will be an exciting end of the season.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Inkblot View Post
          Matchups: https://i.imgur.com/MJpqXl4.png

          Note that Tiffin would be in by Earned Access, hence why they are marked with a 9 instead of a 7.

          1-1 Bentley
          1-6 New Haven at 1-4 California
          1-9 Tiffin at 1-2 Kutztown
          1-5 Notre Dame at 1-3 Shepherd

          2-1 Valdosta State
          2-7 West Alabama at 2-4 West Florida
          2-6 Newberry at 2-2 Bowie State
          2-5 Mars Hill at 2-3 Albany State

          3-1 Ferris State
          3-6 Henderson State at 3-4 Northwest Missouri State
          3-5 Lindenwood at 3-2 Grand Valley State
          3-7 Ouachita Baptist at 3-3 Harding

          4-1 Augustana
          4-6 Angelo State at 4-4 Midwestern State
          4-5 Western Colorado at 4-2 Colorado Mines
          4-7 Bemidji State at 4-3 Central Washington
          If the top 4 win out in SR4, is there any chance Lindenwood can slip back into a hosting position from your calculations?
          Cool Story Bro

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Inkblot View Post
            Matchups: https://i.imgur.com/MJpqXl4.png

            Note that Tiffin would be in by Earned Access, hence why they are marked with a 9 instead of a 7.

            1-1 Bentley
            1-6 New Haven at 1-4 California
            1-9 Tiffin at 1-2 Kutztown
            1-5 Notre Dame at 1-3 Shepherd

            2-1 Valdosta State
            2-7 West Alabama at 2-4 West Florida
            2-6 Newberry at 2-2 Bowie State
            2-5 Mars Hill at 2-3 Albany State

            3-1 Ferris State
            3-6 Henderson State at 3-4 Northwest Missouri State
            3-5 Lindenwood at 3-2 Grand Valley State
            3-7 Ouachita Baptist at 3-3 Harding

            4-1 Augustana
            4-6 Angelo State at 4-4 Midwestern State
            4-5 Western Colorado at 4-2 Colorado Mines
            4-7 Bemidji State at 4-3 Central Washington
            SR3 gonna be interesting over time. OBU or Henderson will inevitably be out IMO. No idea how that will all play out with matchups/rematches/travel.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Divisiontwo View Post

              SR3 gonna be interesting over time. OBU or Henderson will inevitably be out IMO. No idea how that will all play out with matchups/rematches/travel.
              I came to the same conclusion.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by bigsig50 View Post

                If the top 4 win out in SR4, is there any chance Lindenwood can slip back into a hosting position from your calculations?
                SOS is gonna be key, and there's a range of where Lindenwood's might end up... whether Lindenwood hosts could depend on what Findlay and Angelo State do.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Inkblot View Post

                  SOS is gonna be key, and there's a range of where Lindenwood's might end up... whether Lindenwood hosts could depend on what Findlay and Angelo State do.
                  Its crazy that margin of victory isn't apart of the seeding. Just seems like when Harding wins big against the best teams and then blows out others, they are pushed off to the side.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Chuck Bitner View Post
                    I agree with not being confident in anything beyond 3 in SR2. There are a lot of head-to-head results that are making SR2 tough to call.

                    Newberry beat Lenoir-Rhyne
                    Lenoir-Rhyne beat Mars Hill
                    Mars Hill beat Newberry
                    Lenoir-Rhyne beat Wingate

                    West Alabama beat West Georgia
                    West Georgia beat West Florida

                    Still more head to head coming too. Wingate can play their way back in. They face Newberry and Mars Hill in the next two weeks. West Florida closes with West Alabama and Valdosta. It will be an exciting end of the season.
                    Obviously SR2 is going to change a lot by the final rankings. Along with West Florida playing West Alabama and Valdosta State, West Georgia has to play Delta State again ( UWG 27 DSU 26 in the first game and we know how dangerous DSU can be) and West Alabama has a rematch with Mississippi College who almost upset them earlier this season (UWA 31 MC 28). As you said , should be an exciting couple of weeks.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Inkblot View Post
                      Matchups: https://i.imgur.com/MJpqXl4.png

                      Note that Tiffin would be in by Earned Access, hence why they are marked with a 9 instead of a 7.

                      1-1 Bentley
                      1-6 New Haven at 1-4 California
                      1-9 Tiffin at 1-2 Kutztown
                      1-5 Notre Dame at 1-3 Shepherd

                      2-1 Valdosta State
                      2-7 West Alabama at 2-4 West Florida
                      2-6 Newberry at 2-2 Bowie State
                      2-5 Mars Hill at 2-3 Albany State

                      3-1 Ferris State
                      3-6 Henderson State at 3-4 Northwest Missouri State
                      3-5 Lindenwood at 3-2 Grand Valley State
                      3-7 Ouachita Baptist at 3-3 Harding

                      4-1 Augustana
                      4-6 Angelo State at 4-4 Midwestern State
                      4-5 Western Colorado at 4-2 Colorado Mines
                      4-7 Bemidji State at 4-3 Central Washington
                      You had SR2 perfect last week even though I wondered why the 2 loss SAC teams were ranked above the 2 loss GSC teams. The SOS will improve as more tough games are played over the next two weeks but what is it that has Newberry above us when they lost to a GSC team that is currently 1-4 in conference play? Is it our their opponent's opponents record? I know you're uncertain but you had it right last time and I'd bet you're right today.

                      If the numbers are really close does the committee have the power to adjust it so we don't have those conference replays we had last week, or are they bound by the numbers? After all they're allowed to adjust seeding once teams are moved to a different SR?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        The UWA-UWF rematch in my bracket is forced by geography... it wouldn't happen with the 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, etc. format.

                        As to how the GSC and SAC teams will be ranked, it's complicated. There's a bunch of teams with similar records and SOS and several head-to-head results among them. I deemed that UWA and UWG were close enough for the head-to-head to matter, but the committee might see differently.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Inkblot View Post
                          The UWA-UWF rematch in my bracket is forced by geography... it wouldn't happen with the 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, etc. format.

                          As to how the GSC and SAC teams will be ranked, it's complicated. There's a bunch of teams with similar records and SOS and several head-to-head results among them. I deemed that UWA and UWG were close enough for the head-to-head to matter, but the committee might see differently.
                          Looking at the brackets, it seems like the one seed is being punished. After a bye week we face the number 4 team in the country while Bowie gets to play a couple unranked teams at home. That's crazy!

                          Comment

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