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SR 4 Early Postseason Projections

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  • SR 4 Early Postseason Projections

    Last edited by Twincitiesmav; 10-13-2019, 02:58 PM.

  • #2
    Good analysis. As you mention, a lot can change in the final five weeks, but I would expect the top seven to remain there.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by MStateMaverick View Post
      Good analysis. As you mention, a lot can change in the final five weeks, but I would expect the top seven to remain there.

      Comment


      • #4
        If tarleton beats Commerce and commerce wins out they will be 8-2 d2, i see that keeping them home..... and who you lost to is not a criteria.

        And Pueblo beat commerce.
        Last edited by Boohaha; 10-13-2019, 07:18 PM.
        I have fat thumbs sorry for typos!

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Boohaha View Post

          If tarleton beats Commerce and commerce wins out they will be 8-2 d2, i see that keeping them home..... and who you lost to is not a criteria.

          And Pueblo beat commerce.

          Comment


          • #6
            Seems like it will come down to Kato and Tarleton for the 1 seed. I think Mankato would have the the better resume but it will be close. Mankato schedule the rest of the way is pretty easy with the exception @USF.

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            • #7
              My contention is that at 8-2 commerce is in serious danger of getting left at home, and if they get in will probably be 7th. The only way they jump a 9-2 team is if either ENMU OR Angelo wins out with threir only losses being to Tarleron and Commerce and Commerce gets placed at 8th and gets jumped up due to H2H over them.

              As it is i think its a tall order for them to place a 8 win team ahead of a 9 win team. Last year Midwestern got left out, as did ENMU and Humbolt a couple years ago, with the understanding that they were behind 3 9-2 teams, Duluth at 7, Mesa at 8, Pueblo at 9. Rmac didnt have anyone else in PO's so pueblo jumped mesa due to h2h, and jumped Duluth to get the 7seed.

              History says commerce is going to need ALOT of help to get in the po's at this point.

              I would also not be suprised to see an 8-3 western oregon team make it in because the committee hates to leave out a conf.

              I have fat thumbs sorry for typos!

              Comment


              • #8
                did some digging
                Scenario

                In the lsc
                Tarleron wins out 10-0

                One of the 3 Eastern/Angelo/WT lose only to Commerce and Tarleton and beat the other 2.
                9-2

                Commerce wins out 8-2

                RMAC
                Mines wins out 11-0
                CSU P wins out 10-1
                Dixie only loses to Mines and Pueblo 9-2

                GNAC
                WOU loses vs MSU and Eastern 7-4 out, if they beat Midwestern or eastern and win out in conference watch out.

                NSIC
                Minn st. Wins out 11-0
                Bem st wins out 10-1
                Duluth Wins out 10-1
                Both have already played Min St and lost.

                Thats a possible 8 9 win or better teams in the region.

                Commerce if they font beat Tarleton need a load of help.

                1. WOU has to finish with 4 loses
                2. Dixie needs to lose twice more
                3. The nsic needs to beat up on each othe hard, Bem st and Duluth both need to lose at least once more one of them needs to lose twice.
                4. By the numbers, sos, win percentage, etc end up at 8 with the 9 win lsc team at 7 to jump them based on h2h.

                If we end up with 3 unbeatens, 3 10 win , and 2 9 win teams Commerce wont be the only team left watching. Likely the 9 win lsc team ends up at 7 with dixie behind them and Commerce behind those guys.
                I have fat thumbs sorry for typos!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Boohaha View Post
                  3. The nsic needs to beat up on each othe hard, Bem st and Duluth both need to lose at least once more one of them needs to lose twice.
                  NSIC: If it comes down to tie breakers in the NSIC- MSU beat UMD 52-7 in Mankato, UMD beat Bemidji 42-7 at Bemidji. Bemidji and MSU don't play each other. Of those three schools, on paper the hardest game for MSU is at USF. Bemidji hosts Winona this week, then goes to Concordia-St Paul. UMD plays at USF this week.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by laker View Post

                    NSIC: If it comes down to tie breakers in the NSIC- MSU beat UMD 52-7 in Mankato, UMD beat Bemidji 42-7 at Bemidji. Bemidji and MSU don't play each other. Of those three schools, on paper the hardest game for MSU is at USF. Bemidji hosts Winona this week, then goes to Concordia-St Paul. UMD plays at USF this week.
                    My bad, but i think you see where im comming from, the NSIC is getting 3 teams in unless one of those top 3 finds a away to go 2-2 to finish the season.
                    I have fat thumbs sorry for typos!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Boohaha View Post

                      My bad, but i think you see where im comming from, the NSIC is getting 3 teams in unless one of those top 3 finds a away to go 2-2 to finish the season.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Boohaha View Post

                        My bad, but i think you see where im comming from, the NSIC is getting 3 teams in unless one of those top 3 finds a away to go 2-2 to finish the season.
                        Oh yes- if they are all 10-1 it is possible. I'm just saying right now this is the way things look for the rest of the season. I've seen the selection committee do some crazy things before- that is why I'm glad that they added a 7th team. One year I think it was between USF and Harding as to who got in- they went against their guidelines and picked Harding that year. The next year they did the exact opposite. Tough to predict how they will decide. They do like to get from the conferences as even as they can.

                        Still plenty of time for upsets!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by laker View Post

                          Oh yes- if they are all 10-1 it is possible. I'm just saying right now this is the way things look for the rest of the season. I've seen the selection committee do some crazy things before- that is why I'm glad that they added a 7th team. One year I think it was between USF and Harding as to who got in- they went against their guidelines and picked Harding that year. The next year they did the exact opposite. Tough to predict how they will decide. They do like to get from the conferences as even as they can.

                          Still plenty of time for upsets!
                          Yea last year 9-2 s&t sat while an 8-3 team got seeded.

                          Azusa over midwestrrn also comes to mind.
                          I have fat thumbs sorry for typos!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Boohaha View Post

                            Yea last year 9-2 s&t sat while an 8-3 team got seeded.

                            Azusa over midwestrrn also comes to mind.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I just love how the RMAC gets bashed. OK how about this, CO Mines 11 - 0, Pueblo 10 - 1, Dixie St 9 - 2. BUT, if Dixie beats Mines then all 3 teams will be 10 - 1 going into the post season.

                              Comment

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