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Massey Ratings SR1 Top 10 After Week 5

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  • Massey Ratings SR1 Top 10 After Week 5

    1. Slippery Rock
    2. Notre Dame
    3. Ashland
    4. Cal PA
    5. Tiffin
    6. Shepherd
    7. Frostburg
    8. Charleston
    9. Kudtstown
    10. Ohio Dominican

  • #2
    Originally posted by boatcapt View Post
    1. Slippery Rock
    2. Notre Dame
    3. Ashland
    4. Cal PA
    5. Tiffin
    6. Shepherd
    7. Frostburg
    8. Charleston
    9. Kudtstown
    10. Ohio Dominican
    Love my VULCANS but no way in any universe that they are close to #4. At best somewhere in the #7-10 range. Unless something unusual happens this team will not beat either IUP or SRU and go down as a 9-2 underperformer.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by CALUPA69 View Post

      Love my VULCANS but no way in any universe that they are close to #4. At best somewhere in the #7-10 range. Unless something unusual happens this team will not beat either IUP or SRU and go down as a 9-2 underperformer.
      Massey is primarily a betting tool that assesses which teams are likely to win in head-to-head meetings. It is a purely objective tool that rates each team against a set group of statistical tools earned this season without regard for personal opinions or performance from past seasons. Cal is the 4th best team in SR1 right now because the numbers earned this season say they are.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by boatcapt View Post

        Massey is primarily a betting tool that assesses which teams are likely to win in head-to-head meetings. It is a purely objective tool that rates each team against a set group of statistical tools earned this season without regard for personal opinions or performance from past seasons. Cal is the 4th best team in SR1 right now because the numbers earned this season say they are.
        Not a gambling man but I do know enough to say that betting a team with a 5-0 record against teams with a combined 7-17 record is risky. Betting against them may be profitable, but any team that gets 43% of their scoring from kicking, special teams and defense against less than stellar opposition is unlikely to prevail against above average competition.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by CALUPA69 View Post

          Not a gambling man but I do know enough to say that betting a team with a 5-0 record against teams with a combined 7-17 record is risky. Betting against them may be profitable, but any team that gets 43% of their scoring from kicking, special teams and defense against less than stellar opposition is unlikely to prevail against above average competition.
          I've used Massey as my primary betting tool in the past. More often than not, his assessments are spot on. People shy away from using such mathmatically based assessments because they sometimes make picks that run counter to the subjective conventional wisdom. I would also say that it's much more fun to "bet your gut" (subjective) and include past season performance as a guage (Team A is going to beat team B because they beat them the past 3 years). Same way with the various subjective rankings that the NCAA uses to include the AFCA, D2Sport, NCAA Regional Rankings and DII NCAA Playoff Selection and seeding. All are based completely or largely on "gut feel."

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by boatcapt View Post

            I've used Massey as my primary betting tool in the past. More often than not, his assessments are spot on. People shy away from using such mathmatically based assessments because they sometimes make picks that run counter to the subjective conventional wisdom. I would also say that it's much more fun to "bet your gut" (subjective) and include past season performance as a guage (Team A is going to beat team B because they beat them the past 3 years). Same way with the various subjective rankings that the NCAA uses to include the AFCA, D2Sport, NCAA Regional Rankings and DII NCAA Playoff Selection and seeding. All are based completely or largely on "gut feel."
            I'm not a bettor but I do enjoy reading Massey, the guy knows his stuff. If I were to bet I'd follow his advice.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by crixus View Post

              I'm not a bettor but I do enjoy reading Massey, the guy knows his stuff. If I were to bet I'd follow his advice.
              I bet a little. It has always amazed me the number of seasoned bettors who publicly proclaim their "belief" that rankings should be a certain way...but then when they bet, they use purely objective, stat/math based services that rank teams a different way!

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by boatcapt View Post

                Massey is primarily a betting tool that assesses which teams are likely to win in head-to-head meetings. It is a purely objective tool that rates each team against a set group of statistical tools earned this season without regard for personal opinions or performance from past seasons. Cal is the 4th best team in SR1 right now because the numbers earned this season say they are.
                How do they predict week 1 then?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by boatcapt View Post

                  I've used Massey as my primary betting tool in the past. More often than not, his assessments are spot on. People shy away from using such mathmatically based assessments because they sometimes make picks that run counter to the subjective conventional wisdom. I would also say that it's much more fun to "bet your gut" (subjective) and include past season performance as a guage (Team A is going to beat team B because they beat them the past 3 years). Same way with the various subjective rankings that the NCAA uses to include the AFCA, D2Sport, NCAA Regional Rankings and DII NCAA Playoff Selection and seeding. All are based completely or largely on "gut feel."
                  NCAA Regional Ranking and DII NCAA Playoff Selection are essentially the same thing, right?

                  If it's completely or largely based on "gut feel",, then why does the NCAA document and publish the criteria as well as the worksheet every week?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Horror Child View Post

                    How do they predict week 1 then?
                    As a math based system, it requires data points to be accurate. Obviously early in a season, there aren't a lot of data points. What Massey does for the first few games of a season (think it's 3) they take the last three games of the previous season. So the Massey ratings before game one of a new season are based on the last three games of the previous season, before game two of the season, Massey ratings are based on the first game of the new season and the last two games of the previous, before the third game, the rating is based on the first two games plus the last from the previous year. After the third game of the season, the ratings are based solely on the current seasons performance.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Horror Child View Post

                      NCAA Regional Ranking and DII NCAA Playoff Selection are essentially the same thing, right?

                      If it's completely or largely based on "gut feel",, then why does the NCAA document and publish the criteria as well as the worksheet every week?
                      Yes and no. Seems like the Regional Rankings are accomplished by the Regional Advisory Committee while the actual playoff selections are accomplished by the Football Committee with INPUT provided by the Regional Advisor Committee.

                      One of the things I note about the listed selection criteria is that there is no calculation on how much to weight each one in relation to the others. Is In Region W/L considered more strongly than SOS...Is Performance Indicator considered more strongly than Division II Results Vs Opponents With a Winning Record? All the NCAA says is that the criteria "will be applied" without any definition of how they will be applied. The way the Selection Criteria section is written, there is apparently no restriction on individual committee members weighting for example In Region W/L as the primary criteria one week then SOS as the primary criteria the next week.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by boatcapt View Post

                        I've used Massey as my primary betting tool in the past. More often than not, his assessments are spot on. People shy away from using such mathmatically based assessments because they sometimes make picks that run counter to the subjective conventional wisdom. I would also say that it's much more fun to "bet your gut" (subjective) and include past season performance as a guage (Team A is going to beat team B because they beat them the past 3 years). Same way with the various subjective rankings that the NCAA uses to include the AFCA, D2Sport, NCAA Regional Rankings and DII NCAA Playoff Selection and seeding. All are based completely or largely on "gut feel."
                        How do you define "spot on"? Just getting the result? Or also the margin?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Horror Child View Post

                          How do you define "spot on"? Just getting the result? Or also the margin?
                          Both. I use them for moneyline, odds and points total bets. That said, they aren't the only tout service I use...I tend to "average" my three primary services. If one has a drasticly different number, I tend to walk away from that bet.

                          Comment

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