SR4 Regional Discussion: Week 9: 10/26/24

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

I count 11 teams with 2 D2 losses or fewer that are still in the running for the playoffs.

We say good bye to Bemidji State after their third D2 loss.

In order of record, not a regional rankings guess:

1) Western Colorado (8-0)
2) Colorado State Pueblo (7-1)
3) Central Washington (6-1)
4) Augustana (6-1)
5) Western Oregon (5-1)
6) Sioux Falls (7-2)
7) Minnesota State (6-2)
8) Colorado Mines (6-2)
9) Wayne State (6-2)
10) Angelo State (6-2)
11) Colorado Mesa (6-2)

Games with playoff implications on 11/2:

LSC:
Central Washington (6-1) @ Angelo State (6-2) - Likely LSC Championship Game.

RMAC:
Colorado State Pueblo (7-1) @ Western Colorado (8-0) - Possible RMAC Championship Game.

NSIC:
Wayne State (6-2) @ Bemidji State (5-3) - Loss likely puts Wayne State out of playoffs and behind Bemidji for 3 loss playoff consideration.
Minnesota State (6-2) @ Northern State (5-4) - Northern State has won 5 games in a row.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

Raw Numbers Rankings from Inkblot 's site.

Augustana (SD)	NSIC	6-1	.531	6-1	2-0	1.388	2	26.857	1
Western Colorado	RMAC	8-0	.438	8-0	2-0	1.438	1	26.250	2
Minnesota State	NSIC	6-2	.585	6-2	2-2	1.335	5	26.250	2
Central Washington	LSC	6-1	.509	6-1	2-1	1.366	4	26.000	4
CSU Pueblo	RMAC	7-1	.492	7-0	3-1	1.367	3	25.375	5
Sioux Falls	NSIC	6-2	.524	6-2	3-1	1.274	7	24.750	6
Angelo State	LSC	6-2	.508	6-0	2-2	1.258	8	24.125	7
Colorado Mesa	RMAC	6-2	.498	6-2	2-2	1.248	9	24.000	8
Western Oregon	LSC	5-1	.443	5-1	1-1	1.277	6	23.833	9
Colorado Mines	RMAC	6-2	.497	6-2	1-2	1.247	10	23.500	10
Wayne State (NE)	NSIC	6-2	.481	6-2	0-2	1.231	11	23.500	10

[Turbonium]

Pueblo's SOS will jump these next 2 weeks. I don't see them winning in Gunnison though unless they get out of this mid-season funk they've been in. Maybe they got bored and were looking ahead with Western/Mines coming up in back to back games.

Mesa has the chance to really make things interesting if they're able to knock off Western. A real chance the RMAC could get three in this year... which likely means a first round match-up between two of em.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

I just thought of something looking at other regional standings and the possibility swapping teams between SR 3 to SR 4.

There is a possibility of Central Oklahoma winning out and hosting a game as well as Ouachita Baptist winning out and getting the top seed in SR3.

If things break out "perfect" and Angelo State wins out and makes the playoffs this could be a dark horse swap to avoid plane rides.

SR4 Matchup: Emporia St @ Colorado Pueblo (475 miles)
Emporia wins then they are still in range of remaining Colorado and Sioux Falls schools (404 miles) for second round matchups.

SR3 Matchup: Angelo State @ Central Oklahoma (387 miles)
If Angelo wins then they could travel next to Ouachita Baptist University which is "only" 512 miles away (waive plane ride for 12 miles over?)
Central Oklahoma wins they are only 330 miles away from Ouachita University.

Just putting this out there just in case anyone super important ever reads this board.

[cwfenn]

So much for me seeing that the rankings list would come out next week…here they are right now:

https://www.d2football.com/oct.-28-regional-rankings/

Seems like I need better sources too!

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

So much for me seeing that the rankings list would come out next week…here they are right now:

https://www.d2football.com/oct.-28-regional-rankings/

Seems like I need better sources too!

No surprises here.

[CWU Wildcat Nation]

Just the alphabetical ranking this week.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

Looking at other discussion boards, it looks like I have been sorting by the wrong metric. Here is the updated sort based on W%+SOS. This probably looks and feels more accurate.

Western Colorado	RMAC	8-0	.438	8-0	2-0	1.438	1	26.250	2	X
Augustana (SD)	NSIC	6-1	.531	6-1	2-0	1.388	2	26.857	1	X
CSU Pueblo	RMAC	7-1	.492	7-0	3-1	1.367	3	25.375	5	X
Central Washington	LSC	6-1	.509	6-1	2-1	1.366	4	26.000	4	X
Minnesota State	NSIC	6-2	.585	6-2	2-2	1.335	5	26.250	2	X
Western Oregon	LSC	5-1	.443	5-1	1-1	1.277	6	23.833	9	X
Sioux Falls	NSIC	6-2	.524	6-2	3-1	1.274	7	24.750	6	X
Angelo State	LSC	6-2	.508	6-0	2-2	1.258	8	24.125	7	X
Colorado Mesa	RMAC	6-2	.498	6-2	2-2	1.248	9	24.000	8	X
Colorado Mines	RMAC	6-2	.497	6-2	1-2	1.247	10	23.500	10	X
Wayne State (NE)	NSIC	6-2	.481	6-2	0-2	1.231	11	23.500	10

[cwfenn]

Pueblo's SOS will jump these next 2 weeks. I don't see them winning in Gunnison though unless they get out of this mid-season funk they've been in. Maybe they got bored and were looking ahead with Western/Mines coming up in back to back games.

Mesa has the chance to really make things interesting if they're able to knock off Western. A real chance the RMAC could get three in this year... which likely means a first round match-up between two of em.

Would be interesting if Mines is the odd team out.

[cwfenn]

Let’s say WOU finishes 7-2 and goes 1-1 against Angelo and CWU (not saying who they win or lose to between the two). Is it enough games to get in? Do they need to win out?

[Turbonium]

Would be interesting if Mines is the odd team out.

I think the most likely scenario is the RMAC end up with 2 teams in, Pueblo and Western. Pueblo loses @ Western but wins at home over Mines which knocks Mines out. Western wins out including a win over Mesa which sends the Mavs out of the playoff picture. Or...if Pueblo keeps playing like they have the past two weeks they lose to both Western and Mines and they watch the playoffs from home.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

Would be interesting if Mines is the odd team out.

Its looking more and more like thats going to happen.

Mines non-conference opponents (WT and Washburn) are 5-11 so no non con SOS favors there.

Even if they beat Pueblo I dont think they can get close enough to them in the regional rankings to be able to initiate any head to head positive flips.

To that point they would still have a Mesa head to head loss problem to overcome if Mesa wins out and if Western Colorado collapses that head to head is an issue as well.

There are going to be at least 3 new teams to the playoffs (UTPB, Bemidji, and Mines likely eliminated) with the possibility of 5 total (Central Washington and Mankato lose 1-2 more).

On the flip side of that coin for other teams beating Mines, this year those wins against Mines are likely to lose that shine as the season progresses.

[Buffalo/Islander Alum]

I think the most likely scenario is the RMAC end up with 2 teams in, Pueblo and Western. Pueblo loses @ Western but wins at home over Mines which knocks Mines out. Western wins out including a win over Mesa which sends the Mavs out of the playoff picture. Or...if Pueblo keeps playing like they have the past two weeks they lose to both Western and Mines and they watch the playoffs from home.

Agreed. I dont see a scenario Mines gets there unless Western and/or Mesa lose their last 3 games.

[WT_TKW]

I think the most likely scenario is the RMAC end up with 2 teams in, Pueblo and Western. Pueblo loses @ Western but wins at home over Mines which knocks Mines out. Western wins out including a win over Mesa which sends the Mavs out of the playoff picture. Or...if Pueblo keeps playing like they have the past two weeks they lose to both Western and Mines and they watch the playoffs from home.

Are you impacted from the floods in Valencia? I hope not, they look pretty scary.

[Turbonium]

Are you impacted from the floods in Valencia? I hope not, they look pretty scary.

I'm not, the city itself is pretty much fine. We got almost no rain here just high winds. Thirty minutes away though is really bad. Thanks for asking!