After this week, we'll have knocked at least one more team out of the playoff hunt, come one game closer to a possible playoff appearance for West Virginia Wesleyan, and possibly found out more decisively who holds down the cellar in the WVIAC.
Bowie State (4-4) at Shepherd (6-2)
This is the final game of a brutal six-game road trip for the Bulldogs, who have gone just 1-4 on this voyage so far. Clearly, someone in Bowie made a big mistake in putting the team's schedule together (don't worry, though: the basketball schedule looks much better). Bowie State has already lost (handily, I might add) to a WVIAC team in contention in Fairmont State on a Thursday night three weeks ago. What happened then? Turnovers were part of it. But overall, the offense just hasn't been that potent. Sure, Dominique Clifton Budd is a mobile quarterback, and that could test Shepherd's front four, but the Bulldogs just haven't been lighting up the scoreboard. The defensive front isn't that strong either with just ten sacks on the season. But don't sleep on the secondary, who have created plenty of turnovers all year.
Shepherd's defense looked just fine last week, especially against the run in a thrashing of West Virginia State that looked like many of the last 30 or so wins the Rams have had over the Yellow Jackets. Bobby Cooper does need better protection from his offensive line, so it's really a good thing he has shown solid tuck-and-run ability. The running game has been as successful as we expected, even if Tommy Addison hasn't had as many yards this season as he would have hoped.
Keep an eye on the third quarter in particular: Shepherd has outscored its opponents 108-20 on the year right after halftime. Even if things don't look pretty early on (not that I'd expect that), the Rams will right the ship without a problem. This game isn't the concern: the two big road games that follow, however, are.
Prediction: Shepherd 45, Bowie State 17
Seton Hill (0-8, 0-6) at West Liberty (1-7, 1-5)
Remember, West Liberty's special teams are the biggest reason why the Hilltoppers have a win, blocking a David Wissler field goal attempt and returning it 92 yards for the final score in their only win of the season. Last week, though, special teams were disastrous as a botched attempt to return a kickoff from the end zone led to essentially an onside kick touchdown for Charleston in a 35-24 win. Add in the 17 interceptions, -14 turnover margin for the year, and nearly nonexistent running game, and it's easy to see why West Liberty has struggled.
Seton Hill, meanwhile, must have taken my column two weeks ago (when I said they might not win a game the rest of the year) and put it on the bulletin board. Granted, they still haven't won yet, but they kept things a lot closer than most anyone expected against Fairmont State. Ryan Morris has definitely improved over the last few games, throwing for 343 yards last week in spite of the running game pretty much dying yet again. Jeorge Valdovinos continues to be a clear #1 receiver and will test West Liberty's secondary.
There are two teams that Seton Hill has never beaten: Charleston and West Liberty. Last year in Greensubrg, the Hilltoppers embarrassed the Griffins, hanging 82 points on the scoreboard as Zach Amedro officially set the record for most passing yards by a Division II quarterback. Most of these players remember that, and as they say, payback's a *****.
Prediction: Seton Hill 30, West Liberty 20
West Virginia State (1-6, 1-4) at #19 West Virginia Wesleyan (8-0, 5-0)
The Yellow Jackets have not been good on the road this season, and there's no reason to think that this game will be any different. Their defense has given up over 250 passing yards per game while the offensive line has been severly tested, yielding 83 tackles for loss.
Meanwhile, the Bobcats closed out their challenging three-game stretch in style, yielding a 20-7 lead after one quarter before bouncing back very nicely. There were two big keys that, should they continue, will bode them well come playoff time: Keith Dickens was able to get things going with the running game, and kicker Philip Warner stepped up, going 3/3 on field goals, including one from 40 yards out.
West Virginia Wesleyan simply has too much offense for West Virginia State to be able to keep up. Expect Adam Neugebauer, the best quarterback in the WVIAC, to throw for over 400 yards yet again.
Prediction: West Virginia Wesleyan 41, West Virginia State 19
Glenville State (4-4, 4-1) at Charleston (2-6, 2-3)
Let's not be too hard on Glenville State here. Darold Hughes is probably still not at 100%, yet what he has done the last two games is still very impressive. It would have been nice to get more action on offense from Jakhari Murphy, Kareem Alexander, and Antwan Stewart, but the defense was why the Pioneers lost. And even so, it's really that West Virginia Wesleyan's offense was just that much better. Linebacker Nate Ingersoll has been a stud in the middle of the Glenville State defense all year long, and with 15 total tackles, last week was no exception.
Charleston, despite the win, still looks like a one-dimensional team. And against bad teams, you can get away with that when your one dimension is runningback Jordan Roberts, a leading contender for best RB in the conference. With over 900 yards on the season, Roberts probably means more to his team than just about any other player in the WVIAC. Unfortunately, if Charleston can't clean up its penalty problems (15 last week, which makes me wonder about the Golden Eagles' discipline), they can't be competitive. Plus, the defense made things interesting, though: with ten minutes left, they started giving West Liberty plenty of time and room and made the score look closer than the game actually was.
Charleston probably will not be able to score 20 points all game. Glenville State wil. have at least 20 by halftime. You can guess how I think this one's going to go.
Prediction: Glenville State 31, Charleston 14
Game of the Week
Concord (4-3, 4-1) at Fairmont State (6-2, 3-2)
There are three big questions that I have coming into this game:
1. Having now had a few weeks off (and expected to play two weeks ago), will we see Brian Kennedy at runningback for Concord? He can be a huge difference maker if he's in the game and Chris Rodriguez is backing him up.
2. Is Fairmont State quarterback Logan Moore going to return to the form we saw from him earlier this season before his concussion three weeks ago against Bowie State? The Falcons may have won last week, but Moore's three interceptions are definitely uncharacteristic.
3. How will Concord's offensive line, possibly the best in the WVIAC, fare against Fairmont State's defensive front, whose 90 tackles for loss and 31 sacks make them the best in the conference? This is the matchup that will have the biggest impact on who wins and who loses.
For now, both of these teams have (slim) playoff hopes provided they win out and get some help and good luck. After this game, someone's playoff hopes will be done for good, and I'll be there in person to see it (the liveblog link will come a little later). Whoever can establish the run will win this game. That plays into the hands of Fairmont State, as Daniel Monroe has broken the 100 yard mark in each of the last four games and six times all season. Monroe should break the 1,000 yard mark for the season in this game, and if he is successful, he'll open up the passing game for Logan Moore. Kennedy can do the same for Zack Grossi, but I don't have the same confidence in the Mountain Lions after watching what Glenville State's defense was able to do. Something appears to be missing for Concord, and I don't mean Thomas Mayo. I just think they don't quite have enough to get the win.
Prediction: Fairmont State 26, Concord 21
Questions? Comments? Cheers? Jeers? Email me at [email protected], drop your comments in the box below, or hit me up on Twitter @Byko. And be sure to follow me this weekend as I hit the road for Fairmont.
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