Delta State vs. West Florida (26 Nov 22)

[CalifOKRA]

A big time rematch!
I’m looking forward to Argonut’s breakdown.

[Argonut]

The Argos put their 8-0 playoff road record on the table at McCool field where the Statesmen hold a 8-2 playoff record themselves. Delta tied the series between the teams at 3-3 with their overtime thriller in Pensacola earlier this year.

That game was the first to break a statistical truth in the series. Until that game the team that ran for more yards and committed equal or fewer turnovers and penalties won every game. In that earlier game the Argos out rushed the Statesmen (386 to 117) and tied in penalty yards, but coughed up the ball 4-0.

At McCool field the Argos are 2-1 and every game at McCool has followed this statistical truth. Every winner has outrushed the other, committed fewer turnovers and either tied or committed fewer yards in penalties.

Given that the Argos lead the Statesmen in rushing yards per game in the GSC you have to conclude they have the edge going into the game if they can hold onto the ball and keep their cool at McCool. The weather forecast calls for cool weather at McCool so it should be easier to keep your cool.

Should be another close game because every contest at McCool has been a close one, from the barn burner in 2016 won by Delta 55-51 to the Argo school record comeback win 39-33 in 2021. Buckle up for a wild ride this Saturday.

[CalifOKRA]

Well done Argonut!

Big plays and turnovers killed UWF in the regular season matchup.

Im hoping DSU didn’t peak too soon. DSU will have to play better than they have the last few weeks. The defense will have to play MUCH better. Shegog needs to be aggressive, but take care of the ball. He’s thrown some poor interceptions the last few weeks, including yesterday.

[UNALions]

A rematch of a Week 3 2OT shootout! Should be fun to watch!!

[BlazerLady]

This game should be on ESPN!!

[Redwing]

This game should be on ESPN!!

Why?

[Deltadog72]

Change of subject and not related. Tough loss for UWF soccer in elite 8. Leading 3-1 with 21 left and lost 4-3.

[Shugley]

Why?

Because it would feature a good D2 game, which doesn’t happen on ESPN often.

I can’t wait. Should be a great game by two great squads.

[Wide_Right]

This game is going to be a slobberknocker. Turnovers will be key, Best of luck to both teams..

[BlazerLady]

Why?

A game between the top 2 teams in the conference will be wild!

[Argonut]

The current weather forecast for Saturday is 50’s with showers and breeze of 10 mph, so the team that executes the three critical metrics (rushing, turnovers and penalties) the best will probably win the game.

Both teams outrushed, won the turnover battle and committed less penalty yardage than their season average in their first round playoff game.

For the season so far the Argos outrush their opponents by 90 yards, are plus 1 on turnovers and commit 60 yards in penalties per game. The Statesmen follow a similar script and outrush their opponents by 50 yards, are plus 11 on turnovers and also commit 60 yards in penalties per game.

The Argos average 20 yards more rushing on offense and give up 20 yards less on defense than the Statesmen who average 30 yards more than Argos passing on offense and give up 30 yards more on pass defense.

Since their regular season game the Argos per game turnover ratio ranges from -1 to +2 and the Statesmen’s ratio is wider from -2 to +4. Who does the best on turnover ratio will probably win the game since the weather will probably suppress the passing game.

[statesmen supporter]

This game should be awesome!! Hope it lives up to the hype!! Let’s Go Statesmen!! Lock the gates!! Okra gonna knock you out!! I’m ready let’s go!! There are lots of great storylines and players in this game!

[Argonut]

The history of this series and the bad weather forecast pretty much guarantee this Saturday’s contest will be a ground game. The earlier game saw the Argos run up 386 yards @ 7.6 avg. on 51 carries. The Okra was held to 117 @ 3.5 on 33 carries. The season averages for the teams are 244 /gm. @ 6.9 for Argos and 222 /gm. @5.1 for Statesmen.

The average time of possession per game for each team is 29 minutes for Argos and 26 minutes for the Statesmen. The Argos season fumbles are 11-8 and the Statesmen are 11-5.

The teams pile up yardage with different approaches. The Argos leading rusher is RB Mason at 84 yd./gm. and who set a school record in last game vs. Delta with 214 yds.

The Statesmen’s leading rusher is the QB Shegog at 60 yds./gm. and he had the most carries in the previous game vs the Argos. I don’t know if having your QB carrying the load on the ground is a good strategy for a deep playoff run.

The season numbers for the primary rushers for each team are listed below.

West Florida

Mason 933 yds. @ 7.7 avg. 84/gm. 7 TD
Hargrove 713 @ 8.9 64/gm. 3 TD
Jarrett 644 @ 6.4 58/gm. 8 TD
Wilson 364 @ 5.8 36/gm. 11 TD

Delta State

Shegog 712 @ 5.4 60/gm. 14 TD
Gainwell 531 @ 4.5 44/gm. 11 TD
Smith 430 @ 5.0 35/gm. 7 TD
Malloy 426 @ 5.8 35/gm. 2 TD
Franklin 300. @ 4.6 27/gm. 2 TD

[statesmen supporter]

Great game / showdown write up. https://www.flofootball.com/articles...iv-ii-playoffs

[Argonut]

Today I wanted to compare the QB who apart from their differences in size (Shegog: 6’ @ 200 lbs.; Jarrett: 6’3” @ 245) have strikingly similar stats for the season and in the previous game. They both have accounted for 36 TDs on season, 4 TDs in prior game with 8 INTs for year and nearly identical efficiency rating.

Shegog is more of a shake and bake runner and has run more times than Jarrett who has a run you over style of running. Shegog is more accurate with a more catchable ball and Jarrett has a bigger arm and throws harder with a ball no one can catch at times.

In prior game Shegog had no fumbles or INT and was sacked once while Jarrett had no sacks, one INT and if my memory is correct I believe he lost the ball at goal line trying to reach it across for TD. He has to match Shegog on mistakes if he wants to win Saturday because the ball will be wet.

The prior game and season stats are listed below.

2022 game

Shegog (Graduate)

19-36-0 for 294 yds. and 3 TDs @ 15.3 per compl.
1 sack and 0 fumbles
14-82 yds. rushing @ 5.9 with 1 TD

Jarrett (Junior)

21-40-1 for 276 yds. and 4 TDs @ 13.1 per compl.
0 sacks and 1 fumble
10-85 yds. rushing @ 8.5 with 0 TD


2022 season

Shegog

200-306-8 for 2617 yds., 22 TDs, 65% completion
218 yds. / gm. and 155 efficiency rating

14 sacks for 60 yds. (Team stat.)

132-712 yds. rushing @ 5.4, 14 TDs, 60 yds./gm.


Jarrett

135-259-8 for 2219 yds., 28 TDs, 52% completion
201 yds./gm. and 153 efficiency rating

7 sacks for 48 yds. (Team stat.)

100-644 yds. rushing @ 6.4, 8 TDs, 58 yds./gm.