Final Bracketology and Regional Rankings Projections

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

Latest SOS and KPI projections by Inkblot Sports: https://inkblotsports.com/d2stats/2526/mfb/sr4.html

11/15: Bracketology based on current results, SOS, and less than 600 mile travel consideration:

Northwest Missouri State (9-2, At Large) @ 1) Harding (11-0, Automatic Qualifier)
Chadron State (8-2) @ 4) Pittsburg State (8-2, Automatic Qualifier)
Western Colorado (9-2) @ 3) Colorado State-Pueblo (10-1, Automatic Qualifier)
Western Oregon (7-2, At Large) @ 2) Central Washington (10-0, Automatic Qualifier)

UTPB is 8 and Western Oregon is 9. I have them switched due to head to head.

Interesting note: Northeastern State is ranked 6th in KPI.

[CatFan88]

I think you are right about Western Oregon and they get in after looking at the numbers. They check more boxes than UTBP. I didn't look at the numbers for 5-8 last night and strictly went off overall record and a hunch that UTBP might have a better SOS, which wasn't the case.

[Predatory Primates]

In about 8 hrs we'll know.

All I know is Pitt should end up with one home playoff game.

The addition of the GAC and MIAA to the mix, along with the play style of CWU, and WOU are making it look likeSR4 will be a pretty physical region.

[CatFan88]

If we end up going to Harding, which it looks like we will, then I like that matchup.

[GorillaTeacher]

Ink blot still has NW ahead of us in RR. Which is weird, considering we have a higher SOS, higher win% against .500 teams. I don’t think that’s how it will shake out.

Ink also has both UTPB and WOU in. With Western Colorado out.

if that’s the case
1 Harding versus NWMSU
2 CWU versus WOU
3 CSUP versus Chadron
4 PSU versus UTPB

I dont see how you can give NW the home game when everything else favors PSU, H2H, SOS, and PI. The only metric NWMSU is better in is In region versus out of region. Before in SR3, that didn’t matter… I think it will still be the case.

I think this will yield one flight first round. 1 flight second round if the favorites win.

[Predatory Primates]

Ink blot still has NW ahead of us in RR. Which is weird, considering we have a higher SOS, higher win% against .500 teams. I don’t think that’s how it will shake out.

Ink also has both UTPB and WOU in. With Western Colorado out.

if that’s the case
1 Harding versus NWMSU
2 CWU versus WOU
3 CSUP versus Chadron
4 PSU versus UTPB

I dont see how you can give NW the home game when everything else favors PSU, H2H, SOS, and PI. The only metric NWMSU is better in is In region versus out of region. Before in SR3, that didn’t matter… I think it will still be the case.

I think this will yield one flight first round. 1 flight second round if the favorites win.

I think they'll do the west coast in conf teams in rd 1, but think they'll avoid the rmac rematch if they can.

[GorillaTeacher]

I think they'll do the west coast in conf teams in rd 1, but think they'll avoid the rmac rematch if they can.

Maybe, avoiding rematches has historically been low priority. Both Chadron and UTPB are flights to Pitt. This will change of UTPB is out amd WCU is in, though.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

Ink blot still has NW ahead of us in RR. Which is weird, considering we have a higher SOS, higher win% against .500 teams. I don’t think that’s how it will shake out.

Ink also has both UTPB and WOU in. With Western Colorado out.

if that’s the case
1 Harding versus NWMSU
2 CWU versus WOU
3 CSUP versus Chadron
4 PSU versus UTPB

I dont see how you can give NW the home game when everything else favors PSU, H2H, SOS, and PI. The only metric NWMSU is better in is In region versus out of region. Before in SR3, that didn’t matter… I think it will still be the case.

I think this will yield one flight first round. 1 flight second round if the favorites win.

I respect the heck out of inkblot but I don't think there is an explainable path to where teams other than conference champs host. I could see making a case for Western Colorado to be out because their good wins and bad losses pretty much mirror UTPB but the SOS is slightly better and they have the better non conference wins (WT vs. Central Oklahoma) and overall better non conference turd (Midwestern vs. Adams State).

Simply put if you put UTPB in, then it creates two flights instead of one because you have to find Chadron, Western Colorado, and western Oregon (2 out of 3) travel partners since they all aren't within 600 miles of other conference champs at the same time.

A spoiler would be to put northeastern state in since their PI is 8 and KPI IS 6 with road wins at saginaw, central Oklahoma, and west Alabama and plus they can bus ride most places multiple rounds.

[CatFan88]

Ink blot still has NW ahead of us in RR. Which is weird, considering we have a higher SOS, higher win% against .500 teams. I don’t think that’s how it will shake out.

Those were last week's NCAA D2 Regional Rankings.

[GorillaTeacher]

Those were last week's NCAA D2 Regional Rankings.

No, those were from this morning.

[GorillaTeacher]

I respect the heck out of inkblot but I don't think there is an explainable path to where teams other than conference champs host. I could see making a case for Western Colorado to be out because their good wins and bad losses pretty much mirror UTPB but the SOS is slightly better and they have the better non conference wins (WT vs. Central Oklahoma) and overall better non conference turd (Midwestern vs. Adams State).

Simply put if you put UTPB in, then it creates two flights instead of one because you have to find Chadron, Western Colorado, and western Oregon (2 out of 3) travel partners since they all aren't within 600 miles of other conference champs at the same time.

A spoiler would be to put northeastern state in since their PI is 8 and KPI IS 6 with road wins at saginaw, central Oklahoma, and west Alabama and plus they can bus ride most places multiple rounds.

Valdosta is conference champs. They will not host my

[CatFan88]

No, those were from this morning.

He's posting the NCAA's regional rankings, not his own. He hasn't updated the regional rankings on his site because they aren't out yet. The regional ranking on his site today are exactly the same as the NCAA's last week:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/footba...ional-rankings

SUPER REGION FOUR
1	Harding	10-0	10-0
2	Central Wash.	9-0	9-0
3	Northwest Mo. St.	9-1	9-1
4	CSU Pueblo	9-1	9-1
5	Pittsburg St.	8-2	7-1
6	Chadron St.	8-1	8-1
7	Western Ore.	7-1	7-1
8	UT Permian Basin	8-2	8-2
9	Western Colo.	8-2	8-2
10	Southern Ark.	7-3	7-3

Per inkblotsports.com this morning:

Data through November 15

Regional rankings include data through November 8 (third ranking) (last column)

KPI from Faktor Sports

Harding A	GAC	11-0	.500	11-0	6-0	1.500	1	28.545	1	.336	1	1
Central Washington A	LSC	10-0	.494	10-0	5-0	1.494	2	28.500	2	.288	2	2
Northwest Missouri State	MIAA	9-2	.520	9-2	3-2	1.338	5	25.636	5	.228	4	3
CSU Pueblo A	RMAC	10-1	.495	10-1	5-1	1.404	3	27.091	3	.226	5	4
Pittsburg State A	MIAA	9-2	.550	8-1	4-2	1.368	4	26.545	4	.247	3	5
Chadron State	RMAC	8-2	.495	8-2	4-2	1.295	7	25.200	6	.147	9	6
Western Oregon	LSC	7-2	.489	7-2	2-2	1.267	9	24.222	10	.126	10	7
UTPB	LSC	9-2	.462	9-2	3-2	1.280	8	24.273	9	.147	8	8
Western Colorado	RMAC	9-2	.487	9-2	4-2	1.305	6	25.182	7	.160	7	9
Southern Arkansas	GAC	8-3	.500	8-3	3-3	1.227	11	23.455	11	.113	12	10

[GorillaTeacher]

I Gotchya. For some reason I thought it was sorted differently. My mistake.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

Valdosta is conference champs. They will not host my

Yeah I was talking about our region. The conference champs in SR4 either won it outright or shares a head to head tiebreak.

Northwest Missouri will not have any SOS advantage over any of the top 4 teams.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

Just a fun note.

I had 3 out of the 4 teams picked correctly preseason for the second round and had two matchups (UTPB @ Western Colorado, Pitt State @ Harding) but in different rounds. 5 out of the 8 teams overall to start the playoffs.

https://www.d2football.com/forum/for...ff-predictions

I am still sticking with Harding (Big Shocker) to win the region.