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  • #16
    Originally posted by FortLewis4Lyfe View Post
    Mines will surely snag the #2 seed in SR4 unless something goes horribly awry. The final couple games in the NSIC will be very interesting to see unfold; such a tightly contested conference!
    Agreed. Not seeing any scenario where CSM loses to either NHMU or Ft. Lewis. Their 2 losses are likely going to be to teams with a combined record of 21-0, giving them a tie breaker over any two loss teams from the NSIC or LSC. At this point I am curious to see if a second RMAC team will make it in. Saturday's game between SDSM and CSUP might have enormous implications.

    Comment


    • #17
      Today's rankings will be interesting- mostly to see how the NSIC gets sorted out. Here is what it looks like with two weeks to go:

      NSIC

      Bemidji State 7-2 - Northern St (6-3) @ Mary (2-7). Have beaten Winona & Duluth. Have lost to MN St & Augustana
      Minnesota St 7-2 - SW MN (4-5) vs Winona St (7.2). Have beaten Bemidji, Sioux Falls, Augustana, Duluth. Have lost to Wayne St, Northern St. (most wins within this group)
      Sioux Falls 7-2 - vs Wayne St (7-2) @ Upper Iowa (1-8). Have beaten Augustana, Duluth. Have lost to MN St, Wayne St.
      Wayne St 7-2 - @ Sioux Fall (7-2), vs MSU Moorhead (3-6). Have beaten MN St, Northern St. Have lost to Winona St, Augustana.
      Winona St 7-2 - @ Upper Iowa (1-8), @ MN St (7-2). Have beaten Sioux Falls, Wayne St. Have lost to Bemidji St, Northern St.
      Augustana 6-3 - vs UMD (6-3), @ SW MN St (4-5). Have beaten Bemidji St, Wayne St, Northern St. Have lost to MN St, Sioux Falls, Winona St. (most games within this group)
      MN Duluth 6-3 - @ Augustana (6-3), @ Northern St (6-3). Have beaten no one in this group. Have lost to Bemidji St, MN St, Sioux Falls.
      Northern St 6-3 - @ Bemidji St (7-2), vs Duluth (6-3). Have beaten MN St, Winona St. Have lost to Wayne St, Augustana.

      All teams within this group are 0.500 within this group, except MN St (4-2) and Duluth (0-3). That raises Mankato and drops Duluth, imo. Still lots of games between these teams.

      RMAC

      Colorado Mines 7-2 - @ NMHU (3-5), vs Durango (0-9). Undefeated in conference play.
      Colorado St Pueblo 6-3 - vs SDM (6-3), @ BHSU (6-3).
      SD Mines 6-3 - @ CSUP (6-3), vs Chadron (3-6)

      LSC

      Angelo St 9-0 - vs C Washington (5-3), @ Midwestern St (5-4). Should be region #1 seed, even with a loss.
      C Washington 5-3 - @ Angelo St (9-0), vs UTPB (4-5). Hard to get them in the field, but if they beat Angelo and coming off a win over Kingsville...
      Texas A&M Kingsville 7-2 - vs Midwestern St (5-4), vs W Oregon (4-5). Have lost the last two weeks to the teams listed ahead of them. Midwestern likely ends up with a losing record so not much help left on the schedule...

      If I were picking today (based on eyeball test, not official numbers):
      #1 Angelo St
      #2 Colorado Mines
      #3 Minnesota St
      #4 Bemidji St
      #5 Wayne St
      #6 Winona St
      #7 Sioux Falls, winner of CSUP / SDM, either TA&M Kings / C Wash (if they beat Angelo).
      Last edited by d2 football fan; 10-31-2022, 02:02 PM.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by CSM alum 1993 View Post

        Agreed. Not seeing any scenario where CSM loses to either NHMU or Ft. Lewis. Their 2 losses are likely going to be to teams with a combined record of 21-0, giving them a tie breaker over any two loss teams from the NSIC or LSC. At this point I am curious to see if a second RMAC team will make it in. Saturday's game between SDSM and CSUP might have enormous implications.
        I think your right about that game. Could a 3 loss SDSM team sneak in if they win out?

        Comment


        • #19
          How I see it from a NSIC point of view:

          Wayne wins outs and finishes 9-2. Mankato beats Winona (not enough offense to stay with Kato) and Bemidji wins out. Wayne, Mankato and BSU all finish 9-2
          Wayne has Mankato head to head. Wayne and BSU have a common opponent – Mankato. Wayne beat Mankato and Mankato beat BSU.

          Wayne State NSIC Champs


          Player of the Year: Nick Bohn (beat Ekern head to head, although Ekern may be playing the best ball right now)

          7-2 Teams remaining games:

          BSU Predicted Finish 9-2
          Northern (W) Mary (W)

          Mankato Predicted Finish 9-2
          SMSU (W) Winona (W)

          Wayne State Predicted Finish 9-2
          USF (W) MSU-Moorhead (W)

          Sioux Falls Predicted Finish 8-3
          Wayne (L) UIU (W)

          Winona Predicted Finish 8-3
          UIU (W) Mankato (L)

          NSIC will probably get 3 in the playoffs and under this scenario Wayne would probably be a 3rd seed, Mankato 4th seed and BSU 6th seed.
          Way to early regional ranking prediction:
          1 Angelo State
          2 Colorado Mines
          3 Wayne
          4 Mankato
          5 Texas a&m Kingsville
          6 BSU
          7 Colorado Pueblo or Winona ?????

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Ironlinks View Post
            How I see it from a NSIC point of view:

            Wayne wins outs and finishes 9-2. Mankato beats Winona (not enough offense to stay with Kato) and Bemidji wins out. Wayne, Mankato and BSU all finish 9-2
            Wayne has Mankato head to head. Wayne and BSU have a common opponent – Mankato. Wayne beat Mankato and Mankato beat BSU.

            Wayne State NSIC Champs

            I don't know how the NSIC determines a champion if there are ties... so I can't speak to that.

            But, for seeding for the playoffs, Mankato has way more wins >.500. I think the head to head can be a tie-breaker if it's close in the actual rankings. In this case, I think Mankato will have a clear edge and get the higher seed... assuming both win out.

            I certainly think there is potential for a 4th NSIC team, depending on who wins / loses the last couple of weeks. The other conferences have some iffy alternatives to pick from.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by BHer View Post

              I think your right about that game. Could a 3 loss SDSM team sneak in if they win out?
              I think they can, but they will need some help from the NSIC, and maybe from Kingsville.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Ironlinks View Post
                How I see it from a NSIC point of view:

                Wayne wins outs and finishes 9-2. Mankato beats Winona (not enough offense to stay with Kato) and Bemidji wins out. Wayne, Mankato and BSU all finish 9-2
                Wayne has Mankato head to head. Wayne and BSU have a common opponent – Mankato. Wayne beat Mankato and Mankato beat BSU.

                Wayne State NSIC Champs


                Player of the Year: Nick Bohn (beat Ekern head to head, although Ekern may be playing the best ball right now)

                7-2 Teams remaining games:

                BSU Predicted Finish 9-2
                Northern (W) Mary (W)

                Mankato Predicted Finish 9-2
                SMSU (W) Winona (W)

                Wayne State Predicted Finish 9-2
                USF (W) MSU-Moorhead (W)

                Sioux Falls Predicted Finish 8-3
                Wayne (L) UIU (W)

                Winona Predicted Finish 8-3
                UIU (W) Mankato (L)

                NSIC will probably get 3 in the playoffs and under this scenario Wayne would probably be a 3rd seed, Mankato 4th seed and BSU 6th seed.
                Way to early regional ranking prediction:
                1 Angelo State
                2 Colorado Mines
                3 Wayne
                4 Mankato
                5 Texas a&m Kingsville
                6 BSU
                7 Colorado Pueblo or Winona ?????
                I agree with you except for what d2fan pointed out. I don’t see the head to head overruling SOS and record vs 500 that Mankato has put together. I would flip flop Wayne and Mankato. That likely means Mines sees Pueblo or Kingsville. If Pueblo makes it it will be Pueblo since Kingsville would jump on a plane regardless of who they play. Then the NSIC teams would play each other too. That kinda sucks. Even if Sioux Falls beats Wayne and jumps into the group the scenario is likely the same. Lots of intraconference games week one.

                Comment


                • #23
                  As I wrote this on the NSIC site, someone said Winona is 4-0 in in the South Division and Wayne is 3-2. So technically, if Winona only wins one more game the will be 5-1 in the South and Mankato would be 5-1 in the South with head to head vs Winona. In the overall conference, Wayne and Mankato would be 9-2 and Wayne has them head to head.

                  However that is all a hill of beans for the regional committee. Wayne and Mankato with the silo schedule should be VERY near .500 SOS

                  So,

                  here is what is on the D2football.com site (it mentions head to head, which would put Wayne over Mankato):

                  "Q: Assuming a lot of teams meet the qualifying standards, how are the top 7 determined?

                  A: There is a set of required selection criteria applied to compare the eligible teams. The regional selection committees apply the following criteria in no particular order:
                  • In region winning percentage
                  • Winning percentage against Division II opponents
                  • Strength of schedule against Division II opponents
                  • Head-to-head competition
                  • Results against Division II common opponents"


                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Ironlinks View Post
                    As I wrote this on the NSIC site, someone said Winona is 4-0 in in the South Division and Wayne is 3-2. So technically, if Winona only wins one more game the will be 5-1 in the South and Mankato would be 5-1 in the South with head to head vs Winona. In the overall conference, Wayne and Mankato would be 9-2 and Wayne has them head to head.

                    However that is all a hill of beans for the regional committee. Wayne and Mankato with the silo schedule should be VERY near .500 SOS

                    So,

                    here is what is on the D2football.com site (it mentions head to head, which would put Wayne over Mankato):

                    "Q: Assuming a lot of teams meet the qualifying standards, how are the top 7 determined?

                    A: There is a set of required selection criteria applied to compare the eligible teams. The regional selection committees apply the following criteria in no particular order:
                    • In region winning percentage
                    • Winning percentage against Division II opponents
                    • Strength of schedule against Division II opponents
                    • Head-to-head competition
                    • Results against Division II common opponents"

                    Not all silo schedules are created equally. The NSIC has more than 12 teams, meaning they don't all just play each other once. There are more teams and so it is an imbalanced silo schedule. Mankato has played way more teams with winning records - and won most of those games - and will get a bump. That's why Mankato is two slots ahead of Wayne in the current regional rankings.

                    Comment

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