Every week is critical in college football, but as we dive into the second half of the season, things are about to get much more intense. Here is a look behind the numbers as we count down to week six…

6 – weeks of games so far, which takes us past the mid-point of the season, if you can believe that.
5 – consecutive weeks of divisional action between now and November 16
4 – number of total touchdowns scored by Millersville this season
3 – teams hoping to stay perfect this season (Bloom, IUP, WCU)
2 – huge match ups with major implications on divisional standings (IUP-Rock, ESU-WCU)
1 – rivalry game that is unmatched by any other in the PSAC

Here is the slate for this weekend.

Edinboro (3-2, 1-1) at Gannon (3-2, 2-0) 12:00

Gannon was one of the most pleasant surprises in the PSAC in the first month of the season. The Golden Knights played exceptional offense and enough defense to claim three wins in the first four games and get themselves to the top of the West division standings. However, they were set back last weekend by a stingy Bloomsburg defense that allowed only 276 total yards and 14 points. The Knights will attempt to get back on track against an Edinboro squad that has won its last two games.

The Fighting Scots have gotten by for the last two weeks without Cody Harris. His primary replacement, John Girvin, has three games worth of experience now and has been serviceable. However, against Seton Hill and Lock Haven, victory did not depend on the quarterback making plays. In this week’s match up with Gannon, Girvin will be under a lot more pressure to make plays for his team.

Gannon’s offense had it’s pride wounded a little bit last week and I think they will come out ready to re-establish themselves and gain back some momentum. Edinboro’s defense has stepped up since the Bloomsburg game, but I think their numbers are somewhat skewed by the bad weather that impacted week three and the bad opponents they faced in weeks four and five. I think Gannon’s balance of rushing and passing will be tough for Edinboro to handle.

The Fighting Scots put up a good fight, but Gannon gets back on track.

Gannon 41 Edinboro 24

Shippensburg (3-2, 2-0) at Lock Haven (2-3, 1-1) 12:00

Shippensburg enters week six looking for a fourth straight win, and hoping to stay unbeaten in East division play. After a 2-1 start, Lock Haven has lost their last two games, both on the road.

This will be another good measuring stick game for the Bald Eagles to gauge their improvement, but it will take a very sloppy performance from Ship to keep LHU in the ball game. I don’t see that happening. The Red Raiders have won three in a row and should continue to build momentum this week at The Haven. They’ve put the 0-2 start behind them and now have a great opportunity to get to 3-0 in the East division. The Lock Haven passing defense has been performing very well (140 yards per game and only 6 TDs) and if they are going to have any chance this week, they will need a big day. The Raiders’ passing attack has hit its stride in the last couple of weeks and has steadily climbed the stat sheet to number two in the PSAC with 328 ypg.

Ship’s defense has also been steadily improving. They’ve wracked up 17 sacks, nearly half of them (8) belonging to All American DE Jake Metz. Lock Haven’s offense has its moments, but the offensive line is still very young, and will be challenged to keep Ship’s pass rushing ends out of the backfield.

Shippensburg 56 Lock Haven 16

Cheyney (0-5, 0-2) at Kutztown (0-5, 0-2) 1:05

Two 0-5 football teams facing off in this one, meaning that one team will finally put a check mark in the W column. There is no way it will be Cheyney. This Kutztown team has been through hell and heartache for five straight weeks. The five opponents they have faced have a combined record of 20-5, and two of them are ranked in both national polls. The Golden Bears suffered beatings against Cal and Slippery Rock, but extraordinary occurrences cost them the Clarion game, and they had shots to upset both Bloomsburg and West Chester.

This young Kutztown team has been through so much, and now they will finally meet up with a team that they know they can beat. They know they have more talent, they play more disciplined and they have a lot more going for them. Against Bloomsburg, the Bears sold out to stop the run and for the most part, they succeeded. They will do the same against Cheyney and the Wolves don’t have anything else to go to. The Wolves also don’t have enough quickness in the secondary to stop Kutztown’s bubble screens.
Kutztown will unleash half a season’s worth of frustration and get their first win of the season and the first for Drew Folmer as head coach.

Kutztown 56 Cheyney 6

Mercyhurst (2-3, 0-2) at Seton Hill (0-5, 0-2) 3:00

A week ago, Seton Hill scored more than 7 points in a game for the first time in month, with a 27 point performance at Shippensburg. That was the good news. The bad news was that they gave up 70+ points for the second time this year. Mercyhurst picked up win #2 with a second half explosion in their home rout of Cheyney.

Both teams are 0-2 in the division so one of them will break into the win column this weekend. That team will be Mercyhurst. Seton Hill had some positive takeaways from last week’s effort at Ship, but they are still not close enough in terms of talent to beat a decent team. The Griffins scored 27 points last week, but still had only 198 total yards of offense, and they gave up 686. Meryhurst isn’t terribly explosive on offense, but they can run and throw with equal effectiveness and I don’t think they’ll have any trouble doing whatever they want.

Mercyhurst 49 Seton Hill 13

Millersville (0-5, 0-2) at #11 Bloomsburg (5-0, 2-0) 3:30

Out of 162 ranked teams in Division II, Bloomsburg has the #2 rushing offense and Millersville has the #155 rushing defense. That should be all you need to know. I really don’t see any way Millersville can stay in this game. In the PSAC standings, they remain 16th in scoring offense and 16th in scoring defense. The Maruader offense has a total of four touchdowns this season. Four. Even Cheyney has twice that many. WV State is the only team in the country with fewer touchdowns scored (2). If the Huskies are focused and ready to execute, this should be ugly.

The game will be televised locally by Fox affiliate WOLF-TV Channel 56 out of Scranton.

Bloomsburg 59 Millersville 14

Clarion (3-2, 1-1) at California (3-2, 1-1) 3:30

Both of these teams started the season 3-0 but have lost their last two games. Clarion goes back on the road for the second straight game, after a lopsided loss at East Stroudsburg. The Golden Eagles dug themselves into a 35-7 hole at halftime and a second half rally was not enough to overcome the deficit. California lost a competitive contest at West Chester in the first career start for QB James Harris.

Clarion was torn apart by East Stroudsburg’s passing attack a week ago so watch for Cal to attack pretty aggressively. They have a lot of play makers at the receiver positions and if Harris continues to get more comfortable, the offense should pick up some momentum. The offensive line still needs improvement, and they will be challenged by Clarion’s front seven, which is a pretty physical group.

The Clarion offense will also face a significant challenge from Cal’s defense. Darrelle Carson is doing as much as can be expected of a redshirt freshman replacing a fifth year senior, but the efficiency of Clarion’s passing game has dropped off quite a bit. This should create some opportunities for Cal to be aggressive on defense and possibly create some turnovers.

If Cal is going get back to winning, a lot will depend on quarterback play because the running game just isn't there. Harris wasn’t stellar in his debut, but he minimized mistakes and threw a nice deep ball. I believe he earned at least another week as the starter and I expect him to be in the huddle for most of the game on Saturday. It will be interesting to watch how quickly Harris develops and becomes more comfortable in the system. This is his first season of football since 2009, but he is a very experienced athlete. He played three seasons of Division I baseball at Wake Forest before transferring to Cal for another shot at football. The coaches like his natural ability and his arm strength, and I would have to think that three years of Division I athletics have given him a lot of maturity and leadership skills.

The loser of this meeting will drop to .500 and will be out of the race for the West division and a post season invitation. I can’t see Cal being out of it this early in the season.

California 38 Clarion 20

East Stroudsburg (4-1, 1-1) at #19 West Chester (5-0, 2-0) 2:00

I had the opportunity to see both of these teams live last Saturday. West Chester prevailed in a tight battle with visiting California while East Stroudsburg was hitting on all cylinders in a dominating victory over Clarion. The two rivals will meet at Farrell Stadium on Saturday afternoon for pivotal East division match up. History favors West Chester during the Bill Zwaan era of this rivalry, but the teams have split the last four meetings. Both teams are the best they’ve been for at least a couple of years, so the fans in attendance should see a heck of game.

Offensively, the two teams are very similar. Neither unit faces the other on the field, but the comparisons are still noteworthy. Here is a snapshot of how the two offenses measure up, with PSAC rankings in parentheses:

Category: West Chester / East Stroudsburg
Scoring: 41.8 (4th) / 42.0 (3rd)
Total: 521 (4th) / 542 (2nd)
Rushing: 251 (2nd) / 229 (3rd)
Passing: 269 (6th) / 312 (4th)

Not much to differentiate there. I guess we’d better look at defense…

Category: West Chester / East Stroudsburg
Scoring: 22.0 (5th) / 19.2 (4th)
Total: 319 (3rd) / 317 (2nd)
Rushing: 80 (2nd) / 122 (5th)
Passing: 239 (10th) / 195 (4th)

Statistically, it’s a total toss up. The biggest liability on either side of the line of scrimmage is West Chester’s pass defense. This is not good for the Golden Rams because the ESU passing game is back to peak efficiency. The Warriors threw the ball all over Clarion last week, looking virtually unstoppable in the process. West Chester’s secondary has been a little shaky at times so they will have to be able to apply pressure to keep Soltes from getting through his progressions. However, it’s dangerous to take too many risks with blitz packages because the ESU ground game can be lethal as well.

As with any great offense, the best way West Chester can stop them is to keep the ball. Establishing the run will be key for Golden Rams. If they can move the ball on the ground with Rondell White, it open things up for the passing game. If they can’t they may be trouble. The Golden Rams struggled all day against Kutztown and it was largely due to KU’s run defense that held the Rams to just 51 yards on the ground. If the Warriors can do that, I think they will win. But shutting down the run won’t be easy for the Warriors, as long as QB Sean McCartney has a good outing for the Golden Rams.

I am going to pick West Chester in this game mostly because I think they are slightly more proven. I like what ESU has done this year, but I think West Chester stays perfect for the season. I’ve picked the Rams in all five games so far and they haven’t let me down. Same score as last week’s affair at Farrell…

West Chester 38 East Stroudsburg 31

PSAC Game of the Week – RIVALRY!!

#7 Indiana (5-0, 2-0) at Slippery Rock (4-1, 1-1) 2:00

If ESPN had a College Gameday show for Division II, it would descend on Slippery Rock University this Saturday. Valdosta State at West Alabama is a big one but that game is Thursday night. This PSAC tilt features a huge rivalry, and one the nation’s best offenses facing the nation’s best defense. IUP is a perfect 5-0 and Slippery Rock has a single blemish on their record, which they’ve work very hard to erase from their memories. The winner of this game becomes (or stays) the front runner to win the West, although Gannon still has a major say with their 2-0 divisional record.

Normally for the game of the week I itemize the tale of the tape, including PSAC rankings. The heck with that. We have to look at this from a national perspective.

Simply put, IUP has the best defense in the country. They are #1 in scoring defense, yielding 6.0 points per game and #1 in total defense, allowing just 213 yards per game. There are a couple of D3 teams that have better stats, but when you aggregate FBS, FCS and D2, IUP’s 6.0 ppg average is the best and only Michigan State is allowing fewer yards per game. Now, I will throw out the disclaimer that three of IUP’s five opponents are winless teams (Cheyney, Seton Hill, Millersville) and frankly, they are three of the worst teams in our region. But as the old saying goes, the numbers don’t lie.

If you think the numbers do lie, well then just be patient and see what happens on Saturday. We’ll find out one way or the other. Slippery Rock will attack the force we know as the IUP defense with one of the country’s best offenses. Nationally, The Rock is #4 in scoring offense (50.4 ppg), #4 in total offense (565 ypg) and #3 in passing offense (389ypg). The rushing attack is almost an afterthought, but 175ypg is a very nice compliment to the productive passing game.

So we have a massively intriguing strength on strength match up. I think Slippery Rock will have some success, but they won’t get anywhere near their 50 point average. They’re going to have to win the game with half that. When you a play a defensive power like IUP, nothing will come easily and you can’t count on anything. You have to be able to beat them with 24 points or less, because that is about the most any offense can expect to get. So if SRU can get to that number, can their defense come through?

That’s iffy. The Rock defense is allowing more than 31 points and 351 total yards per game. The encouraging thing is that they’re pretty tough against the run. However, IUP isn’t as much of a rushing team as you probably think they are. Last year they were very dependent on the run, but this year, they are actually averaging more yards per game in the air (204) than on the ground (203). Did you notice those numbers are only 1 yard apart? How is that for balance?

This is a super interesting match up. I’m very curious to see what Nigel Barksdale and the Rock offense can do against an elite defense. Conversely, can IUP live up to their own standards and shut down some of the PSAC’s best playmakers? I’m sure I’m not the only one that thinks this game looks, feels and smells a lot like last year’s PSAC Championship game. I went with the hot handed offense in that game, and although no two games are exactly the same, I am going with the better defense this time.

IUP 23 Slippery Rock 20

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