As I said at the top of the column, my predicitions this year have been about as accurate as the meterologist guessing at weather, well, here's to hoping that week five can be the point where I start to turn it around.

Yesterday I picked Concordia to beat Augustana, St. Cloud State over Northern, and I picked Bemidji State to take care of Upper Iowa, that leaves four games left to look at.

Let's start with what might be the game of the week in the Northern Sun, Winona State at Minnesota State.

Winona State (3-1) at Minnesota State (3-1)
Last Year: 43-21, Winona State

The Warriors rolled up the points and the yards last week over Upper Iowa, posting conference highs in points scored (72) and yards gained (677). Let's face it, its not everyday when you can run for 300 yards and throw for 300 yards in the same game, and that's exactly what happened on Saturday.

Many things have to fall into place for that to happen, first the defense needs to get blown off the ball, which happened, but also it requires nearly perfect execution offensively, and considering as a team the Warriors averaged 9 yards per rush, and Warrior quarterbacks finished 16/26 for 301-yards and a touchdown passing, I'd have to say that's about as perfect execution as you can get. Add to it that Winona was 8/11 on third down and you have an offensive unit that could teach the Minnesota Vikings a thing or two about finishing out games.

If it was just that game, you could say well it was against Upper Iowa, but then you'd be forgetting about what the Warrior offense did in the second half against St. Cloud State too, in all, over the last six quarters the Warriors have scored an eyepopping 89-points.

No doubt, that stat, has Maverick Coach Todd Hoffner looking real seriously at this weeks meeting between the two clubs. And there's certainly something to be concerned about there after giving up 34-points to Concordia last week, in fact, the Mavericks were outgained yardage wise in the game. Want to more that should concern Hoffner, look back to last year's loss to the Warriors, they ran for 251 yards against the Maverick defense, including 148 from Rayon Simmonds.

Now the thing about most of those yards last week by Concordia, they came after the game was decided, which was done in the first half. In fact, the Mavericks were up 41-0 on the Golden Bears in the FIRST HALF.

If the Warriors want to win and keep a share of that lead in the NSIC South, they are going to have to stop a dangerous Maverick running game that features Andy Pfieffer, a redshirt freshman that ran for 2 of seven rushing touchdowns last week in their win over Concordia. They are also going to have to find a way to consistently cnvert on third down against a defense that is allowing opponents to convert roughly 34-percent of the time.

Let's face it, this is a huge game for Winona, everyone knows that they love nothing more than to beat the Mavericks in football in Mankato. A win certainly puts them in serious talk about the playoffs, but I think a win for the Mavericks does the same thing for them, and with Augustana out of the picture the winner could put them in the drivers seat in the NSIC South Division.

I am going to take the Mavericks in what should be a ground and pound football game.

Extra Point: The two teams combined for 13-rushing touchdowns last week.


Southwest Minnesota State (1-3) at Wayne State (3-1)
Last Year: 38-20, Wayne State

We'll stay in the NSIC South Division where all of a sudden the Wayne State Wildcats have won three straight games, and are looking poised to make a run after a rough start to the season.

I was the first to say it, even after their win over Minnesota Crookston, Wayne State looked like they were in a lot of trouble after giving up over 800 yards on the ground in the first two weeks of the season.

But youth on the defensive side of the ball has made some big steps the last few weeks, and Coach Dan McLaughlin admits the win over Duluth has done a ton for the Wildcats in the confidence standpoint. I think the Wildcats are on the cusp of being really good.

Consider that linebackers Jared Curry who leads the team in sacks with three is a redshirt freshman. Linebacker Nick Monzu who leads the team in tackles with 33 is also, you guessed it a redshirt freshman. And strong safety Austin Pomaizl who is second on the team in tackles with 30, is just a sophomore, all of a sudden you have a young and talented defense.

To back that up, Wayne's defensive unit has forced 14 turnovers this season, a season high in the Northern Sun, they have a conference leading +9 turnover margin, and since the first two weeks, Wayne State hasn't allowed a team to rush for more than 100 yards against them.

Add to their stifiling defense the last two weeks, the Wildcats also have the most dangerous special teams unit in the Northern Sun, I mean what else do you call a special teams unit that has scored touchdowns in all four games this season--personally I call that unit a difference maker, just as Minnesota Duluth.

The test against Southwest will be a different one, McLaughlin called Mustang quarterback Tyler Peschong one of the best quarterbacks in the Northern
Sun, backed up by the fact that Peschong is second in the Northern Sun in passing yards with 1,005 through four games.

But I think the Mustangs are going to have to run the ball more if they want to win NSIC football games, Southwest needs to find a way to keep control of the ball, because right now their defense has struggled to stop anyone as they have dropped to dead last in the Northern Sun in total defense, and second to last in the conference giving up 38.4 points a game.

Southwest hasn't beaten Wayne State since 2004, I really don't see any way to pick the Mustangs to change that on Saturday, I will take Wayne to get the victory and their winning streak to extend to four games.

Extra Point: It looks like Nate Most will make his second career start at quarterback for Wayne. Evan Johnson will be available though, but is not 100-percent.



MSU Moorhead (2-2) at Minnesota Duluth (3-1)
Last Year: 56-7, Minnesota Duluth

A fumble at the two yard line in overtime perserved a win for Minnesota State Moorhead, who beat Minnesota Crookston last week 29-22. The win for the Dragons is the first Northern Sun win for Steve Lacqua.

The attitude around the Dragon football team might be starting to change. Right now they find themselves about seventh in total offense in the Northern Sun, which is a big step in the right direction for a team that has struggled to consistently move the football.

Defensivey though the Dragons have struggled. Especially against the run, they are ranked last in the Northern Sun against the run, even with Jeff Schuette's 16 tackles last week, the Dragons gave up 237 yards to Richard Haley and Minnesota Crookston's ground attack. That will be a problem against the Bulldogs.

Last week the Bulldogs put up nearly 200 yards on the ground against a very tough Bemidji State defense. Austin Sikorski and Brian Lucas continue to lead the Bulldogs on the ground, and while neither appears to be what the Bulldogs lost, they still have been very effective averaging over 4-yards a carry.

The guy the Bulldogs need to get going is Chace Vogler, he threw for 199 yards last week, but when he was in his first year as a starter, what made Vogler so dangerous was his ability to beat you in different ways, including with his feet, he was by far the most dangerous quarterback with his legs. So far this year Vogler through four games has rushed for just 122-yards, he's one guy I would like to see them get going.

This week isn't one though where the Bulldogs will have to do a ton of extra things to get going, look for the Bulldogs to win this one handily over Minnesota State Moorhead.


Mary (2-2) at Minnesota Crookston (1-3)
Last Year: 48-0, Mary

Trying to figure the University of Mary out this year has been a little of a Dr. Jeckyl-Mr. Hyde act. First, the Marauders stun everyone with an upset win over Chadron State. Then the Marauders go on the road and lose a shootout to Southwest, only to return home and beat Augustana 10-0.

Then last week they got beat up by a good St. Cloud State team, so it is important for the Marauders to regain the form they have had in weeks one and three, only this time they have to find a way to win on the road.

Just so everyone knows, Minnesota Crookston can run the ball. Godlen Eagle running back Richard Haley was the NSIC Offensive Player of the Week last week as he rushed for 237 against Minnesota State Moorhead. It was the second time Haley has been over 200 yards in a single game on the season. Haley by far and away the leading rusher in the Northern Sun, having rushed for 704 yards already on the season.

If you were going to pick an upset this might be the game to do it, Minnesota Crookston leads the conference in rushing yards per game, a lot of that as we mentioned is Haley, but also Aj Barge has been able to do some damage on the ground as well, and Keith McBride is capable when asked to run the ball. Compounding the problem, the University of Mary has been allowing nearly 200 yards a game on the ground, and rank near the bottom of the Northern Sun in stopping the run, that could be trouble.

The Marauders will have to do a better job against the run this week than last week against St. Cloud who rand for 356 yards against them, but I expect them to go on the road and win on Saturday.