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  • #91
    Here's a "fact" ... Last season is the only time SRU has made it to the playoffs the same year they lost to IUP in the regular season (they got beat in the first round).

    All those other deep playoff runs (2019, 2018, 2015, 1998) include a regular-season win vs. IUP.

    Interesting, but has no impact on the future.
    http://www.indianagazette.com
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    • #92
      Originally posted by Ram040506 View Post

      Ashland, Shepherd, IUP, Rock I think are the only teams that have shown any type of consistency in both offense and defense that can win 3 straight weekends to win the region. NDC is on the fringe of that, but have been inconsistent and the other teams I just don't think have both phases at a point where they can win 3 straight weekends. The region winner will be one of those 4. FACTS! (Sorry I had to...)

      Kutztown's offense, Concord's defense, the NE10 teams i just don't see it. Gannon's defense has been lit up by both IUP and Rock. They all can win 1 game, but I don't think can do it for nearly a month.
      Kutztown and assumption are interesting. Both had a couple of close losses. Neither seems to have a great offense. But they say defense wins championships, so you might be surprised.

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      • #93
        Originally posted by ironmaniup View Post

        Kutztown and assumption are interesting. Both had a couple of close losses. Neither seems to have a great offense. But they say defense wins championships, so you might be surprised.
        That defense gets a whole lot nastier, too, when you can't throw the ball because of the cold/wind/rain/snow.

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        • #94
          Originally posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post

          Not sure about Ashland getting the No. 1 seed. If IUP were to beat Shepherd I think the Crimson Hawks would have the better resume than Ashland. IUP's lone loss would be to a regionally ranked opponent. Ashland's loss would be to a non-ranked team. IUP would grab a huge SOS boost.

          IUP's lone loss might be a better loss but their current wins to date are also well below what Ashland has done. IUP has only played 3 teams that are about .500 currently they are 2-1 in those games, there final two games are also against teams that wont reach 500 this year. Ashland has played 5 teams about .500, and have gone 4-1. Ashland will continue to get help from ND too as long as they keep winning. Right now IUP would need more of a boost than a win vs Shepherd to get the top seed.

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          • #95
            Originally posted by unc4life View Post

            IUP's lone loss might be a better loss but their current wins to date are also well below what Ashland has done. IUP has only played 3 teams that are about .500 currently they are 2-1 in those games, there final two games are also against teams that wont reach 500 this year. Ashland has played 5 teams about .500, and have gone 4-1. Ashland will continue to get help from ND too as long as they keep winning. Right now IUP would need more of a boost than a win vs Shepherd to get the top seed.
            You're mistaken on how the PSAC schedule works. IUP wouldn't play their final opponent, Bloomsburg in this case. That would be replaced by Shepherd. I'm not sure if that would be enough to pass Ashland, but it is not as cut and dry as you think. IUP could also end up with 2 wins over teams in the playoffs. It would be a very close call and comes down to which criteria is valued most.

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            • #96
              Originally posted by unc4life View Post

              IUP's lone loss might be a better loss but their current wins to date are also well below what Ashland has done. IUP has only played 3 teams that are about .500 currently they are 2-1 in those games, there final two games are also against teams that wont reach 500 this year. Ashland has played 5 teams about .500, and have gone 4-1. Ashland will continue to get help from ND too as long as they keep winning. Right now IUP would need more of a boost than a win vs Shepherd to get the top seed.
              It would be tight. Remember, so long as IUP beats Clarion, its last regular season game (also known in this case as the State Game) would change to Shepherd (instead of Bloomsburg). That game would be in Indiana.

              That would make IUP 9-1 with wins over perhaps two Top 4 teams (Shep and SRU).

              I can't imagine Shepherd would fall much by losing to the current No. 3 team on the road.

              That could make it (1) IUP, (2) Shepherd (3) Ashland.

              But, as stated, this is all hyperbole at this point. It will work itself out.

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              • #97
                If Shepherd loses the State Game, the trouble will be their lack of wins against other playoff teams. Their best chance would be Kutztown beating Rock, thereby making their win over Kutztown look more impressive by comparison. But if Kutztown loses to Rock, Shepherd could fall below the top 4 just by virtue of not having any top-10 wins.

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                • #98
                  Originally posted by EastStroud13 View Post
                  The top 10 (plus Kutztown) with matchups:

                  Shepherd - @ESU, State Game (IUP) (or @Mercyhurst)
                  Ashland - @Lake Erie, vs. KY Wesleyan
                  IUP - vs. Clarion, State Game (Shepherd) (or vs. Bloomsburg)
                  Assumption - @ St. A, vs. Post
                  Slippery Rock - vs. Edinboro, vs. Kutztown (or State Game vs. Shepherd)
                  Notre Dame - vs. UNC-P, @ A-B
                  Gannon - @Cal, vs. Ship
                  New Haven - vs. Franklin Pierce, @SCSU
                  Bentley - vs. AIC, @Pace
                  Concord - vs. A-B, @UNC-P
                  Kutztown - vs. WCU, @Rock

                  Shepherd, Ashland, IUP, and Assumption are all essentially locks. Assuming Week 10 results go as expected, the winner of the State Game will get the 1 seed, since Ashland has no more upward mobility. The loser could fall as far as 5th or 6th, but is still safe.

                  NDC is a lock if they avoid an upset against UNCP. They don't have far to move up or down.

                  Assuming Kutztown gets past WCU, the winner of Rock vs. Kutztown should get in. I think Rock has a good chance at jumping Assumption for the 3 seed if they win. If they lose, it's gonna be dicey... they will need Gannon to lose and maybe the NH/Bentley/Concord crew as well.

                  If Gannon wins out, they are in. Pace is not good but they will count as a win over .500 if Bentley beats them, so I suspect Bentley has the inside track of the remaining candidates.

                  Here's what I expect we will see if Rock beats Kutztown:
                  1. Winner of State Game
                  2. Ashland
                  3. Slippery Rock
                  4. Assumption
                  5. Loser of State Game
                  6. Notre Dame
                  7. Gannon if they win out, otherwise Bentley if they win out, otherwise best remaining of New Haven or Concord. Tiffin lurks if chaos reigns.
                  If Kutztown beats Rock:
                  1. Winner of State Game
                  2. Ashland
                  3. Assumption
                  4. Loser of State Game
                  5. Notre Dame
                  6. Gannon if they win out, otherwise Kutztown
                  7. Kutztown if Gannon wins out, otherwise one of Rock/Bentley
                  The NE-10 and MEC teams are going to be really rooting against Gannon this weekend, and against Kutztown next weekend. That's the pathway to one of those conferences getting two playoff representatives. Otherwise, another year of 4 PSAC teams seems likely. For the record, my prediction is that both Gannon and Kutztown lose, and Bentley gets the 7th seed.
                  Great analysis....good job!

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                  • #99
                    Originally posted by EastStroud13 View Post
                    If Shepherd loses the State Game, the trouble will be their lack of wins against other playoff teams. Their best chance would be Kutztown beating Rock, thereby making their win over Kutztown look more impressive by comparison. But if Kutztown loses to Rock, Shepherd could fall below the top 4 just by virtue of not having any top-10 wins.
                    I also see Shepherd dropping quite a bit with a loss. A win over these last two games and the top seed is a no-brainer, but a loss makes their resume look less impressive than a few of the teams with 1 loss. Shepherd was in a similar situation in 2010, lost the last game of the season and fell from 1st to 4th. Then, they won the Region. So, we'll see what happens.

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                    • Every week in Pick 'Em, there is usually one game that takes a very interesting route (selection-wise).

                      This week, by far, is the Gannon at California game. The line was set at California +10.5

                      The first 24 hours, the picks were nearly all in favor of Gannon. That all started to change late Monday afternoon / Tuesday.

                      Currently, (14) have taken the Vulcans and (9) have chosen Gannon. Some have even said the wrong team is favored.

                      So, obviously, if this were an actual sports book, the line would have changed -- perhaps several times since its opening on Sunday morning.


                      It's a very interesting game.

                      * Will Gannon be hungover? Was that their 'peak' performance a week ago? Can they win a pressure game on the road in Adamson? It's real hard to be that 'up' two weeks in a row.

                      * Was Gannon's offense that good last week or was IUP's defense that bad? Or, a little of both?

                      * Will California be interested? They beat up a going-through-the-motions Mercyhurst last week. Playing a motivated team with its season on the line is a bit different.

                      * Cal's offense should be able to move the ball all day on Gannon's defense. If needed, could the Vulcans win a shootout?

                      * IUP's defense was kind of custom-made last week for Gannon to exploit. Cal will bring much more pressure and many different looks.

                      * Will California stay engaged if Gannon starts hot ... or, sulk and pack it in (it happens this time of year)

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                      • Originally posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post

                        SRU is kind of interesting. They were billed by many on here as being dang-near SEC-worthy prior to the IUP game. Then it seemed they were forgotten about.

                        That's a really good team. It wouldn't shock me at all if they'd win the region.
                        I tell u what SRU does do, when they lose a regular season game they comeback with a vengeance. Did it 2 years in a row after IUP loss.

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                        • Originally posted by Ram Tough View Post

                          I also see Shepherd dropping quite a bit with a loss. A win over these last two games and the top seed is a no-brainer, but a loss makes their resume look less impressive than a few of the teams with 1 loss. Shepherd was in a similar situation in 2010, lost the last game of the season and fell from 1st to 4th. Then, they won the Region. So, we'll see what happens.
                          No way Shepherd drops below the 3 line if it loses conference championship on the road. If that occurs SU 2/ Ashland 3. Now if IUP loses the state game there could be a real drop I say the 6 line.

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                          • Originally posted by Iupgh View Post
                            I tell u what SRU does do, when they lose a regular season game they comeback with a vengeance. Did it 2 years in a row after IUP loss.
                            Old saying is you don't become a good team until you lose one.

                            IUP may look back and see last week as a blessing.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
                              Every week in Pick 'Em, there is usually one game that takes a very interesting route (selection-wise).

                              This week, by far, is the Gannon at California game. The line was set at California +10.5

                              The first 24 hours, the picks were nearly all in favor of Gannon. That all started to change late Monday afternoon / Tuesday.

                              Currently, (14) have taken the Vulcans and (9) have chosen Gannon. Some have even said the wrong team is favored.

                              So, obviously, if this were an actual sports book, the line would have changed -- perhaps several times since its opening on Sunday morning.


                              It's a very interesting game.

                              * Will Gannon be hungover? Was that their 'peak' performance a week ago? Can they win a pressure game on the road in Adamson? It's real hard to be that 'up' two weeks in a row.

                              * Was Gannon's offense that good last week or was IUP's defense that bad? Or, a little of both?

                              * Will California be interested? They beat up a going-through-the-motions Mercyhurst last week. Playing a motivated team with its season on the line is a bit different.

                              * Cal's offense should be able to move the ball all day on Gannon's defense. If needed, could the Vulcans win a shootout?

                              * IUP's defense was kind of custom-made last week for Gannon to exploit. Cal will bring much more pressure and many different looks.

                              * Will California stay engaged if Gannon starts hot ... or, sulk and pack it in (it happens this time of year)
                              I would say Cal would be ready at home, last hurrah in the West for several seniors. GU will have a hard time matching that fever they had against IUP. SRU has been only real thorn in Cal the past 5 years.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Iupgh View Post

                                I would say Cal would be ready at home, last hurrah in the West for several seniors. GU will have a hard time matching that fever they had against IUP. SRU has been only real thorn in Cal the past 5 years.
                                Yep, just like IUP was ready last weekend and the last week of Lenny's career.

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