Regional rankings

[CSM alum 1993]

The first set of regional rankings is scheduled to be released next Monday (October 24)

Chuck Bitner - D2 National columnist - has a really good article clarifying the process, originally posted last season but updated with the dates for 2022:

https://www.d2football.com/d2-footba...-selection-qa/

[FortLewis4Lyfe]

Assuming they win out, do we think Mines snags the #2 seed in SR4?

[CSM alum 1993]

Assuming they win out, do we think Mines snags the #2 seed in SR4?

Possibly, but with help, CSM will probably hold a tie breaker with any 2 loss team in SR4 due to the SOS - their two losses were to D2 teams who will likely end the season 21-0. Sioux Falls (7-0) has the best chance to bump them for 2nd, and Augustana (6-1) could as well. Not seeing Kingsville (7-0) in the conversation since two of their wins were against D3 and NAIA, and the toughest part of their schedule is about to begin.

[Matt Witwicki]

Last year on our Sunday night show we spoke about the process (if interested)..and the first 5 mins kinda spell things out also.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=za7luE7rj38

This Sunday night our national show will speak to this process for 2022..and we will roll out the top 10 in order. Tune in if interested.

[GoneBlastin]

Yeah.... I think they are going to need a lot of help. Sioux Falls has Winona, Mankato and Wayne down the stretch and it's quite possible that two of those three make the playoffs. If Sioux falls wins out then I think they take the two seed. If they drop one of those, maybe. Two definitely. But I don't see that happening. Augie would still have something to say about it too. If they win out, and the only game that is in doubt on paper is the game against Duluth, then Mines doesn't jump them either. Kingsville has the best of the LSC ahead of them. So I could see a world where they drop 2-3 games. I think that realistically, the best we can hope for is 3rd but 4th is most likely. I see it shaking out like this:

1. Angelo
2. Sioux Falls
3. Augustana
4. Mines
5. Kingsville
6. Duluth/Bemidji
7.too much football to play (Wayne, Winona, Mankato, Duluth/Bemidji, CWU, and TAMU(?) in contention)

I think an interesting topic of discussion is whether SDSM sneaks in. Right now their PI puts them in the last spot, but their SOS (and thereby their PI) is going to take a hit as they face Fort Lewis, Adams and Chadron down the stretch. Given that, I think it is extremely unlikely but not impossible. BHSU, Western and CSUP are all down from 15-17 respectively. Again BHSU and Western are both going to take a hit by playing FLC and Adams. CSUP still has to play both South Dakota schools so has an opportunity to move up the rankings with wins over better opponents. I think it could come down to whether the NSIC teams take turns beating each other up and drop games.

Here is Inkblots website that has the numbers: https://inkblotsports.com/d2stats/2223/mfb/sr4.html

And here is the NCAA documents on the process. Check out the Bracketing initiative, prechampionship manual, and Performance indicator links for the original sources: https://www.ncaa.org/sports/2013/11/...-football.aspx

[CSM alum 1993]

Yeah.... I think they are going to need a lot of help. Sioux Falls has Winona, Mankato and Wayne down the stretch and it's quite possible that two of those three make the playoffs. If Sioux falls wins out then I think they take the two seed. If they drop one of those, maybe. Two definitely. But I don't see that happening. Augie would still have something to say about it too. If they win out, and the only game that is in doubt on paper is the game against Duluth, then Mines doesn't jump them either. Kingsville has the best of the LSC ahead of them. So I could see a world where they drop 2-3 games. I think that realistically, the best we can hope for is 3rd but 4th is most likely. I see it shaking out like this:

1. Angelo
2. Sioux Falls
3. Augustana
4. Mines
5. Kingsville
6. Duluth/Bemidji
7.too much football to play (Wayne, Winona, Mankato, Duluth/Bemidji, CWU, and TAMU(?) in contention)

I think an interesting topic of discussion is whether SDSM sneaks in. Right now their PI puts them in the last spot, but their SOS (and thereby their PI) is going to take a hit as they face Fort Lewis, Adams and Chadron down the stretch. Given that, I think it is extremely unlikely but not impossible. BHSU, Western and CSUP are all down from 15-17 respectively. Again BHSU and Western are both going to take a hit by playing FLC and Adams. CSUP still has to play both South Dakota schools so has an opportunity to move up the rankings with wins over better opponents. I think it could come down to whether the NSIC teams take turns beating each other up and drop games.

Here is Inkblots website that has the numbers: https://inkblotsports.com/d2stats/2223/mfb/sr4.html

And here is the NCAA documents on the process. Check out the Bracketing initiative, prechampionship manual, and Performance indicator links for the original sources: https://www.ncaa.org/sports/2013/11/...-football.aspx

It certainly seems like the seeding for SR4 is going to be determined in the NSIC. If I didn't already have five live streams to keep track of every Saturday, I'd definitely be following SF and Augie especially the next few weeks.

[d2 football fan]

NSIC makes life hard - their isolated scheduling, but at that they have more teams than weeks of the season, so it's also imbalanced, isolated scheduling...

The big dogs and their upcoming schedules look like this:

Sioux Falls: 7-0
Winona St 5-2
Minnesota St 5-2
Wayne St 5-2
Upper Iowa 0-7

They play some potentially tough games. Their games against upper teams in the conference have been very tight so far (7 pts w/ Augie and 3 pts w/ Duluth). But, if they win out, they likely claim the #2, at worst. It gets really confusing if they lose one, depending on who they would lose to.

Augustana: 6-1 (loss to Sioux Falls 24-31)
Minnesota St 5-2
Winona St 5-2
Minnesota Duluth 5-2
SW Minnesota 4-3

If they win out, they would be hard to put Mines in front of, and would likely be #3.

All at 5-2 (and remaining games):
Minnesota St (Augustana, Sioux Falls, SW Minnesota, Winona St). If they win out, they are in - somewhere in the field
Bemidji St (Minnesota Duluth, SW Minnesota, Northern St, Mary). They have won 5 straight, but have limited upside with their remaining schedule. Two losses by total of 4 points.
Minnesota Duluth (Bemidji St, Minot, Augustana, Northern St). If they win out, they have a good case as well. Losses to SF by 3 and MN St by 7.
Winona St (Sioux Falls, Augustana, Upper Iowa, Minnesota St). I mean, if they win out, they at least replace Augie, I think?!? Worst losses of the group, to Bemidji by 10 and Northern St by 21.

Lots of big games to play with this group. Likely at least 3 get in, but it has the potential to be a really jumbled mess with the right (or wrong) outcomes in all of these head to head matchups.


Lone Star still may have a thing or two to say as well.

I feel like Angelo is a lock, even with a loss (which would only change their seeding)

If Kingsville wins out, they will be in, as they will get wins over Angelo and Central Washington along the way. My question is what happens if they only lose a competitive game to
Angelo? They would be a one loss team to a great team. They'd have to be in, right?

Further, if Central Washington wins out, they would have wins over Kingsville and Angelo. I think those additions would get them serious consideration for the field, even with their head scratching loss to W Oregon.


RMAC

Mines is in if they win out, only question will revolve around seeding. But, they are likely out with a 3rd loss, imo.

BHSU would likely be in if they win out, with wins over Mines and CSUP, and that would likely knock a 3-loss Mines out

CSUP has to win out and I still think it is unlikely, given that they have 3 losses already and no really impressive wins (Midwestern St is currently 3-4)

SDM has 3 losses and 3 really weak opponents left on the schedule. Total chaos would need to transpire with them winning out to even sniff the 7th seed.


Breakdown likely looks like:

NSIC 3-4 teams (Sioux Falls, Augie, and then the mish mash of 5-2 teams fighting it out)
LSC 1-2 teams (Angelo and winner of CWA / Kingsville)
RMAC 1 team (MAYYYYYYBE a 2nd team, which would likely have to be CSUP with every card falling the right way)

The end of the regular season is quickly approaching, but there are still so many potential outcomes for this region...

[FortLewis4Lyfe]

Huge losses for Augustana and Sioux Falls (and likely loss by Kingsville)!! Looking like it will be a close race for the #2 seed between Mines, Sioux Falls, and Kingsville.

[GoneBlastin]

Huge losses for Augustana and Sioux Falls (and likely loss by Kingsville)!! Looking like it will be a close race for the #2 seed between Mines, Sioux Falls, and Kingsville.

Yeah! A little of that needed chaos happened today. Excitement down the stretch!

[d2 football fan]

Update after games

Sioux Falls now 7-1
Augustana now 6-2
Bemidji St now 6-2
Winona St now 6-2
Minnesota St now 6-2
Wayne St now 6-2

Mines now 6-2
Western CO now 5-3 (4-1 in conference and still has Mines, Adams and Durango High School)
CSUP now 5-3 (need to be big Midwestern St fans, who won this week and still has Kingsville and Angelo on their schedule)

Angelo St now 8-0
A&M Kingsville now 7-1
WT A&M now 5-3 (weak remaining schedule, but if chaos continues above...)

Now Likely Out:
Minnesota Duluth
BHSU
C Washington

I'll update remaining schedules on Monday, but the world shrunk a lot in this region.

[GoneBlastin]

Taking a look at the PI after the games I think it is important to note how much of a disadvantage it is to play Fort Lewis. SD Mines beat them (by 4 TDs but margin is not part of the equation) and dropped 7 spots in the rankings. For context Augustana, Sioux Falls and Kingsville all lost and stayed in the top 5. Yikes

[d2 football fan]

NSIC

Sioux Falls 7-1 (with a loss at Winona St 17-20)
vs. Minnesota St (6-2)
vs. Wayne St (6-2)
@ Upper Iowa (1-7)

Augustana 6-2 (losses vs SF 24-31 & Minnesota St 14-35)
@ Winona St (6-2)
vs. Minnesota Duluth (5-3)
@ SW Minnesota (4-4)

Minnesota St 6-2 (with losses to Winona St 14-38 & Augustana 27-31)
@ Sioux Falls (7-1)
vs SW Minnesota (4-4)
vs Winona St (6-2)

Bemidji St 6-2 (with losses to Minnesota St 34-37 & Augustana 29-30 in weeks 1 & 2)
@ SW Minnesota (4-4)
vs Northern St (5-3)
@ Mary (1-7)

Wayne St 6-2 (with losses to Winona St 14-38 & Augustana 27-31)
vs Upper Iowa (1-7)
@ Sioux Falls (7-1)
vs MSU Moorhead (4-4)

Winona St 6-2 (with losses to Bemidji St 24-34 & Northern St 21-42)
vs Augustana (6-2)
@ Upper Iowa (1-7)
@ Minnesota St (6-2)


RMAC

Colorado School of Mines 6-2 (with losses to GVSU 22-25 & Angelo St 27-30 in OT in weeks 1&2)
@ Western Colorado (5-3)
@ NMHU (3-4)
vs Fort Lewis (0-8)

Western Colorado 5-3 (with losses to WT A&M 6-44, UTPB 31-34 in OT & SD School of Mines 10-38)
vs Colorado School of Mines (6-2)
@ Fort Lewis (0-8)
vs Adams St (2-6)

Colorado St Pueblo 5-3 (with losses to GVSU 10-35, Western CO 10-17 & Colorado Mines 17-45)
@ Colorado Mesa (2-5)
vs SD School of Mines (4-3)
@ Black Hills State (5-3)


LSC

Angelo St 8-0
@ Simon Fraser (0-5)
vs Central Washington (4-3)
@ Midwestern St (4-4)

Texas A&M Kingsville 7-1 (with loss to Angelo St )
@ Central Washington (4-3)
vs Midwestern St (4-4)
vs W Oregon (4-4)

West Texas A&M 5-3 (with losses to TAM Kingsville 24-31, Angelo St 14-34 & W Oregon 13-27)
@ W New Mexico (3-4)
vs E New Mexico (2-6)
@ Simon Fraser (0-5)

[Ironlinks]

Watched Mankato dismantle Augie from the sidelines --- they are in BEAST MODE. They will beat USF (who may be without star RB), which makes Kato-Winona huge. Kato has a better offense, so they probably win out. USF will lose to Kato, which makes USF-Wayne huge. Augie will likely lose both Winona and Duluth, even with one win they have 3 Ls. Bemidji should win out. Again Winona-Kato looms large

[Brandon]

[FortLewis4Lyfe]

Mines will surely snag the #2 seed in SR4 unless something goes horribly awry. The final couple games in the NSIC will be very interesting to see unfold; such a tightly contested conference!