Week 11 SR4 Bracketology

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

Latest SOS and KPI projections by Inkblot Sports: https://inkblotsports.com/d2stats/2526/mfb/sr4.html

11/8: Bracketology based on current results, SOS, and less than 600 mile travel consideration:

Pittsburg State (8-2, At Large) @ 1) Harding (10-0, Clinched Automatic Bid)
Western Colorado (8-2, At Large) @ 4) Colorado State - Pueblo (9-1, Automatic Qualifier)
Chadron State (8-1, At Large) @ 3) Northwest Missouri (9-1, Automatic Qualifier)
Western Oregon (7-1, At Large) @ 2) Central Washington (9-0, Automatic Qualifier)

First Two Out: UTPB (8-2), Northeastern State (5-2).

Qualified: Harding.
Safe: Central Washington, Northwest Missouri, Colorado State-Pueblo, Chadron State, Western Oregon.
Should be in: Pittsburg State.
Work to Do: Western Colorado.
Needs Help: UTPB (needs to win plus Western Colorado loss), Northeastern State (Needs to win plus Western Colorado and UTPB loss).

Games to Watch for 11/15:

RMAC:
Chadron State (8-1) @ Colorado State - Pueblo (9-1)
Colorado Mesa (6-4) @ Western Colorado (8-2)

LSC:
Central Washington (9-0) @ Western Oregon (7-1)

MIAA:
Pittsburg State (8-2) vs. Northwest Missouri (9-1) [Neutral Field]

INDEPENDENT:
Northeastern State (5-2) @ West Alabama (5-3)

[the Northeasterner]

I think it is a stretch for NSU to make the playoffs. But in light of the msst loss I'm very happy to be 11th. But stranger things have happened. We go down to West Alabama and pull the upset we definitely should make top ten at end of year

[Wallst]

Congrats to NSU for a great season!!! Try to sign your coach to a long term contract with a sizeable buyout. Get it done today! He will still leave but the $ will help the program attract a better new HC. Your AD has proven he can find talent.

With playoffs assured do Chafdron and CSPU play it vanilla and use backups?

[CatFan88]

Week 11 SR4 Rankings (W% + SOS):
1. Harding (1.488) 10-0: @ Arkansas Tech 7-3 GAC AUTOMATIC QUALIFIER
2. Central Washington (1.475) 9-0: @ Western Oregon 7-1
3. NW Missouri St. (1.403) 9-1: vs Pittsburg St. 8-2
4. CSU-Pueblo (1.362) 9-1: Chadron St. 8-1
5. Chadron St. (1.357) 8-1: @ CSU-Pueblo 9-1
6. Pittsburg St. (1.326) 8-2: vs NW Missouri St. 9-1
7. Western Oregon (1.323) 7-1: Central Washington 9-0
8. UTPB (1.288) 8-2: Sul Ross St. 0-10

OUT:
1. Western Colorado (1.270) 8-2: Colorado Mesa 6-4
2. Northeastern St. (1.211) 5-2: @ West Alabama 5-3

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

I think it is a stretch for NSU to make the playoffs. But in light of the msst loss I'm very happy to be 11th. But stranger things have happened. We go down to West Alabama and pull the upset we definitely should make top ten at end of year

I think they had a legit shot if Chadron and Western Oregon lost their last 2 games. Great season and get those 11 D2 games in next year.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

Congrats to NSU for a great season!!! Try to sign your coach to a long term contract with a sizeable buyout. Get it done today! He will still leave but the $ will help the program attract a better new HC. Your AD has proven he can find talent.

With playoffs assured do Chafdron and CSPU play it vanilla and use backups?

No way. Winner hosts and loser travels. Chadron would travel to northwest with a loss and Pueblo could travel to Pitt with a loss if Pitt beats Northwest.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

Week 11 SR4 Rankings (W% + SOS):
1. Harding (1.488) 10-0: @ Arkansas Tech 7-3 GAC AUTOMATIC QUALIFIER
2. Central Washington (1.475) 9-0: @ Western Oregon 7-1
3. NW Missouri St. (1.403) 9-1: vs Pittsburg St. 8-2
4. CSU-Pueblo (1.362) 9-1: Chadron St. 8-1
5. Chadron St. (1.357) 8-1: @ CSU-Pueblo 9-1
6. Pittsburg St. (1.326) 8-2: vs NW Missouri St. 9-1
7. Western Oregon (1.323) 7-1: Central Washington 9-0
8. UTPB (1.288) 8-2: Sul Ross St. 0-10

OUT:
1. Western Colorado (1.270) 8-2: Colorado Mesa 6-4
2. Northeastern St. (1.211) 5-2: @ West Alabama 5-3

Yeah I switched Western Colorado and UTPB because I doubt UTPB's SOS holds up after the Sul Ross game if Western Colorado beats Mesa at home.

[CatFan88]

Yeah I switched Western Colorado and UTPB because I doubt UTPB's SOS holds up after the Sul Ross game if Western Colorado beats Mesa at home.

That's gonna be close I think, so I just went strictly by the numbers for the top 8. Statistically, Southern Arkansas still ahead of Northeastern State but switched them because NSU W% slightly better. If NSU wants to contend next year for a PO spot, they really need to dump the Lincoln (CA) game and start scheduling in-region games. As it stands, I really don't think the committee could over look playing 2 or 3 less D2 games and playing 1/2 the in-region games as everyone else. The battle for the 1 seed is also gonna be close. CWU really wants Mesa to take out W. Colorado.

[Predatory Primates]

That's gonna be close I think, so I just went strictly by the numbers for the top 8. Statistically, Southern Arkansas still ahead of Northeastern State but switched them because NSU W% slightly better. If NSU wants to contend next year for a PO spot, they really need to dump the Lincoln (CA) game and start scheduling in-region games. As it stands, I really don't think the committee could over look playing 2 or 3 less D2 games and playing 1/2 the in-region games as everyone else. The battle for the 1 seed is also gonna be close. CWU really wants Mesa to take out W. Colorado.

Regionality hasn't mattered for a long time. They just need to schedule D2 schools.

[CatFan88]

Regionality hasn't mattered for a long time. They just need to schedule D2 schools.

I know, but in the case of NSU, they are the only independent. If the committee is gonna use metrics, playing only 4 in-region games makes it tough to compare them to those playing mostly in-region, if not all in-region. I think the committee would take take that into consideration in addition to the D2 issue.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

I know, but in the case of NSU, they are the only independent, so playing only 4 in-region games makes it tough to compare them to those playing mostly in-region, if not all in-region. I think the committee would take take that into consideration in addition to the D2 issue.

My line of thinking is that they would have had 3 really good road wins at Saginaw, Central Oklahoma, and West Alabama and a narrow 7 point loss to West Florida at home.

The bottom tier playoff 10 couldnt claim any of those type wins.

That loss to Missouri S&T at home hurt.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

That's gonna be close I think, so I just went strictly by the numbers for the top 8. Statistically, Southern Arkansas still ahead of Northeastern State but switched them because NSU W% slightly better. If NSU wants to contend next year for a PO spot, they really need to dump the Lincoln (CA) game and start scheduling in-region games. As it stands, I really don't think the committee could over look playing 2 or 3 less D2 games and playing 1/2 the in-region games as everyone else. The battle for the 1 seed is also gonna be close. CWU really wants Mesa to take out W. Colorado.

Yeah it ill be interesting how all the SOS numbers line up if UTPB and Western Colorado win and Pitt State loses.

Northeastern definitely needs at least 10 D2 games being an independent.

UTPB also wants Mesa to win.

What will also be important is the Angelo State vs. West Texas A&M game.

Angelo wins it gives UTPB the better win and if WT wins it gives Western Colorado the better non-conference win.

UTPB really needs to lose that Adams State turd off the schedule.

[Predatory Primates]

I watched ASU last night. That team has fallen so far since the beginning of the season. They looked like they've already cleared out their lockers.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

I watched ASU last night. That team has fallen so far since the beginning of the season. They looked like they've already cleared out their lockers.

They have had tons of injuries.

I thought their defense would keep them in the game but Western Oregon understood the assignment.

[GorillaTeacher]

I know, but in the case of NSU, they are the only independent. If the committee is gonna use metrics, playing only 4 in-region games makes it tough to compare them to those playing mostly in-region, if not all in-region. I think the committee would take take that into consideration in addition to the D2 issue.

I don’t think In region matters nearly as much as the criteria says.