SR1 Stacking After Week 8

[boatcapt]

There are two undefeated teams remaining in SR1 That are close to led pipe clinches of a playoff slot:

Cal (PSAC)
Bentley (NE10)

There are five one loss teams that control their own fortunes. There is some interplay here that will nock at least one down to a two loss team (SRU/Shep). Also Newhaven/Bentley is a big match-up as is the presumptive Cal/Kutztown game

New Haven (NE10)
Notre Dame (MEC)
Kutztown (PSAC)
Slippery Rock (PSAC)
Shepherd (PSAC)

Six two loss teams. Almost zero chance of any playing their way in. All would need an unexpected series of losses by at least one undefeated OR one loss team to get in. Worth noting, the winner of the Ohio Dominican/Tiffin game stands to get into the playoffs via Earned Access.

Stonehill (NE10)
Ohio Dominican (GMAC)
Tiffin (GMAC)
Charleston (MEC)
Shippensburg (PSAC)
IUP (PSAC)

[ShepAlum]

The first batch of Regional Rankings are released ....

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/footba...ional-rankings

Two columns rep. the following records ...... SR1 / D-II

SUPER REGION ONE
1	Bentley	7-0	7-0
2	Kutztown	7-1	7-1
3	Shepherd	7-1	7-1
4	Cal U (PA)	7-0	7-0
5	Notre Dame (OH)	7-1	7-1
6	New Haven	6-0	6-1
7	Indiana (PA)	5-2	5-2
8	Slippery Rock	6-1	7-1
9	Stonehill	5-2	5-2
10	Charleston (WV)	5-2	5-2

[ShepAlum]

I haven't compared opponents' records, but at first glance I find it a little interesting with three two-loss in the Top 10, there are two NE-10 schools and not one GMAC. Again, that's just a quick observation without getting into the weeds to determine the specific reasons.

[Horror Child]

I haven't compared opponents' records, but at first glance I find it a little interesting with three two-loss in the Top 10, there are two NE-10 schools and not one GMAC. Again, that's just a quick observation without getting into the weeds to determine the specific reasons.

Well all seven 0- and 1-loss teams are there, so there had to be 2-loss teams on the list.
GMAC teams Tiffin and Ohio Dominican have poor SOS so far, but they play each other, so the winner will improve far enough.
Charleston has a good SOS, but one fewer game/win, so they're a surprise.
Stonehill has the same 5-2 record, but their SOS is 6th in the region.

[ShepAlum]

Well all seven 0- and 1-loss teams are there, so there had to be 2-loss teams on the list.
GMAC teams Tiffin and Ohio Dominican have poor SOS so far, but they play each other, so the winner will improve far enough.
Charleston has a good SOS, but one fewer game/win, so they're a surprise.
Stonehill has the same 5-2 record, but their SOS is 6th in the region.

Unless it's changed, Earned Access is still in play. So all the GMAC needs is a team to get to at least #9 and they'll bump off the #7 seed to have GMAC representation in the bracket.

https://web3.ncaa.org/lsdbi/search/bylawView?id=18698

31.3.5 Earned Access -- Football. The Division II Football Committee shall award earned access to the NCAA Division II Football Championship to Division II football-playing conferences for which at least one member institution finishes no more than two spots lower than the super region bracket size in the final NCAA Division II football regional ranking. To be awarded earned access, the conference shall have a minimum of six active football-playing members. The earned access shall go to the conference's highest-ranked team in the final regional Top 10 poll. (Adopted: 1/12/04, Revised: 10/26/09, 1/11/12, 10/16/18)

[NewHaven Alum]

I haven't compared opponents' records, but at first glance I find it a little interesting with three two-loss in the Top 10, there are two NE-10 schools and not one GMAC. Again, that's just a quick observation without getting into the weeds to determine the specific reasons.

Ummmm, I found only one two-loss NE10 team on the list!

[boatcapt]

The first batch of Regional Rankings are released ....

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/footba...ional-rankings

Two columns rep. the following records ...... SR1 / D-II

SUPER REGION ONE
1	Bentley	7-0	7-0
2	Kutztown	7-1	7-1
3	Shepherd	7-1	7-1
4	Cal U (PA)	7-0	7-0
5	Notre Dame (OH)	7-1	7-1
6	New Haven	6-0	6-1
7	Indiana (PA)	5-2	5-2
8	Slippery Rock	6-1	7-1
9	Stonehill	5-2	5-2
10	Charleston (WV)	5-2	5-2

Interesting that two loss IUP gets the head-to-head bump over one loss SRU mut two loss Charleston does NOT get the same treatment for their victory over one loss Notre Dame.

Current Top 10 v Top 10 games to be played:

Bentley v New Haven
Shepherd v Slippery Rock
Cal v Slippery Rock

Also looming is the Pa State Game that will probably pit Cal against Kutztown.

[Inkblot]

Interesting that two loss IUP gets the head-to-head bump over one loss SRU mut two loss Charleston does NOT get the same treatment for their victory over one loss Notre Dame.

Current Top 10 v Top 10 games to be played:

Bentley v New Haven
Shepherd v Slippery Rock
Cal v Slippery Rock

Also looming is the Pa State Game that will probably pit Cal against Kutztown.

Charleston is not close enough to NDC in the numerical criteria for the head-to-head to matter. Whereas the numbers actually have IUP ahead of SRU even without applying the head-to-head.

The only place in these rankings where a head-to-head altered anything is between Kutztown and Shepherd; based on the numbers, Shepherd would've been ahead.

[Horror Child]

Unless it's changed, Earned Access is still in play. So all the GMAC needs is a team to get to at least #9 and they'll bump off the #7 seed to have GMAC representation in the bracket.

Which is why I said the winner of Tiffin-ODU will improve "far enough".

[Horror Child]

Charleston is not close enough to NDC in the numerical criteria for the head-to-head to matter. Whereas the numbers actually have IUP ahead of SRU even without applying the head-to-head.

The only place in these rankings where a head-to-head altered anything is between Kutztown and Shepherd; based on the numbers, Shepherd would've been ahead.

Exactly. Taking each team's win/loss % + weighted SOS.

IUP - .714 + .621 = 1.335
SRU - .875 + .406 = 1.281

Notre Dame - .875 + .528 = 1.403
Charleston - .714 + .515 = 1.229

Charleston shouldn't be in the top 10.

[boatcapt]

Charleston is not close enough to NDC in the numerical criteria for the head-to-head to matter. Whereas the numbers actually have IUP ahead of SRU even without applying the head-to-head.

The only place in these rankings where a head-to-head altered anything is between Kutztown and Shepherd; based on the numbers, Shepherd would've been ahead.

How close is close enough for head-to-head to apply? Is that written somewhere? You say Shepherd would've been ahead based on the numbers. Is there a formula for that?

[Inkblot]

Exactly. Taking each team's win/loss % + weighted SOS.

IUP - .714 + .621 = 1.335
SRU - .875 + .406 = 1.281

Notre Dame - .875 + .528 = 1.403
Charleston - .714 + .515 = 1.229

Charleston shouldn't be in the top 10.

I think the win over NDC is why Charleston is in the top 10... no one else that low has a comparable win.

[Inkblot]

Which is why I said the winner of Tiffin-ODU will improve "far enough".

If Findlay wins out, beating Tiffin, I think they get in.

[Inkblot]

How close is close enough for head-to-head to apply? Is that written somewhere? You say Shepherd would've been ahead based on the numbers. Is there a formula for that?

This set of SR1 rankings differs from W%+SOS in only two ways: swapping Kutztown and Shepherd, and putting Charleston in at 10th.

[boatcapt]

If Findlay wins out, beating Tiffin, I think they get in.

Three loss team in...BOLD prediction!