Alternative SOS model

[Inkblot]

https://www.patreon.com/posts/75101887

Earlier this year, Logan Hansen created a new SOS system for D3 football (and other sports). The main effect of it is to be more reflective of conference strength when non-conference games are limited (of course it can't do anything about silos... no SOS system can).

Applying it to D2, I found that it had little impact in super regions 1, 3, and 4. But in SR2 the changes are extreme: the GSC teams' SOS gets a big boost, while that of the SIAC and especially the CIAA plummets.

[UNALions]

https://www.patreon.com/posts/75101887

Earlier this year, Logan Hansen created a new SOS system for D3 football (and other sports). The main effect of it is to be more reflective of conference strength when non-conference games are limited (of course it can't do anything about silos... no SOS system can).

Applying it to D2, I found that it had little impact in super regions 1, 3, and 4. But in SR2 the changes are extreme: the GSC teams' SOS gets a big boost, while that of the SIAC and especially the CIAA plummets.

Not a shocker. Great work on the article!

This issue needs to be fixed.

[Argonut]

I'll bet that SOS system would have gotten West Georgia into the bracket.

[UNALions]

I'll bet that SOS system would have gotten West Georgia into the bracket.

From the article he linked:

The effect on playoff selections would be nonexistent in three regions, but of course SR2 is different.

1. Benedict... 1.459
2. Delta State... 1.449
3. West Florida... 1.447
4. Newberry... 1.342
5. West Georgia... 1.338
6. Wingate... 1.328
7. Limestone... 1.325
8. Virginia Union... 1.322
9. Mars Hill... 1.280
10. Fayetteville State... 1.270

The effects on GSC and CIAA teams are obvious... but why is Newberry suddenly higher than Wingate? The answer seems to be that Wingate played two CIAA teams and those results are suddenly less valuable, whereas Newberry's road win over a GSC team looks better than it did. (We will, for the purposes of this discussion, ignore rumors about nullification.)

Under the old system West Georgia's W%+SOS is .028 lower than Fayetteville State's; this system turns that deficit into an advantage of .068. Is this more accurate in measuring a team's strength? For fans who were confused about UWG's SOS being lower and then watched FSU lose 51-0 to a team that UWG beat, the answer would be yes.