2025 Playoff Early Schedule Difficulty

[Argonut]

Now that the playoff rankings are out I will follow the Early Schedule Difficulty values for the field here. Once the final field is set I will recalculate the ESD values based on their first three opponents actual 2025 record.

Since 2000 the D2 champion has had an ESD value of 13 and below with two exceptions, the champion has averaged 35 points or more with one exception and the champion has mudstomped at least two of the first three opponents by 20 or more with three exceptions.

The records are the D2 records followed by the (ESD) value, average points per game as of last week’s game and an M for Mudstompers. An ESD of 11-12 is the average value for an early schedule difficulty with numbers above that being harder and numbers below that being an easier early schedule for first three games.

Interestingly, there are at least two teams in every region that meet all this criteria: ESD under 14, +35 pts./gm. avg. and designated as a Mudstomper. The distribution of the schedule difficulty in this field is below. 3/4 of the field have easier to average early schedule difficulty and this distribution is consistently found every year. Harder schedule teams can get in, but they don't go as deep as the easier scheduled teams.

Harder (13+): 11 Teams
Avg. (11-12): 12
Easier(-11): 17


Region 1

Assumption, 6-1 (12) 33 M
Calif., 5-3 (11) 29
Charleston, 5-3 (15) 30
Fayetteville, 5-2 (15) 29
Frostburg, 7-1 (8) 33
IUP, 5-2 (10) 37 M
Johnson Smith, 7-1 (10) 38
Kutztown, 8-0 (8) 43 M
Slippery Rock, 5-2 (11) 36
Va. Union, 7-1 (12) 42 M

Region 2

Albany St., 7-0 (15) 37
Benedict, 7-1 (9) 26
Delta St., 7-1 (11) 37
Edward W., 5-2 (14) 32
Ky. St., 6-1 (12) 31
Newberry, 6-1 (7) 32
Pembroke, 7-2 (12) 32
W. Ala., 5-2 (11) 35
W. Fla., 8-0 (10) 36 M
Wingate, 6-2 (9) 35 M

Region 3

Ashland, 7-1 (14) 30
Augustana, 8-0 (7) 37
Ferris St., 7-0 (12) 51 M
Findlay, 8-0 (10) 27
Duluth, 7-1 (10) 40 M
Mankato, 6-2 (11) 34 M
Northwood, 7-1 (10) 32
Truman St., 5-2 (10) 32
Indy, 6-1 (12) 46
Upper Iowa, 6-1 (15) 30

Region 4

C. Wash., 7-0 (15) 45
Chadron St., 6-1 (14) 30
Pueblo, 7-1 (12) 42
Harding, 8-0 (10) 43 M
NWMo.St., 7-1 (13) 33 M
Pitt. St., 6-2 (17) 29
So. Ark., 6-2 (10) 27
Permian, 6-2 (13) 30 M
W. Colo., 8-0 (9) 42 M
W. Oreg., 5-1 (10) 29 M

[Argonut]

Here is the second week of regional rankings with D2 record, (ESD) value, points/gm. and Mudstompers M designation.

This week there are only 8 teams that had a hard start (14 or higher) to the season. There are also 15 teams that mudstomped in their opening to the season. There are 20 teams that average 35 or more and region 2 looks like it is the lowest scoring region.

Region 1

1. Kutztown, 9-0 (8) 44 M
2. Va. Union, 8-1 (12) 45 M
3. Johnson Sm., 8-1 (10) 36
4. Assumption, 7-1 (12) 33 M
5. IUP, 6-2 (10) 35 M
6. Calif., 6-3 (11) 29
7. Slippery R., 6-2 (11) 36
8. Frostburg St., 7-2 (8) 32
9. Fayetteville St., 5-3 (15) 27
10. Charleston, 6-3 (15) 35

Region 2

1. West Fla., 9-0 (10) 38 M
2. Albany St., 8-0 (15) 35
3. Benedict, 7-1 (9) 28
4. Newberry, 7-1 (7) 31
5. Wingate, 7-2 (9) 35 M
6. Kentucky St., 7-1 (12) 33
7. Delta St., 7-2 (11) 37
8. C-N, 6-2 (8) 26
9. Pembroke, 8-2 (12) 32
10. E & H, 6-3 (13) 33 M

Region 3

1. Ferris St., 8-0 (12) 53 M
2. Findlay, 9-0 (10) 27
3. Indy, 7-1 (12) 46
4. Ashland, 8-1 (14) 29
5. Augustana, 9-0 (7) 36
6. Duluth, 8-1 (10) 40 M
7. Truman St., 6-2 (10) 35
8. Mankato, 7-2 (11) 35 M
9. Upper Iowa, 7-1 (15) 33
10. Northwood, 7-2 (10) 30

Region 4

1. Harding, 9-0 (10) 46 M
2. Central Wash., 8-0 (15) 44
3. NWMo.St., 8-1 (13) 34 M
4. Pueblo, 8-1 (12) 40
5. Pitt. St., 7-2 (17) 29
6. Western Colo., 8-1 (9) 39 M
7. Chadron St., 7-1 (14) 31
8. Western Oreg., 6-1 (10) 29 M
9. Permian, 7-2 (13) 34 M
10. So. Ark., 6-3 (10) 27

[Argonut]

Here is the 11-10 regional rankings with D2 record, (ESD) value, pts. per game and M designation for Mudstompers.

Region 1
1. Kutztown, 10-0 (8) 43 M
2. Va. Union, 9-1 (12) 42 M
3. Johnson Sm., 9-1 (10) 35
4. IUP, 7-2 (10) 36 M
5. Calif., 7-3 (11) 30
6. Frostburg, 8-2 (8) 32
7. Assumption, 7-2 (12) 32 M
8. Fayetteville, 6-3 (15) 28
9. Slippery R., 6-3 (11) 33
10. Charleston, 7-3 (15) 36

Region 2
1. West Fla., 9-0 (10) 38 M
2. Albany, 9-0 (15) 36
3. Newberry, 8-1 (7) 31
4. Benedict, 8-1 (9) 26
5. Wingate, 8-2 (9) 37 M
6. Pembroke, 8-2 (12) 32
7. Ky. St., 8-1 (12) 35
8. Delta St., 7-3 (11) 36
9. E & H, 7-3 (13) 36
10. C-N, 6-3 (8) 25

Region 3
1. Ferris St., 9-0 (12) 53 M
2. Findlay, 10-0 (10) 26
3. Indy, 8-1 (12) 48
4. Ashland, 8-2 (14) 26
5. Duluth, 9-1 (10) 41 M
6. Mankato, 8-2 (11) 36 M
7. Upper Iowa, 8-1 (15) 33
8. Augustana, 9-1 (7) 34
9. Northwood, 8-2 (10) 31
10. Truman St., 7-2 (10) 35

Region 4
1. Harding, 10-0 (10) 47 M
2. C. Wash., 9-0 (15) 47
3. NWMo.St., 9-1 (13) 35 M
4. Pueblo, 9-1 (12) 40
5. Pitt.St., 8-2 (17) 31
6. Chadron St., 8-1 (14) 30
7. W. Oreg., 7-1 (10) 29 M
8. Permian, 8-2 (13) 36 M
9. W. Colo., 8-2 (9) 38 M
10. So. Ark., 7-3 (10) 26

[Argonut]

Here are the playoff matchups with corrected ESD values based on first three opponents 2025 record, points per game and Mudstompers designation.

Historically the teams with harder ESD values win more first round games before this trend flips in the later rounds. I plan to pick the games using the ESD metric and D2 champion statistical profile in a later post to see how accurate this method can perform.

Last year two Mudstompers met in the final, but most Mudstompers were bounced out in the early rounds. There are a total of 13 Mudstompers in this field and 19 teams that average 35 points or more.

There are 5 teams that had a hard start (14 or higher) to the season and historically they are out before the semifinals. There are 16 teams that had an average difficulty start (11-13) and 11 teams that had an easy start to the season (10 and lower).

There are 12 teams in the field that satisfy all three metrics found in the D2 champions: Kutztown, IUP, Va. Union, Wingate, West Fla., Ferris St., Duluth, Mankato, Harding, NW Mo. St., Western Colo. and Permian.

Of these 12 there are 5 that average 40 or more: Kutztown, Va. Union, Ferris St., Duluth and Harding. These 5 would be the favorites according to the three metrics of ESD, points per game and mudstomping.

Region 1

Kutztown (12) 43 M v. Bentley (12) 29
IUP (10) 36 M v. Assumption (12) 32 M

Johnson Sm. (12) 35 v. Frostburg St. (9) 32
Va. Union (12) 42 M v. Calif. (9) 30

Region 2

Albany (16) 36 v. Valdosta St. (11) 27
Wingate (9) 37 M v. Benedict (10) 26

West Fla. (8) 38 M v. N. Greenville (12) 27
Newberry (8) 31 v. Kentucky St. (14) 35

Region 3

Ferris St. (12) 53 M v. Northwood (8) 31
Ashland (15) 26 v. Duluth (12) 41 M

Findlay (10) 26 v. Mankato (13) 36 M
Indy (13) 46 v. Truman St. (13) 35

Region 4

Harding (11) 47 M v. NW Mo. St. (11) 35 M
Pitt. St. (14) 31 v. Chadron St. (13) 30

Central Wash. (15) 47 v. Western Colo. (10) 38 M
Pueblo (11) 40 v. Permian (10) 36 M

[Argonut]

I will try to apply the ESD, mudstomping and D2 Champion statistical profile metric to the playoff field in this post. It may take a day or two before I can cover the entire field. The D2 Champion profile is the average of the D2 champions statistics AFTER the title game. (2000-2023) The turnover and sack margins and total sacks will be higher than the field just entering the playoffs. Take that with a grain of salt and the stats included in this order are offense points/gm., defense points/gm., total offense yards/gm., total defense yards/gm., penalty yards/gm., total turnover margin/season, sack margin/season and total sacks/season. I know there could be other stats included, but I tried to limit it to the important ones that score and limit touchdowns.

The D2 Champion profile averages are as follows: 41 /16 /452 /288 /64 /+13 /+28 /46

From this average profile you can see that D2 champions score a lot, clamp down on defensive points, pile up yards, have average penalty yards and make a lot of turnovers and sacks. Of course, each individual champion may vary on these averages like Ferris State having a negative TO margin in one of their title years. I posted the profile of every D2 champion from 2000-2023 in my 2024 Early Schedule Difficulty thread last year if you want to look at each individual team. Use this champion average as a thumbnail sketch to see how lethal a team may be if it comes close to these averages. During the course of looking at these averages for the first three games and the season I noticed that D2 champions almost always pound at least two of their first three opponents and that is how I came up with the mudstomping metric.

Region 1

Kutztown (12) M 41 /10 /429 /251 /48 / +9 / +16 / 25
Bentley (12) 28 /21 /321 /307 /62 / +8 / +5 / 21

Both these teams had the same starting difficulty in schedules, but Kutztown just did more and continued to do more throughout the season when it came to scoring and defending the end zone. Bentley looks like Kutztown light since they match the Bears in penalty yards, TO and sacks, just not in offensive yards and scoring. Kutztown matches the D2 Champion profile, mudstomps and wins easily.

Indiana (PA) (10) M 35 /20 /380 /266 /66 / -7 / -1 / 33
Assumption (12) M 33 /20 /397 /332 /41 / +4 / +25 / 36

This is one of the two first round games that match up mudstompers with similar ESD values. The offenses put up the same amount of yards and points but with different methods. IUP passes for 330 and runs for less than 50 and this is probably their QB running from sacks. Assumption has a balanced offense and doesn't give up a lot of sacks and gets way more TO than IUP. It will be in low 40's and 30's for the game and a hard, cold ball will probably result in a few more dropped passes, 3 and outs, TO and fewer possessions for IUP. The hangover from the Kutztown loss turns into a cold nightmare for IUP and Assumption gets to go to Kutztown next week for a second beat down this year.

Johnson S. (12) 36 /16 /405 /300 /73 / +5 / +13 / 29
Frostburg St. (9) 32 /19 /398 /302 /80 / +4 / +7 / 20

This game should be called the nerves bowl since it is the first D2 playoff game for both programs. Frostburg had an easier start to the year and the statistical profiles of the teams is very similar. The winner will be the one that gets over their playoff jitters first, settles down and plays their game. Johnson played a playoff game of sorts by mudstomping their conference rival in the CIAA title game and they are also playing at home here. That experience and the comfort of the home field should carry them through for the win here.

Va. Union (12) M 40 /18 /472 /297 /89 / +4 / +21 / 30
California (PA)(9) 30 /23 /336 /344 /54 / +3 / +14 / 29

This game should be called the Jekyll and Hyde bowl since both teams had inexplicable losses over the course of the season. VU stats shout D2 Champion profile and yet they get mudstomped by Johnson Smith last week. The Vulcans stats shout .500 team, yet they managed an 8-3 season with some quality wins. VUU and Curtis Allen run for 300 a game and the Vulcans give up an average of 150 a game on the ground. The Jekyll Panthers right the ship and pound the rock for more than 150 and the win over the Hyde Vulcans.

Region 2

Albany St. (16) 35 /11 /391 /257 /75 / +15/ +17/ 38
Valdosta St. (11) 29 /28 /374 /378 /48 / -3 / -2 / 20

Albany may have had a harder start and higher ESD score, but that was due mainly to playing one FCS team. Their statistical measurables, especially TO and sacks are way higher than slippery fingered Valdosta. Albany scores more, defends better and is playing at home. They have always played Valdosta tough even when Valdosta was the better team. This year the tables have turned and Valdosta's win streak ends.

Wingate (9) M 37 /19 /430 /286 /65 / +3 / +9 / 21
Benedict (10) 25 /16 /311 /317 /72 / +5 / +14/ 39

Two strong defensive teams with Wingate having the only consistent offense and they are playing at home. Both teams had an easy start schedule with Wingate mudstomping its opponents and Benedict squeaking out wins in very low scoring affairs. Defense may travel but Benedict's offense does not and Wingate continues their hot play into the second round.

West Florida (8) M 38 /20 /464 /271 /94 / +2 / +22 / 34
N. Greenville (12) 28 /23 /404 /332 /72 /+12/ -13 / 18

The Argos lead the series 7-0 with a few games being one score games including this year at NG. The non one score games were runaways by the Argos and the Argos score a lot at home where this game will be played. The TO disparity offers NG a chance if the Argos offense gets stuck in neutral for a quarter, but last week's squandered chances against Valdosta will cause the Argos to step up their game and put this one to rest early. NG can throw the ball, but the Argos are relentless sackers and mudstompers and move on to the next round.

Newberry (8) 31 /23 /382 /349 /51 / +10 / +9/ 20
Ky. St. (14) 35 /20 /392 /353 /62 / +11 / +16/ 30

These two teams are nearly identical in their stats with Ky. St. scoring and defending scores a little better and getting more sacks. Ky. St. higher ESD score was due to playing one FCS team and they played them close for a long time in that game. Both have been playing well recently with Ky. St. just scoring more in their most recent games. For this reason I'm taking Ky. State for the lone road win in this region.

Region 3

Ferris St. (12) M 52 /18 /515 /283 /78 / -3 / +14 / 31
Northwood (8) 30 /16 /360 /303 /63 / +1 / +4 / 24

There will be some visiting teams that win in the first round, but it won't be this game unless Ferris fumbles the game away like they have occasionally done in the past. Their stat profile is a D2 Champion profile and they should win easily absent a historic fluke upset. Congrats to Northwood for a great season.

Ashland (15) 27 /14 /339 /245 /60 / -1 / +33 / 44
Duluth (12) M 40 /19 /432 /343 /34 / +8 / +13 / 25

Ashland has a top defense that leads the field in sacks, but surprisingly does not get turnovers and doesn’t score that much relative to the field. This may lead to success against similarly constructed teams like Benedict and Findlay, but not against a high powered offensive team like Duluth whose stats match the D2. Champion profile. Duluth also gets turnovers and will score much more than twice, which is what Ashland needs to hold Duluth to in order to win. Duluth moves on to the next round.

Findlay (10) 26 /11 /342 /237 /73 / +2 / 0 / 25
Mankato (13) M 35 /18 /406 /344 /36 / +14 / +8 / 16

This is the exact same type of matchup as the Ashland-Duluth game with the same end result. Mankato moves on to face Indy in a more interesting second round matchup.

Indianapolis (13) 46 /18 /511 /321 /58 / +7 / -3 / 25
Truman St. (13) 36 /23 /411 /362 /62 / +7 / +6 / 19

Indy has owned Truman for almost a decade in a row (12-1) with the only Truman win in 2016 at home. Indy's stat profile is close to a D2 Champion profile with the exception of the sack margin, meaning they give up more sacks than they make. Truman's only chance is to make some sacks, force some turnovers and convert, but you can say that about any game. They are playing at Indy where Truman has never won, much less with the added pressure of a playoff game. Indy moves on again in the only first round matchup between conference rivals, so kudos to the NCAA selection committee for that accomplishment.

Region 4

Harding (11) M 47 /6 /499 /231 /39 / +13 / +20 / 23
NWMo. (11) M 33 /16 /456 /266 /42 / -5 / +19 / 32

This is the second first round game that matches Mudstompers with similar ESD. Like Ferris, Harding’s stats exceed the D2 Champions profile and the Bearcats stats do not. NW also coughs up the ball which is fatal in a limited possession game. The Cats have the knowledge and schemes to have success against Harding so they have a punchers chance, but the smart money is on Harding to jab the Bearcats to death and move on to the next round.

Pittsburg St. (14) 30 /19 /417 /346 /60 / +8 / +22 / 37
Chadron St. (13) 30 /20 /369 /308 /63 / +2 / +5 / 27

This matchup pits two teams that got off to 0-2 starts due to hard early schedules and both recovered to make the field. They have similar stats with the Gorillas getting more TO and sacks and protecting the QB better. Although both looked good in their conference finals, Pitt. State won their game convincingly and is home here before a large home crowd. It's been a while for Chadron to make the field and it will be even longer for their next playoff win. The Gorillas please the home crowd with a 10th straight win.

Central Wash. (15) 45 /17 /421 /322 /52 / +12 / +23 /33
West. Colo. (10) M 38 /16 /469 /301 /51 / +4 / -5 / 24

Central Wash. is another team whose stats match the D2 Champion profile and they are undefeated against D2 teams. Their high ESD is due to playing ranked FCS Montana and they have won in blowouts and in tight games against good teams. Western Colo. has a good QB but don't protect him well and are not as explosive as the Cats. Western Colo. looks good against weak teams, but struggles and loses to good teams. Central Wash. is an outstanding team that gets lots of TO and is playing at home, which is a good change for them and really bad news for anyone that has to fly to Washington. It will be a long plane ride home for the Coloradans.

CSU Pueblo (11) 39 /19 /453 /310 /70 / +9 / +13 / 29
Permian (10) M 39 /17 /469 /301 /51 / +4 / -5 / 24

This is one of the more evenly matched games in the first round and the stats are nearly identical. Pueblo protects the QB a lot better, gets more TO and has shown the knack for winning tight games multiple times late in the season. If this game were at Permian I might go the other way, but the Thunderwolves will be making a victory howl on Saturday and it could be in OT again- and again?


Summary of Picks

Home wins: 12
Visitor wins: 4

Higher ESD wins: 10
Lower ESD wins: 3
Same ESD wins: 3

First Round Results

My Correct Picks: 9-7
Home team wins: 9
Visitor team wins: 7
Unranked/Lower ranked wins: 8
Mudstompers: 8-5
Higher ESD wins: 6
Lower ESD wins: 7
Same ESD wins: 3

ESD of remaining teams

14 and higher: 3
Avg. 11-13: 6
10 and lower: 7

[Argonut]

Round 2 Matchups

Historically the easier schedule teams win more in second round, but most of the second round matchups are between teams with the same ESD. There are only 3 teams left with a high ESD and two of them are at risk of being bounced out by Ferris and Harding.

Every team left has a positive TO margin and high sack teams are very noticeable in the remaining teams. There are 8 Mudstompers left and 4 play each other in this round, so there will be at least be 2 less after this Saturday. I will update info. on stats and my picks later.

D2 Champion Profile:

41 / 16 / 452 / 288 / 64 / +13 / +28 / 46


Region 1

Assumpt. (12) M 32 /20 /399 /329 /39 / +4/ +26/ 39
Kutztown (12) M 42 / 9 /435 /244 /48 / +9/ +21/ 30

Kutztown matches the D2 champion profile and mudstomped Assumption 51-14 at home in the first game of this season. In that game they passed for 300, ran for 200 and shut down the running game of Assumption. Assumption may have improved over the course of the season, but the beast of the east will host the regional final next Saturday.

California (9) 30 /23 /336 /344 /54 / +3/ +14/ 29
Frostburg (9) 31 /18 /395 /299 /76 / +6/ +10/ 25

Two very similar teams that played each other at Calif. on Nov. 1 and the Vulcans won in a close game where the Cats turned the ball over 3 times. Frostburg returns to Calif. to try again and Calif. doesn’t beat the same team twice in a season because the Cats hang on to the ball this time and outgain the Vulcans like last time.

Region 2

Benedict (10) 25 /17 /310 / 324 /69 / +7 / +11 / 40
Albany St(16) 35 /13 /402 /259 /73 / +16/ +14/ 38

This matchup raises the interesting question of whether a team can beat another 3 times in the same season. Albany matches the D2 champion profile much better than low scoring Benedict and gets way more turnovers that could decide a game. Albany doesn’t need a fluke play to win and hosts the regional final, although I’m pulling for another Benedict miracle so the Argos host Benedict next week.

Newberry (8) 32 /23 /385 /346 /51 / +11/ +9/ 21
W. Fla. (8) M 39 /20 /466 /275 /93 / +3/ +27/ 39

The Argos stats profile is closer to D2 champion profile, they score even more at home and they have been averaging 230 on the ground the last 4 games. Newberry averages 25 points on the road where they typically win by a FG. They also give up big yards on the ground. They have a passing game that could keep them in it, but the Argos are not surprised by the Wolves and pull away in second half controlling the clock and possessions.

Region 3

Ashland (15) 27 /14 /339 /245 /62 / +3/ +38/ 49
Ferris (12) M 53/17 /521 /281 /84 / +10/ +30/ 35

Ferris exceeds the D2 champion profile and mudstomped Northwood by rushing for over 400 and forcing 4 TO while only giving up 2. Ashland also forced 4 TO and ran for 250 mudstomping Duluth, but squeaked by Northwood in a one score game earlier this season. It is possible that their game could beat the Dogs if they force 4 or 5 turnovers, but it’s not likely the way the champs are playing. Ferris hosts the regional final.

Mankato (13) M 35 /17 /403 /335 /34 / +16/ +8/ 18
Indianapolis (13) 47/18 /509/327 /57 / +10/ -3/ 28

Another matchup between similar ESD teams with one a Mudstomper and the other with a D2 champion profile. Indy scores and sacks more and is at home. Indy moves on to play Ferris in a potentially high scoring game.

Region 4

Pittsbg.St. (14) 29 /19 /407 /343 /56 / +11/ +23/ 40
Harding (11) M 46 / 7 /497 /240 /38 / +13/ +23/ 26

Harding exceeds the D2 champion profile and the Gorillas have been gashed on the ground for 180 yards plus by Ft Hays, NWMo. and Ferris this season. Their talent at sacks is irrelevant against a team that rarely passes the ball. Their only hope is a lot of short field TO scores for a early lead, but Harding is stingy with the ball so that is unlikely. The Bison host the regional final.

Permian B. (10) M 39 /18 /469 /303 /53 / +5/ -7/ 26
West. Colo. (10) M 37 /17 /419 /317 /45 / +4/ +14/ 34

Another coin flip game at altitude with serious snow forecast for game time. The team stats are very similar with the exception of sacks. The Mountaineers get more and the Falcons give up more which can be devastating in a close game and especially in a cold weather game the Falcons are not used to playing. Western moves on to try their luck in Searcy.

Second Round Results (Both Rounds)

My Picks: 5-3 (14-10)
Mudstompers: 5-3 (13-8)
Unranked/Lower ranked wins: 3 (11)
Home Wins: 4 (13)
Road Wins: 4 (11)
Harder ESD wins: 1 (7)
Easier ESD wins: 2 (9)
Same ESD wins: 5 (8)

Remaining ESD Teams

14 or higher: 1
11-13: 4
10 or lower: 3

[Argonut]

On to the Regional finals where every game has differing ESD. Only 1 team left with high ESD and all 3 of the unbeatens make it to regional final.

D2 Champion Profile

41 / 16 / 452 / 288 / 64 / +13 / +28 / 46

Region 1

Frostburg (9) 30 /19 /393 /302 /73 / +5 / +10/ 26
Kutztown M (12) 43 /10 /436 /253 /46 / +12/ +25/ 34

While any team could have the ball bounce their way all game long on any day, that probably would still not be enough for Frostburg to beat Kutztown who is a near identical match to the D2 champion profile. The Bears will have to break a sweat to take out the Cats before moving on to the semis.

Region 2

Newberry. (8) 31 /22 /385 /353 /51 / +11/ +7/ 22
Albany St (16) 33 /13 /397 /253 /70 / +14/ /+9/ 39

This could be the closest game this weekend given that the teams don’t score as much and they both get turnovers. Albany gets lots of sacks and will take notes from the West Florida sack schemes that had the Wolves QB channeling Fran Tarkenton. Albany figures it out and travels somewhere cold for a semi.

Region 3

Mankato M (13) 35 /18 /401 /339 /36 / +17/ +9/ 21
Ferris St. M (12) 53 /18 /518 /292 /87 / +11/ +27/ 35

This is the next closest game of the week with two experienced playoff coaches matching wits in the cold that they are both familiar. Ferris matches the D2 champion profile much better than the Mavs, but the Mavs commit fewer penalties and get more turnovers. If Ferris has a game of dropsies the Mavs could steal a win, but Ferris has hung onto the ball so far and hosts a semifinal.

Region 4

Permian M (10) 37 /18 /469 /297 /55 / +5/ -9/ 28
Harding M (11) 45 /8 /494 /239 /35 / +11/ +26/ 29

Permian has the type of offense to match TDs with Harding and to take an early lead, but the Falcons give up the most sacks of the 8 and can they really slow down Harding enough to get the ball to score? They really need to win the coin flip and take the ball first AND SCORE. They aren’t coming back from a halftime deficit like last week and Harding will come after the QB if they know you’re not running the ball. Could be interesting for a while longer, but Harding hosts a semifinal.

Results

My picks: 3-1
Home wins: 3-1
Mudstompers: 3-2
Higher ESD wins: 2
Lower ESD wins: 2

Harder ESD (14+) remaining: 0
Avg. ESD (11-13) remaining: 3
Easier (10 or lower) remaining: 1

[Argonut]

As happens almost every year since 2000, teams with hard (14+) early schedules have been eliminated from the field by the semifinals and only teams with easy to average early schedule difficulty remain.

The semis pit teams with differing ESD values and 3 of the 4 are Mudstompers and match the D2 champion stat profile.

D2 Champions Profile

41 / 16 / 452 / 288 / 64 / +13 / +28 / 46

Semifinal 1

Newberry (8) 31 /22 /379 /355 /51 / +9/ +5/ 25
Ferris (12) M 53 /19 /515 /291 /56 / +5/ +27/ 35

Newberry reminds me of the pass heavy Argo teams of 2017 and 2019, one of which went to Ferris in the semifinal and won in the cold. Ferris fumbled the ball away 5 times in that game and they aren’t doing that this year. Ferris stat profile has exceeded the D2 champion profile all year and keep doing so Saturday and go on to Texas again.

Semifinal 2

Harding (11) M 44 / 9 /487 /248 /35 / +13 / +27/ 30
Kutztwn (12) M 44 /11 /431 /260 /44 / +13/ +29/ 39

The stat profiles of these two are nearly identical and also match the D2 champion profile. Both are Mudstompers with similar early schedule difficulty and it’s tempting to pick the more balanced offense of the home team. This will probably be a closer game for longer than the other semi, but Harding chokes out the Bears in the second half and goes on to set up the matchup we have been waiting for all year.

My picks: 2-0
Mudstompers: 2-1
Home: 1-1
Higher ESD wins: 1-1
Lower ESD wins: 1-1

Harder ESD (14+) remaining: 0
Average ESD (11-13) remaining: 2
Easy ESD (10 and lower remaining: 0

[Argonut]

Title game matches two Mudstompers with average early schedule difficulty and stats that exceed the D2 champion profile. It’s a pickem that the early schedule and season stats don’t favor either team. Historically the team with easier early schedule (Harding) wins more often, but Ferris broke that trend last year and could do the same this year. Should be a great game with good weather forecasted.