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Second Week SR 4 Regional Rankings as of 11/1

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  • Second Week SR 4 Regional Rankings as of 11/1

    As being reported by NCAA.com. Lots of elimination games this week.

    1. Colorado Mines 7-1: @ CSU-Pueblo (6-3), vs. Adams State (0-9)
    2. Augustana 8-1 : @ Minnesota Duluth (7-2), vs. Minnesota State (2-7)
    3. Central Washington 5-1: @ Western New Mexico (1-7), vs. Simon Frazier (0-4)
    4. Midwestern State 6-1: @ West Texas A&M (4-4), vs UTPB (4-2)
    5. Angelo State 7-2: vs. Texas A&M-Commerce (6-3), @ Texas A&M-Kingsville (3-4)
    6. Western Colorado 8-1: vs. Lincoln (CA), vs. CSU-Pueblo (6-3)
    7. Bemidji State 7-2 : @ Northern State (7-2), vs. Mary (3-6)
    8. Minnesota Duluth 7-2: vs. Augustana (8-1), vs. Northern State (7-2)
    9. Colorado Mesa 6-2: vs. Black Hills State (3-5), @ South Dakota School of Mines and Technology (3-4)
    10. Northern State 7-2: vs. Bemidji State (7-2), @ Minnesota Duluth (7-2)

    Remaining 2 loss teams:
    UTPB 4-2: vs. Texas A&M-Kingsville (3-4), @ Midwestern State (6-1)

    Remaining 3 loss teams:
    Wayne State (Neb.) 6-3: vs. Sioux Falls (6-3), @ MSU-Moorhead (4-5)
    Sioux Falls 6-3: @ Wayne State (6-3), vs. Upper Iowa (1-8)
    CSU-Pueblo 6-3: vs. Colorado Mines (7-1), @ Western Colorado (8-1)
    Texas A&M-Commerce 6-3: @ Angelo State (7-2), vs. Eastern New Mexico (2-6)
    Last edited by Buffalo/Islander Alum; 11-01-2021, 02:37 PM.

  • #2
    My quick check says there are tons of reasonable ways to get a 3-loss team into the 8 spot, but it will take an upset to get to 6 or fewer two loss teams. The cleanest option for a 3-loss 7 seed is an upset loss for Colorado Mesa by one of those two sub .500 opponents.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by We-Are-Lions View Post
      My quick check says there are tons of reasonable ways to get a 3-loss team into the 8 spot, but it will take an upset to get to 6 or fewer two loss teams. The cleanest option for a 3-loss 7 seed is an upset loss for Colorado Mesa by one of those two sub .500 opponents.
      Yeah looking at it Commerce needs these things to happen while winning out.

      1) Bemidji State loses to Northern State
      2) Northern State loses to Minnesota-Duluth
      3) Minnesota-Duluth loses to Augustana
      4) Western Colorado loses to Pueblo (not likely to happen)
      5) Mesa loses 1 of last 2 (least likely to happen)

      OR

      1) Midwestern loses final two games and Commerce gets in by earned access (Top 9)

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Buffalo/Islander Alum View Post

        Yeah looking at it Commerce needs these things to happen while winning out.

        1) Bemidji State loses to Northern State
        2) Northern State loses to Minnesota-Duluth
        3) Minnesota-Duluth loses to Augustana
        4) Western Colorado loses to Pueblo (not likely to happen)
        5) Mesa loses 1 of last 2 (least likely to happen)

        OR

        1) Midwestern loses final two games and Commerce gets in by earned access (Top 9)
        And Commerce needs to beat Angelo...

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Buffalo/Islander Alum View Post

          Yeah looking at it Commerce needs these things to happen while winning out.

          1) Bemidji State loses to Northern State
          2) Northern State loses to Minnesota-Duluth
          3) Minnesota-Duluth loses to Augustana
          4) Western Colorado loses to Pueblo (not likely to happen)
          5) Mesa loses 1 of last 2 (least likely to happen)

          OR

          1) Midwestern loses final two games and Commerce gets in by earned access (Top 9)
          Really unsure about how this will go. Western beat Highlands at home by 7, Pueblo lost on the road to Highlands by 7. Western beat Fort Lewis at home 42-0, Pueblo beat them on the road 73-0. Western beat Mesa 23-9 at home, Pueblo beat them 19-13 at home. Western beat Chadron at home 23-10, Pueblo beat them on the road 42-17.

          Lamphere is back at QB for Pueblo (he has missed most of the season and only attempted 58 passes to this point), if he stays healthy they have a chance to win their last 2 games.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Buffalo/Islander Alum View Post

            Yeah looking at it Commerce needs these things to happen while winning out.

            1) Bemidji State loses to Northern State
            2) Northern State loses to Minnesota-Duluth
            3) Minnesota-Duluth loses to Augustana
            4) Western Colorado loses to Pueblo (not likely to happen)
            5) Mesa loses 1 of last 2 (least likely to happen)

            OR

            1) Midwestern loses final two games and Commerce gets in by earned access (Top 9)
            I think a simpler path is for the 1 loss teams, Bemidji and Commerce to win out, and Mesa lose at least once in an upset. If those things happen then someone with 3 losses gets in.

            Things like Pueblo winning out certainly helps the Lions resume.

            Comment


            • #7
              I've got something put together where I can input hypothetical outcomes and see what everyone's numbers would look like. Here's an interesting scenario that seems plausible:

              * CSU Pueblo wins out, beating Mines and Western.
              * A&M Commerce wins out, beating Angelo.
              * Augie beats UMD, NSU beats BSU, and UMD beats NSU.
              * Favorites win all other games.

              The #1 spot would be a dead heat between Augustana and Midwestern State, with MSU having a better SOS but worse winning percentage, as well as more ranked wins but fewer wins over teams with a winning record. Central Washington and Colorado Mines would take spots 3 and 4, respectively.

              There would then be a logjam of five teams within 0.011 of each other in W%+SOS. Sorting out all the head-to-heads, Commerce comes out on top, presumably followed by Pueblo (outright RMAC champion in this scenario). That leaves only one spot for Mesa, Western, and Angelo... Western is definitely ahead of Mesa due to the head-to-head, but do they or Angelo get that last spot?

              Comment


              • #8
                So I'm guessing MSU is out of the POs even with a win next week. Do you guys agree?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by '89HOG View Post
                  So I'm guessing MSU is out of the POs even with a win next week. Do you guys agree?
                  No. They will be around top 8. I think some of the NSIC schools will knock each other off final weekend.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    1. Colorado Mines 7-1: WON
                    2. Augustana 8-1: LOST
                    3. Central Washington 5-1: WON
                    4. Midwestern State 6-1: LOST
                    5. Angelo State 7-2: WON
                    6. Western Colorado 8-1: WON
                    7. Bemidji State 7-2 : WON
                    8. Minnesota Duluth 7-2: WON
                    9. Colorado Mesa 6-2: WON
                    10. Northern State 7-2: LOST

                    Remaining 3 loss teams:
                    Northern State 7-3
                    Sioux Falls 7-3
                    UTPB 4-3

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Just a eyeball guess at Regional Rankings top 10 Monday:

                      1: Colorado Mines 8-1
                      2. Angelo State 8-2
                      3. Minnesota Duluth 8-2
                      4. Central Washington 6-1
                      5. Augustana 8-2
                      6. Bemidji State 8-2
                      7. Western Colorado 8-1
                      8. Colorado Mesa 7-2
                      9. Midwestern State 6-2
                      10. Northern State 7-3

                      Last edited by Buffalo/Islander Alum; 11-06-2021, 09:33 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Buffalo/Islander Alum View Post
                        Just a eyeball guess at Regional Rankings top 10 Monday:

                        1: Colorado Mines 8-1
                        2. Angelo State 8-2
                        3. Minnesota Duluth 8-2
                        4. Central Washington 6-1
                        5. Augustana 8-2
                        6. Bemidji State 8-2
                        7. Western Colorado 8-1
                        8. Colorado Mesa 7-2
                        9. Midwestern State 6-2
                        10. Northern State 7-3
                        I have TAMUC as being the best four loss team in the country.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Runnin' Cat View Post

                          I have TAMUC as being the best four loss team in the country.
                          You drank the Yellow Koolaid too, huh?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by ASUPops View Post

                            You drank the Yellow Koolaid too, huh?
                            Nope.

                            I was mocking.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by '89HOG View Post
                              So I'm guessing MSU is out of the POs even with a win next week. Do you guys agree?
                              It's kind of a waste to have MSU in the playoffs since they almost always lose in the first round.

                              Comment

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