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Way Too Early MEC Football Predictions - 2020 Edition

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  • Way Too Early MEC Football Predictions - 2020 Edition

    Here are my way to early football predictions for the MEC:

    1. NDC (10-0) They have been very good for a while...That will continue in 2020.
    2a. UC (9-1 OR 8-2) They seem to be peaking.
    2b. Frostburg (9-1 OR 8-2) They were a very good D3 team that has become a good DII team.
    4a. UNCP (8-2 OR 7-3) UNCP is one of those teams that builds for a few years and then falls back. 2020 is on track to be one of their surge years.
    4b. Fairmont (8-2 OR 7-3) Fairmont is a good team that is pretty consistent. Same for 2020.
    6a. WLU (7-3 to 5-5) GASP!!! WLU is very QB centric and they appear to have a very capable P5 transfer coming in. I think WLU is a dark horse this year...QB could make them better than even 7-3 but my enthusium is tempered by remembering the LG Crow experience!!!
    6b. Glenville (7-3 to 5-5) Year two of the "Kellar Experience." Good coach with a proven track record of 1. Turning programs around quickly and 2. Getting into the playoffs quickly.
    6c. WVS (7-3 to 5-5) Good team...Just not good enough to break through.
    9. WVW (3-7 or less) Not much to see here.
    10. Concord (3-7 or less) ditto.
    11. WU (3-7 or less) ditto ditto.
    12. AB (3-7 or less) They should consider it a successful season if they don't finish last.

    Predictions:

    1. MEC could be in line to receive three playoff selections. If NDC finishes 10-0, clearly they are in...IF UC finishes 9-1, they too should be a shoe in...The bubble team is probably UNCP, IF they finish 8-2 they will be in the discussion for a playoff slot. A lot will come down to how their SOS stacks up against other 8-2 teams in the region.

    2. Davis & Elkins will go undefeated in football.
    Last edited by boatcapt; 06-16-2020, 09:35 AM.

  • #2
    Originally posted by boatcapt View Post
    Here are my way to early football predictions for the MEC:

    1. NDC (10-0) They have been very good for a while...That will continue in 2020.
    2a. UC (9-1 OR 8-2) They seem to be peaking.
    2b. Frostburg (9-1 OR 8-2) They were a very good D3 team that has become a good DII team.
    4a. UNCP (8-2 OR 7-3) UNCP is one of those teams that builds for a few years and then falls back. 2020 is on track to be one of their surge years.
    4b. Fairmont (8-2 OR 7-3) Fairmont is a good team that is pretty consistent. Same for 2020.
    6a. WLU (7-3 to 5-5) GASP!!! WLU is very QB centric and they appear to have a very capable P5 transfer coming in. I think WLU is a dark horse this year...QB could make them better than even 7-3 but my enthusium is tempered by remembering the LG Crow experience!!!
    6b. Glenville (7-3 to 5-5) Year two of the "Kellar Experience." Good coach with a proven track record of 1. Turning programs around quickly and 2. Getting into the playoffs quickly.
    6c. WVS (7-3 to 5-5) Good team...Just not good enough to break through.
    9. WVW (3-7 or less) Not much to see here.
    10. Concord (3-7 or less) ditto.
    11. AB (3-7 or less) They should consider it a successful season if they don't finish last.

    Prediction:

    MEC could be in line to receive three playoff selections. If NDC finishes 10-0, clearly they are in...IF UC finishes 9-1, they too should be a shoe in...The bubble team is probably UNCP, IF they finish 8-2 they will be in the discussion for a playoff slot. A lot will come down to how their .500 SOS stacks up against other 8-2 teams in the region.
    Assuming the NE10 still sucks and the pre-ASHLAND GMAC gets TIFFIN or FINDLAY in, which 2 of SRU, IUP, SHEP, WCU and KUTZ do you think will fall far enough to get 2 more MEC in the PO? I'll give either WCU or, more likely KUTZ, but I don't see both failing to show up. On top of that the CALU '20 schedule is super soft with only SRU and IUP as games they might lose IF they play up to their ability.
    Add to that the selection committee bias as evidenced by the last 5 year's picks, PSAC-16, MEC-7, NE10-6, GMAC-3 and CIAA-3, and my guess is it's unlikely to be more than 2 slots for the MEC.

    Comment


    • #3
      Zero chance the MEC gets 3 in. In most years, PSAC gets 3, NE10 gets 1, MEC gets 1/2 and GMAC gets 1/2. When Ashland gets there, the assumption could be that the GMAC and PSAC could get 2/3 each and the MEC/NE10 continue to be a 1 bid league most likely.

      Comment


      • #4
        Is the ND star RB coming back? There was major, major buzz of him moving to D1. In fact, word was he was getting 'recruited' -- off the record, of course.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by CALUPA69 View Post

          Assuming the NE10 still sucks and the pre-ASHLAND GMAC gets TIFFIN or FINDLAY in, which 2 of SRU, IUP, SHEP, WCU and KUTZ do you think will fall far enough to get 2 more MEC in the PO? I'll give either WCU or, more likely KUTZ, but I don't see both failing to show up. On top of that the CALU '20 schedule is super soft with only SRU and IUP as games they might lose IF they play up to their ability.
          Add to that the selection committee bias as evidenced by the last 5 year's picks, PSAC-16, MEC-7, NE10-6, GMAC-3 and CIAA-3, and my guess is it's unlikely to be more than 2 slots for the MEC.
          WOW...Finally someone from PSAC land admits that the selection committee has bias! PSAC posters typical response on why they get so many playoff selections is that their SOS is higher than other teams with the same W/L. The silo schedule this year in the MEC could upset that giving that third MEC team a better SOS than a PSAC team with the same W/L.

          But as you correctly point out, the committee does have a bias in favor of the PSAC. I wouldn't imagine they would let a little thing like a MEC team having the same or better SOS stand in the way of them getting the playoff selection results they like.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by boatcapt View Post
            WOW...Finally someone from PSAC land admits that the selection committee has bias! PSAC posters typical response on why they get so many playoff selections is that their SOS is higher than other teams with the same W/L. The silo schedule this year in the MEC could upset that giving that third MEC team a better SOS than a PSAC team with the same W/L.

            But as you correctly point out, the committee does have a bias in favor of the PSAC. I wouldn't imagine they would let a little thing like a MEC team having the same or better SOS stand in the way of them getting the playoff selection results they like.
            Just like selection committees in all sports. SEC will always get votes in FB,. ACC in BB and so on. It takes some time to build a reputation that favors a conference and probably longer to lose it. SOS is an apparently objective stat that makes the process appear unbiased but when it comes down to it the committee is human and will rarely go against the favored.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by CALUPA69 View Post

              Just like selection committees in all sports. SEC will always get votes in FB,. ACC in BB and so on. It takes some time to build a reputation that favors a conference and probably longer to lose it. SOS is an apparently objective stat that makes the process appear unbiased but when it comes down to it the committee is human and will rarely go against the favored.
              The NCAA, in their few statements on the selection process, always implies that the selections are based completely on the selection criteria which are applied fairly and without bias to all member instututions. MULTIPLE posters here have claimed to have broken the selection code and discovered the formula that the NCAA uses to select and seed playoff teams. But when these formulas are run, they get about 70% right. Sorry, if your formula is getting 30% wrong, you haven't found the formula!!

              I've been saying for years that the playoff selection and seeding process is clearly biased in favor of certain conferences and the NCAA manipulates the selection criteria to achieve their bias. If W/L record gets them to their desired outcome, then that is what they use...if SOS gets them there, then that becomes the primary criteria...if in-region W/L achieves their goals, that is what they use.

              Any time you have a process that is bias, by definition it is not fair.

              Comment


              • #8
                All of you are missing the biggest point that CalPA69 made: D and E will go undefeated in football. I will go farther and say they are the most dangerous team in the MEC and if they win the D2 championship, I am not sure Elkins, West Virginia could handle the rioting and looting that would happen. Lol.

                Comment


                • #9
                  The MEC/WVIAC has gotten 2 teams in the playoffs twice in the last 25 years or so. All of a sudden they might get 3... very unlikely. Boat is a dreamer though, gotta give him that.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Tdobson View Post
                    All of you are missing the biggest point that CalPA69 made: D and E will go undefeated in football. I will go farther and say they are the most dangerous team in the MEC and if they win the D2 championship, I am not sure Elkins, West Virginia could handle the rioting and looting that would happen. Lol.
                    D&E was adding the last kid picked in gym class to the league.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by boatcapt View Post

                      The NCAA, in their few statements on the selection process, always implies that the selections are based completely on the selection criteria which are applied fairly and without bias to all member instututions. MULTIPLE posters here have claimed to have broken the selection code and discovered the formula that the NCAA uses to select and seed playoff teams. But when these formulas are run, they get about 70% right. Sorry, if your formula is getting 30% wrong, you haven't found the formula!!

                      I've been saying for years that the playoff selection and seeding process is clearly biased in favor of certain conferences and the NCAA manipulates the selection criteria to achieve their bias. If W/L record gets them to their desired outcome, then that is what they use...if SOS gets them there, then that becomes the primary criteria...if in-region W/L achieves their goals, that is what they use.

                      Any time you have a process that is bias, by definition it is not fair.
                      I believe I vary from you in this one regard. I don't think it is any sort of preplanned arrangement to get one or another conference into the PO to the detriment of another conference. D2 is more difficult than D1 because there is very limited interconference play which means that the SOS is skewed based on which conference you play in. A high SOS in the NE10 is in no way the same as a similar SOS in the GLIAC especially this year when we won't have even a minimal amount of interconference play. So when intra-region SOS numbers are close it's going to come down to reputation.
                      Once again in the last 5 years in 30 SR1 games the PSAC won 14, MEC 9, GMAC 2, NE10 4 and CIAA 1. SHEP and NDC were the only MEC participants in those years. With SHEP now in the PSAC the tendency to value victories in that conference becomes all the stronger. FROSTBURG looks like a very real threat to make it this year and with NDC that would account for a realistic two. But as I said the reputation of any other MEC schools versus SRU, IUP, CAL, WCU, KUTZ and SHEP would not, IMO at this time, say three teams.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by CALUPA69 View Post

                        I believe I vary from you in this one regard. I don't think it is any sort of preplanned arrangement to get one or another conference into the PO to the detriment of another conference. D2 is more difficult than D1 because there is very limited interconference play which means that the SOS is skewed based on which conference you play in. A high SOS in the NE10 is in no way the same as a similar SOS in the GLIAC especially this year when we won't have even a minimal amount of interconference play. So when intra-region SOS numbers are close it's going to come down to reputation.
                        Once again in the last 5 years in 30 SR1 games the PSAC won 14, MEC 9, GMAC 2, NE10 4 and CIAA 1. SHEP and NDC were the only MEC participants in those years. With SHEP now in the PSAC the tendency to value victories in that conference becomes all the stronger. FROSTBURG looks like a very real threat to make it this year and with NDC that would account for a realistic two. But as I said the reputation of any other MEC schools versus SRU, IUP, CAL, WCU, KUTZ and SHEP would not, IMO at this time, say three teams.
                        SOS is based on the record of the teams you play and the record of the teams they play. Conference an opponent is from has no bearing. At least its not according to the NCAA.

                        The MEC has been in existence for seven years. In that seven years a MEC team has won the regional championship on four occasions. Starting with Concord in 2014 the MEC has won four of the last six regional titles. Concord has won one title (2014), Shepherd won two (2015 and 16) and NDC one (2018). during that six year period, MEC teams have met PSAC teams in the playoffs on 12 occasions, MEC holds an 8-4 head-to-head edge.
                        Last edited by boatcapt; 06-17-2020, 02:26 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by boatcapt View Post

                          SOS is based on the record of the teams you play and the record of the teams they play. Conference an opponent is from has no bearing. At least its not according to the NCAA.
                          If the conference the team is from has no bearing, Shepherd probably wouldn't have left the MEC...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by boatcapt View Post

                            SOS is based on the record of the teams you play and the record of the teams they play. Conference an opponent is from has no bearing. At least its not according to the NCAA.

                            The MEC has been in existence for seven years. In that seven years a MEC team has won the regional championship on four occasions. Starting with Concord in 2014 the MEC has won four of the last six regional titles. Concord has won one title (2014), Shepherd won two (2015 and 16) and NDC one (2018). In those seven years, MEC teams have met PSAC teams in the playoffs on 12 occasions, MEC holds an 8-4 head-to-head edge.
                            So what you're saying is that the NCAA selection committee doesn't properly respect the MEC. I'd agree with that. You seem to think this process was designed to eliminate bias from the selection of teams. I say that's impossible as far as the committee is concerned.
                            As regards the SOS I know that it's based on who you play and who they play but since most games are in conference, if your conference is not respected then your SOS will have less impact on the process. It is what it is....until it isn't.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by CALUPA69 View Post

                              So what you're saying is that the NCAA selection committee doesn't properly respect the MEC. I'd agree with that. You seem to think this process was designed to eliminate bias from the selection of teams. I say that's impossible as far as the committee is concerned.
                              As regards the SOS I know that it's based on who you play and who they play but since most games are in conference, if your conference is not respected then your SOS will have less impact on the process. It is what it is....until it isn't.
                              In conference, the SOS of all teams is .500. The variable is OOC games, both the ones a team chooses to play AND the ones their opponents chose to play. Conference affiliation is supposed to have no bearing on SOS. At least that's the NCAA's implication.

                              The NCAA gives the illusion that the selection criteria are applied to every team fairly and impartally but clearly they aren't. NCAA also gives the impression that there is some sort of formula that strips bias from the selection and seeding process but seems unable to release that formula to the public.

                              Comment

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