2024 Playoff Early Schedule Difficulty Values

[Argonut]

This is list of recalculated Early Schedule Difficulty values for the playoffs using the actual 2024 final records of the first three teams on the schedule.

The list is in descending order from most difficult early schedule to easiest using the values calculations I have used for last two years. (You can find these values in the thread titled 2024 Early Schedule Difficulty) The number in parentheses is the teams points per game followed by their record in first three games of 2024. The M denotes a team that Mudstomped at least two of their first three opponents by 20 or more.

My research into this Early Schedule metric found that nearly all (couple of exceptions) the D2 Champions since 2000 had an Early Schedule Difficulty of 13 or less, Mudstomped at least two of their first three opponents and the average points per game of all these champions since 2000 was 40 points or more.

The teams underlined in bold meet all this criteria and you can pretty much write off the 7 teams above 13. It is also interesting to note that all the teams at 11 and below started 3-0 and this section also had 7 of the 10 Mudstompers. There are only 4 teams that started 1-2 and none started 0-3. On the other side of the coin 4 of the 7 teams 14 and above lost an end of regular season game vs. one team out of 21 at 13 and below lost an end of season game.

I also found that teams with higher values win more of the first round games, but this flips the deeper you go into to the playoffs with easier early schedule teams winning more games, including the title game like last year where single digit Harding beat double digit Mines. Based on this metric I would guess that the title game would feature Valdosta vs. either Ferris or Harding.

16- Va. Union (42.6) 1-2
-Central Wash. (31) 2-1

15- Miles (31.2) 1-2

14- Ashland (23.3) 1-2
-Calif. (PA) (27.8) 2-1
-Augustana (27) 2-1 M
-Mankato (31.5) 3-0

13- Wingate (29.2) 2-1
-Ferris St. (41.7) 2-1 M
-Pueblo (41.7) 2-1

12- Slippery Rock (28.1) 3-0
-New Haven (34.1) 2-1
-Charleston (44.5) 3-0 M
-Angelo St. (32) 1-2
Bemidji St. (26.4) 2-1
Pitt. St. (26.1) 2-1

11-West Ala. (31) 3-0 M
L-R (26.4) 3-0
-Indy (41.3) 3-0 M

10- C-N (33.6) 3-0 M
-Ouachita (35.5) 3-0 M

9-Valdosta St. (43.1) 3-0 M
-Central Okla. (47.5) 3-0
Grand Valley (30.4) 3-0

8-Harding (52) 3-0 M
-Kutztown (30.5) 3-0 M
-E. Stroudsburg (34.2) 3-0
Western Colo. (36.3) 3-0

[Argonut]

This post is a comparison between the average stats of a D2 Champion going back to 2000 and the teams in this year’s playoff field that average at least 40 points per game.

The stats compared are Offensive points/ Defensive points/ Total offense/ Total defense/ Penalty yds. / Total turnover margin/ Total sack margin/ Total sacks

The stats are per game with exception of turnovers and sacks which are season totals. The D2 champion profile includes 4-5 playoff games, so it’s likely that the teams below would boost their turnover and sack totals over 3-5 playoff games.

No one in this group is as sack happy as the typical D2 champion but Valdosta, Harding and Pueblo come the closest to the D2 Champion profile in all the categories.

D2 Champion Profile (2000-2023)

41 / 16 / 452 / 288 / 64 / +13 / +28 / 46

Charleston

44 / 17 / 461 / 298 / 82 / +20 / +10 / 20

Central Oklahoma

47 / 29 / 547 / 450 / 54 / +7 / +9 / 26

Ferris State

42 / 11 / 477 / 231 / 89 / +2 / +11 / 21

Harding

52 / 9 / 501 / 180 / 44 / +9 / +26 / 28

Indianapolis

41 / 16 / 460 / 271 / 48 / +12 / +3 / 24

CSU-Pueblo

42 / 20 / 472 / 326 / 86 / +6 / +24 / 36

Valdosta State

43 / 9 / 461 / 245 / 51 / +17 / +23 / 30

Virginia Union

43 / 16 / 490 / 299 / 78 / +9 / +15 / 20

[Argonut]

This post summarizes the data I have collected on the win/loss records of the playoff teams based on their Early Schedule Difficulty values.

The first round through the final game data is from the playoffs from 2016-2023. The separate title game data is from the years 2000-2023.

Higher value numbers means teams with harder early schedules (first three games of season) and lower values means teams with easier schedule compared to their playoff opponent. Same values means the playoff game matched teams with identical values.

Title Game

Lower value team wins 13 of 23
Higher value team wins 7 of 23
Same values teams win 3 of 23

2016-2023 Playoff Rounds

1st Round:
-Lower value team wins 36 games
-Higher value team wins 39 games
-Same value team wins 9 games

2nd Round:
-Lower value team wins 34 games
-Higher value team wins 20 games
-Same value team wins 2 games

Regional Round:
-Lower value team wins 12 games
-Higher value team wins 11 games
- Same value team wins 5 games

Semifinals:
-Lower value team wins 4 games
-Higher value team wins 8 games
-Same value team wins 2 games

Final:
-Lower value team wins 5 games
-Higher value team wins 1 game
- Same value team wins 1 game

Totals of 2016-2023 playoff games
-Lower value teams win 91 games
-Higher value teams win 79 games
-Same value teams win 19 games

[Argonut]

This post looks at the results of the 2024 season for the teams who had a hard start (14 and above). The numbers in parenthesis are the record for first three games followed by the final record and "PO" for playoff participant. Half had winning records with 1 in 5 making the playoffs.

18- Western Oregon (1-2) 6-5
-Lane (1-2) 3-6
-Edinboro (1-2) 3-8

17-Kentucky State (0-3) 5-5

16- Franklin Pierce (0-3) 5-5
-Central State (1-2) 1-8
-Virginia Union (1-2) 8-3 PO
-Central Wash. (2-1) 8-3 PO

15- West Texas A&M (1-2) 5-6
-Savannah St. (1-2) 4-4
-Wayne St. (Mich.) (0-3) 2-9
-Virginia St. (1-2) 7-4
-Washburn (0-3) 3-8
-Edward Waters (1-2) 3-7
-Pembroke (0-3) 6-5
-Mars Hill (1-2) 5-4
-Morehouse (0-3) 1-9

14-Mankato (2-1) 8-3 PO
-Augustana (2-1) 8-3 PO
-Winston-Salem (2-1) 7-3
-Truman St. (0-3) 7-4
-Adams St. (0-3) 1-10
-Missouri So. (0-3) 2-9
-Colo. Mesa (1-2) 7-4
-Calif. (PA) (2-1) 8-2 PO
-Gannon (0-3) 3-7

[Argonut]

First round of playoffs saw no advantage between hard or easy early schedules with hard schedule teams winning 4 games, easy schedule teams winning 4 games and same values teams winning 4 games.

The historical trend favors teams with easier early schedules in the second round and only one game pits teams with same values. There are 5 teams with hard (14 and up) early schedules still left out of a total of 16 teams. Three of the number 1 seeds will face a team with a harder early schedule in round 2.

Miles (15) v. Valdosta (9)
L-R (11) v. Va. Union (16)

Slippery Rock (12) v. Kutztown (8)
Ashland (14) v. Calif. (PA) (14)

Central Okla. (9) v. Ferris St. (13)
Harding (8) v. Grand Valley (9)

Mankato (14) v. Pueblo (13)
Bemidji St. (12) v. Western Colo. (8)

[Argonut]

The harder schedule teams won 5 of the 8 second round games and 3 teams with a 14 or higher early schedule difficulty value make it through to the regional final. The historical trend says the regional games are evenly split between the higher and lower value teams. Of these remaining teams Ferris, Harding and Valdosta are the only ones that match the D2 champion early schedule mudstomping profile.

Slippery Rock (12) at California (PA) (14)

Virginia Union (16) at Valdosta State (9)

Harding (8) at Ferris State (13)

Bemidji State (12) at Minnesota State (14)

[Argonut]

The regional games split 2-2 with both easier and harder early schedule teams winning 2 games.

One team is left with a harder schedule difficulty of 14 or above (Mankato) and two teams are left that match the D2 champion early schedule mudstomping profile (Ferris and Valdosta). They could match up in the final if they win this week and that would guarantee that the historical trend since 2000 would continue.

As far as the historical trend for the semifinals goes, the harder schedule teams win over the easier schedule teams 8 to 4. This flips for the finals with the easier schedule teams winning twice as often going back to 2000. That would favor Valdosta if they make past Mankato this week.

Mankato (14) at Valdosta State (9)

Slippery Rock (12) at Ferris State (13)

[Argonut]

The semifinal wins by Ferris and Valdosta guarantees that the 2024 D2 champion will follow the historical profile that the D2 champion has an early schedule difficulty value of 13 or less, mudstomps at least 2 of their first 3 opponents by 20 or more points and averages 40 points or more a game all season. Once again no team with an early schedule difficulty of 14 or more will win the title.

As for the title game, the team with the lower early schedule difficulty value wins the title twice as often going back to 2000. That favors Valdosta and we shall see if that metric plays out this Saturday.

Ferris State (13) vs. Valdosta State (9)