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Delta State vs. West Florida (26 Nov 22)

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  • #16
    Game Preview https://gostatesmen.com/news/2022/11...und-clash.aspx

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    • #17
      With the offenses of both teams racing up and down the field and lighting up the scoreboard like a pinball machine it is hard to find defensive highlights from the first game that would predict their performance in the second game. Both defenses gave up more points (+20 pts. for both) and yards than their season averages (Argos +50 yds. and Okra +250 yds.) in the first game and this is my best guess at how the defenses might perform this Saturday.

      1. West Ala. effect-

      Both offenses piled up yards in first game this year between West Ala. and Delta, but the second game was a different story as both defenses clamped down on the offenses and drastically reduced the yards given up. I expect the coaches and players of both teams will have learned something from first game to apply to defense of second game and it will be less of a track meet.

      2. Ball stripping-

      Two of the Argo fumbles in first game were great ball strips by Delta defender and I expect we will see more of this by both teams with a wet ball. Delta has shown better results than Argos so far this year, but Argos do practice stripping at every practice and are not slouches at stripping.

      3. Run defense-

      The Argo run defense was the only defensive unit that performed better than their season averages and I’m sure they would love to replicate that on Saturday. I expect both run defenses to do better because of West Ala. effect and RB slowed up by slipping on wet field and running with both hands over wet ball to reduce fumbling.

      4. Pass defense-

      Argo QB throws hard ball that is hard to catch in dry conditions and wet ball is going to reduce Argo pass production for this reason alone. Depending on heaviness of rain and wetness of ball, I expect pass defenders on both teams to do better in forcing incompletions.

      5. Sacks-

      There was only 1 total sack in first game for both teams and I expect this number will go up, especially after Delta coaches review Limestone halftime adjustments that bottled up Jarrett in the pocket. I realize both QB are good elusive runners, but 1 total sack in first game seems abnormally low and should go up to some extent.

      Comment


      • #18
        The weather forecast has worsened as the week has progressed with rain becoming heavier in the second half and SE winds 15-20 mph, which means gusts will be higher. Research on weather effects on football games shows scoring is suppressed with these conditions as teams pass less, run more, kick shorter FG and fair catch more.

        The special teams have the potential to produce a game deciding play in these circumstances and both teams have excellent special teams. My guesstimates of the weather effects and any advantages of either team are below.


        Kickoff/Return/Onsides

        Both teams have good kickers that can kickoff 60 yards for touchbacks, especially downwind. Kickoffs and returns are least affected by the weather since there are no snaps, no one trying to block the kick and returners have plenty of time to catch the ball.

        Argos averaged 25 yards on returns in first game and Okra did much better at 36 yards with a TD. Neither team has tried an onside kick all year, but these wet conditions might tempt the coaches to surprise the other with one before the usual end of game attempt.

        Punting/Returns

        This special team has the greatest potential for a game changer since the weather will affect the snap, the catch of snap, the kick or the shank, the block, the distance, the catch of returner or the muff. Both teams have punters that kick the ball 40 yards on average, both blocked punts for TDs last week, both held the other to no returns in first game and Argo #1 D2 returner Durden muffed a catch last week for a Limestone TD. The potential for a big play that decides the game is huge here.

        Placekicking

        Both teams have top of D2 FG kickers who rarely miss anything, although both missed one FG in first game. They both made all PATs in first game. I expect the coaches will go for it more on 4th down vs. a long FG, unless the long FG is downwind or end of game decider. I expect we’ll see lots of conservative short kicks attempted and made due to conditions.

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        • #19
          Rain certainly had a bearing on the Old Miss/Miss. State game last night. Craziest 2nd half I have ever seen.

          #BlazerNation

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          • #20
            Ran will for sure contribute to the game! Hopefully a great game!! Go Statesmen!!

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            • #21
              Can we all agree that the winner gets to be the outright GSC champ?

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Shugley View Post
                Can we all agree that the winner gets to be the outright GSC champ?
                Sounds fair to me.
                Hoping for clean, well officiated, injury free game.

                Time difference allows 1 1/2 hours of Wingate/Benedict game( 1 pm est) before 2:30 pm est GSC tilt. That is if GSC got times right this week.

                Comment


                • #23
                  According to this morning’s weather radar forecast today’s rain is coming out of the gulf and a bad patch of yellows and reds will hit Cleveland right at game time.

                  I don’t know if the Okra have played in this kind of bad weather before, but the 2019 Argos went to West Georgia and played in a tropical storm where they only completed 2 passes and ran the ball all game for a muddy 30-2 win where the defense forced 6 turnovers. It will probably be that kind of a game today absent the mud. I hope the Okra’s high tech drainage for McCool field works today. Gooo Arrrgggooosss!!!

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                  • #24
                    Only the true, dedicated fans sit through a game in a rain storm.......just sayin' !

                    #BlazerNation

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Argonut View Post
                      According to this morning’s weather radar forecast today’s rain is coming out of the gulf and a bad patch of yellows and reds will hit Cleveland right at game time.

                      I don’t know if the Okra have played in this kind of bad weather before, but the 2019 Argos went to West Georgia and played in a tropical storm where they only completed 2 passes and ran the ball all game for a muddy 30-2 win where the defense forced 6 turnovers. It will probably be that kind of a game today absent the mud. I hope the Okra’s high tech drainage for McCool field works today. Gooo Arrrgggooosss!!!
                      Have you ever been to the delta? You can usually see a tropical storm coming hours/days before it arrives. A thunderstorm in the delta can pop up in a matter of minutes and when it's over,
                      the first tought for many is WT@#? Thank you Lord for sparing me!
                      Ah, yeah, they have played in bad weather before.........

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Got my rain suit on and ready to go! Besides that, God made me waterproof! Hope to see a large crowd and a great game!

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Argonut View Post
                          According to this morning’s weather radar forecast today’s rain is coming out of the gulf and a bad patch of yellows and reds will hit Cleveland right at game time.

                          I don’t know if the Okra have played in this kind of bad weather before, but the 2019 Argos went to West Georgia and played in a tropical storm where they only completed 2 passes and ran the ball all game for a muddy 30-2 win where the defense forced 6 turnovers. It will probably be that kind of a game today absent the mud. I hope the Okra’s high tech drainage for McCool field works today. Gooo Arrrgggooosss!!!
                          Weather (rain) is the great equalizer ..
                          <>

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Argonut View Post
                            The history of this series and the bad weather forecast pretty much guarantee this Saturday’s contest will be a ground game. The earlier game saw the Argos run up 386 yards @ 7.6 avg. on 51 carries. The Okra was held to 117 @ 3.5 on 33 carries. The season averages for the teams are 244 /gm. @ 6.9 for Argos and 222 /gm. @5.1 for Statesmen.

                            The average time of possession per game for each team is 29 minutes for Argos and 26 minutes for the Statesmen. The Argos season fumbles are 11-8 and the Statesmen are 11-5.

                            The teams pile up yardage with different approaches. The Argos leading rusher is RB Mason at 84 yd./gm. and who set a school record in last game vs. Delta with 214 yds.

                            The Statesmen’s leading rusher is the QB Shegog at 60 yds./gm. and he had the most carries in the previous game vs the Argos. I don’t know if having your QB carrying the load on the ground is a good strategy for a deep playoff run.

                            The season numbers for the primary rushers for each team are listed below.

                            West Florida

                            Mason 933 yds. @ 7.7 avg. 84/gm. 7 TD
                            Hargrove 713 @ 8.9 64/gm. 3 TD
                            Jarrett 644 @ 6.4 58/gm. 8 TD
                            Wilson 364 @ 5.8 36/gm. 11 TD

                            Delta State

                            Shegog 712 @ 5.4 60/gm. 14 TD
                            Gainwell 531 @ 4.5 44/gm. 11 TD
                            Smith 430 @ 5.0 35/gm. 7 TD
                            Malloy 426 @ 5.8 35/gm. 2 TD
                            Franklin 300. @ 4.6 27/gm. 2 TD
                            Qb carries the load for deep playoff run and national championship for Ferris State in blowout win over Valdosta.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Argos taking field in Stormtroopers today!!

                              Gooo Arrrgggooosss!!!

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                              • #30
                                Delta Dawn is rain ready !! It looks like it will be raining for most of the game. Guess we will play the cards we are given Fighting Okra is ready.

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