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  • #16
    Re: 2018 MIAA Surprise team.

    Originally posted by Ian Carlson View Post
    To tack on to what catz54 wrote, FHSU losing Shepherd is gonna be a larger hole to fill than anyone NW lost.
    I'm not so sure; they don't need to have an NFL quality replacement, they just need to find an above average D2 defensive end to compete in the MIAA. Just because FHSU has to use a player a step back from Nathan Shepherd doesn't mean they don't have somebody a step ahead of the rest of D2 quality d-lineman.

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    • #17
      Re: 2018 MIAA Surprise team.

      Originally posted by EveryCatAWildman View Post
      I'm not so sure; they don't need to have an NFL quality replacement, they just need to find an above average D2 defensive end to compete in the MIAA. Just because FHSU has to use a player a step back from Nathan Shepherd doesn't mean they don't have somebody a step ahead of the rest of D2 quality d-lineman.

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      • #18
        Re: 2018 MIAA Surprise team.

        From what I have heard, is that NW has brought in a very good transfer DT...but will wait to see. NW should be just fine and dandy on D again this year. Wright will make sure of that. On the other side of the ball is where the big question marks will once again happen. We supposedly have a backfield full of talent, but that won't get you to far if the damn receivers cannot run a route to save their, you know what. What we had last year in terms of receivers was a complete embarrassment. Flohr and Osborn should be totally held accountable for that.

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        • #19
          Re: 2018 MIAA Surprise team.

          Originally posted by GreenwoodBearcat View Post
          From what I have heard, is that NW has brought in a very good transfer DT...but will wait to see. NW should be just fine and dandy on D again this year. Wright will make sure of that. On the other side of the ball is where the big question marks will once again happen. We supposedly have a backfield full of talent, but that won't get you to far if the damn receivers cannot run a route to save their, you know what. What we had last year in terms of receivers was a complete embarrassment. Flohr and Osborn should be totally held accountable for that.
          I have been critical of Bane in the past. I don't think you play up all the "Bane" stuff unless you produce like he is capable of producing. That being said, the kid is super talented and maybe just had a bad year (defined as his output vs. what he is capable of) last year it happens. I hope he comes out his senior year and simply becomes what he is capable of, and we will all be happy. Kid's got massive ability. He needs to once again be the star he is.

          Same goes for Sykes. All the ability in the world. Huge guy with massive potential. It's his last college football season, so let's hope it comes to him. A lot of people brushed off his lack of usage/production on him being new and not knowing the system. Well it's time to figure it out.

          Carmickle and Gould had great tape and I know Carmickle had his shirt pulled. My guess is they have some ability and we will see it this season.

          Tatum is the classic NW possession guy. All around good athlete, great hands, not the biggest guy, but makes those tough catches. He's not a star, but a very important piece. He needs to become the kid that makes the big third down catches.

          Some of those freshman look like they could contribute if need be. Roberts' tape especially looks good.

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          • #20
            Re: 2018 MIAA Surprise team.

            Originally posted by catz54 View Post
            FHSU is going to continue to be a good program, no doubt.

            For instance 59% of the sacks for NW would be 24 total sacks and for FHSU 67% would be 15 total.
            That's why I prefer the percentages over actual numbers, both NW Mo and FHSU produced less sacks in 2017 from what they had in 2016. (NW Mo went from 47 to 41, FHSU went from 33 to 24). Doesn't mean in the least the defenses took a step back. In fact they arguably got better. We don't know year to year how many total sacks, in this case, a team is going to produce. We suspect they will get some, better defenses more than others. So what the percentage tells us is a replacement of in-kind production. For every 3 sacks FHSU would be expected to get in the next season they need to replace 1. Whereas, NW Mo for every 3 sacks expected to get in the next season they need to replace 1.5

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            • #21
              Re: 2018 MIAA Surprise team.

              Originally posted by EveryCatAWildman View Post
              A comparison of FHSU to NW Mo returning roster and production

              FHSU has 36 upper classmen on the roster for 8th year head coach
              NW Mo has 38 upper classmen on the roster for 2nd year head coach
              (both teams equal here, both have established rosters and coaches that know their system)

              FHSU returns 42% rushing yards, 99% passing yards, 38% receiving yards
              NW Mo returns 50% rushing yards, 1% passing yards, 48% receiving yards
              (fairly equal except FHSU returns their starting QB, and backup that also started multiple games last year; FHSU losses it's top RB and WR from last year which is going to hurt, not sure with NW how the running game will transpire *Jordan Thompson?* and they have a quality transfer coming in)

              FHSU returns 83% of tackles, 67% of sacks, 100% of INTs
              NW Mo returns 63% of tackles, 59% of sacks, 77% of INTs
              (defense is where FHSU *should* separates itself, they return the top 8 tacklers on the team and all the secondary)

              FHSU returns 100% punt, 0% FGs, 92% return yards
              NW Mo returns 100% punt, 100% FG, 67% return yards
              (fairly equal, FHSU has to find a FG kicker but NW Mo might need to as well)
              Noob skin

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              • #22
                Re: 2018 MIAA Surprise team.

                Originally posted by EveryCatAWildman View Post
                That's why I prefer the percentages over actual numbers, both NW Mo and FHSU produced less sacks in 2017 from what they had in 2016. (NW Mo went from 47 to 41, FHSU went from 33 to 24). Doesn't mean in the least the defenses took a step back. In fact they arguably got better. We don't know year to year how many total sacks, in this case, a team is going to produce. We suspect they will get some, better defenses more than others. So what the percentage tells us is a replacement of in-kind production. For every 3 sacks FHSU would be expected to get in the next season they need to replace 1. Whereas, NW Mo for every 3 sacks expected to get in the next season they need to replace 1.5
                i get your logic but it is flawed. If Missouri Southern (who had 10 sacks) returned their entire defensive two deep (100% of their output) no one would still give a rip about their defense.

                The statistical gap between NW and every other MIAA defense is noticeable. Also the reality is noticeable. Northwest did not give up 1 rushing TD last year. That's insane.

                The other thing is Northwest's defense has been good forever. Through personnel changes, coaching changes, etc. For the last 10 years, by and large, it hasn't mattered who was coaching or what kids we have had.

                I imagine that will stay true, but who knows really. I would have told you our offense would always be serviceable, but last year's wasn't. In general, i don't worry about the defense being top notch.

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                • #23
                  Re: 2018 MIAA Surprise team.

                  Originally posted by EveryCatAWildman View Post
                  A comparison of FHSU to NW Mo returning roster and production

                  FHSU has 36 upper classmen on the roster for 8th year head coach
                  NW Mo has 38 upper classmen on the roster for 2nd year head coach
                  (both teams equal here, both have established rosters and coaches that know their system)

                  FHSU returns 42% rushing yards, 99% passing yards, 38% receiving yards
                  NW Mo returns 50% rushing yards, 1% passing yards, 48% receiving yards
                  (fairly equal except FHSU returns their starting QB, and backup that also started multiple games last year; FHSU losses it's top RB and WR from last year which is going to hurt, not sure with NW how the running game will transpire *Jordan Thompson?* and they have a quality transfer coming in)

                  FHSU returns 83% of tackles, 67% of sacks, 100% of INTs
                  NW Mo returns 63% of tackles, 59% of sacks, 77% of INTs
                  (defense is where FHSU *should* separates itself, they return the top 8 tacklers on the team and all the secondary)

                  FHSU returns 100% punt, 0% FGs, 92% return yards
                  NW Mo returns 100% punt, 100% FG, 67% return yards
                  (fairly equal, FHSU has to find a FG kicker but NW Mo might need to as well)

                  To me a lot of these numbers are pointless... yes, it's nice to have great players returning, but 50% of NW Mo rushing yards returns... who cares, we couldn't run the ball. Injuries were part of that, but I don't know that these numbers really matter when the offense flat out needs huge improvements in scheme, line play, and receiver play. 1% of passing yards... meh. 2 years ago, with Bolles graduating from NW and looking at the % of passing yards returning, it would've looked bleak heading into the season. All Zimmerman did was finish 2nd in the Harlon Hill and win a National Championship. With the addition of Caldwell, and the young running backs a year older, I would expect the run game to be better. Also, if the quarterback that wins the job, has the ability to pull the ball down and run, that will also change the offensive dynamic. I don't think the percentages of what's returning will have a lot of effect on what the Northwest offense will look like this year. Maybe I just hope it doesn't. Defensively, Northwest will be solid again... I don't think anyone around the program is too worried about that. If Fort Hays separates itself from Northwest, it'll be because Northwest hasn't been able to right the ship on offense from a year ago.

                  Fort Hays and Northwest won't be surprises if they're on top once again, because they both defend well. To get back on topic, if they can assemble some sort of a consistent defense, Central would be the "surprise" team that can win this league in my opinion. Their offense will win them a lot of games.

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                  • #24
                    Re: 2018 MIAA Surprise team.

                    Originally posted by Alfred33 View Post

                    Fort Hays and Northwest won't be surprises if they're on top once again, because they both defend well. To get back on topic, if they can assemble some sort of a consistent defense, Central would be the "surprise" team that can win this league in my opinion. Their offense will win them a lot of games.
                    I agree with Central. They have a ton of fire power and Bolles is a good QB. Their defense always tends to be athletic and next year i don't think is any exception. Honestly, their success or failure never surprises me. They have the horses to be successful, but like a lot of sports team, for some reason or another, don't put it together.

                    Emporia wouldn't surprise me if they contended either. Pretty talented group.

                    Central OK also seems to be close with their talent, but for some reason fall apart. Their D usually struggles in the back 7. Decent front 4s.

                    I just don't see Pitt as more than middle of the road right now, but I honestly haven't been following their team. The rest? I would be pretty surprised.

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                    • #25
                      Re: 2018 MIAA Surprise team.

                      A comparison of Pitt St. to Central O. returning roster and production

                      Pitt has 42 upper classmen on the roster for 9th year head coach
                      Central O. has 32 upper classmen on the roster for 2nd year head coach
                      (Pitt brings back a lot of experience this year, while UCO lost most their production and still a newish coach to the MIAA)

                      Pitt returns 43% rushing yards, 46% passing yards, 43% receiving yards
                      Central O. returns 58% rushing yards, 1% passing yards, 27% receiving yards
                      (This basically tells me Pitt St. got their 2-deep quite a bit of action last year, which should make them fairly seasoned on offense this year...Central O. lost Luper who was their offense, not sure they get that back.)

                      Pitt returns 82% of tackles, 78% of sacks, 75% of INTs
                      Central O. returns 66% of tackles, 98% of sacks, 79% of INTs
                      (Pitt again brings a lot of returning production to the defense. Meanwhile what's interesting about Central O is how much of the sack/int they bring back which tells me they relied a lot on speed and those sacks actually came from blitzing backfield)

                      Pitt returns 100% punt, 100% FGs, 53% return yards
                      Central O. returns 100% punt, 75% FG, 8% return yards
                      (Pitt returns their production but I kind of doubt Tucker Horak punts as much as he did last year, not that it matters they have Anchors who did just as well, Pitt returns FG kicker who was more than serviceable at 80%. Once again UCO lost Luper for offensive production but crazy enough return yards weren't all that great (28 yards per game, and only 12 per attempt) so UCO just doesn't care about trying to return it seems)

                      Pitt looks good across the board, lots of returning experience and production. While they lost some starters (Rose, LePage, Panko), the back ups all got enough time on the field to be considered a class ahead. Central O. without Luper is going to be interesting and they have defensive up front positions to fill. I think they are a team that steps back.

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                      • #26

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                        • #27
                          Re: 2018 MIAA Surprise team.

                          Originally posted by EveryCatAWildman View Post
                          A comparison of Pitt St. to Central O. returning roster and production

                          Pitt has 42 upper classmen on the roster for 9th year head coach
                          Central O. has 32 upper classmen on the roster for 2nd year head coach
                          (Pitt brings back a lot of experience this year, while UCO lost most their production and still a newish coach to the MIAA)

                          Pitt returns 43% rushing yards, 46% passing yards, 43% receiving yards
                          Central O. returns 58% rushing yards, 1% passing yards, 27% receiving yards
                          (This basically tells me Pitt St. got their 2-deep quite a bit of action last year, which should make them fairly seasoned on offense this year...Central O. lost Luper who was their offense, not sure they get that back.)

                          Pitt returns 82% of tackles, 78% of sacks, 75% of INTs
                          Central O. returns 66% of tackles, 98% of sacks, 79% of INTs
                          (Pitt again brings a lot of returning production to the defense. Meanwhile what's interesting about Central O is how much of the sack/int they bring back which tells me they relied a lot on speed and those sacks actually came from blitzing backfield)

                          Pitt returns 100% punt, 100% FGs, 53% return yards
                          Central O. returns 100% punt, 75% FG, 8% return yards
                          (Pitt returns their production but I kind of doubt Tucker Horak punts as much as he did last year, not that it matters they have Anchors who did just as well, Pitt returns FG kicker who was more than serviceable at 80%. Once again UCO lost Luper for offensive production but crazy enough return yards weren't all that great (28 yards per game, and only 12 per attempt) so UCO just doesn't care about trying to return it seems)

                          Pitt looks good across the board, lots of returning experience and production. While they lost some starters (Rose, LePage, Panko), the back ups all got enough time on the field to be considered a class ahead. Central O. without Luper is going to be interesting and they have defensive up front positions to fill. I think they are a team that steps back.
                          On offense Pitt will have Clemons healthy as he missed most of last year. With West improving and JRod playing like he did in the bowl game there is optimism on offense.

                          Defense will be a wait and see for me.
                          It will determine if we are middle of pack as Joe said or a true contender.

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                          • #28
                            Re: 2018 MIAA Surprise team.

                            Originally posted by PSR View Post
                            On offense Pitt will have Clemons healthy as he missed most of last year. With West improving and JRod playing like he did in the bowl game there is optimism on offense.

                            Defense will be a wait and see for me.
                            It will determine if we are middle of pack as Joe said or a true contender.
                            JRod is the difference, IMO. Pitt has largely been driven by QB play in the past. Most teams need good QB play, but Pitt seems thrive on it to special seasons.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by catz54 View Post
                              JRod is the difference, IMO. Pitt has largely been driven by QB play in the past. Most teams need good QB play, but Pitt seems thrive on it to special seasons.
                              So does Northwest - all three of the recent NC seasons had a QB who could drive the offense, either by themselves (2015-16) or in platoon (2013).


                              Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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                              • #30
                                Re: 2018 MIAA Surprise team.

                                Well, get ready for FHSU to be THAT team.

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