BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

[Mulerider]

Here is just my amatur analysis, Please share your thoughts as well.

So looking at the stats right now it's definitely going to be a good one. It will be fairly windy, wind is suppose to be over 10 mph. Here is a general analysis.

SAU Passing Game: SAU should definitely be able to use the passing game though, as there is no rain or dampness. Missouri Western has struggled against the pass, so I figure SAU should be able to put up decent passing numbers.

SAU Run Game: SAU may struggle with the run as Missouri Western is top of the MIAA when it comes to protecting against the run. Barrett Reiner should be the difference maker for the SAU office as well has Higgins.

Missouri Western Passing Game: Missouri Western may get some bigger passing numbers than normal. I know they tend to throw less than most teams, but this may be their key. SAU has struggled against the pass lately.

Missouri Western Run Game: This is the most interesting thing we may see all day. While Missouri Western doesn't have near the run game that Harding does, they can definitely move the ball on the ground. Will SAU's run defense hold up like during the season? We will have to see. My guess is that Missouri Western runs for less than they are use to, but SAU also gives up much more as well.

Special Teams: This should be about even. Curious if the wind will be a factor.

Difference Maker in my Opinion: SAU's Passing Offense, I think it just will be too much. You have a QB and a WR most likely playing their last game. This should be fun to watch.

Final Score: SAU 45 Missouri Western 31

Anything I am missing?

[GorillaBred]

Re: BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

Here is just my amatur analysis, Please share your thoughts as well.

So looking at the stats right now it's definitely going to be a good one. It will be fairly windy, wind is suppose to be over 10 mph. Here is a general analysis.

SAU Passing Game: SAU should definitely be able to use the passing game though, as there is no rain or dampness. Missouri Western has struggled against the pass, so I figure SAU should be able to put up decent passing numbers.

SAU Run Game: SAU may struggle with the run as Missouri Western is top of the MIAA when it comes to protecting against the run. Barrett Reiner should be the difference maker for the SAU office as well has Higgins.

Missouri Western Passing Game: Missouri Western may get some bigger passing numbers than normal. I know they tend to throw less than most teams, but this may be their key. SAU has struggled against the pass lately.

Missouri Western Run Game: This is the most interesting thing we may see all day. While Missouri Western doesn't have near the run game that Harding does, they can definitely move the ball on the ground. Will SAU's run defense hold up like during the season? We will have to see. My guess is that Missouri Western runs for less than they are use to, but SAU also gives up much more as well.

Special Teams: This should be about even. Curious if the wind will be a factor.

Difference Maker in my Opinion: SAU's Passing Offense, I think it just will be too much. You have a QB and a WR most likely playing their last game. This should be fun to watch.

Final Score: SAU 45 Missouri Western 31

Anything I am missing?

I'm not saying your final score prediction will be wrong, but I think in 7/11 games this year for MW (only exceptions being two blowouts each way), the combination of penalties, turnovers and special teams were the difference maker. Either team's regular old offensive and defensive abilities tend to take a back seat in MW games.

[Mulerider]

Re: BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

I'm not saying your final score prediction will be wrong, but I think in 7/11 games this year for MW (only exceptions being two blowouts each way), the combination of penalties, turnovers and special teams were the difference maker. Either team's regular old offensive and defensive abilities tend to take a back seat in MW games.

So do you think it could be closer? I will say, SAU has had quite a few fumbles, but has won the penalty game all year by staying disciplined. This does seem to be the best year in a while for SAU Special Teams, not a great Kicker/Punter, but better than normal it seems. SAU has struggled so much in the past with Special Teams. I know that Missouri Western has had some bad calls against them, but you can't blame all of them on the refs.

[GrifFan]

Re: BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

I'm not saying your final score prediction will be wrong, but I think in 7/11 games this year for MW (only exceptions being two blowouts each way), the combination of penalties, turnovers and special teams were the difference maker. Either team's regular old offensive and defensive abilities tend to take a back seat in MW games.

Turnovers are generally the key. This is not unique to Missouri Western, but the Griffs were +10 in their 6 wins and -4 in their five losses. They were 4-1 when they had a positive differential, 1-3 with a negative differential, and 1-1 when the turnovers were even. Penalties didn't correlate nearly as much - the two lowest penalty yardage totals (40 vs UCM and 34 vs UCO) were both losses, the two highest (147(!) vs. FHSU and 180(!!!) vs NSU) were wins. We do get penalized a lot, which means the chances of a penalty impacting the game goes up.

The other key thing for MW is qb performance (and again, that's not unique). In the last eight games of the year, if Dom Marino had a passing efficiency of at least 100, they won; if it was below 100, they lost. There's no real way to predict which Marino will show up; my hope is that as a senior he'll be able to end his career on a high note.

I agree with Mulerider that it should be a good game, and that the key matchups involve SAU's passing game and MWSU's running game. I think MR's predicted score is too high - Missouri Western has only given up 45 points once this year (UCM, 51) and SAU has only reached that score twice (55 against Oklahoma Baptist and 48 against East Central).

I'll probably have more thoughts to share as the week goes on.

[Mulerider]

Re: BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

Turnovers are generally the key. This is not unique to Missouri Western, but the Griffs were +10 in their 6 wins and -4 in their five losses. They were 4-1 when they had a positive differential, 1-3 with a negative differential, and 1-1 when the turnovers were even. Penalties didn't correlate nearly as much - the two lowest penalty yardage totals (40 vs UCM and 34 vs UCO) were both losses, the two highest (147(!) vs. FHSU and 180(!!!) vs NSU) were wins. We do get penalized a lot, which means the chances of a penalty impacting the game goes up.

The other key thing for MW is qb performance (and again, that's not unique). In the last eight games of the year, if Dom Marino had a passing efficiency of at least 100, they won; if it was below 100, they lost. There's no real way to predict which Marino will show up; my hope is that as a senior he'll be able to end his career on a high note.

I agree with Mulerider that it should be a good game, and that the key matchups involve SAU's passing game and MWSU's running game. I think MR's predicted score is too high - Missouri Western has only given up 45 points once this year (UCM, 51) and SAU has only reached that score twice (55 against Oklahoma Baptist and 48 against East Central).

I'll probably have more thoughts to share as the week goes on.

I can understand where you are coming from. I just think that SAU will definitely get at least 2 passing TD's if not 3 or 4. I wouldn't be suprised if we only got one or two running TD's.

[Predatory Primates]

Re: BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

MoWest Run D is pretty darned good. Their pass D is decent, but that's where SAU will have to hurt them.

[Predatory Primates]

Re: BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

On the other side. Their QB is fast and a much better runner than passer. The OL is also pretty good. SAU will have to stop the run or they'll get ground and pounded..

[Mulerider]

Re: BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

MoWest Run D is pretty darned good. Their pass D is decent, but that's where SAU will have to hurt them.

I am not worried about their passing D really, I think Barrett Reiner will want to finish his last game strong. He also has experience playing in the bowl game from year's past as well as that specific stadium.

[Predatory Primates]

Re: BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

My advice to SAU.
-Talk a little trash to get MW into "personal fouls are more fun than winning" mode.
-Kick it to their returners deep. They will always bring it out because it's better to look good and start drives at the 2 than to fair catch.

[Mulerider]

Re: BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

My advice to SAU.
-Talk a little trash to get MW into "personal fouls are more fun than winning" mode.
-Kick it to their returners deep. They will always bring it out because it's better to look good and start drives at the 2 than to fair catch.

We may be able to do the second one, I believe we will come out of the gate throwing bombs.

[Divisiontwo]

Re: BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

I am not worried about their passing D really, I think Barrett Reiner will want to finish his last game strong. He also has experience playing in the bowl game from year's past as well as that specific stadium.

Would he not want to play every game well?

[Mulerider]

Re: BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

Would he not want to play every game well?

Something about that last game of your career, it's different. You play with more emotion.

[southside]

Re: BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

MWSU seems to be,more than any other year I can recall recently, very streaky. Several games they have been beaten pretty good in the 1st half and then seem to wake up and turn the tables inn the second half. I've used the term Jekyl and Hyde more than once.

It also seems like the matchups on paper where it may be harder to stop the run or vice versa for a good d to stop us has been hard to predict at time.

If Marino has a good game and our ground game is at least to our average I like our chances. As griffan said turnovers have so much to do with any teams success. I don't know much about SAU but i tend to say thier favored.

I would think the Griffs would be fired up to be playing period. So I think it will be a competitive game.

[jimbo slice]

Re: BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

My advice to SAU.
-Talk a little trash to get MW into "personal fouls are more fun than winning" mode.
-Kick it to their returners deep. They will always bring it out because it's better to look good and start drives at the 2 than to fair catch.

boy that's no sh*t lol....I don't think ive ever seen them let one go into the end zone or call a fair catch....

[Mulerider]

Re: BOWL GAME WEEK! Missouri Western vs Southern Arkansas University

boy that's no sh*t lol....I don't think ive ever seen them let one go into the end zone or call a fair catch....

Hopefully SAU then will figure that out quickly.