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Ferris v NWMS aka Sandbag Bowl II

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Brandon View Post

    Do you ever look at Massey?
    Nah, which is weird considering Ferris has been the Massey darling as of late.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Mk63NuclearBomb View Post

      That's entirely fair. I'm kinda misconstruing his stuff as predictive when it's more focused on picking games ATS. Still though, his stuff is about as good as it can get before vegas starts incorporating it in setting lines.
      5Dimes had lines for last weeks games and the (Beta) SP+ went 5-3. I seriously considered signing up and putting the limit on NWMSU -14.5 which is opposite SP+'s pick.


      Connelly's D1 rankings are based on success rates using play by play data. The thing I like most about his D1 rankings is that it filters out garbage time stats (i.e., plays when margin is 22+ in 4th quarter). His FCS and D2 rankings are based on yards per play and box score stats so not sure they have a garbage time adjustment. A division wide ranking system with opponent adjustments needs non-conference games in order to know what the adjustment should be. With certain conferences having silo schedules there isn't as much interconnectivity.

      In my opinion SP+ underrates the MIAA while Massey overrates them, though both are similar for this game. SP+ has Ferris by 7.3 with 66% win probability. Massey has the most likely outcome 28-21 Ferris with 67% win probability.

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      • #18
        ferris should be hosting a semi final if they win. As for the bearcats, not so much.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Twincitiesmav View Post

          ferris should be hosting a semi final if they win. As for the bearcats, not so much.
          It would take a lot of upsets for that to happen.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Twincitiesmav View Post

            ferris should be hosting a semi final if they win. As for the bearcats, not so much.
            If NW wins and Commerce wins, then I would say NW would host. If NW wins and MSU wins, then MSU hosts.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by DawgUp View Post

              Wishful thinking. Been like that for years.
              So I take it that we have to pay the $8.95 for crappy video according to the Ferris site.?

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              • #22
                Originally posted by GreenwoodBearcat View Post

                So I take it that we have to pay the $8.95 for crappy video according to the Ferris site.?
                Nope. All PO games have to be free.

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                • #23
                  i watched the Ferris feed on Saturday, it was good...

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                  • #24
                    I think NW must hold FSU to 16 pts or less to win.

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                    • #25
                      So if LR wins and Slippery wins who would host?

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Marvin Everett View Post
                        So if LR wins and Slippery wins who would host?
                        Depends. If we're just talking LR and Rock, Rock would probably host LR by virtue of being a higher seed in the first place.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Mk63NuclearBomb View Post

                          Depends. If we're just talking LR and Rock, Rock would probably host LR by virtue of being a higher seed in the first place.
                          The seeds don't matter once you reach the semifinals. The criteria are reevaluated at that point. Theoretically, a team that got in via Earned Access in one region could host the #1 seed of another region in the semifinals.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Brandon View Post

                            The seeds don't matter once you reach the semifinals. The criteria are reevaluated at that point. Theoretically, a team that got in via Earned Access in one region could host the #1 seed of another region in the semifinals.
                            Yes I forgot about that, but it's still going to be hard for LR to host a game without a good bit of chaos elsewhere.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by GreenwoodBearcat View Post

                              So I take it that we have to pay the $8.95 for crappy video according to the Ferris site.?
                              No. It's a PO rule that if video is offered, it has to be free.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                If ND wins and NWMS wins and LR wins and Minn wins who goes where

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