Week 9 SR4 Bracketology

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

10/25 Bracketology based on current results, projected future results, SOS, and less than 600 mile travel consideration:

Pittsburg State (6-2, At Large) @ 1) Harding (8-0, Automatic Qualifier)
Colorado State Pueblo (7-1, At Large) @ 4) Western Colorado (8-0, Automatic Qualifier)
Chadron State (6-1, At Large) @ 3) Northwest Missouri (7-1, Automatic Qualifier)
Western Oregon (5-1, At Large) @ 2) Central Washington (7-0, Automatic Qualifier)

First Four Out: Southern Arkansas (6-2), UTPB (6-2), Angelo State (6-2), Northeastern State (4-2)

Games to Watch for 11/1:

RMAC:
Colorado State Pueblo (7-1) @ Western Colorado (8-0)

LSC:
Angelo State (6-2) @ Central Washington (7-0)

GAC:
Southern Arkansas (6-2) @ East Central (5-3)

MIAA:
Northwest Missouri (7-1) @ Emporia State (4-4)

[CatFan88]

Week 9 SR4 Rankings
1. Harding 8-0 (GAC): OK Baptist 2-6, @ S. Nazarene 1-7, @ Arkansas Tech 5-3
2. Central Washington 7-0 (LSC): ASU 5-2, @ Sul Ross St. 0-7, @ W. Oregon 5-1
3. W. Colorado 8-0 (RMAC): CSU-Pueblo 7-1, @ Chadron St. 6-1, Colorado Mesa 4-4
4. NW Missouri St. 7-1 (MIAA): @ Emporia St. 4-4, Missouri Western 2-6, vs Pittsburg St. 6-2
5. Pittsburg St. 6-2 (MIAA): Missouri Southern 3-5, @ Central Missouri 3-5, vs NW Missouri St. 7-1
6. UTPB 6-2 (LSC): @ W. New Mexico 2-6, E. New Mexico 2-6, Sul Ross St. 0-7
7. Southern Arkansas 6-2 (GAC): @ East Central 5-3, SE Oklahoma St. 4-4, Arkansas-Monticello 2-6
8. Chadron St. 6-1 (RMAC): @ S.D. Mines 2-6, W. Colorado 8-0, @ CSU-Pueblo 7-1
9. CSU-Pueblo 7-1 (RMAC): @ W. Colorado 8-0, @ Colorado Mines 5-3, Chadron St. 6-1
10 W. Oregon 5-1 (LSC): Midwestern St. 2-6, @ Angelo St. 5-2, Central Washington 7-0

[d2-football-fan]

Week 9 SR4 Rankings
1. Harding 8-0 (GAC): OK Baptist 2-6, @ S. Nazarene 1-7, @ Arkansas Tech 5-3
2. Central Washington 7-0 (LSC): ASU 5-2, @ Sul Ross St. 0-7, @ W. Oregon 5-1
3. W. Colorado 8-0 (RMAC): CSU-Pueblo 7-1, @ Chadron St. 6-1, Colorado Mesa 4-4
4. NW Missouri St. 7-1 (MIAA): @ Emporia St. 4-4, Missouri Western 2-6, vs Pittsburg St. 6-2
5. Pittsburg St. 6-2 (MIAA): Missouri Southern 3-5, @ Central Missouri 3-5, vs NW Missouri St. 7-1
6. UTPB 6-2 (LSC): @ W. New Mexico 2-6, E. New Mexico 2-6, Sul Ross St. 0-7
7. Southern Arkansas 6-2 (GAC): @ East Central 5-3, SE Oklahoma St. 4-4, Arkansas-Monticello 2-6
8. Chadron St. 6-1 (RMAC): @ S.D. Mines 2-6, W. Colorado 8-0, @ CSU-Pueblo 7-1
9. CSU-Pueblo 7-1 (RMAC): @ W. Colorado 8-0, @ Colorado Mines 5-3, Chadron St. 6-1
10 W. Oregon 5-1 (LSC): Midwestern St. 2-6, @ Angelo St. 5-2, Central Washington 7-0

GAC:
SAU's absolute best case is to be #10, but they are basically irrelevant to the PO's now, in fact it should be Angelo on this list instead
Harding's only question is their final seed in the region

RMAC:
All three of Chadron, CSUP and WCO have every option in front of them. CSUP may be the most limited of a top tier seed because of the loss, but still a conference championship and home game is in play. It is possible that all three get in, as shown above, but if one of these teams loses to both of the others, they are likely left out.

MIAA:
I feel like PSU and NWMSU are both in, everything depends on their upcoming head to head

LSC:
It still looks like multiple entrants here, with lots of opportunities for upsets and shuffling of the "multiple entrants"
CWU controls their own destiny and likely a top seed if they win out
WO, Angelo and Permian Basin can all get in if they win out, and maybe two of them depending on the outcomes with the RMAC teams

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

GAC:
SAU's absolute best case is to be #10, but they are basically irrelevant to the PO's now, in fact it should be Angelo on this list instead
Harding's only question is their final seed in the region

RMAC:
All three of Chadron, CSUP and WCO have every option in front of them. CSUP may be the most limited of a top tier seed because of the loss, but still a conference championship and home game is in play. It is possible that all three get in, as shown above, but if one of these teams loses to both of the others, they are likely left out.

MIAA:
I feel like PSU and NWMSU are both in, everything depends on their upcoming head to head

LSC:
It still looks like multiple entrants here, with lots of opportunities for upsets and shuffling of the "multiple entrants"
CWU controls their own destiny and likely a top seed if they win out
WO, Angelo and Permian Basin can all get in if they win out, and maybe two of them depending on the outcomes with the RMAC teams

Great post. A few thoughts.

GAC: You cant say Southern Arkansas is irrelevant yet. CSU-Pueblo and UTPB are currently under .500 SOS non conference water and ASU isnt far behind. If we are going by strictly numbers then SAU will have their silo advantage of an even .500 SOS record. Just the eye test they are likely the weakest team in this group. Harding likely on track for a top seed unless Colorado Mesa pulls some upsets.

MIAA: Agree that its just the NW Missouri and Pitt State show. Pitt probably needs to beat NW Missouri and eliminate all doubt. NW Missouri could be playing for a Top 2 overall seed if Central Washington gets upset. Trap games with Pitt at Central Missouri and NW Missouri at Emporia loom before that.

LSC: UTPB's SOS is going to take a massive hit from this point forward playing the bottom 3 teams of the LSC that will likely finish with a combined 5-23 record their last 3 games. Also their direct non conference is poor with Adams State likely to finish 0-11 and Central Oklahoma 7-4 best case. UTPB currently has a Western Oregon head to head wall but Western Oregon will likely lose 2 games. Angelo Has their season in front of them but they also have a head to head wall with UTPB. Will winning out be enough to jump UTPB? LSC best case scenario is for Chadron to lose 2 more games and Southern Arkansas to get 1 more loss.

RMAC: They could get 3 teams in if the top 3 RMAC teams defend their home fields the rest of the season. Western Colorado seems the most vulnerable of the group with an under water .500 SOS with Midwestern State dragging them down if they lose 2. Pueblo is slightly underwater with Central Missouri at 3-5 and likely worse after the Pitt State game. Just a feeling that Chadron has the highest chance to lose 2 games and be out but also the highest chance of non conference SOS being above .500 with Wayne State and Kearney being above .500

[loper legionnaire]

Just a feeling that Chadron has the highest chance to lose 2 games and be out but also the highest chance of non conference SOS being above .500 with Wayne State and Kearney being above .500

Chadron lost to Northern Colorado (FCS) and UNK in the non-conference. They didn't play Wayne.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

Chadron lost to Northern Colorado (FCS) and UNK in the non-conference. They didn't play Wayne.

Nice catch. I meant to type Wayne as part of the OOP when Kearney played them. Sometimes the fingers move faster than the Brain.

[CatFan88]

GAC:
SAU's absolute best case is to be #10, but they are basically irrelevant to the PO's now, in fact it should be Angelo on this list instead
Harding's only question is their final seed in the region

RMAC:
All three of Chadron, CSUP and WCO have every option in front of them. CSUP may be the most limited of a top tier seed because of the loss, but still a conference championship and home game is in play. It is possible that all three get in, as shown above, but if one of these teams loses to both of the others, they are likely left out.

MIAA:
I feel like PSU and NWMSU are both in, everything depends on their upcoming head to head

LSC:
It still looks like multiple entrants here, with lots of opportunities for upsets and shuffling of the "multiple entrants"
CWU controls their own destiny and likely a top seed if they win out
WO, Angelo and Permian Basin can all get in if they win out, and maybe two of them depending on the outcomes with the RMAC teams

Pure math. ASU isn't top 10 in SOS + W% (12) or PI (17). SAU is 10th SOS + W% and 7th PI. Makes them very relevant. Lots of football left and I expect a very fluid top 10 the final 3 weeks.

[OldBison]

My gut tells me this is how it’s going down:

Chadron loses to both CSU-P and WC. SAU wins out. CWU defeats WOU.

Therefore in SR4 Round 1:

Pitt @ HU
CSUP @ WC
SAU @ NWMSU
UTPB @ CWU

[CatFan88]

My gut tells me this is how it’s going down:

Chadron loses to both CSU-P and WC. SAU wins out. CWU defeats WOU.

Therefore in SR4 Round 1:

Pitt @ HU
CSUP @ WC
SAU @ NWMSU
UTPB @ CWU

Interesting that Central Washington, W. Oregon and ASU have a season ending mini tournament in the LSC and Chadron, Pueblo, and W. Colorado have the same in the RMAC. Potential there to really wreck some good seasons.

[Predatory Primates]

My gut tells me this is how it’s going down:

Chadron loses to both CSU-P and WC. SAU wins out. CWU defeats WOU.

Therefore in SR4 Round 1:

Pitt @ HU
CSUP @ WC
SAU @ NWMSU
UTPB @ CWU

That would assume NW beats Pitt. Otherwise, I don't see a 2 loss NW getting a home game instead of a 2 loss Pitt.

[NWFanatic]

Posted in error & deleted….oops

[Inkblot]

Initial Regional Rankings are out and there’s at least 1 error: NWMSU is 7-0 in Region/7-1 overall

Minnesota State counts as an in-region opponent in every sport.

[NWFanatic]

Minnesota State counts as an in-region opponent in every sport.

My bad-just assumed since they were in SR3 they were out of Region. How are PSU’s 2 games vs MI teams and NW’s 1 game vs a MN team different? Is out of region better worse or same as in region for regional rankings?

[Inkblot]

My bad-just assumed since they were in SR3 they were out of Region. How are PSU’s 2 games vs MI teams and NW’s 1 game vs a MN team different? Is out of region better worse or same as in region for regional rankings?

To be honest, I don't think it makes much of a difference at all in football whether a game is in-region or not.

[OldBison]

That would assume NW beats Pitt. Otherwise, I don't see a 2 loss NW getting a home game instead of a 2 loss Pitt.

I agree. Regardless, if HU gets the 1 seed they’re going to face Pitt or NW in round one and SAU will face the one HU does not, if SAU wins out. Of course I’m assuming Pitt can be still in with 3 losses. Am I crazy?