Trying to get an idea on the Conference

[spidermac]

Hmmm...just trying to reason things out here...or figure them out...

Everyone thinks SAU and SEOSU are going to win..

.

Most think HSU is going to beat OKB...only two picks for OKB...

This one I kind of get, going to be a good game...12 folks think OBU beats HU...7 went with HU...most think its going to be within a score...4 folks thought it would be at least a 2 score game...1 person thought 3 scores...

Then NW and ECU pretty even on the picks, same with ATU and UAM...some have the games picked close, some large margins of victory...for all 4 teams...

So...what I am wondering...how is everyone coming to these conclusions? I know how I did...I used the WAG method... (Wild A$$ Guess). I know SNU has been bad for a while...I know that OBU and Harding have pretty good teams, at least over the last few years...but what about everyone else? What makes one pick UAM over ATU? Or the reverse? Is there knowledge to it? I picked ATU because it would be bad form to pick against my son's team :P

Tell me what you know :) Please?

[Armo Wood]

Spidermac,

I won't try to speak for everyone else, but I will give you my perspective about why one could pick either UAM or ATU.

ATU has talent, but with a new coaching staff everything is bit up in the air in terms of how the team will mesh in actual games. Granted, new HC Kyle Shipp is a good offensive minded coach and he went out and got a good DC who is familiar with the GAC. However, with a new OC that on the surface has a slightly different offensive approach [at least based on history] than what we have seen from Shipp and questions about who the QB will be, that makes the ATU offense a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, to start the 2019 preseason. Recent history, ATU has been a very good defensive team, but outside of the Brent Dearmon as OC years, they have struggled offensively.

UAM has a bunch of offensive talent returning, but question marks at QB and RB. They also lost their OC Kyle Shipp to ATU, and have a new young OC, who has position coaching experience in the GAC, but only 1 year of OC experience at a JUCO. UAM's DC left for a D1 job, and they have gone through at least one other DC before Spring Ball. In recent years UAM has been a very strong offense. While UAM has not been a defensive powerhouse, they have been steadily improving--at least compared to where they were five years ago.

Now, to throw in more monkey-wrenches to the mix. Just like the HU-OBU games have a rivalry feel to them, so do the ATU-UAM games. No matter how bad or good either ATU or UAM is they always have dogfights. Add in the fact that defenses are typically ahead of offenses at this point of the season and you have a situation as clear as mud for those trying to prognosticate this game.

[Bytor]

Now, to throw in more monkey-wrenches to the mix. Just like the HU-OBU games have a rivalry feel to them, so do the ATU-UAM games. No matter how bad or good either ATU or UAM is they always have dogfights. Add in the fact that defenses are typically ahead of offenses at this point of the season and you have a situation as clear as mud for those trying to prognosticate this game.

Exactly.

My method is the modified WAG (SWAG) which adds the Stupid in front!

[Bigworm]

I gave UAM the nod simply because of home field. I almost picked OKBU to win but they didnt beat a single AR school last year so I had to go with the bad guys.

[walnut100]

I usually pick based on past results and whatever I know about what each team is returning/how they are performing vs other teams as the season progresses. It's definitely not a science, especially for teams in the middle of the pack.

[OBULurker]

I gave UAM the nod simply because of home field. I almost picked OKBU to win but they didnt beat a single AR school last year so I had to go with the bad guys.

Question preceded by a statement: I am accustomed to crowds at FCS and FBS levels and not D2. How much home field advantage do you really think there is in D2, especially on a somewhat short travel and why?

[Bigworm]

Question preceded by a statement: I am accustomed to crowds at FCS and FBS levels and not D2. How much home field advantage do you really think there is in D2, especially on a somewhat short travel and why?

I wouldnt say the crowd would be a major factor. Just the fact that UAM is playing on their own field. In state crowds are usually pretty good, but again, not the reason for my pic.

[OBULurker]

I wouldnt say the crowd would be a major factor. Just the fact that UAM is playing on their own field. In state crowds are usually pretty good, but again, not the reason for my pic.

[Mulerider]

So in UAM's case, I would say that UAM is on the rise and will probably see similar success to last year. I think ATU still has a lot going on behind the scenes and not sure if the talent in Russ Vegas is good enough overall, or at least from a 2 deep perspective. Also home field advantage for UAM.I think the UAM boys are finally seeing that the can compete in the conference.