Who will win the Conference in 2026?

[Thunder]

I'm not entirely sure it's realistic, but the expectations for NSU is 8 or 9 wins this year. I do believe the program is in a good spot, but we need to get past 6 or 7 wins every season.

[vikingfaithful]

It's the time for optimism, as no games have been played. I'm high on Augustana, Stud quarterback Gunnar Hensley returns for his senior season, also the team is deep and will do much substituting to feed lot's of hungry players and keep team fresh. Augie recruits well in upper Midwest and beats MIAA in Nebraska, also gets excellent talent from the great states of Arizona and Texas.

[HardRockin'Nerd]

The injuries will continue to pile up this year because the HC and strength staff have no understanding of athlete recovery. They think they will "toughen" up players and instead of getting better, they will all be hurt.

This has me curious ngl, has the staff said stuff to that effect in media appearances or is this an insider take?

[SW_Mustang]

I'm hoping for two wins this year. Oh boy.

[TJE_]

I get commenting on NSU football, but at least do a little research before writing the defense off.

We're returning five All-Conference defensive players from a year ago, plus a 2024 All-Conference corner who lead the conference in interceptions that year. We have three linebackers who have earned All-Conference honors, an All-Conference safety, an All-Conference corner, and all conference defensive lineman who led the conference in sacks despite only playing about half the season last year.

The reason the defense struggled late last year is because nearly all of those All-Conference players were injured and out for the season. That's a pretty important piece of context.

And we have Jake Adams. He's the best defensive player in the NSIC and has a legitimate case as the best defensive players in all Division II football.

Did injuries hurt sure. But Sioux Falls put 42 on us our first game of the season, Duluth 31 and MSUM 48 (only starter out then was Kegan).

Agree on Guteirrez returning on DL but with Van Landingham graduating it will be tough for him to get pressure with no pressure in the middle from the DT and the other end. Not much experience outside of Guteirrez and zero depth

Jake is baller for sure. Only one guy though.

With no pressure on the QB I dont care how good a safety and the corner is, the secondary will struggle.

When the defense got shredded by Minot at the last home game, there were prominent alumni calling for Schmidt to be let go. 49 points at home when there was small chance you could make the playoffs was bad bad loss.

[TJE_]

The injuries will continue to pile up this year because the HC and strength staff have no understanding of athlete recovery. They think they will "toughen" up players and instead of getting better, they will all be hurt. The defense does have many talented second and third level players returning but their DT situation has been poorly restocked.

I have heard the complaint about recovery. More so from having physical practices the day before the game all season.

[Stanger86]

I'm hoping for two wins this year. Oh boy.

Wish I could predict an upset in there, but schedule-makers didn't do us any favors....I think 2 wins is a pretty reasonable expectation. I do have a couple games earmarked as potential upsets dependent on how the season opens, but definitely nothing I feel confident in at this point.

[Thunder]

Did injuries hurt sure. But Sioux Falls put 42 on us our first game of the season, Duluth 31 and MSUM 48 (only starter out then was Kegan).

Agree on Guteirrez returning on DL but with Van Landingham graduating it will be tough for him to get pressure with no pressure in the middle from the DT and the other end. Not much experience outside of Guteirrez and zero depth

Jake is baller for sure. Only one guy though.

With no pressure on the QB I dont care how good a safety and the corner is, the secondary will struggle.

When the defense got shredded by Minot at the last home game, there were prominent alumni calling for Schmidt to be let go. 49 points at home when there was small chance you could make the playoffs was bad bad loss.

I'll push back a little here. The USF game was a weird one. The offense and ST scored so quickly early in that game that the defense was on the field for like 45 minutes and just wore down. Duluth had one of the best QBs in the nation, and we won that game. There defense was hugely depleted against Moorhead (no Kegan, Adams, Gutierrez, and several other guys that maybe didn't start but played a lot) and they had the best QB in D2.

I have no real defense for the Minot game. NSU has had one absolute stinker against a team we should beat every year since Schmidt has arrived and that was the 2025 version. Minot has had his number the last few years for some reason. Also giving up 40 to Jamestown was bad, but that was a letdown game after any chance of playoffs had disappeared and the defense was in shambles at that point.

The staff could very well be to blame for the injuries, I'm sure there is just some bad luck in there too. As with all college sports now, we will need to learn the new players on the roster again this season. I also wish there was more continuity on the staff. Maybe that is another strike against Schmidt, but he is aggressively bringing in good, young coaches that move on to greener pastures. Like I said before, 8 or 9 wins is the expectation this season and anything less than that will have a lot of people calling for the eject button on Schmidt.

[SW_Mustang]

Wish I could predict an upset in there, but schedule-makers didn't do us any favors....I think 2 wins is a pretty reasonable expectation. I do have a couple games earmarked as potential upsets dependent on how the season opens, but definitely nothing I feel confident in at this point.

I know it's very unlikely but I always hold out a little hope that we find the right mix of guys and things just "mesh" and we end up getting a couple statement wins - and I mean that genuinely.

[Stanger86]

I know it's very unlikely but I always hold out a little hope that we find the right mix of guys and things just "mesh" and we end up getting a couple statement wins - and I mean that genuinely.

How we come out in the opener will tell us a lot. A convincing win will make me feel much better about those potential upsets. Edging them out, and 2 wins would become that best-case scenario.

[MrMustang]

Augustana

Bemidji

Concordia

Jamestown

Mary

UMD

MSU

MSU Moorhead

Minot

Northern

Sioux Falls

SMSU

Wayne

Winona

Week 1

@ Missouri Western -W

Vs Michigan Tech - L

Vs Quincy -W

@ Upper Iowa -L

@ Rocky Mountain -L

@ Slippery Rock - L

@ Colorado Mesa -W

Vs Northern Michigan - L

Vs Emporia State -L

Vs Chadron State -W

Vs Black Hills State - W

Vs Valley City State -W

@UNK -L

@ St. Thomas -L

Week 2

@ UMD - L

Vs SMSU -W

@ MSU Moorhead -W

Vs Sioux Falls -L

Vs MSU -L

Vs Augustana - W

@ Mary -W

Vs Concordia -L

Vs Wayne -L

Vs Winona -L

@ Jamestown -W

@ Bemidji - L

@ Minot -W

@ Northern -W

Week 3

Vs Minot -W

@ MSU - L

Vs Mary -W

@ Winona - L

@ Concordia -L

@ Wayne -W

Vs Bemidji -W

@ Sioux Falls -L

@ Augustana - L

@ SMSU -W

Vs MSU Moorhead -W

Vs Northern -L

Vs UMD -L

Vs Jamestown - W

Week 4

Vs MSU Moorhead - W

@ Concordia -L

Vs Bemidji -W

@ Wayne - L

Vs Sioux Falls -L

Vs Winona -W

Vs Northern -W

@ Augustana - L

Vs SMSU -W

@ MSU -L

@ Mary -W

@ Minot -L

Vs Jamestown -W

@ UMD -L

Week 5

@ Winona - L

Vs Minot -W

@ Jamestown -W

Vs Concordia -L

@ Northern -L

@ MSU Moorhead -W

@ Sioux Falls -W

Vs UMD -L

@ Bemidji - L

Vs Mary -W

Vs MSU -L

Vs Wayne -L

@ SMSU -W

Vs Augustana - W

Week 6

Vs Sioux Falls - W

@ Northern -L

@ MSU -L

@ Mary -W

Vs Jamestown - L

@ SMSU -W

Vs Concordia -W

@ Minot -W

Vs MSU Moorhead -L

Vs Bemidji - W

@ Augustana - L

Vs UMD -L

Vs Winona -W

@ Wayne -L

Week 7

@ Concordia -W

Vs Wayne -L

Vs Augustana - L

Vs Minot -W

@ MSU Moorhead -L

Vs Northern -W

@ Winona -L

Vs Mary -W

@ Jamestown -L

@ UMD -L

Vs SMSU -W

@ Sioux Falls -L

@ Bemidji - W

Vs MSU -W

Week 8

Vs SMSU - W

@ Jamestown -W

Vs Winona -L

Vs Bemidji -L

Vs UMD - L

@ Mary -W

Vs Wayne -W

Vs Northern - W

@ Sioux Falls -L

@ MSU Moorhead - L

Vs Minot -W

@ Augustana -L

@ MSU -L

@ Concordia -W

Week 9

@ Northern -W

Vs MSU Moorhead -W

@ Wayne -L

@ UMD -L

@ Minot -W

Vs Jamestown -W

@ SMSU -W

@ Bemidji - L

Vs Mary -L

Vs Augustana - L

@ Winona -L

Vs MSU - L

Vs Concordia -W

Vs Sioux Falls -W

Week 10

@ MSU - L

Vs UMD - L

Vs SMSU -W

Vs MSU Moorhead -L

@ Winona - L

@ Bemidji -W

Vs Augustana - W

@ Jamestown -W

Vs Northern -L

@ Minot -W

@ Wayne -W

@ Concordia - L

Vs Sioux Falls -L

Vs Mary -W

Week 11

Vs Wayne -W

@ Mary -W

@ Sioux Falls - L

@ Northern -L

Vs Bemidji -L

Vs Minot -W

@ MSU Moorhead -W

Vs MSU -L

@ UMD -L

Vs Jamestown -W

Vs Concordia -W

Vs Winona -L

@ Augustana -L

@ SMSU -W

My Predictions

8-3

5-6

6-5

2-9

1-10

10-1

10-1

4-7

1-10

6-5

8-3

1-10

6-5

8-3

This is very interesting. I iwill make my own predictions after using this info -- Thanks for the Cliff's notes!

[MrMustang]

I voted Mankato.

Think USF will be 2nd

In the North i think Duluth

i think there will be many upsets this year.

sneaky team - Wayne

[MrMustang]

I'm not entirely sure it's realistic, but the expectations for NSU is 8 or 9 wins this year. I do believe the program is in a good spot, but we need to get past 6 or 7 wins every season.

i see Northern as the best team to knock off UMD in the North

[Wisco G]

Hey everyone,

I’m new to the forum, the parent of an incoming freshman at Northern State and have been getting up to speed on the NSIC. I know this is a bit long, but here goes...

I like analytics, so I built a model to project the season. 2025 standings are the baseline, with adjustments for roster retention (including All-Conference selections and key contributors who played at least 50% of the games), player losses, Prep Redzone recruiting rankings, and strength of schedule with home-field and travel adjustments.

Transfers aren't included and recruiting classes aren’t factored as heavily as upperclassmen movement since true freshmen rarely make immediate impacts. I didn't include writeups on Minot State, UMary, Jamestown, and SMSU since my model projects them in the lower tier this season.

My top five rosters based on the formula:
Sioux Falls, Minnesota State, Minnesota Duluth, Northern State, Augustana

Roster rankings and projected standings aren't the same because SOS ultimately reshuffles a few teams. When I applied the SOS and ran the full schedule, the projected results looked like this:

At the top are UMD and USF. UMD pairs a top-two roster due to solid retention and average loss numbers, with a very favorable schedule that misses both MSU and USF. USF carries the strongest overall roster with minimal losses and draws the easiest SOS among top teams (hosts MSU/Moorhead, misses UMD/NSU).

Then I have MSU and NSU. MSU has a top-five roster with the strongest returning group despite losing some top talent. It’s basically "next man up" for them. They won’t face UMD and have some key games at home. NSU grades out well in my model because of solid overall retention despite some notable departures, along with a top-five recruiting class. That said, their schedule features tough road trips to UMD, MSU, and MSUM.

In the next tier are Augie and MSUM. Augie grades out with a top-five roster and should reload like MSU, but gets hit with a brutal SOS that forces them to play all the other top-half teams. MSUM falls to an average roster rating after notable departures, but they have some top-tier opponents at home, which helps.

In the middle of the pack are Bemidji State, Wayne State, Winona State, and Concordia-St. Paul. Bemidji has a low number of experienced returning players and lost a few All Conference guys, so they appear a bit thin. A favorable SOS should help them some. Wayne had a balanced offseason in terms of roster gains versus losses alongside an average schedule. Winona’s roster was fairly stable, but they had little All-Conference representation and face a gauntlet schedule playing six of my top seven. Finally, CSP comes in with a tough baseline and low recruit scores, but didn't lose much All-Conference talent, which softens the hit from significant player turnover.

While this is a long post, it’s very much a summary. I'm sure I've missed some things, especially with transfers, so I'd be interested to hear where people think the model is overrating or underrating a team.

[Thunder]

Hey everyone,

I’m new to the forum, the parent of an incoming freshman at Northern State and have been getting up to speed on the NSIC. I know this is a bit long, but here goes...

I like analytics, so I built a model to project the season. 2025 standings are the baseline, with adjustments for roster retention (including All-Conference selections and key contributors who played at least 50% of the games), player losses, Prep Redzone recruiting rankings, and strength of schedule with home-field and travel adjustments.

Transfers aren't included and recruiting classes aren’t factored as heavily as upperclassmen movement since true freshmen rarely make immediate impacts. I didn't include writeups on Minot State, UMary, Jamestown, and SMSU since my model projects them in the lower tier this season.

My top five rosters based on the formula:
Sioux Falls, Minnesota State, Minnesota Duluth, Northern State, Augustana

Roster rankings and projected standings aren't the same because SOS ultimately reshuffles a few teams. When I applied the SOS and ran the full schedule, the projected results looked like this:

At the top are UMD and USF. UMD pairs a top-two roster due to solid retention and average loss numbers, with a very favorable schedule that misses both MSU and USF. USF carries the strongest overall roster with minimal losses and draws the easiest SOS among top teams (hosts MSU/Moorhead, misses UMD/NSU).

Then I have MSU and NSU. MSU has a top-five roster with the strongest returning group despite losing some top talent. It’s basically "next man up" for them. They won’t face UMD and have some key games at home. NSU grades out well in my model because of solid overall retention despite some notable departures, along with a top-five recruiting class. That said, their schedule features tough road trips to UMD, MSU, and MSUM.

In the next tier are Augie and MSUM. Augie grades out with a top-five roster and should reload like MSU, but gets hit with a brutal SOS that forces them to play all the other top-half teams. MSUM falls to an average roster rating after notable departures, but they have some top-tier opponents at home, which helps.

In the middle of the pack are Bemidji State, Wayne State, Winona State, and Concordia-St. Paul. Bemidji has a low number of experienced returning players and lost a few All Conference guys, so they appear a bit thin. A favorable SOS should help them some. Wayne had a balanced offseason in terms of roster gains versus losses alongside an average schedule. Winona’s roster was fairly stable, but they had little All-Conference representation and face a gauntlet schedule playing six of my top seven. Finally, CSP comes in with a tough baseline and low recruit scores, but didn't lose much All-Conference talent, which softens the hit from significant player turnover.

While this is a long post, it’s very much a summary. I'm sure I've missed some things, especially with transfers, so I'd be interested to hear where people think the model is overrating or underrating a team.

Welcome to the board! The more the merrier! I think you will find a lot of agreement on USF, Mankato, Duluth, and Augie being the most talented rosters because, well, they almost always are. I would agree with you on Northern as well. The biggest question mark with Duluth will be replacing their tank of QB Walljasper. If the Bulldogs don't find a comparable replacement, I think Northern could win the North this year.