Nov. 11 Regional Rankings

[NewCatEyez]

SUPER REGION THREE
1	Ferris St.	9-0	10-0
2	Central Mo.	10-0	10-0
3	Ouachita Baptist	10-0	10-0
4	Harding	9-1	9-1
5	UIndy	8-1	8-1
6	Northwest Mo. St.	9-1	9-1
7	Henderson St.	9-1	9-1
8	Grand Valley St.	6-2	8-2
9	Lindenwood (MO)	7-1	7-2
10	Missouri Western	7-3	7-3

[northwest missouri state]

for those that crunch the #'s....question.....what chance would there be (if any) for us to miss the po's w/ a loss this weekend? & on the flip side how high could we necessarily/reasonably rise w/ a win?

[GorillaBred]

for those that crunch the #'s....question.....what chance would there be (if any) for us to miss the po's w/ a loss this weekend? & on the flip side how high could we necessarily/reasonably rise w/ a win?

I know you asked for the opinion of someone who had crunched some numbers on this... and that's not me... but, considering that UCM is ahead of OBU, it seems likely to me that a 10-1 NW would be ahead of a 10-1 Harding. I think NW would climb to 3 with a win and even climb to 2 if HSU beats OBU. I think NW would fall behind GVSU with a loss, but would stay ahead of Lindenwood. So could fall out if HSU beats OBU.

Kinda fun to have 4 of the top 7 playing each other in week 11.

[Taxman]

I know you asked for the opinion of someone who had crunched some numbers on this... and that's not me... but, considering that UCM is ahead of OBU, it seems likely to me that a 10-1 NW would be ahead of a 10-1 Harding. I think NW would climb to 3 with a win and even climb to 2 if HSU beats OBU. I think NW would fall behind GVSU with a loss, but would stay ahead of Lindenwood. So could fall out if HSU beats OBU.

Kinda fun to have 4 of the top 7 playing each other in week 11.

Why would NW fall behind GV with a loss?

[GorillaBred]

Why would NW fall behind GV with a loss?

The same reason UCM is behind FSU when both are undefeated--in the "more precise numbers are meaningless" world of SR3, this is the GLIAC's year to be slotted ahead.

[BearcatDude]

The same reason UCM is behind FSU when both are undefeated--in the "more precise numbers are meaningless" world of SR3, this is the GLIAC's year to be slotted ahead.

GLIAC actually plays OOC games, so their numbers can actually be above/below .500 unlike the MIAA/GAC

[ShirtedBearcat]

If NW loses to UCM, it would make our record identical to GVSU (they should win). Our losses would be basically identical (two undefeated teams in Ferris and UCM and UNK and Ashland are both currently 6-4). Would GVSU's SOS be higher than NW's anyway? Their OOC games were not really that spectacular. Would they weight SOS more heavily, or "in-region" wins, which NW will have more of?

[Brandon]

If NW loses to UCM, it would make our record identical to GVSU (they should win). Our losses would be basically identical (two undefeated teams in Ferris and UCM and UNK and Ashland are both currently 6-4). Would GVSU's SOS be higher than NW's anyway? Their OOC games were not really that spectacular. Would they weight SOS more heavily, or "in-region" wins, which NW will have more of?

GV's SOS should be like .505 to Northwest .500, which is a tie if the committee is acting rationally.

GV's in-region record should not be counted against them.

SR3
41 - Teams
32 - Non-GLIAC
24 - Can't play.
8 - Won't play (for the most part)

[TSU_Mike59]

GV's SOS should be like .505 to Northwest .500, which is a tie if the committee is acting rationally.

GV's in-region record should not be counted against them.

SR3
41 - Teams
32 - Non-GLIAC
24 - Can't play.
8 - Won't play (for the most part)

"For the most part"?
Six of the eight GLVC teams played teams from the GLIAC this year, including two GLVC teams that played multiple non-con games against GLIAC schools.

[catbacker07]

"For the most part"?
Six of the eight GLVC teams played teams from the GLIAC this year, including two GLVC teams that played multiple non-con games against GLIAC schools.

But would they play GV? That was his point.

[Brandon]

"For the most part"?
Six of the eight GLVC teams played teams from the GLIAC this year, including two GLVC teams that played multiple non-con games against GLIAC schools.

I was referencing GV. I should have been more clear. I know WJC played them. Jewell also played Tarleton. I didn't intend to cast shade, only to point out this problem:

Even if every GLVC team agreed to schedule two GLIAC games, there still wouldn't be enough games for the regional component to be fair to all GLIAC teams because one team would always been left without an opponent, causing them to have one less game in one of the criteria.

[Brandon]

But would they play GV? That was his point.

Indianapolis has previously. I was at the GV/Truman game in Kirksville. And thank you for understanding my point. I could be wrong and my sources might be completely full of junk, but I doubt GV would be playing games against non-region teams in Colorado if it could instead play against teams that required half the distance.

[bigsig50]

I know you asked for the opinion of someone who had crunched some numbers on this... and that's not me... but, considering that UCM is ahead of OBU, it seems likely to me that a 10-1 NW would be ahead of a 10-1 Harding. I think NW would climb to 3 with a win and even climb to 2 if HSU beats OBU. I think NW would fall behind GVSU with a loss, but would stay ahead of Lindenwood. So could fall out if HSU beats OBU.

Kinda fun to have 4 of the top 7 playing each other in week 11.

LU and GV are SUPER close right now. Looking at the numbers, I think the GV's D2 road record is why the committee picked GV ahead of the Lions. After Saturday, they SHOULD have the same road record.

It's going to be very close between LU and NW if NW looses to UCM (and assuming LU beats SBU). LU will obviously have SOS and a better regional record. They will also be 5-0 against teams .500 or above. Their best win being against a current playoff team will also be in their favor.

My worry is getting into a "beauty contest" with NW. I honestly think the numbers would favor LU getting the 7th spot over NW and GV if the the Mules beat NW.

My dream scenario this weekend would be for OBU to be Henderson, UCM over NW, and WSU over GV.... and of course LU beating SBU. That would make LU's path a LOT clearer.

[NW Normal]

Big Sig wrote: My worry is getting into a "beauty contest" with NW. I honestly think the numbers would favor LU getting the 7th spot over NW and GV if the the Mules beat NW.

My dream scenario this weekend would be for OBU to be Henderson, UCM over NW, and WSU over GV.... and of course LU beating SBU. That would make LU's path a LOT clearer.

Bite your tongue; you spew blasphemy.

[Shanghai Mule]

I can see why Lindenwood decided to cut and run from the MIAA go to the GLVC. They would have probably finished in the bottom half of the MIAA, but instead they're now a top dog in the GLVC and might qualify for the playoffs....what a joke.