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  • Shepherd @ SRU

    We might as well get the discussion rolling with Shepherd going to SRU this weekend.

    These two teams have plenty of similar stats. They both feature explosive offenses with two top caliber quarterbacks. At this point in his career, you have to give the edge to Roland Rivers for his mobility and decision making which has led to significantly less interceptions. In addition, SRU just doesn't turn the ball over much with only 12 turnovers on the year as opposed to the 24 Shepherd comes into the week with. Where Shepherd has the slight edge is offensive line and top running back. Don't get me wrong, SRU has a very good offensive line and Charles Snorweah at running back is also quite good but a little bit underutilized due to the passing game and Rivers escapability.

    Defense is the weaker side of the ball for both teams due mainly to the fact of how dominant their offenses are. SRU overall gives up less yards than Shepherd. Shepherd gets more pressure on opposing quarterbacks and force more turnovers. Once again, Rivers escapability negates some pressure, and he doesn't make many mistakes.

    Special teams kicking game favors Shepherd, but with such a high powered offense SRU is usually kicking extra points versus trying for FG's. Punting and kickoffs also favor Shepherd.

    Big factor this week may be the weather. Saturday's weather looks like high winds may be in play which could hamper the passing game somewhat. This may temper the over bets on points this week.

    As usual, Shepherd will need to minimize the mistakes when going against such a formidable foe. Shepherd will need to have prolonged drives to keep Rivers and Co. off the field as well. If they can do that, history has shown they can hang with SRU.


  • #2
    Originally posted by Monte's Catering Co. View Post
    We might as well get the discussion rolling with Shepherd going to SRU this weekend.

    These two teams have plenty of similar stats. They both feature explosive offenses with two top caliber quarterbacks. At this point in his career, you have to give the edge to Roland Rivers for his mobility and decision making which has led to significantly less interceptions. In addition, SRU just doesn't turn the ball over much with only 12 turnovers on the year as opposed to the 24 Shepherd comes into the week with. Where Shepherd has the slight edge is offensive line and top running back. Don't get me wrong, SRU has a very good offensive line and Charles Snorweah at running back is also quite good but a little bit underutilized due to the passing game and Rivers escapability.

    Defense is the weaker side of the ball for both teams due mainly to the fact of how dominant their offenses are. SRU overall gives up less yards than Shepherd. Shepherd gets more pressure on opposing quarterbacks and force more turnovers. Once again, Rivers escapability negates some pressure, and he doesn't make many mistakes.

    Special teams kicking game favors Shepherd, but with such a high powered offense SRU is usually kicking extra points versus trying for FG's. Punting and kickoffs also favor Shepherd.

    Big factor this week may be the weather. Saturday's weather looks like high winds may be in play which could hamper the passing game somewhat. This may temper the over bets on points this week.

    As usual, Shepherd will need to minimize the mistakes when going against such a formidable foe. Shepherd will need to have prolonged drives to keep Rivers and Co. off the field as well. If they can do that, history has shown they can hang with SRU.
    This has been the secret sauce the whole year for Shepherd. I think it's very cut and dry, if they win the turnover battle, they win the game. If they don't like they didn't against ODU (Lost 4-0) and Kutztown Lost 4-1), then they will lose. Even if they tie the turnover battle like they essentially did for West Chester (5-4) or IUP (1-1), I think they win.

    Comment


    • #3
      The teams have the exact same percentage of converting on third downs!


      Similar to Kutztown game, these teams mirror each other, their offense runs through their QB, even though THE ROCK has run ball better the last 5 games, it is done by committee (includes QB); whereas Glover is the man for the Rams, did not their 2nd string RB fumble the first time he touched it against IUP? The return game definitely favors Shepherd, but that may be neutralized by the wind (at least for 2 quarters). THE ROCK's run d has been porous of late, which is scary; they have missed a lot of tackles, maybe the week off will help.

      Overall Series record 3-2 ROCK; NCAA playoffs 1-1; each has won on their home turf

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by SRU 88 View Post
        The teams have the exact same percentage of converting on third downs!


        Similar to Kutztown game, these teams mirror each other, their offense runs through their QB, even though THE ROCK has run ball better the last 5 games, it is done by committee (includes QB); whereas Glover is the man for the Rams, did not their 2nd string RB fumble the first time he touched it against IUP? The return game definitely favors Shepherd, but that may be neutralized by the wind (at least for 2 quarters). THE ROCK's run d has been porous of late, which is scary; they have missed a lot of tackles, maybe the week off will help.

        Overall Series record 3-2 ROCK; NCAA playoffs 1-1; each has won on their home turf
        Is Rivers more the type of dropping back and running when things break down to make a play or are there a lot of designed QB runs for him in your offense?

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Ram040506 View Post

          Is Rivers more the type of dropping back and running when things break down to make a play or are there a lot of designed QB runs for him in your offense?

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by SRU 88 View Post
            The teams have the exact same percentage of converting on third downs!


            Similar to Kutztown game, these teams mirror each other, their offense runs through their QB, even though THE ROCK has run ball better the last 5 games, it is done by committee (includes QB); whereas Glover is the man for the Rams, did not their 2nd string RB fumble the first time he touched it against IUP? The return game definitely favors Shepherd, but that may be neutralized by the wind (at least for 2 quarters). THE ROCK's run d has been porous of late, which is scary; they have missed a lot of tackles, maybe the week off will help.

            Overall Series record 3-2 ROCK; NCAA playoffs 1-1; each has won on their home turf

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Ram040506 View Post

              Is Rivers more the type of dropping back and running when things break down to make a play or are there a lot of designed QB runs for him in your offense?

              He's deadly when things break down. He's fast -- and bigger than most players on the defense. In the NFL it would get him killed but at D2 where he's bigger, faster and stronger than most on the field, it's a huge part of the offense -- designed or not.

              They have a good mix of everything. The RBs are burner types. Several good WRs. Rivers has a big arm and good wheels. OL is very big. They'll score on anybody. Their D is a different story. The better teams have all put up points on them (IUP - 42, Cal - 28, Kutztown - 35).

              If Shepherd wins it isn't going to be 14-10. Put it that way. Throwing out the games against the PSAC mid- and bottom-pack teams, SRU scored 37 on avg against Cal, IUP and Kutztown. I'd easily peg them to score (minimum) between 28-35 this week. I'd say Shepherd's target is to score at least 35 points. Slow the game down with your RB. Bagent will be able to throw on them. You don't want to get in to a shootout with SRU. They typically always start real fast at home, too, ... gotta survive the blitz in the opening minutes.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Ram040506 View Post

                This has been the secret sauce the whole year for Shepherd. I think it's very cut and dry, if they win the turnover battle, they win the game. If they don't like they didn't against ODU (Lost 4-0) and Kutztown Lost 4-1), then they will lose. Even if they tie the turnover battle like they essentially did for West Chester (5-4) or IUP (1-1), I think they win.
                There have been studies that indicated NFL teams that win the turnover battle win the game 78 percent of the time. It is one of the single most important stats in football. Makes sense when you consider that 3-4 turnovers probably rob a team of at least 20 plays in a game where you're usually only going to get about 70-80 plays.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Ship69 View Post

                  There have been studies that indicated NFL teams that win the turnover battle win the game 78 percent of the time. It is one of the single most important stats in football. Makes sense when you consider that 3-4 turnovers probably rob a team of at least 20 plays in a game where you're usually only going to get about 70-80 plays.
                  Lol yea it is a little bit of "no s*** sherlock" isn't it?

                  Looking back at the Kutztown and ODU games just have me shaking my head because Shepherd had both of them and it felt like we gave them the games with stupid turnovers.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Ram040506 View Post

                    Lol yea it is a little bit of "no s*** sherlock" isn't it?

                    Looking back at the Kutztown and ODU games just have me shaking my head because Shepherd had both of them and it felt like we gave them the games with stupid turnovers.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      He misses a lot of tackles also. Shep's TE is big not, as big as KU's TE, but still big and could be a possible mismatch, ROCK misses 57. ROCK's MLB last week had one tackle, he definitely is not his older brother.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Weather forecast is not great, students on break, first day of antlered deer season. Needless to say I don't expect a big crowd.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by SRU 88 View Post
                          The teams have the exact same percentage of converting on third downs!


                          Similar to Kutztown game, these teams mirror each other, their offense runs through their QB, even though THE ROCK has run ball better the last 5 games, it is done by committee (includes QB); whereas Glover is the man for the Rams, did not their 2nd string RB fumble the first time he touched it against IUP? The return game definitely favors Shepherd, but that may be neutralized by the wind (at least for 2 quarters). THE ROCK's run d has been porous of late, which is scary; they have missed a lot of tackles, maybe the week off will help.

                          Overall Series record 3-2 ROCK; NCAA playoffs 1-1; each has won on their home turf
                          The 2nd stringer Ty Hebron has had some fumbles in big moments, and after that last week I'd honestly be surprised if he gets any carries the rest of the playoffs. Glover needs to be the man, and actually if they need to spell him I'd like to see the Freshman Brown get a carry or 2 as he'll probably be the guy next year. Be good to get a playoff taste. He's the one that took the kickoff back to IUP territory only for Hebron to fumble it on his first snap...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Common Opponents:
                            Opponent Slippery Rock Shepherd
                            Shippensburg WIN 54 - 19 WIN 32 - 30
                            Mercyhurst WIN 45 - 14 WIN 22 - 17
                            Clarion WIN 41 - 6 WIN 40 - 24
                            Kutztown WIN 37 - 35 LOSS 27 - 34
                            Indiana WIN 45 - 42 WIN 31 - 27
                            Seton Hill WIN 55 - 14 WIN 56 - 24
                            Millersville WIN 49 - 0 WIN 34 - 10

                            I don't actually think there's anything to be gleaned here by comparing common opponents except that it's neat they've both played 7 of the same teams. Mainly posted because I was curious and know some people like that sort of thing.

                            I have not followed the Rams much this year, but both teams seem to be battle-tested with long winning streaks and have demonstrated they can hang with great opponents and win it in the end. SRU's end of game drives against California and Kutztown and Shepherd's end of game drive against IUP come to mind. Reading the recap it appears Shepherd did lose to Kutztown at the last minute, but if not for some 4th quarter heroics Kutztown would have beaten the Rock, so I won't hold it against them!

                            I worry that perhaps the bye week may result in SRU starting slower than they usually do. Looks to me like a pretty even matchup - while I think SRU is the slightly better team the Rams are no slouch and I wouldn't be surprised to see them come in and shock the Rock.

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                            • #15
                              Weather update looks like the winds won't be much of an issue, but the wintry mix may play a role.

                              Comment

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