Playoff Race - SR1

[iuphawks]

Fair point, I think Ashland might get the nod for the simple 11th game and in that game beating MEC champ NDC. It would be a toss up between both in that scenario for sure.

Ashland only plays 10 games, their SOS takes a hit next 2 weeks. IUP wins out, they get the 1 seed in my opinion

[EastStroud13]

The top 10 (plus Kutztown) with matchups:

Shepherd - @ESU, State Game (IUP) (or @Mercyhurst)
Ashland - @Lake Erie, vs. KY Wesleyan
IUP - vs. Clarion, State Game (Shepherd) (or vs. Bloomsburg)
Assumption - @ St. A, vs. Post
Slippery Rock - vs. Edinboro, vs. Kutztown (or State Game vs. Shepherd)
Notre Dame - vs. UNC-P, @ A-B
Gannon - @Cal, vs. Ship
New Haven - vs. Franklin Pierce, @SCSU
Bentley - vs. AIC, @Pace
Concord - vs. A-B, @UNC-P
Kutztown - vs. WCU, @Rock

Shepherd, Ashland, IUP, and Assumption are all essentially locks. Assuming Week 10 results go as expected, the winner of the State Game will get the 1 seed, since Ashland has no more upward mobility. The loser could fall as far as 5th or 6th, but is still safe.

NDC is a lock if they avoid an upset against UNCP. They don't have far to move up or down.

Assuming Kutztown gets past WCU, the winner of Rock vs. Kutztown should get in. I think Rock has a good chance at jumping Assumption for the 3 seed if they win. If they lose, it's gonna be dicey... they will need Gannon to lose and maybe the NH/Bentley/Concord crew as well.

If Gannon wins out, they are in. Pace is not good but they will count as a win over .500 if Bentley beats them, so I suspect Bentley has the inside track of the remaining candidates.

Here's what I expect we will see if Rock beats Kutztown:

1. Winner of State Game
2. Ashland
3. Slippery Rock
4. Assumption
5. Loser of State Game
6. Notre Dame
7. Gannon if they win out, otherwise Bentley if they win out, otherwise best remaining of New Haven or Concord. Tiffin lurks if chaos reigns.

If Kutztown beats Rock:

1. Winner of State Game
2. Ashland
3. Assumption
4. Loser of State Game
5. Notre Dame
6. Gannon if they win out, otherwise Kutztown
7. Kutztown if Gannon wins out, otherwise one of Rock/Bentley

The NE-10 and MEC teams are going to be really rooting against Gannon this weekend, and against Kutztown next weekend. That's the pathway to one of those conferences getting two playoff representatives. Otherwise, another year of 4 PSAC teams seems likely. For the record, my prediction is that both Gannon and Kutztown lose, and Bentley gets the 7th seed.

[Iupgh]

Ashland only plays 10 games, their SOS takes a hit next 2 weeks. IUP wins out, they get the 1 seed in my opinion

True dat, monster game on the 12th that’s for sure.

[Iupgh]

The top 10 (plus Kutztown) with matchups:

Shepherd - @ESU, State Game (IUP) (or @Mercyhurst)
Ashland - @Lake Erie, vs. KY Wesleyan
IUP - vs. Clarion, State Game (Shepherd) (or vs. Bloomsburg)
Assumption - @ St. A, vs. Post
Slippery Rock - vs. Edinboro, vs. Kutztown (or State Game vs. Shepherd)
Notre Dame - vs. UNC-P, @ A-B
Gannon - @Cal, vs. Ship
New Haven - vs. Franklin Pierce, @SCSU
Bentley - vs. AIC, @Pace
Concord - vs. A-B, @UNC-P
Kutztown - vs. WCU, @Rock

Shepherd, Ashland, IUP, and Assumption are all essentially locks. Assuming Week 10 results go as expected, the winner of the State Game will get the 1 seed, since Ashland has no more upward mobility. The loser could fall as far as 5th or 6th, but is still safe.

NDC is a lock if they avoid an upset against UNCP. They don't have far to move up or down.

Assuming Kutztown gets past WCU, the winner of Rock vs. Kutztown should get in. I think Rock has a good chance at jumping Assumption for the 3 seed if they win. If they lose, it's gonna be dicey... they will need Gannon to lose and maybe the NH/Bentley/Concord crew as well.

If Gannon wins out, they are in. Pace is not good but they will count as a win over .500 if Bentley beats them, so I suspect Bentley has the inside track of the remaining candidates.

Here's what I expect we will see if Rock beats Kutztown:

1. Winner of State Game
2. Ashland
3. Slippery Rock
4. Assumption
5. Loser of State Game
6. Notre Dame
7. Gannon if they win out, otherwise Bentley if they win out, otherwise best remaining of New Haven or Concord. Tiffin lurks if chaos reigns.

If Kutztown beats Rock:

1. Winner of State Game
2. Ashland
3. Assumption
4. Loser of State Game
5. Notre Dame
6. Gannon if they win out, otherwise Kutztown
7. Kutztown if Gannon wins out, otherwise one of Rock/Bentley

The NE-10 and MEC teams are going to be really rooting against Gannon this weekend, and against Kutztown next weekend. That's the pathway to one of those conferences getting two playoff representatives. Otherwise, another year of 4 PSAC teams seems likely. For the record, my prediction is that both Gannon and Kutztown lose, and Bentley gets the 7th seed.

Solid analysis, one question why would SRU need Gannon to lose. If both have 2 losses SRU lumped them up head to head.

[iuphawks]

True dat, monster game on the 12th that’s for sure.

HUGE ONE!

[EastStroud13]

Solid analysis, one question why would SRU need Gannon to lose. If both have 2 losses SRU lumped them up head to head.

The difference in results against IUP will loom large, I think, since IUP would be ranked higher in the ultimate rankings. This would be especially true if IUP wins the State Game; holding a win over the top-ranked team will be very valuable.

There is an interesting subplot, where Gannon needs Charleston to beat either Wheeling or WV State for their week 1 win to count as a win >.500. If Charleston loses both, I could see a scenario where SRU stays ahead of Gannon if IUP loses the State Game.

[Matt Burglund]

The top 10 (plus Kutztown) with matchups:

Shepherd - @ESU, State Game (IUP) (or @Mercyhurst)
Ashland - @Lake Erie, vs. KY Wesleyan
IUP - vs. Clarion, State Game (Shepherd) (or vs. Bloomsburg)
Assumption - @ St. A, vs. Post
Slippery Rock - vs. Edinboro, vs. Kutztown (or State Game vs. Shepherd)
Notre Dame - vs. UNC-P, @ A-B
Gannon - @Cal, vs. Ship
New Haven - vs. Franklin Pierce, @SCSU
Bentley - vs. AIC, @Pace
Concord - vs. A-B, @UNC-P
Kutztown - vs. WCU, @Rock

Shepherd, Ashland, IUP, and Assumption are all essentially locks. Assuming Week 10 results go as expected, the winner of the State Game will get the 1 seed, since Ashland has no more upward mobility. The loser could fall as far as 5th or 6th, but is still safe.

NDC is a lock if they avoid an upset against UNCP. They don't have far to move up or down.

Assuming Kutztown gets past WCU, the winner of Rock vs. Kutztown should get in. I think Rock has a good chance at jumping Assumption for the 3 seed if they win. If they lose, it's gonna be dicey... they will need Gannon to lose and maybe the NH/Bentley/Concord crew as well.

If Gannon wins out, they are in. Pace is not good but they will count as a win over .500 if Bentley beats them, so I suspect Bentley has the inside track of the remaining candidates.

Here's what I expect we will see if Rock beats Kutztown:

1. Winner of State Game
2. Ashland
3. Slippery Rock
4. Assumption
5. Loser of State Game
6. Notre Dame
7. Gannon if they win out, otherwise Bentley if they win out, otherwise best remaining of New Haven or Concord. Tiffin lurks if chaos reigns.

If Kutztown beats Rock:

1. Winner of State Game
2. Ashland
3. Assumption
4. Loser of State Game
5. Notre Dame
6. Gannon if they win out, otherwise Kutztown
7. Kutztown if Gannon wins out, otherwise one of Rock/Bentley

The NE-10 and MEC teams are going to be really rooting against Gannon this weekend, and against Kutztown next weekend. That's the pathway to one of those conferences getting two playoff representatives. Otherwise, another year of 4 PSAC teams seems likely. For the record, my prediction is that both Gannon and Kutztown lose, and Bentley gets the 7th seed.

Don't forget, too, that the NCAA could (once they pick the seven playoff teams) move some teams around to avoid longer-mileage trips.

[EastStroud13]

True, good point. 5-7 aren't actually seeded. It'll be interesting to see where teams actually get placed. I think SR1 teams moving out of region probably depends on other regions more than it does SR1 since we don't have any real outliers; maybe we get Virginia Union moved into our quadrant.

[iupgroundhog]

The top 10 (plus Kutztown) with matchups:

Shepherd - @ESU, State Game (IUP) (or @Mercyhurst)
Ashland - @Lake Erie, vs. KY Wesleyan
IUP - vs. Clarion, State Game (Shepherd) (or vs. Bloomsburg)
Assumption - @ St. A, vs. Post
Slippery Rock - vs. Edinboro, vs. Kutztown (or State Game vs. Shepherd)
Notre Dame - vs. UNC-P, @ A-B
Gannon - @Cal, vs. Ship
New Haven - vs. Franklin Pierce, @SCSU
Bentley - vs. AIC, @Pace
Concord - vs. A-B, @UNC-P
Kutztown - vs. WCU, @Rock

Shepherd, Ashland, IUP, and Assumption are all essentially locks. Assuming Week 10 results go as expected, the winner of the State Game will get the 1 seed, since Ashland has no more upward mobility. The loser could fall as far as 5th or 6th, but is still safe.

NDC is a lock if they avoid an upset against UNCP. They don't have far to move up or down.

Assuming Kutztown gets past WCU, the winner of Rock vs. Kutztown should get in. I think Rock has a good chance at jumping Assumption for the 3 seed if they win. If they lose, it's gonna be dicey... they will need Gannon to lose and maybe the NH/Bentley/Concord crew as well.

If Gannon wins out, they are in. Pace is not good but they will count as a win over .500 if Bentley beats them, so I suspect Bentley has the inside track of the remaining candidates.

Here's what I expect we will see if Rock beats Kutztown:

1. Winner of State Game
2. Ashland
3. Slippery Rock
4. Assumption
5. Loser of State Game
6. Notre Dame
7. Gannon if they win out, otherwise Bentley if they win out, otherwise best remaining of New Haven or Concord. Tiffin lurks if chaos reigns.

If Kutztown beats Rock:

1. Winner of State Game
2. Ashland
3. Assumption
4. Loser of State Game
5. Notre Dame
6. Gannon if they win out, otherwise Kutztown
7. Kutztown if Gannon wins out, otherwise one of Rock/Bentley

The NE-10 and MEC teams are going to be really rooting against Gannon this weekend, and against Kutztown next weekend. That's the pathway to one of those conferences getting two playoff representatives. Otherwise, another year of 4 PSAC teams seems likely. For the record, my prediction is that both Gannon and Kutztown lose, and Bentley gets the 7th seed.

Fantastic analysis!

In my mind, SRU will not lose to KU.

From an IUP fan perspective, I see no difference at this point in making the PO's as a 2,3,4,5,6, or 7 seed. It's so topsy-turvey this year, there isn't that much of an opponent-preference factor.

That's my (pseudo) analysis. I don't even pretend to understand this stuff.

[Ram040506]

Fantastic analysis!

In my mind, SRU will not lose to KU.

From an IUP fan perspective, I see no difference at this point in making the PO's as a 2,3,4,5,6, or 7 seed. It's so topsy-turvey this year, there isn't that much of an opponent-preference factor.

That's my (pseudo) analysis. I don't even pretend to understand this stuff.

Similar to Shepherd, I don't feel like SRU is as explosive on offense as in year's past. Kutztown's defense is absolutely capable of slowing them down and winning that game with their run game. As much as you think SRU won't lose, I kind of feel the other way about it and think the senior laden team Kutztown has might give them a bit of an edge. Not that anyone cares what we think...

[iupgroundhog]

Similar to Shepherd, I don't feel like SRU is as explosive on offense as in year's past. Kutztown's defense is absolutely capable of slowing them down and winning that game with their run game. As much as you think SRU won't lose, I kind of feel the other way about it and think the senior laden team Kutztown has might give them a bit of an edge. Not that anyone cares what we think...

The good thing is that we're going to find out.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Similar to Shepherd, I don't feel like SRU is as explosive on offense as in year's past. Kutztown's defense is absolutely capable of slowing them down and winning that game with their run game. As much as you think SRU won't lose, I kind of feel the other way about it and think the senior laden team Kutztown has might give them a bit of an edge. Not that anyone cares what we think...

SRU is kind of interesting. They were billed by many on here as being dang-near SEC-worthy prior to the IUP game. Then it seemed they were forgotten about.

That's a really good team. It wouldn't shock me at all if they'd win the region.

[ctrabs74]

Kutztown no loving

When your "best" win is against an underachieving 5-4 Cal team, then that doesn't bode well for your Regional Rankings status.

[ironmaniup]

SRU is kind of interesting. They were billed by many on here as being dang-near SEC-worthy prior to the IUP game. Then it seemed they were forgotten about.

That's a really good team. It wouldn't shock me at all if they'd win the region.

They looked bad in their loss to IUP. Looking back, their horrible pass efficiency killed them. IUP also rushed for 135 - against what was touted as a strong defense. Was it the weather - maybe but IUP passing was great. did they just have a bad game ? Maybe, the IUP defense has had their number the last two years. Would IUP win in a rematch ? 50/50 - could SRU win the region. Yes. The KU game will be interesting.

Its an odd year, someone else said that the top 5 teams have a legit chance to win the region. it might be the top 10, it comes down to injuries, game day coaching, weather, refs, all those, where the players heads are at any given day, great for fans. .

[Ram040506]

They looked bad in their loss to IUP. Looking back, their horrible pass efficiency killed them. IUP also rushed for 135 - against what was touted as a strong defense. Was it the weather - maybe but IUP passing was great. did they just have a bad game ? Maybe, the IUP defense has had their number the last two years. Would IUP win in a rematch ? 50/50 - could SRU win the region. Yes. The KU game will be interesting.

Its an odd year, someone else said that the top 5 teams have a legit chance to win the region. it might be the top 10, it comes down to injuries, game day coaching, weather, refs, all those, where the players heads are at any given day, great for fans. .

Ashland, Shepherd, IUP, Rock I think are the only teams that have shown any type of consistency in both offense and defense that can win 3 straight weekends to win the region. NDC is on the fringe of that, but have been inconsistent and the other teams I just don't think have both phases at a point where they can win 3 straight weekends. The region winner will be one of those 4. FACTS! (Sorry I had to...)

Kutztown's offense, Concord's defense, the NE10 teams i just don't see it. Gannon's defense has been lit up by both IUP and Rock. They all can win 1 game, but I don't think can do it for nearly a month.