Originally posted by Brandon
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Ferris v NWMS aka Sandbag Bowl II
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Originally posted by Mk63NuclearBomb View Post
That's entirely fair. I'm kinda misconstruing his stuff as predictive when it's more focused on picking games ATS. Still though, his stuff is about as good as it can get before vegas starts incorporating it in setting lines.
Connelly's D1 rankings are based on success rates using play by play data. The thing I like most about his D1 rankings is that it filters out garbage time stats (i.e., plays when margin is 22+ in 4th quarter). His FCS and D2 rankings are based on yards per play and box score stats so not sure they have a garbage time adjustment. A division wide ranking system with opponent adjustments needs non-conference games in order to know what the adjustment should be. With certain conferences having silo schedules there isn't as much interconnectivity.
In my opinion SP+ underrates the MIAA while Massey overrates them, though both are similar for this game. SP+ has Ferris by 7.3 with 66% win probability. Massey has the most likely outcome 28-21 Ferris with 67% win probability.
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Originally posted by Mk63NuclearBomb View Post
Depends. If we're just talking LR and Rock, Rock would probably host LR by virtue of being a higher seed in the first place.
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Originally posted by Brandon View Post
The seeds don't matter once you reach the semifinals. The criteria are reevaluated at that point. Theoretically, a team that got in via Earned Access in one region could host the #1 seed of another region in the semifinals.
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