West Florida @ Ferris State

[Uwfalum98]

UWF football: Argos draw top-seeded Ferris State in Final Four matchup

[Rational Observer]

I have not seen Ferris play at all this year. I presume they are running the same offense as last year. I don't know whether or not they have found any defense. It will probably be a high scoring game.

[Mk63NuclearBomb]

I have not seen Ferris play at all this year. I presume they are running the same offense as last year. I don't know whether or not they have found any defense. It will probably be a high scoring game.

You should check out the box scores from Ferris's playoff games

[Argonut]

Argos travel to the snowy north to take on another team of Bulldogs for a spot in the title game. This should be another close, challenging game for the Argos against another great team like the Blazers and Lenior-Rhyne and the Argos will have to play their best to come out with a win. My initial impressions of the game are as follows:

1. Weather/field-

The field is turf and there was already snow on the ground in the regional final. The weather is forecast to be a stable mid-30's with light winds and light snow. The conditions should not impact the Argo offense, but the Ferris team is mostly players from Michigan who should have more experience with cold weather games than the Argos that are made up with Florida players who probably have never played in snow. Slight advantage to Ferris.

2. Coaches-

Both coaches are experienced, successful playoff coaches who have won regional and semi-final games in the cold and have recently lost in national title game. This will be first semi-final at Ferris home field, so it will be new experience for both teams and coaches. No real advantage to either team.

3. Roster-

As mentioned above, most of Ferris' players are from Michigan and most of Argos are from Florida. Coach for Ferris stated after regional final that every player group have been adversely affected by injuries except LB, but replacements have filled in to keep them going without losing a step. Ferris entire starting D line out for regional final and Argos are healthier with their starting groups and probably have slight edge here depending on who starts for Ferris.

4. QB/Passing Game-

Ferris Harlan Hill QB Campbell out with injury and Bulldogs have been alternating QB duties between two other QB who have played well and thrown same amount of low picks total (9) as Argo QB. Argo QB has thrown for more yards and TDs and has more game experience at this point in season. Ferris receiver corps catch fewer passes overall than Argos corps, but a higher percentage of deep balls off play action (18-14 yds./per completion) from their excellent run game. Argos throw more to more receivers at all distance ranges and they score more TDs. (32-17) Advantage to Argos.

5. Run Game-

Ferris clearly better and more productive at run offense and defense and Argos will have to optimize their run game on both sides if they are going to have a chance to win the game. Big advantage to Ferris.

6. Kicking/Return/Penalties-

Argos flagged for 30 yards less per game and punt and return kicks better, but Ferris has better FG kicker. Weather and field should not affect kicking game. Advantage to Argos.

7. Sacks/takeaways/defense-

Ferris overall D and pass D better than last year's team and give up 70 yards less overall and 6 fewer points per game than Argos. Both are even on sacks (34-31) with Ferris better at picks (19-11) and Argos better at forcing and recovering fumbles. (17-6). Advantage to Ferris.

8. Points/Conversions/Red Zone

Both score the same amount of points and TDs with Argos evenly balanced between pass and run TDs (32-29) and Ferris tilted more to run TDs. (43-17) Ferris D gives up fewer points (12-18) per game and Argos slightly better on 3rd down conversion and much better at 4th downs. (75%-55%) Argos also slightly better at red zone scoring and red zone TDs. On balance even split here between the teams.

9. Ball Security-

This is one area that sticks out as potential game changing advantage for Argos. Argos give up fumbles much less (9-19) and force and recover more fumbles with strip style of D (17-6) than Ferris. Big advantage to Argos.

10. Playoff record/numerology/prediction-

The Argos are 7-0 all time on road in playoffs, are clearly not intimidated by anyone on road and have won in semis in similar cold at IUP in 2017. Ferris is 12-5 overall and 8-3 at home in playoffs in last 5 years. They have lost at home in first round in 2014, in second round in 2015 and in regional in 2017. Argos hoping to play well enough to continue odd year home loss trend for Bulldogs, but that will be difficult task with Ferris advantage in running game. Ferris obviously favored in cold at home, but Argos have chance if they can exploit ball security advantage for short fields. Nail biter of game that is too close to call and is toss up that could go to either team depending on turnovers. Whoever wins will be worthy opponent for Slippery Rock or Minn. State in title game.

Gooo Arrrgggooosss!

[OldBison]

[Blazetastic]

UWF football: Argos draw top-seeded Ferris State in Final Four matchup

Go get em Argos!! You'll have to play your absolutely BEST Defensive game too; we know!

[Argonut]

At IUP in 2017 Argos won ball security and turnover battle 0-2 and converted both turnovers into 10 points for 27-17 win.

[Wide_Right]

A



The Argos are 7-0 all time on road in playoffs, !

Really good analysis. However, 2017 NC game at Sporting Park, is not considered a road game?

[Argonut]

[Fan_the_Flame]

The art of rationalization. : - )

I'm pretty good at it myself.

So in the NC game you weren't in Blue Wahoo. You took a plane. Your team TRAVELED to get there.

It's a road game.

Now maybe you could rationalize that since travel was in the air versus via roadway that it wasn't a road game. Now that'd be closer to believable.

W4, no offense but you're 7-1 on the road.

Here's an interesting tid bit: If you make it to and win the championship game you'll have beaten teams in the playoffs that were a combined 59-1 when you played them. Wingate is the only team that had a loss when you played (VSU was 10-0, L-R was 13-0, Ferris is 12-0. MSM and SR are currently 13-0, so whichever team makes it through will be 14-0 when you play them.

If the 2-loss Argos can pull that off it'd be mighty impressive. And I hope you do exactly that.

[Argonut]

Both the Argo AND Blazer athletic departments record wins and losses in home, road and neutral categories, so there is no rationalization, just following the standardized record keeping of the schools. I seriously doubt any team driving to Blue Wahoo believes they are playing a neutral site game against the Argos.

[DawgUp]

Good analysis by Fish. I'm wondering at what point our injuries are going to catch up to us. Seems like every time we take one it's end of the season type. We're going to have to play our best game of the year to stay in this one. West Florida is full of D1 transfers and 300lb plus dudes up front on both sides of the lines. Doubt we wear down their D due to their depth.

It'll be a challenge for us for sure.

[West Florida]

Can't wait for this one. I just watched Ferris State's game from Saturday. It hurts the Bulldogs that they are without QB Jayru Campbell for the rest of the season. FSU is a very good team, but if West Florida plays at their best this is a very winnable game for the Argos. I say that with extreme caution. The weather actually does scare me, FSU is a team made for the snow and freezing weather. If this game was played in beautiful Blue Wahoo Stadium, I would like the Argos a lot. It won't be though and the uglier the better for FSU. I think they want this game as snowy as possible and to muck it up as much as possible. The Bulldogs would love for the weather to make this a battle of running games. UWF would love to make this a passing competition (yes, UWF is balanced, but their advantage here is in the air) This will not feel like a #2 vs #20 match-up. West Florida will get off the bus and feel like they are the better team. A huge key to this game for me is if UWF can get ahead early and create a situation where FSU has to put it in the air. They CAN pass, but I'm not sure how much they want to. If the Argos can shut down the run early, the FSU coaching staff will know quickly they are in trouble. Their passing stats for the season are completely misleading as they had Jayru Campbell most of the season. I love our road warrior Argos, but after this season lets start being in a position to host these playoff games!

[Mk63NuclearBomb]

I think this is a close game, and WF would probably be in the top 10 if they switched the Valdosta and C-N games on the schedule. That said, they let good teams hang around in the 4th after going up early. Ferris has scored 53 of their 62 playoff points in the second half, and allowed just six after the break.

[West Florida]

I agree. West Florida has had big leads in the last 2 games and in both the Argos let the opposing team back in the game and gave them a chance to win. That can't continue.